Bet the Mortgage: Week 1, 2015 – Best Bets

Another season, another futile attempt to upset the Vegas oddsmakers.

This is the third year in a row now where we’re starting with a mythical $10,000 bankroll. We’ll track our wins and losses throughout the year as we pick three games against the spread and one upset against the moneyline.

Last year, after a solid start, Andy tanked, losing again in the gambling to Tony, whose basic strategy involves finding 10 minutes in between meetings and throwing darts.

Here we go.

Andy

Even harder than picking games straight up in the season’s first couple weeks is picking games against the spread. And this week’s slate of games is particularly tough, with few marquee match-ups and a slate of fairly evenly matched games. I almost went all over/unders, but did find a couple spread games where the return was worth taking a shot.

$600 – Minnesota (-3, +110) at San Francisco – So, to give 2.5 points, my return is -115, but to give the full field goal, at Bovada, I get +110 in return? San Francisco is going to be brutal this year. Minnesota is going to win this game comfortably.

$750 – Pittsburgh at New England: Over 52.5 (-105) – I think we’re going to see in this game what the Patriots can do wehn they are angry. They will get substantially close to the 52 alone. Pittsburgh also has a great offense. This will not be a low scoring game.

$700 – Green Bay (-7, EVEN) at Chicago – There are few games I feel really good about this week, but the Packers over the Bears is one. I think the Packers, even without Jordy Nelson, win comfortably. And since I can get an even money return from 5dimes.eu by giving a touchdown, sign me up.

$250 – Oakland (Moneyline +155) vs Cincinnati – Tony and I argued about Cincinnati earlier this week in our division previews. I think the Bengals are going to start to slide. I don’t like the QB and, while I’m not big on hunches, I just have one on this team. Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t good yet, but are on the climb. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper remind Raiders fans in this upset of Ken Stabler and Fred Biletnikoff or Tim Brown and … several bad QBs who threw him the ball over the years.

Tony

$750 – Indianapolis (-3, +105) at Buffalo – Kind of dumfounded to see Indy at +105 on this, especially for just a 3 point spread. Buffalo has a good defense, and their offense should improve, but I just don’t think they have the weapons to keep up with Indianapolis.

$750 – Green Bay (-7, -110) at Chicago – Much like Buffalo, I don’t think Chicago has the weapons to keep up with Green Bay. Unlike Buffalo, Chicago is not improved. I like Green Bay by 10+ even in Chicago.

$500 – Cincinnati @ Oakland: Over 43 (-110) – I don’t know that I think it will be a huge over, but I think both of these teams have decent offenses, paired with defenses that have holes. I’m thinking 24-20 or 27-21 for this one.

$300 – Jacksonville over Carolina (Moneyline +145) – This isn’t the biggest moneyline upset I have in my picks this week, but I’m not sure what I was thinking when I took Cleveland over the Jets—I wouldn’t love heading into the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, but if there’s one guy I would rather have him then, it’s Josh McCown. So give me the young upstart Jaguars over the aging Carolina Panthers.