Well, last week anyone reading this page would have been better off betting against me – they’d probably be on their way to an early retirement, in fact.

One lesson I think I should learn is to just stay away from betting on Cincinnati games. You just never know what is going to happen when the Orange and Black hit the field this season.

In fact, bad teams in general have tended to screw me up this season, so perhaps staying away from Oakland, St. Louis and Detroit would be wise as well…

Nah.

So, here goes on week three of this effort. Heading into this week’s games, I was 0-4 last week leaving me 2-5 overall. I had trouble with the Vegas.com site I usually use for these picks, so today I’m using the LV Hilton lines from vegasinsider.com.

1. New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia
This should be a fantastic game and I’m not discounting the Eagles having a chance to win. But the Giants look to me to be the best team in the NFL right now, save possibly for Tennessee. And they’ve already won big divisional games handily, both at home and on the road. If I get a chance to bet on the Giants and get points I’m going to do so.

2. Green Bay (+2.5) at Minnesota
My brother often criticizes me for betting on the games played by our home team Vikings and Gophers and he’s typically correct because sometimes emotions get in the way of making smart bets. This one, however, is solely by the numbers. Brad Childress is 0-5 against Green Bay and the Packers have been the more consistent team throughout the season so far. Is there a chance those trends change this weekend as Aaron Rodgers experiences his first start at Metrodome? Perhaps. But until it happens, the Green and Gold are the smart bet here.

3. Baltimore (+1) at Houston
Why so much love for Houston? The starting quarterback is hurt. The defense has been mediocre all season. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is playing like a veteran and the Ravens’ defense continues to defy age. Ravens win this game straight up. The point is a bonus.

4. San Diego vs Kansas City: Over 47.5
Expectations were high in San Diego heading into the season but injuries have decimated a once-great defense. The scapegoat firing of Ted Cottrell leaves the defense in the hands of the capable Ron Rivera, except he’s never coached a 3-4 scheme before. That leads me to believe that even if the Chargers are going to improve some the rest of the way they’ll still give up some points. San Diego on offense will definitely score. I envision a 31-20-type score that covers even this fairly high over/under total.

Good luck.