Bet the Mortgage: Week 1, 2014 NFL Best Bets

Tony and I have been pretending we know how to beat pointspreads for several seasons now, both online and in Vegas.

Last year we shook it up a bit. Each of us started the season with a hypothetical, mythical $10,000. We then assigned money values to our bets and calculated our winnings and losings throughout the season. We pick three games against the number – either the over/under or the pointspread. We pick one moneyline upset.

It’s not a perfect representation of how it would look if we were in Vegas, other than we both get more wrong than we do right – though Tony kicked some ass the last third of last year, getting enough of his larger bets right to make better than a 50 percent profit for the season.

I was brutal. A disaster. A joke. An embarrassment to my family. If anyone actually read these bet posts all season, one would hope they figured out to do the opposite. Here’s a link to the post I wrote at season’s end to summarize our picks.

Nonetheless, here we are, back for more fun and personal torture. And here we go:

Andy:

Truth be told, I don’t like betting on week one. It’s hard. So much changes each offseason you never know which dreg team from 2013 is going to be the surprise playoff contender in 2014. And the schedule this week is rife with competitive games. So, while my brother apparently plans to come out guns blazin’, I’ll play it conservative for at least a couple weeks. We’ll see which approach works.

$250 – Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 39.5 (-110) – Carolina sent most of its receivers packing this offseason. Kelvin Benjamin is huge and promising, but the rest of the corps does little to excite me. Cam Newton is coming off an injury and the RBs, well, they don’t leave me terribly optimistic about the early part of the season for the Panthers’ offense. But the defense is largely intact. And while many are excited about Tampa heading into 2014, I need to see something indicating that Josh McCown is going to be the McCown of 2013 rather than the McCown of 2000-2012 before I expect a ton of output from that offense. I see a low-scoring game won by … whoever scores the most points.

$250 – New York Jets (-5, -110) vs Oakland – Originally I wasn’t all that excited about this game. But for a number of reasons I’m starting to believe this one is money. The Jets are far from great, but they have a solid defense. The Raiders will start Derek Carr. They have a bunch of no-name receivers. Oakland has some new players on defense. It just all adds up to a game New York should win comfortably.

$150 – Minnesota (+6, -110) at St. Louis – I try to avoid betting on or against the Vikings, but in this case I think the number is off just a bit. I do think the Rams win but I think Minnesota scores some points and stays in the game. A field goal game sounds about right.

$150 – Upset of the Week: San Diego (Moneyline +150) at Arizona – The entire NFC West is in the top one-third of the NFL’s teams right now. But San Diego came on strong in 2013 and there’s little reason to believe they can’t follow it up with another good season. Push comes to shove, if someone asks me who wins this game I’d say Arizona. But while I think there are some interesting games on the slate for this weekend I don’t see a lot of upsets. This one has as much a chance of happening as any.

Tony:

After Andy corrected my mistake on scoring our bets last year (it was a lot more fun when I was double paying us), I realized that last year netted a whole lot of…nothing. So this year, I’m going for broke. By mid-season, I hope to be up by 100%, or down by 100%.  Either way, a lot more fun.

$800 – Chicago Bears (-7.5, +120) over Buffalo – I found one online sports book willing to bump the payout from -110  or -105 to +120 by taking another half point. I think Chicago wins this one handily, so I’ll happily take the extra cash.

$500 – Detroit Lions (-5, -110) over New York Giants – I consider the Giants a sleeper team this year…to be in the race for the rights to choose which of Marcos Mariota or Jameis Winston will be the bigger bust. And if Eli puts on the show that I expect from him this year, they might make that a reality. The only thing working against them? Playing in the NFC East, where they probably stumble their way to a handful of wins that might keep them out of the top spot. I don’t love the Lions, but I think they cover here.

$500 – Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh: Over 40.5 (-110) – First week of the season. New defensive interference/holding/mugging rules. Big Ben vs. the possibility of seeing Johnny Manziel by halftime. No reason to think both teams won’t make it to 20. As long as they don’t tie at 20, that’ll work out ok (although, if you put me on the spot for a prediction, 23-17 Pittsburgh sounds about right).

$300 – Upset of the Week: Tennessee Titans (+170) over Kansas City Chiefs – Don’t love the money line this week (almost put money on the Vikings, which is something I desperately avoid doing). But I grabbed these guys in our weekly bets, so I’ll give it a shot here too.

For straight up week one picks, click here.