Bet the Mortgage: Week 11, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Well, I took a shot with going big for one bet in Week 10–which promptly flopped. And, of course, since I played it relatively safe on the rest, my 2-2 finish resulted in a grand total of a $9 loss–definitely not breaking the bank this way.

Still, a $9 loss is better than dropping over a grand in smaller bites, which is what Andy pulled off with another 0-fer weekend, once again with his Thursday night massacre. I haven’t heard from him yet this week on bets, so maybe he’s finally going to keep his losing to Sunday’s.

This week, as Andy pointed out in our Week 11 picks, there are finally some great games–which can sometimes make for some tight lines. But not this week, it appears, as even the historic 9-0 vs 8-1 Chiefs vs. Broncos matchup features a line greater than 7 points–somewhat amazingly in favor of the one-loss team. Our Week 11 bets are below…

Andy’s Bets:

I realized while I was reading Tony’s bets last week that he was right – we’d been too conservative in our wagers to this point. Also, I got beat badly again last week. So I’m chasing lost bets – always a recommended activity. Nonetheless, with some real fake money on the line, here goes.

$750 – New Orleans (-3, -120) vs San Francisco – The Saints are 5-0 at home this season, winning the last four of those contests by 31, 18, 21 and 24 points. New Orleans has not given up more than 17 points all season in the Superdome (oddly enough, exactly 17 points in four of those five games). And something with San Francisco just doesn’t seem to be completely clicking right now. I’d prefer to not make a lot of -120 bets, but this one feels like a pretty good opportunity anyway.

$600 – Indianapolis (-3, Even) at Tennessee – I was going to avoid the Thursday night game this week. As Tony mentioned last week, my luck in these games has been less than stellar – the three-day rest period before the games likely having something to do with that (by the way, NFL, adding another Thursday game might be good for your pocketbook, but have some concern for the integrity of the game, you greedy pigs). But I’m shocked at this line. Tennessee lost its QB and a game last week to Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the week after the Colts’ two previous losses, they came back to win on the road in San Francisco and at home against Denver. The quality of competition for this week’s bounce back game is much less imposing than those opponents. Andrew Luck in a walk.

$500 – Denver (-9.5, +105) vs Kansas City – The Chiefs are not getting the respect they deserve for their 9-0 start. They are a very good team with a highly impressive defense. That said, I’m going to disrespect them a bit here. Most spreads have this at -8, 110, but the lines on yahoo from 5dimes.eu have it at this 9.5 number. And I think as long as Peyton Manning can stay upright, this is a 10 to 14 point win in Denver. If this game were at Arrowhead I don’t know that I’d make this bet, but I do think that despite the one loss, the Broncos are the better team.

$250 – Upset of the Week: Oakland (Moneyline +255) at Houston – The Texans have looked better since going to Case Keenum, but this team has been decimated by injuries in losing seven straight. So, on what planet does a team that has lost seven straight get to be a -310 on the moneyline? Oakland is far from great, but for the most part they’ve been pluckier than the Houston bunch. In a week when finding legit upsets where the underdogs aren’t that far from being the favorites, this sticks out to me as a game that could go either way. And in a close game, I’ll bet against Texans kicker Randy Bullock.

Tony’s Bets:

Last week’s single game big bet isn’t going to cut it. My goal now is to hit $20k or be broke by Week 14—and if I was in Vegas this week, I’d be playing parlays left and right, because I can’t lose it fast enough at the tables when I’m there—lots of games I’d be betting this weekend.

$1,000 – Philadelphia (-3.5, -105) vs. Washington  – I’m not sure I get this one at all. Nick Foles has been playing extremely well the last two weeks, and the Redskins are coming off a loss to one of the worst teams in the league. Yes, the Redskins had a couple of extra days off to prepare. Or to stew over the fact that they just got beat by the Minnesota Vikings. Finding it at -105 for the same line that several other sites have it at -110 is a bonus.

$750 – Oakland (+7, Even) at Houston – The biggest thing Houston has going for them in this game is the return of Gary Kubiak, returning Wade Phillips to the coordinator role he excels at, rather than the head coaching spot he clearly does not. I can’t trust the Raiders enough on the road to pick them to win, but I can trust the Texans to keep it close if they do pull out the win.

$750 – New England at Carolina Over 46.5 (-110) – The Panthers have won five straight, putting up at least 30 points in the first four of those games, before running into a real defense last week in San Francisco. After a clunker in week 5, the Patriots have put up at least 27 each week since, appearing to hit on all cylinders since the fragile and racially insensitive Rob Gronkowski came back, including putting up 55 in their last game against the Steelers. The Patriots do not have the 49ers defense, and while the Panthers defense is solid, they have not really faced an offense like the Patriots all season. This one hits 50 at least.

$250 – Upset of the Week: Kansas City (Moneyline +320) at Denver – The Moneyline is the one area I’d like to avoid this week, as I don’t see a lot of plays that I love. Even this pick, I don’t know that I believe in. But I’ve been saying the Chiefs were playing with fire for weeks, and they’ve managed to stay undefeated. At some point, I have to believe they will finally falter—but they’ve got some things going for them. Peyton Manning isn’t 100%, and the Broncos offensive line is beat up, which could give a big advantage to the Chiefs in pressuring him. And let’s not forget head coach Andy Reid’s impressive 13-1 record off the bye week. Yes, a lot of those were home wins, and yes, the Chiefs haven’t played anyone near the talent of the Broncos this season. But they’re undefeated, they’ve not given up more than 17 points in a game, and they’re paying +320 for the win.