**EDIT: This article was originally posted on October 24, 2022. Given the news that Jason Kelce is retiring, we thought it relevant to push back to the top of the page.**
In the interest of keeping some Hall of Fame discussion ongoing and fresh, hopefully I’ll be a bit more proactive about posing these questions when I see/hear them out in the wild. I came across this one over the weekend when working on another football related project:
To be honest, another player I wouldn’t even have thought to ask the question about–obviously I know who he is, and I knew he was decent, but I was surprised when I looked up his profile on Pro-Football-Reference.com to see that he is a four-time First-Team AP All-Pro, and five-time Pro Bowler (interesting as well that two of his All-Pro seasons were not Pro Bowl seasons). He’s playing in his 12th season, and has started/played in every game in nine of those seasons, including the last seven seasons.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame released it’s list of Semifinalists Tuesday morning, knocking the list down to 25 names for consideration for the final 5 in the Class of 2024. The biggest surprise? Likely that it wasn’t turned into an hour long prime time special for NFL Network </snark>.
The list of semifinalists, straight from ProFootballHallofFame.com:
Eric Allen, CB – 1988-1994 Philadelphia Eagles, 1995-97 New Orleans Saints, 1998-2001 Oakland Raiders | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2021-24)
Jared Allen, DE – 2004-07 Kansas City Chiefs, 2008-2013 Minnesota Vikings, 2014-15 Chicago Bears, 2015 Carolina Panthers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2021-24)
Willie Anderson, T – 1996-2007 Cincinnati Bengals, 2008 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2021-24)
Tiki Barber, RB – 1997-2006 New York Giants | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2024)
Anquan Boldin, WR – 2003-09 Arizona Cardinals, 2010-12 Baltimore Ravens, 2013-15 San Francisco 49ers, 2016 Detroit Lions | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2022-24)
Jahri Evans, G – 2006-2016 New Orleans Saints, 2017 Green Bay Packers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2023-24)
London Fletcher, LB – 1998-2001 St. Louis Rams, 2002-06 Buffalo Bills, 2007-2013 Washington Redskins | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2023-24)
Dwight Freeney, DE – 2002-2012 Indianapolis Colts, 2013-14 San Diego Chargers, 2015 Arizona Cardinals, 2016 Atlanta Falcons, 2017 Seattle Seahawks, 2017 Detroit Lions | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2023-24)
Antonio Gates, TE – 2003-2018 San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (First Year Eligible)
Eddie George, RB – 1996-2003 Houston/Tennessee Oilers/Titans, 2004 Dallas Cowboys (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2022, 2024)
James Harrison, LB – 2002-2012, 2014-17 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2013 Cincinnati Bengals, 2017 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2023-24)
Rodney Harrison, S – 1994-2002 San Diego Chargers, 2003-08 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2021, 2023-24)
Devin Hester, PR/KR/WR – 2006-2013 Chicago Bears, 2014-15 Atlanta Falcons, 2016 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2022-24)
Torry Holt, WR – 1999-2008 St. Louis Rams, 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars | (Times as a Semifinalist: 10 – 2015-2024)
Andre Johnson, WR – 2003-2014 Houston Texans, 2015 Indianapolis Colts, 2016 Tennessee Titans | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2022-24)
Robert Mathis, DE/LB – 2003-2016 Indianapolis Colts | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2022-24)
Julius Peppers, DE – 2002-09, 2017-18 Carolina Panthers, 2010-13 Chicago Bears, 2014-15 Green Bay Packers (First Year Eligible)
Steve Smith Sr., WR – 2001-2013 Carolina Panthers, 2014-16 Baltimore Ravens | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2022-24)
Fred Taylor, RB – 1998-2008 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2009-2010 New England Patriots | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2020-24)
Hines Ward, WR – 1998-2011 Pittsburgh Steelers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 8 – 2017-2024)
Ricky Watters, RB – 1992-94 San Francisco 49ers, 1995-97 Philadelphia Eagles, 1998-2001 Seattle Seahawks | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2020, 2022-24)
Reggie Wayne, WR – 2001-2014 Indianapolis Colts | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2020-24)
Vince Wilfork, DT – 2004-2014 New England Patriots, 2015-16 Houston Texans | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2022-24)
Patrick Willis, LB – 2007-2014 San Francisco 49ers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2020-24)
Darren Woodson, S – 1992-2003 Dallas Cowboys | (Times as a Semifinalist: 8 – 2015, 2017, 2019-2024)
From that list, 10 more names will be trimmed to get to the list of 15 Modern-Era finalists in early January, who will be considered alongside Coach/Contributor Buddy Parker, and Senior Nominees Randy Gradishar, Steve McMichael and Art Powell. At a meeting before Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas in February, the selection committee will trim that list to 10, and then down to the final five, who will then be given a final Yes/No vote alongside the Coach/Contributor and Senior Nominees. It’s been years since the full slate of Modern-Era nominees didn’t get elected, though, to my recollection.
The finalists from the Class of 2023 to not make the final five included (bold indicates they were in the final 10):
With three WR making the final 10 for the Class of 2023 but none making the final five–and only two first year semifinalists joining the list–this may be the year the voters clear up the logjam by getting at least 1-2 in.
Drop your thoughts/predictions in the comments below!
So apparently we started this post over three years ago, not too long after we posted about the best #79 in NFL History–which was at least somewhat special (to at least one of us at ZB) as it was the number that Managing Editor Andy wore in high school. The number 51 was even more special (to me), as it is the number that I wore in high school–that it came up in the random draw we’ve done for numbers so quickly after #79 was pure luck.
So why did we never post it? Much like several of our other posts–in particular The Best #80 in NFL History and The Best #56 in NFL History–there didn’t seem to be much doubt who the best #51 in NFL history was–Dick Butkus. Surprisingly, when we circled back on this after Butkus passed away last week at the age of 80, we were kind of surprised to see that using ProFootballReference.com’s Approximate Value calculator, he wasn’t the “most valuable” #51 in NFL history–although I suspect that is due to career length, overall team quality, and perhaps flaw in their calculation.
Dick Butkus – When you think #51 in the NFL, Butkus is generally who you think about–at least if you’re not old enough to have seen him play (we’re not), you’ve seen him on TV and you’ve seen the highlights–he was voted the most feared tackler of all-time by the NFL Network…in 2009, more than 30 years after he retired. Picked third overall by the Chicago Bears out of Illinois, he was the hometown kid that made his hometown proud–he was a 2x NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 5x first team All-Pro (3x second team), 8x Pro Bowler, on the All-Decade teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s (despite only playing until 1973), the NFL 75th Anniversary Team, the NFL 100th Anniversary Team, was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility (1979)…the accolades go on and on. Would be an absolute shock if someone said he wasn’t the best #51 in NFL history.
Sam Mills – Based on the Approximate Value calculator from PFR, Sam Mills is the best #51 in NFL history. His story is truly inspiring–standing just 5 foot 9 inches tall, he was unable to make the Cleveland Browns (1981) or the Toronto Argonauts (1982) as an undrafted free agent after his Pop Warner coach helped him get a tryout. Browns coach Sam Rutigliano recommended to his friend Carl Peterson, then running the Philadelphia Stars of the USFL that he give Mills a look. Wearing #54, he became the anchor of their defense, helped them win two USFL Championships, and then followed his coach Jim Mora to the New Orleans Saints in 1986, where he donned the #51. He ended up being a 1x first team All-Pro, 2x second team All-Pro, 5x Pro Bowl player for the Saints and Panthers, had his number retired in Carolina, and was elected to both the Saints and Panther Hall of Fames, finishing his career with 1,265 tackles, 20.5 sacks, 11 interceptions, 22 forced fumbles, 23 fumble recoveries, and 4 defensive TDs. Sadly he passed away from cancer in 2005, but was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2022.
Takeo Spikes – Coming in second in the Approximate Value list, Spikes played from 1998 to 2012 and is often named to the list of best players to play in the NFL and never appear in a postseason game…although often he isn’t even the best #51 on that list, because Butkus also never played in a playoff game. Drafted 13th overall in 1998, Spikes donned #51 for five different teams–the Bengals, the Bills, the Eagles, the 49ers and the Chargers. He played in 219 games, amassed 1,431 tackles, 29 sacks, 16 forced fumbles, 18 fumble recoveries and 19 interceptions. Great numbers, but not enough that I would put him in the conversation with Butkus.
Randy Cross – Can’t have a number in the 50-79 range without discussing at least one offensive lineman…and Cross is higher on the AV list than Jim Richter by a good margin. Cross was a mainstay on the 49ers 80’s dynasty, starting 180 games at guard and center from 1976-1988, earning 3x first team All-Pro, 1x second team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowl and winning three Super Bowl championships during his career. As an offensive lineman…that’s about all he gets for accolades.
Other players wearing #51 worth mentioning include LB Ken Norton Jr., James Farrior, Jim Richter & Dominic Raiola. Most notable current players wearing #51 are Cesar Ruiz and David Long, although 3rd overall pick in the 2023 draft Will Anderson of the Houston Texans will likely move up that list quickly.
A couple weeks back, when the Minnesota Vikings beat the Carolina Panthers, Harrison Smith put up an insane stat line with 14 total tackles (8 solo, 6 assisted), 3 sacks and a forced fumble–apparently the first player in NFL history to put up that stat line. Being a lifelong Minnesota native & Viking fan, it started a lot of talk (or maybe amplified) talk locally about Smith being a Hall of Famer.
I’m not even clear a couple weeks later if I just never heard that talk before, or if it hadn’t really started until this season, which is very possibly his last season in purple (if not his last altogether). A lot of fans locally speculated that the team would move on after last season, given their salary cap woes–but Smith agreed to cut his salary from $14.7 million to $8 million (with $2 million in incentives) to play a 12th season with the Vikings, who brought in Brian Flores as their new defensive coordinator for 2023…a move that many saw as a perfect fit for a player like Smith.
It wasn’t that I didn’t know Smith was an amazing player–anyone regularly watching the team since he was taken 29th overall in 2012 knows he’s often been the lynchpin in the defense, with a penchant for making big plays when the team needed them most. He came into the 2023 season with 34 career interceptions, 16.5 sacks, and 946 tackles. While he has definitely slowed down, he finished the 2022 season with 85 tackles and 5 interceptions in 14 games, although was perhaps not used as aggressively in Ed Donatell’s new 3-4 scheme as he was in previous coach Mike Zimmer’s schemes. But I had never really given much consideration to whether or not he was Hall of Fame caliber…not to say I thought he wasn’t worthy of consideration–but that ultimately with so many top tier safeties in the league these days, he would be in that list of guys that would maybe be fringe HOF conversation after several years of debate.
But Tweets…err…Xs(?) like the one below after that Panthers game got me thinking–clearly a lot of Viking fans think it’s a forgone conclusion that Smith will get his gold jacket…so am I underrating him?
? 14 Tackles (8 Solo)
? 3 Sacks, 2 TFL
? 1 Strip Sack Returned for 6
? Game Sealing Sack
It’s easy to be a prisoner of the moment, but that was the BEST game of Harrison Smith’s HOF career. pic.twitter.com/mEszzUX5av
Another post I saw had this graphic, which made me think maybe I really was underrating just how good his career really has been:
Of course, we all know stats aren’t the only thing that will be considered for the Hall of Fame–and some stats like tackles are generally considered somewhat subjective, meaning they’ll have even less influence. His award profile according to ProFootballReference is 6x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro–which falls well short of Polamau’s 8x Pro Bowl, 4x All-Pro, 2x Super Bowl Champion, All-2000’s team, and 2010 Defensive Player of the Year award.
Not that it’s at all a perfect measurement, but the ProFootballReference “Similar Player” feature has Smith listed with Adrian Wilson, Eric Davis and Mark Carrier–solid players, but not exactly knocking on the door to Canton. Their HOF Monitor rating has him at 41.48–94th among DB, and compared to the average DB HOF score of 98.02. The lowest ranked player on that list of DB’s currently in the Hall of Fame is Dick LeBeau at 48.20. The lowest ranked more contemporary HOF player is John Lynch. Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Eric Weddle are all considerably higher than Smith–as are Chris Harris Jr., Stephon Gilmore and Tryann Mathieu
All of this makes me think that Smith has a much more difficult road to the Hall of Fame than many Vikings fans think–he’s a shoo-in for the Vikings Hall of Fame, possibly a Ring of Honor level player, and might even end up having his number retired (maybe sharing the honor with Paul Krause, who has been vocal about his belief that his number should be retired).
But what says the Zoneblitz.com readership, does Harrison Smith have any shot at Canton?
The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced the official list of 173 Modern Era Candidates for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, including nine first year eligible candidates.
Those nine include:
WR Brandon Marshall
WR Jordy Nelson
TE Antonio Gates
RB Jamaal Charles
OL TJ Lang
OL Josh Sitton
OL Max Unger
DL Haloti Ngata
DL Julius Peppers
The full list comprised of 94 offensive, 62 defensive and 17 special teams players can be seen on the Hall of Fame website. The list will be cut down to 25 semifinalists, announced in November.
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results
So what do you mean where you say transparency?
Paul I don’t know what are you trying to say
Let’s say we had a lot more transparency during class of 2025 election - would it have changed outcome?
Paul what do you mean it doesn’t improves outcome