So apparently we started this post over three years ago, not too long after we posted about the best #79 in NFL History–which was at least somewhat special (to at least one of us at ZB) as it was the number that Managing Editor Andy wore in high school. The number 51 was even more special (to me), as it is the number that I wore in high school–that it came up in the random draw we’ve done for numbers so quickly after #79 was pure luck.
So why did we never post it? Much like several of our other posts–in particular The Best #80 in NFL History and The Best #56 in NFL History–there didn’t seem to be much doubt who the best #51 in NFL history was–Dick Butkus. Surprisingly, when we circled back on this after Butkus passed away last week at the age of 80, we were kind of surprised to see that using ProFootballReference.com’s Approximate Value calculator, he wasn’t the “most valuable” #51 in NFL history–although I suspect that is due to career length, overall team quality, and perhaps flaw in their calculation.
Dick Butkus – When you think #51 in the NFL, Butkus is generally who you think about–at least if you’re not old enough to have seen him play (we’re not), you’ve seen him on TV and you’ve seen the highlights–he was voted the most feared tackler of all-time by the NFL Network…in 2009, more than 30 years after he retired. Picked third overall by the Chicago Bears out of Illinois, he was the hometown kid that made his hometown proud–he was a 2x NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 5x first team All-Pro (3x second team), 8x Pro Bowler, on the All-Decade teams of the 1960’s and 1970’s (despite only playing until 1973), the NFL 75th Anniversary Team, the NFL 100th Anniversary Team, was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility (1979)…the accolades go on and on. Would be an absolute shock if someone said he wasn’t the best #51 in NFL history.
Sam Mills – Based on the Approximate Value calculator from PFR, Sam Mills is the best #51 in NFL history. His story is truly inspiring–standing just 5 foot 9 inches tall, he was unable to make the Cleveland Browns (1981) or the Toronto Argonauts (1982) as an undrafted free agent after his Pop Warner coach helped him get a tryout. Browns coach Sam Rutigliano recommended to his friend Carl Peterson, then running the Philadelphia Stars of the USFL that he give Mills a look. Wearing #54, he became the anchor of their defense, helped them win two USFL Championships, and then followed his coach Jim Mora to the New Orleans Saints in 1986, where he donned the #51. He ended up being a 1x first team All-Pro, 2x second team All-Pro, 5x Pro Bowl player for the Saints and Panthers, had his number retired in Carolina, and was elected to both the Saints and Panther Hall of Fames, finishing his career with 1,265 tackles, 20.5 sacks, 11 interceptions, 22 forced fumbles, 23 fumble recoveries, and 4 defensive TDs. Sadly he passed away from cancer in 2005, but was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2022.
Takeo Spikes – Coming in second in the Approximate Value list, Spikes played from 1998 to 2012 and is often named to the list of best players to play in the NFL and never appear in a postseason game…although often he isn’t even the best #51 on that list, because Butkus also never played in a playoff game. Drafted 13th overall in 1998, Spikes donned #51 for five different teams–the Bengals, the Bills, the Eagles, the 49ers and the Chargers. He played in 219 games, amassed 1,431 tackles, 29 sacks, 16 forced fumbles, 18 fumble recoveries and 19 interceptions. Great numbers, but not enough that I would put him in the conversation with Butkus.
Randy Cross – Can’t have a number in the 50-79 range without discussing at least one offensive lineman…and Cross is higher on the AV list than Jim Richter by a good margin. Cross was a mainstay on the 49ers 80’s dynasty, starting 180 games at guard and center from 1976-1988, earning 3x first team All-Pro, 1x second team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowl and winning three Super Bowl championships during his career. As an offensive lineman…that’s about all he gets for accolades.
Other players wearing #51 worth mentioning include LB Ken Norton Jr., James Farrior, Jim Richter & Dominic Raiola. Most notable current players wearing #51 are Cesar Ruiz and David Long, although 3rd overall pick in the 2023 draft Will Anderson of the Houston Texans will likely move up that list quickly.
A couple weeks back, when the Minnesota Vikings beat the Carolina Panthers, Harrison Smith put up an insane stat line with 14 total tackles (8 solo, 6 assisted), 3 sacks and a forced fumble–apparently the first player in NFL history to put up that stat line. Being a lifelong Minnesota native & Viking fan, it started a lot of talk (or maybe amplified) talk locally about Smith being a Hall of Famer.
I’m not even clear a couple weeks later if I just never heard that talk before, or if it hadn’t really started until this season, which is very possibly his last season in purple (if not his last altogether). A lot of fans locally speculated that the team would move on after last season, given their salary cap woes–but Smith agreed to cut his salary from $14.7 million to $8 million (with $2 million in incentives) to play a 12th season with the Vikings, who brought in Brian Flores as their new defensive coordinator for 2023…a move that many saw as a perfect fit for a player like Smith.
It wasn’t that I didn’t know Smith was an amazing player–anyone regularly watching the team since he was taken 29th overall in 2012 knows he’s often been the lynchpin in the defense, with a penchant for making big plays when the team needed them most. He came into the 2023 season with 34 career interceptions, 16.5 sacks, and 946 tackles. While he has definitely slowed down, he finished the 2022 season with 85 tackles and 5 interceptions in 14 games, although was perhaps not used as aggressively in Ed Donatell’s new 3-4 scheme as he was in previous coach Mike Zimmer’s schemes. But I had never really given much consideration to whether or not he was Hall of Fame caliber…not to say I thought he wasn’t worthy of consideration–but that ultimately with so many top tier safeties in the league these days, he would be in that list of guys that would maybe be fringe HOF conversation after several years of debate.
But Tweets…err…Xs(?) like the one below after that Panthers game got me thinking–clearly a lot of Viking fans think it’s a forgone conclusion that Smith will get his gold jacket…so am I underrating him?
? 14 Tackles (8 Solo)
? 3 Sacks, 2 TFL
? 1 Strip Sack Returned for 6
? Game Sealing Sack
It’s easy to be a prisoner of the moment, but that was the BEST game of Harrison Smith’s HOF career. pic.twitter.com/mEszzUX5av
Another post I saw had this graphic, which made me think maybe I really was underrating just how good his career really has been:
Of course, we all know stats aren’t the only thing that will be considered for the Hall of Fame–and some stats like tackles are generally considered somewhat subjective, meaning they’ll have even less influence. His award profile according to ProFootballReference is 6x Pro Bowl, 1x All-Pro–which falls well short of Polamau’s 8x Pro Bowl, 4x All-Pro, 2x Super Bowl Champion, All-2000’s team, and 2010 Defensive Player of the Year award.
Not that it’s at all a perfect measurement, but the ProFootballReference “Similar Player” feature has Smith listed with Adrian Wilson, Eric Davis and Mark Carrier–solid players, but not exactly knocking on the door to Canton. Their HOF Monitor rating has him at 41.48–94th among DB, and compared to the average DB HOF score of 98.02. The lowest ranked player on that list of DB’s currently in the Hall of Fame is Dick LeBeau at 48.20. The lowest ranked more contemporary HOF player is John Lynch. Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Eric Weddle are all considerably higher than Smith–as are Chris Harris Jr., Stephon Gilmore and Tryann Mathieu
All of this makes me think that Smith has a much more difficult road to the Hall of Fame than many Vikings fans think–he’s a shoo-in for the Vikings Hall of Fame, possibly a Ring of Honor level player, and might even end up having his number retired (maybe sharing the honor with Paul Krause, who has been vocal about his belief that his number should be retired).
But what says the Zoneblitz.com readership, does Harrison Smith have any shot at Canton?
The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced the official list of 173 Modern Era Candidates for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, including nine first year eligible candidates.
Those nine include:
WR Brandon Marshall
WR Jordy Nelson
TE Antonio Gates
RB Jamaal Charles
OL TJ Lang
OL Josh Sitton
OL Max Unger
DL Haloti Ngata
DL Julius Peppers
The full list comprised of 94 offensive, 62 defensive and 17 special teams players can be seen on the Hall of Fame website. The list will be cut down to 25 semifinalists, announced in November.
On Zoneblitz, we obviously spend a lot of time thinking & discussing who should be elected to the Hall of Fame–but something I hadn’t really considered much was whether or not anyone should have their bust removed from Canton altogether. I’m not even sure if there is a way to go about doing that (given a couple people who haven’t been), although obviously there are some that are probably not really welcomed back each year for the ceremony, and likely not promoted in exhibits through the Hall.
What got me thinking about this was an article–or rather a listicle–that came up in my Facebook feed last week (although it was written back in January of 2022). It’s one of those articles designed to make you scroll for half a mile, see about 8-dozen ads, and then share it on your own socials–but I’m not going to make you go read the article (although you’re welcome to, if you’d like), unless you really want to see their logic.
While some of them <cough>OJ<cough> aren’t a big surprise, curious what you’ll think of the rest of the list. From SportScroll.com, here’s 30 NFL players that should be removed from the Pro Football Hall of Fame:
Came across a thread on Reddit about ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter going off on Mike Shanahan not being elected to the Hall of Fame this year. According to the article linked from DenverSports.com, Schefter’s rant was on the “Schlereth and Evans” show on 104.3 The Fan this morning. Schefter covered the Broncos early in his career, first at the the Rocky Mountain News and then the Denver Post.
“I think it’s a bunch of BS. Mike Shanahan is a Hall of Famer yesterday, today and tomorrow. I mean, its ridiculous. Who made these 50 people the voices of God and the deciders of fate? Like, who comes up with these stupid rules?”
Schefter said he does trust the voters, but he thinks there are other people who know even more about football. Ultimately, he feels the process feels unfair, and that unfairness is going to mean Shanahan waits longer.
“These are mistakes. Mike Shanahan is a Hall of Famer. He’s just not in the Hall of Fame. He belongs in the Hall of Fame, he should’ve been in before. He’s going to get in. But let’s just make him wait to 2024 or 2026… until the judges of the game, the arbiters of the truth, get to issue that pass to go to the Hall. Like, okay, give me a break.”
I generally don’t disagree that there could be tweaks to the process–but if I’m looking to make an argument for someone who hasn’t made it yet–especially as a non-player–I’m not sure Shanahan is the guy I hang that argument on. I have no issues with him making the Hall, but I also have no issues with him waiting while others get considered–and I don’t have a huge desire to make the Hall more inclusive, just to get some fringe guys that a small (but often vocal) fan base thinks belongs in because of what the player/coach/person meant to their team–it’s about what that person meant to the league and the game in general, and many players–even that we discuss on this site–just don’t fit that bill.
So apparently we started this post over three years ago, not too long after we posted about the best #79 in NFL History–which was at least somewhat special (to at least one of us at ZB) as it was the number that Managing Editor Andy wore in high school. The number 51 was even more special (to me), as it is the number that I wore in high school–that it came up in the random draw we’ve done for numbers so quickly after #79 was pure luck.
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