Weeks 15 and 16 weren’t kind. I’ve produced back to back 1-3 records on these so-called Best Bets leaving me at 17-17 since I started making them. As the old saying goes, ties are like kissing your sister – and in Vegas, a tie isn’t really even a tie, when you factor in the vig.

So it’s going to take a perfect week to make this hypothetical endeavor a break-even deal. And here goes.

Last week1-3
Overall: 17-17

1. Denver at San Diego: Over 50.5
The Chargers will be motivated to avenge their questionable loss to Denver in week two, during which 77 points were scored. And both teams have the playoffs on the line. But neither team has a defense that will be able to stop the other. The difference will come down to San Diego having LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles while Denver is down to its 12th string back. Cutler and Rivers put on an aerial show that nearly covers the over/under by halftime.

2. Chicago (+3) at Houston
I know the Texans have looked better of late, save for the turd dropped last week against Oakland. But Chicago has a shot at the NFC North division title and through the better part of the season the Bears have been a considerably better team than Houston. Matt Forte should have his way with the Texans’ defense. I just can’t figure out why the Texans are giving the points in this one. … Then again, the last time I dissed Houston they dropped then one-loss Tennessee, so maybe the oddsmakers know something I don’t.

3. Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Under 33.5
Cleveland hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in five games and the Brownies have put up 31 points total during that span – yes, six points per game. Pittsburgh hasn’t been scoring much lately either. The first game between these two was a 10-6 barnburner won by Pittsburgh. I would expect Pittsburgh to get a lead and then try to work the clock while the defense stymies the Bruce Gradkowski starting debut. Something along the lines of 17-3 or 20-6 sounds about right.

4. Miami (+3) at New York Jets
The New York Jets are 1-6 against the spread the last seven times they were the favorite. The results have been worse on the road than at home, but still, New York is just 3-4 against the spread at home all season. The Dolphins, winners of eight of their last nine contests, know that if they win they are in the playoffs. They’re 3-0 on artificial turf, 5-2 on the road against the spread and they are playing better than the Jets. Dolphins snap a five game losing streak against the Jets and win straight up.