Bet the Mortgage: Week 10, 2015 – Best Bets

Week nine wasn’t bad … at least compared with most other weeks so far this season.

Typically one of us goes 2-2 and makes about $22 while the other goes 1-3 or 0-3-1 and loses his shirt. Last week Andy had a season best 3-1 mark while Tony finished 2-2 – though he did lose a piece.

That does actually give Andy a 5-3 record the last two weeks and the remaining bankroll lead for the season as he tries to recover from a disastrous first seven weeks of betting. He at least appears to have prevented for another week some hypothetical muscle from breaking his imaginary legs.

Here are the standings so far:

And here are the bets:

Andy

I’m not going to pretend I’ve got this thing figured out by any stretch. My picks for week nine show that my bets probably only won because I got lucky. But nonetheless, I did give myself a bit more breathing room. I’ll bump things up a bit, but I’m still going to be a bit conservative. This season has been confusing in many ways.

$1,000 – Dallas (+1, even) at Tampa Bay – The Cowboys have lost six straight since the injury bug started to hit. But they’ve generally played some close games. Tampa may be getting a bit more competitive, but I think Dallas, seeing the light at the end of the tunnel that is Tony Romo’s looming return, is going to play with some desperation and win this game comfortably.

$1,000 – Green Bay (-13, +115) vs Detroit – This is a lot of points to give, but Detroit hasn’t won in Green Bay since about 1956 and the Packers are coming off two ugly losses. Back in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, I see Green Bay picking up where they left off during the furious rally at the end of the Carolina game while putting up about a 40-spot. Detroit, meanwhile, is one bad quarter away from packing it in for the season.

$1,000 – Jacksonville (+5.5, -110) at Baltimore – The Jaguars are not getting much respect from Vegas. But while they may not be winning many games, they are playing competitively in most. They kept the Jets close last week. I think they have a shot of going to Baltimore and actually winning this game. At worst, they play another tight game against the disappointing Ravens, who have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown in this game.

$400 – Arizona ($150 money line) at Seattle – It’s about time for the Seahawks to turn it on if they are going to make a run at a third consecutive Super Bowl. They’ve got a couple problems this year, though. For one, the offensive line is a mess. The Max Unger/Jimmy Graham trade has been a huge bust to this point. And secondly, the defense just seems to be missing something minus former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, who has turned a bad Atlanta team into a contender in just a season. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are loaded and looking strong. What better statement to make than going on the road and knocking off the division rival – a loss that would really dim Seattle’s chances of making the playoffs.

Tony

Yet another crappy week for my imaginary budget—thank God I don’t have a guy… or know a guy who has a guy, or I could be down some real money. And at least my DraftKings/FanDuel accounts finally are ticking slowly in the right direction. If my math is right (and there’s a good chance it’s not), then I’m officially under half of my original budget—which means it’s time to start REALLY swinging for the fences—my entire bankroll on the line.

$1,500 – Denver (-7, +110) vs Kansas City – The Denver defense is at home, facing a team without their top offensive weapon, and coming off an embarrassing loss. Missing their top CB may hurt, but their depth in the secondary is better than most, and if there’s a team where you don’t have to worry as much about their receivers, it’s Kansas City. The +110 is a bonus for half a point.

$1,000 – Cincinnati (-10.5, -105) vs Houston – Like the Panthers visiting Tennessee, this game has trap written all over it. At the same time, without a running game, and with Brian Hoyer leading the offense, the only thing that SHOULD be in question is whether they can cover the 10.5 points. Given that the line is as high as 12 in some spots (with a +105 payout), I’ll take the lower line with the lower payout to give a little bit of breathing room.

$1,500 – New England at NY Giants: Over 54.5 (-110) – Once again, two teams not all that concerned with defense. Eli Manning threw six touchdowns two weeks ago and lost.  The Patriots were held under 30 for just the second time all season last week—a season low 27. They’re not in prime time, but a late start on the East Coast must mean a national stage—so Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won’t pull of the gas.

$685 –  Jacksonville Jaguars (+200 money line) over Baltimore – As I’m placing this bet, only one site that I look at has their money lines up for the week (and even they are missing several games), so I might waffle on this a bit as the week goes on—but with games that are posted, I only have Jacksonville and Arizona as upsets picked for the week, and Jacksonville both pays better and has a weaker opponent—not to mention, I could really use a big week from Blake Bortles, as odd as that sounds.