Bet the Mortgage: Week 10, 2013 NFL Best Bets

I’ll admit, I started to get a little bit cocky last week. And after pointing out that Andy often likes to start his losing early, he did just that–his Thursday Cincinnati bet had me even more confident heading into Sunday. Unfortunately, while he didn’t exactly knock the cover off, my hot streak cooled, so this week he gained on me. But will his betting on Thursday night games continue? We’ve already discussed the inexplicable line on the Vikings game (when we discussed, the Vikings were 2.5 point dogs, it now ranges from a PK to 3 point dogs depending on where you go), which even has me tempted to break my rule of betting on (or against, in this case) the home team…

We’re coming into the final 7 weeks of the season, and neither of us have made life altering bets–neither of us have had to consider what we would do if we actually got down to $0 budget, but neither of us have made enough that our wives are likely to let us quit our day jobs to take sports betting up as a full-time gig.

Maybe this is the week we start to change that?

Andy’s Bets:

$400 – Washington (-2.5, -110) at Minnesota – I’ve rarely had a lot of luck betting on my home team, whether for or against. But the Vikings are getting terrible QB play and they’re hampered by a ton of injuries. And they aren’t good. The Redskins seem to be coming around a bit the last couple weeks. Here’s betting they run and throw the Vikings into oblivion by halftime.

$200 – Dallas at New Orleans: Under 54 (-110) – My first instinct was to look at this as a 35-31 game. But Dallas has been under in three of its last four games and the Saints have gone under five of eight times this season. My guess is there will be a lot of yardage amassed but not the number of points I first expected.

$250 – Houston (+1, +115) at Arizona – I’m not quite sure why 5dimes.eu has this game at +115, but according to our odds page at yahoo sports, it does. The Texans were taking it to the Colts last week before coach Kubiak had his mini-stroke at halftime. That tells me this team still has some fight in spite of its troubles. Pressure Carson Palmer like they did Andrew Luck and the Texans will be going home with an upset win on the road.

$200 – Upset of the Week: Dallas (Moneyline +245) at New Orleans – As mentioned above, I think this game is going to play under the 54. That bodes well for the Cowboys, who are 4-1 when going under the number, but just 1-3 playing in games that go over. I think the Saints are the better team, but I felt more strongly about that before New Orleans crapped the bed against the better-than-expected-but-still-up-and-down Jets. I think there may be some correction going on here. New Orleans is better than in 2012 by a wide margin, but likely not quite as good as the 5-0 start. I don’t really think Dallas wins this game, but as far as upsets go, it wouldn’t surprise me that much if they do.

Tony’s Bets:

As much as I am tempted, I don’t think I can bet on tonight’s game, even though I’ll actually be there in person to cheer my team to victory (or a better draft position).

$750 – Denver at San Diego: Over 58 (-110) – I’m going to go ahead and assume this will be a nice weather game, and keep my Broncos over streak alive–and up the ante on the betting side a bit. No reason to think either of these defenses will be able to shut out the other’s offense–could be a repeat of the Denver/Dallas game.

$250 – Oakland (+7.5, -110) at New York Giants – Normally you want to avoid the west coast teams traveling east like the plague. But 7.5 points to the 2-6 Giants? Just because they’ve won two in a row doesn’t mean they’re hot–they beat the Vikings (with an unprepared Josh Freeman) and the Eagles (with Matt Barkley), and scored a grand total of 38 points (with two touchdowns) while doing it. I wouldn’t pick the Raiders to win, but it should be close. Ugly, and close.

$250 – Tampa Bay (+1, +105) vs. Miami – It would take a lot to push the Buccaneers out of the top spot for most dysfunctional NFL team in the NFL at this point–cue Richie Incognito’s entrance music. The bullying scandal that bubbled up across state in Miami has the Buccaneers looking flat out calm and collected at this point–no one should be shocked if the Dolphins come out and just lay an egg in this one. The only question will be if Tampa can actually capitalize.

$250 – Buffalo (Moneyline +145) at Pittsburgh – There’s not much intriguing on the Moneyline this week in my eyes, but I like the direction this Buffalo team has been headed, even with a difficult QB situation. Reports are that they will get EJ Manuel back this week, and he has looked better than I expected he ever would, so I’ll take a shot.