weekly-betsWe’re changing things up a bit this year. We’re still going to pick four bets: three on the pointspread and then one moneyline upset every week. Each of us will start with $10,000. We’ll disperse that through all 17 weeks, scoring both the wins and losses and the dollar amounts we end up with.

If it goes as well as it did last season, we’ll both be out of money by week 11. We’ll figure that one out when we get there.

In the mean time, here are the bets:

Andy

$200 – Seattle (-3.5, -110) at Carolina – Sorry Panthers fans, but you’re starting off your season against one of the league’s juggernaut teams. This will be a statement game for Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Co. The defense will shut down Cam Newton. The run game will pick apart Carolina. Wilson faces one of the best secondaries in the league every day in practice so he won’t be intimidated by a solid Carolina pass defense. Seattle wins this by 10 or more.

$150 – Minnesota (+5.5, -110) at Detroit – I get why Detroit is favored. The Lions are at home and the Vikings didn’t look like much in the preseason. Reggie Bush gives Matt Stafford another offensive weapon. But … the Lions are still coming off of a 4-12 season. The Vikings still have a decent defense and Adrian Peterson, and most of the team was not showcased in August. Detroit might win this game. But it’s by a field goal, not anything more. This number has been getting bigger. There’s opportunity here. $150

$200 – Green Bay at San Francisco: Over 48.5 (-110) – These teams played twice last season, once in the season opener and once in the playoffs. San Francisco, for the most part, dominated both games on both sides of the ball and I don’t really see anything from Green Bay that leads me to believe this game will turn out any differently. That’s why I say bet on the over. Alex Smith put up 30 on the Packers in game one. In the playoff game Colin Kaepernick doinked the Pack to the tune of 45. Green Bay is going to score points too. This will not be a 23-16 game. Think 35-20. $200

$150 – Upset of the Week: Atlanta (Moneyline +145) at New Orleans – Okay, okay, I get it already. Sean Payton is back. The Saints are whole again. Except a couple of the top players on defense are out with ACL injuries and this unit was historically bad last year. The Falcons return all of their top weapons in the passing game and added Steven Jackson, who even at an advanced age for running backs, has to have more life left in him than Michael Turner did last year. Why are the Saints favored here? $150

Tony

$250 – New England (-9, -105) at Buffalo – Buffalo is starting a first round rookie quarterback that most experts thought was very raw coming out of college, after he missed most of the preseason. Their backup is something called Jeff Tuel, who went 4-22 in his 26 starts at Washington State while suffering several injuries after starting five games his freshman year (another fun fact: he wasn’t invited to the draft combine). I don’t see this one ending well for the Bills. In fact, it has me slightly regretting drafting CJ Spiller in a fantasy league.

$200 – Tampa Bay (-3.5, -110) at New York Jets – The Jets are also starting a rookie quarterback, and their head coach seems even less interested in coaching this year than he was in dealing with Tebowmania last year.

$150 – Kansas City at Jacksonville: Under 41 – Normally I look for an Over/Under that looks low so I can safely assume it will go over. This week, I think the Chiefs and Jaguars could play eight quarters and struggle to hit the Over.

$125 – Upset of the Week: Carolina (Moneyline +150) vs. Seattle – I probably didn’t even pick this one in my weekly picks, but I’ve been down on the Seahawks all offseason, given the hype—and they have to travel across the country to play an early game against a Panthers team that has looked better than I expected in the preseason. Every year, someone with big expectations gets their teeth kicked in the first week—could this be the Seahawks year?

We posted our standard NFL week one picks Tuesday.