by Tony | Oct 8, 2020 | 2020 season, Daily Fantasy, Fantasy Football
Tony got his win during Week 3, then managed to shut himself out Week 4 — somehow in editing his lineup, he managed to not technically file a lineup … but the contest moved forward, so he lost his wager. However, we figured out his point total from Week 4 manually and … he would have lost anyway — albeit close, 123.08-120.18. Another 30 yards would have given him a win.
Andy’s still got the lead for the season, but the gap tightened considerably.
|
Week 4 |
Season |
Total points |
Andy |
123.08 |
0-1 |
541.06 |
Tony |
120.18 |
1-3 |
521.40 |
Tony
QB – Russell Wilson vs Min – $8,300 – I have a sneaky suspicion that we may have some overlap in our lineups this week …
RB – James Robinson @ Hou – $6,900 – Sacrificing a little bit at RB this week … (more…)
by Tony | Jun 14, 2020 | 2020 season, NFL Picks
I remember seeing all over Reddit last year that fans of lots of teams were upset with Adam Rank’s predictions for their team–the Vikings subreddit in particular, with his 5-11 prediction is the one that sticks out. With his 2020 predictions hitting the last couple of days, thought it would be a good time to review his picks last year.
Rank’s NFL.com profile notes that he has been “has been giving his irreverent look on the NFL” since 1995, and if you watch the video it’s clear that he’s a Bears fan (going so far as to have someone else walk in the frame to tap the screen handing the Bears a late season loss to the Packers, so he didn’t have to). And to be fair to Rank, he’s putting his game by game predictions out in June–long before training camp injuries and surprise retirements (hi Andrew Luck!), but even with that…his predictions were…not great.
To get his predictions, I fast forwarded through a YouTube video of all of them (will embed it below)…and while I may have missed something, I had him coming up with an aggregate record of 255-257. From my spot checking, he did seem to have the proper cross game selections (ie, he had Pittsburgh losing to Arizona, then he did have Arizona beating Pittsburgh), so maybe I just missed something.
But here were his overall predicitons:
|
|
2019 Prediction |
Division Rank |
Playoff Seed |
AFC East |
Patriots |
13-3 |
1st |
1st Seed |
Bills |
8-8 |
2nd |
|
Dolphins |
3-13 |
3rd |
|
Jets |
3-13 |
4th |
|
AFC North |
Browns |
10-6 |
1st |
4th Seed |
Steelers |
9-7 |
2nd |
|
Ravens |
9-7 |
3rd |
|
Bengals |
3-13 |
4th |
|
AFC South |
Colts |
12-4 |
1st |
3rd Seed |
Jaguars |
11-5 |
2nd |
5th Seed |
Texans |
9-7 |
3rd |
|
Titans |
3-13 |
4th |
|
AFC West |
Chiefs |
12-4 |
1st |
2nd Seed |
Chargers |
11-5 |
2nd |
6th Seed |
Raiders |
8-8 |
3rd |
|
Broncos |
2-14 |
4th |
1st Overall Pick |
|
|
|
|
|
NFC East |
Eagles |
13-3 |
1st |
2nd Seed |
Cowboys |
10-6 |
2nd |
|
Giants |
5-11 |
3rd |
|
Washington |
2-14 |
4th |
|
NFC North |
Bears |
13-3 |
1st |
1st Seed |
Packers |
12-4 |
2nd |
5th Seed |
Vikings |
5-11 |
3rd |
|
Lions |
4-12 |
4th |
|
NFC South |
Saints |
12-4 |
1st |
3rd Seed |
Falcons |
11-5 |
2nd |
|
Panthers |
8-8 |
3rd |
|
Buccaneers |
4-12 |
4th |
|
NFC West |
Rams |
12-4 |
1st |
4th Seed |
Seahawks |
12-4 |
2nd |
6th Seed |
49ers |
3-13 |
3rd |
|
Cardinals |
3-13 |
4th |
|
It’s easy to second guess those now, knowing how the season turned out–so let’s just jump straight into the comparison:
|
|
2019 Prediction |
Division Rank |
Playoff Seed |
2019 Actual |
Division Rank |
Playoff Seed |
AFC East |
Patriots |
13-3 |
1st |
1st Seed |
12-4 |
1st |
3rd Seed |
Bills |
8-8 |
2nd |
|
10-6 |
2nd |
5th Seed |
Dolphins |
3-13 |
3rd |
|
5-11 |
4th |
|
Jets |
3-13 |
4th |
|
7-9 |
3rd |
|
AFC North |
Browns |
10-6 |
1st |
4th Seed |
6-10 |
3rd |
|
Steelers |
9-7 |
2nd |
|
8-8 |
2nd |
|
Ravens |
9-7 |
3rd |
|
14-2 |
1st |
1st Seed |
Bengals |
3-13 |
4th |
|
2-14 |
4th |
|
AFC South |
Colts |
12-4 |
1st |
3rd Seed |
7-9 |
3rd |
|
Jaguars |
11-5 |
2nd |
5th Seed |
6-10 |
4th |
|
Texans |
9-7 |
3rd |
|
10-6 |
1st |
4th Seed |
Titans |
3-13 |
4th |
|
9-7 |
2nd |
6th Seed |
AFC West |
Chiefs |
12-4 |
1st |
2nd Seed |
12-4 |
1st |
2nd Seed |
Chargers |
11-5 |
2nd |
6th Seed |
5-11 |
4th |
|
Raiders |
8-8 |
3rd |
|
7-9 |
3rd |
|
Broncos |
2-14 |
4th |
1st Overall Pick |
7-9 |
2nd |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC East |
Eagles |
13-3 |
1st |
2nd Seed |
9-7 |
1st |
4th Seed |
Cowboys |
10-6 |
2nd |
|
8-8 |
2nd |
|
Giants |
5-11 |
3rd |
|
4-12 |
3rd |
|
Washington |
2-14 |
4th |
|
3-13 |
4th |
|
NFC North |
Bears |
13-3 |
1st |
1st Seed |
8-8 |
3rd |
|
Packers |
12-4 |
2nd |
5th Seed |
13-3 |
1st |
2nd Seed |
Vikings |
5-11 |
3rd |
|
10-6 |
2nd |
6th Seed |
Lions |
4-12 |
4th |
|
3-12-1 |
4th |
|
NFC South |
Saints |
12-4 |
1st |
3rd Seed |
13-3 |
1st |
3rd Seed |
Falcons |
11-5 |
2nd |
|
7-9 |
2nd |
|
Panthers |
8-8 |
3rd |
|
5-11 |
4th |
|
Buccaneers |
4-12 |
4th |
|
7-9 |
3rd |
|
NFC West |
Rams |
12-4 |
1st |
4th Seed |
9-7 |
3rd |
|
Seahawks |
12-4 |
2nd |
6th Seed |
11-5 |
2nd |
5th Seed |
49ers |
3-13 |
3rd |
|
13-3 |
1st |
1st Seed |
Cardinals |
3-13 |
4th |
|
5-10-1 |
4th |
|
I didn’t go through it game by game, but by my count, he got exactly one team’s record correct (the Chiefs, at 12-4), and two playoff seeds correct (the Chiefs and Saints). He did manage to get 15 teams correct on where they would rank in their division–including the entire NFC East. But in total, he missed by a total of 96 games when you take the absolute value of the differences. His worst prediction was the 49ers, who he had at 3-13–they only went 13-3 and represented the NFC in the Super Bowl.
My goal is to put together my own predictions in 2020 (pre-training camp), and see how I do compared to him. I did it once several years ago for fun, and just creating the spreadsheet to make sure you’re not miscounting is a pain–but if anyone else is interested, let me know in the comments below, and I can send you the spreadsheet as well–then maybe we’ll post all of our predictions, and see how many of us can best Adam Rank’s 2020 predictions.
For the record, here’s what I am seeing for his 2020 predictions:
|
|
2019 Prediction |
Division Rank |
Playoff Seed |
AFC East |
Patriots |
9-7 |
1st |
4th Seed |
Bills |
9-7 |
2nd |
|
Dolphins |
7-9 |
3rd |
|
Jets |
4-12 |
4th |
|
AFC North |
Ravens |
11-5 |
1st |
5th Seed |
Steelers |
13-3 |
1st |
1st Seed |
Bengals |
4-12 |
3rd |
|
Browns |
8-8 |
4th |
|
AFC South |
Colts |
10-6 |
1st |
3rd Seed |
Jaguars |
3-13 |
2nd |
|
Texans |
6-10 |
3rd |
|
Titans |
8-8 |
2nd |
|
AFC West |
Chiefs |
10-6 |
1st |
6th Seed |
Chargers |
3-13 |
2nd |
|
Raiders |
9-7 |
3rd |
7th Seed |
Broncos |
11-5 |
4th |
2nd Seed |
|
|
|
|
|
NFC East |
Eagles |
13-3 |
1st |
1st Seed |
Cowboys |
12-4 |
2nd |
5th Seed |
Giants |
6-10 |
3rd |
|
Washington |
4-12 |
4th |
|
NFC North |
Bears |
10-6 |
1st |
4th Seed |
Packers |
8-8 |
2nd |
|
Vikings |
7-9 |
3rd |
|
Lions |
3-13 |
4th |
|
NFC South |
Saints |
12-4 |
1st |
2nd Seed |
Falcons |
7-9 |
2nd |
|
Panthers |
4-12 |
3rd |
|
Buccaneers |
10-6 |
4th |
6th Seed |
NFC West |
Rams |
7-9 |
1st |
|
Seahawks |
10-6 |
2nd |
7th Seed |
49ers |
12-4 |
3rd |
3rd Seed |
Cardinals |
6-10 |
4th |
|
Adam Rank’s 2019 Predictions Video:
Adam Rank’s 2020 Predictions Video
by Tony | May 25, 2020 | 50's, By the Numbers, Hall of Fame, NFL History
I swear, the numbers we choose for this really are random, I really do draw these out of a hat–although I was tempted to throw this one back, because even I had trouble believing that we got them back to back. I mean, we have covered the best #79, #80 and #81 already–but that was over the course of eight years that we wrote those three, and they weren’t consecutive. Plus, kind of like the question of who is the best #80 in NFL history, in the end it’s not really a debate who the best #56 in NFL history is, right?
We can all agree that the all-time greatest player to wear #56 was…Marty Schottenheimer, right? Seriously, he did wear it for his first three seasons playing for Buffalo, before switching to #57, and finishing his career with #54.
At the same time…it’s a pretty good list of players in NFL history that wore #56–maybe not quite as good as #55 will be, but there are five Hall of Famers that wore it as their primary jersey, a couple more Hall of Famers that wore it for part of their career, and a few pretty good players that aren’t in the Hall that wore it. There’s even a few that are wearing it today–including at least one that may make an updated version of this article someday, if he keeps playing like he has in his first couple of seasons…which his career will probably wrap up right around the time we finish this list.
(more…)
by Tony | May 25, 2020 | Hall of Fame
Not sure how many of you are on Twitter at all (follow us at @zoneblitzcom [Andy] and @toneblitz [Me]…although it tends to skew more fantasy football there), but stumbled across a tweet earlier tonight that interested me in a couple ways:
First is the content itself–Gore vs Charles…not really a heads up that I would have ever considered, mostly because I never considered Charles to be that level of player. Don’t get me wrong–he was a great player (that I think may have won me a fantasy football championship or two), but for such a short period of time.
While there are some short term career running backs in Canton, I don’t feel like Charles reached the bar of Gale Sayers (who admittedly may not be elected today, but in his time was apparently considered a revolutionary back) or Terrell Davis, who cracked the 2,000 yard mark AND led his team to two Super Bowl wins.
He played 11 seasons in the NFL, but was only four times did he start more than 10 games (although defining a starting RB isn’t always that easy), cracked the 1,000 yard rushing mark five times, and finished his career with over 10,000 all-purpose yards.
Gore has been discussed several times here–although amazingly enough, we’ve apparently never given him his own “Should Frank Gore Make the Hall of Fame” post…which might tell you something.
The more I look at it…the premise of the article is kind of ridiculous–I hadn’t even read the full article before I started writing this, and while it’s obvious that they’re trying to give an example of “Longetivity” vs. “Peak Performance”–but in choosing Charles, they kind of missed the mark, given that Gore’s best season (his second season in 2006, a full two years before Charles was drafted) Gore put up 2,160 all-purpose yards with 1,695 on the ground–a full 180 yards ahead of Charles’ peak season of 1,980 from 2013.
It’s true, Charles did it in a lot fewer touches–329 vs 373–and Charles had two seasons over 1,900 total yards, whereas Gore’s second highest season was 1,538. But to argue that Charles’ peak was high enough to warrant Hall of Fame selection…when Charles wasn’t even leading the league in yardage when he was at his peak, and only led the league in rushing TDs once (with 12)…just falls flat.
But the second thing that the article got me thinking about actually has to do with the Hall of Fame selection process. I think we would all agree that the current process has some flaws in it–not the least of which (in my eyes) comes down to trusting the opinions of a bunch of sports writers, when some of the sports writers that I’ve seen on the list over the years frankly aren’t that good (with their writing, their impartiality, or their sports takes).
But what about people who work at companies like Pro Football Focus, who seemingly have made serious in roads in their acceptance into the NFL media circles, with some announcers (albeit mostly Cris Collinsworth, who I didn’t realize is apparently the majority owner of the company). They do an amazing job breaking the game down into analytics & grades–although their grading process draws plenty of criticism as well.
As the game heads even more towards an analytics based approach–much like baseball–are we going to start to include things like career PFF rating (or similar services from other companies) into our decisions of who is Hall of Fame worthy? Should some of the top analysts from these companies be given a say in who gets in, as some of the writers roll off the list of voters? (Maybe some have already? I haven’t checked the list in a while).
I’m not saying they should or shouldn’t–just curious what the community thinks…about Gore vs. Charles AND about how analytics may play a role in future HOF selections.
Photo by Mike Morbeck 
by Tony | Apr 25, 2020 | 50's, By the Numbers, Hall of Fame, NFL History
When I first drew #57 for our Best in NFL History series, per usual I thought of Vikings that I could remember with the number, and the only player that popped into my head was Dwayne Rudd. Or as he’s typically known here in Minnesota (and I believe in Cleveland) Dwayne “Effing” Rudd. No worries, he didn’t make the cut.
Bring in the 50’s, I figured we would have a bunch of linebackers to choose from, but none immediately jumped to mind–I looked up the ProFootballReference.com Jersey Number page first, and realized that Rickey Jackson (who I did see play) and Tom Jackson (who I just missed play) would probably duke it out, although there were a couple other names I recognized on the list.
It wasn’t until I flipped to #57 in my Best By Number book that I realized even looking at the PFR page, I missed the guy that will get my vote–the other player who wore #57 as his primary jersey number in the Hall of Fame.
(more…)
Not sure if anyone saw this : https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-official-records-to-finally-incorporate-all-america-football-conference-statistics
100% agreed on the locks for the seniors if we had a fifth slot my pick would either be Matheson…
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I'm sold on 4 of them Brian not quite sold on Benton just yet
A special election could continue to gather momentum but it would probably only be 3-5 players at the most. Its…