Bet the Mortgage: Week 10, 2014 NFL Best Bets

There have been times we’ve done this segment that I’ve been embarrassed about our shortcomings. There have been others where I’ve wished we were really in Vegas making these bets. Last week was one of the latter.

We both hit three of four bets, with a combined gain of $3,170 on a total of $4,850 in hypothetical bets … not bad. That puts us, for the season, at more than $15,000 to the good for the season… not bad after last season, when Vinny and Guito would have been hunting both of us down for some experimental non-anesthetized knee replacement surgeries.

Here are the standings so far:

Tony:

This week—back to aggressive, 7 weeks left to hit my goal.

$1,000 – Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, -105) at New York Jets – Yeah, they’re on the road. Yeah, the defense isn’t actually that great. But it’s the Jets, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 12 TDs in two weeks—despite being on my fantasy roster for one of them. I’ll even take the negative payout.

$1,000 – Miami Dolphins (+5, +210) at Detroit Lions – I’m a bit confused about this line…the spread, the payout…I realize Miami is on the road. And they haven’t really proven anything yet. But have the Lions? Actually, I might need to update this one, as it might be off—just realized that the over/under on the site I am looking at is 87…I think I’d take the under there.

$500 – Tennessee Titans (+10, -115) at Baltimore Ravens – Maybe it’s because I’m early for once this week, but the lines seem skewed more than usual. I don’t think the Titans win this game—especially in Baltimore—and I’d rather not be making -115, but I don’t know that I think the Ravens can beat them by double digits.

$500 – Carolina Panthers (+225 Moneyline) over Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles are starting Mark Sanchez at quarterback. That enough is a reason to bet against them.

Andy:

Tony beat me to the punch this week. And it looks like he benefited, particularly in the Steelers game, for it. So it goes. I’m going to be a little more aggressive this week. I’m playing with house money and it’s getting to be about the time of year when … it’s fun to be more aggressive.

$1,500 – Pittsburgh (-4.5, -110) at NY Jets – This is a weird line. Two sites posted on Yahoo have the Steelers at -5 with a -115 payout. One has -6 at -110 and one, our good old 5dimes.eu, has it at 4.5 points with a -110 payout. I’d take any of those points – I think the only way the Steelers don’t cover this is if they have a letdown … like they did earlier in the season against Tampa Bay … and almost against Jacksonville. Still, the way Ben Roethlisberger is playing, this should be a win.

$1,000 – Green Bay (-8, +105) vs Chicago – Both teams are coming off a bye. Green Bay has had an extra week to lick its wounds following a dismantling at the hands of New Orleans. And they need this game to keep up with Detroit. Chicago … something just isn’t clicking there between Marc Trestman, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Co. This game could get ugly.

$1,000 – Denver (-12.5, +105) at Oakland – Peyton’s gonna be pissed. A week after getting annihilated by New England, the Broncos get a nice game in Oakland to release some frustrations. The Raiders are playing better, but they’re not good enough to stick with the Broncos in what will be a comfortable, get-back-on-track performance.

$300 – Tennessee (+405 Moneyline) at Baltimore – I’m taking a page from Tony’s book. Do I really think the Titans beat the Ravens? I’m not sure. It’s more likely to happen than his Raiders upset of Seattle was last week – and yet Oakland kept that game surprisingly close. Tennessee isn’t good, but they’re far from terrible. The Ravens are better, but every now and then that team craps the bed. That’s what I’m hoping for here.

For straight up picks for week 10, click here.