Betting Football: Week 2 Picks

by Tony | Sep 16, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

Well, our first week of picking football bets went almost as good as our straight up picks–we both hit two, and missed two.  Do I get bonus points for hitting on the “Upset” of the week? Spreads again coming from Vegas Locks.

Andy

New York Jets (-9.5) vs Jacksonville – I’m going to guess that Luke McCown isn’t going to go to New York and shock the world. The Jaguars will struggle to run the ball this week against the Jets and McCown doesn’t have the weapons or the talent to exploit Revis-Island. This line has actually gotten closer since the beginning of the week. All the easier to take New York. This game will be a blowout.

Pittsburgh (-14) vs Seattle – Pittsburgh got destroyed last week but this is a proud team playing at home. Seattle got destroyed last week and it is a sign of things to come. The Seahawks lack skill at the skill positions and mental toughness at the quarterback spot. The Steelers will get ahead early and pound away at Seattle, easily avenging their week one loss and covering the abnormally large spread possibly by the end of the first quarter. Tarvaris Jackson might regret signing with the Seahawks by halftime.

Houston (-3) at Miami – The Dolphins were supposed to have a solid defense, but they got shredded by Tom Brady to the tune of 517 yards passing. Matt Schaub won’t duplicate that number but he will have his way with Miami in a comfortable win on the road.

Upset of the week:

Indianapolis (+2.5 spread/+110 money line) vs Cleveland – I wasn’t really going to consider this enough of an upset to use it as my pick, but then I saw the Colts are +110 on the money line. Bettors have really lost faith in Indianapolis, who admittedly looked terrible against Houston last week. But the Colts are not devoid of talent. Kerry Collins is an old-but-serviceable quarterback with plenty of offensive weapons on whom he can rely. As he gets more comfortable with the system, the team will at lest be more competitive. Cleveland, meanwhile, has not done enough to this point (losing at home to Cincinnati = same old Browns) to warrant being a road favorite over a team like Indianapolis. I’m a little bit worried that the Browns might be able to pound the Colts into submission with Peyton Hillis. And if they do, then I might start to believe the folks putting Indy in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. But until then, I’ll rely on Cleveland’s long, illustrious history of finding ways to lose and I’ll bet the Colts, not just to cover the 2.5 but to win straight up.

Tony

New England (-7) vs. San Diego – San Diego didn’t look great against the Vikings, who themselves didn’t look that good. A lot of Charger fans want to claim that the team is finally shedding it’s slow start ways–I disagree, I think they just met an opponent last week that is off to an even slower start. This week, they have to travel east (a move that tends to kill west coast teams), and they have to face a team that last week put up almost 500 more yards than the Vikings put up against them.

New Orleans (-6.5) vs. Chicago – Chicago’s win against the Falcons was impressive, but let’s not give them too much credit–the defense still can’t be counted on to win every week for them. While Cutler put up 300+ yards, the running game was still not impressive, and he also turned the ball over. Meanwhile, the Saints offense was firing on all cylinders against the Packers–in the end, the defense couldn’t keep them in the game, but the Packers offense is a few steps above the Bears.

Green Bay @ Carolina: Over 46.5 points

I was tempted to pick Green Bay (-10), but Cam Newton’s week 1 performance impressed me. Not to the point where I think they’ll win, but at least to the point where it might be closer than most would think. Especially at Carolina, and especially if the Panthers can get DeAngelo Williams and/or Jonathan Stewart involved.

Upset of the week:

Tampa Bay (+3 spread/+130 money line) @ Minnesota – As much as it pains me to bet against my Vikings, I saw nothing in their week 1 performance that makes me think they should be favored in this game–even if it is the phantom 3 points for being at home advantage. I wouldn’t mind getting this one wrong, but even if I was in Vegas, I’d probably be putting something on the Bucs to win outright. Worst case, I’d at least get something out of watching another frustrating game for the purple.