No doubt about it—Robert Griffin III started his career with a bang on Sunday, with 320 yards, 2 TD passes with no interceptions, and 10 rushes for 48 yards (the gaudy fantasy stats), not to mention a 73% completion percentage, a 139.9 QB rating and most importantly, a win.
The start (and the hype) remind me of a quarterback that I doubted coming into the league last year, and whom RG3 has oft been compared to this year, for right or wrong—Cam Newton. There were some differences, of course—Newton threw for over 100 more yards in his first game, and threw a pick, and ran one in—but his rating was lower (110.4), his completion percentage was lower (65%), and he only put up 18 yards rushing. Of course, his team also lost to an average opponent, rather than beating a potential division winning team.
Even with all that, if I had him in any fantasy football leagues, I would start looking for the best way to sell high—possibly as early as between Week 2-3, but almost definitely after Week 6.
The hype surrounding RG3’s performance yesterday is astounding—but let’s not forget what happened to Newton after he broke out huge to start 2011:
Yes, Newton ended up throwing for 4,051 yards, but nearly 60% of those yards came in the first 8 games of the season, and almost 35% came in the first month of the season, compared to 19% in the more important final four games of the season
He threw for 21 touchdowns, which in today’s NFL is an extremely pedestrian number, especially with 17 picks; they were distributed fairly evenly throughout the year, at least
While Newton ran for an incredible 14 touchdowns, which catapulted him into many top 5 QB lists for 2011, he only ran for one touchdown in the final four weeks of the season, and half of his TD’s came in 3 individual games
Using a fairly standard scoring system, while Newton put up about 365 points in 2011, only 22% came in the final four weeks of the season, and less than half came in the second half of the year
So how does Newton’s performance lead to a sell high conclusion on Griffin? Even if you don’t think they are similar quarterbacks, most likely, if Griffin continues strong in his first few games, he will face exactly what Newton did–teams starting to scheme for specifically for Newton’s strengths, which forced him to change his game. Not to say he didn’t make some adjustments—his 3 passing TD/1 rushing TD performance in Week 16 presumably won a lot of teams their league’s title last year—if they survived Week 14 & 15, and if they made it to the playoffs at all.
It adds up to perfect scenario for RG3 owners to sell high early in the season, especially as he starts to face defenses tougher than the Saints.
He has nice match-ups in Week 2 (although the Rams do have improved corner play) and Week 6 (Minnesota)
Possibly nice match-ups against the Buccaneers (Week 4, the team that Newton shredded in Week 16 last year) and Atlanta in Week 5.
By Week 7, though, division games start for the Redskins—and the Giants in particular have a long history of making MVP quarterbacks look average.
Add in a fantasy playoff schedule that features the Ravens in Week 14 (possibly with Terrell Suggs back) and Eagles in Week 16 (with possible playoff implications on the line),
The more I look at it, the more the prospect of upgrading potentially a couple of spots by trading high on RG3 makes sense. What do some RG3 fantasy owners think about it?
The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced that Defensive Tackle Curley Culp and Linebacker Dave Robinson are the senior committee nominees for the Class of 2013. They will be voted on with the five other finalists on the Saturday before the Super Bowl.
Culp was drafted in the second round out of Arizona State by the Denver Broncos in 1968, but actually started his career in the AFL with the Kansas City Chiefs, where he was an important cog in the defensive line that shut down the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV. With Culp having signed t play in the World Football League in 1975, the Chiefs traded him to Houston (for John Matuszak), where he was a four time Pro Bowler (on top of two times with the Chiefs) and one-time All-Pro. He finished his career in Detroit for the final season and a half, retiring after the 1981 season.
Robinson was a first round draft pick of the Green Bay Packers in 1963, playing Linebacker for all five of Vince Lombardi’s championship teams. He was selected to three Pro Bowls in his career, one time All-Pro, and was named to the NFL all decade team for the 1960’s.
From a Zoneblitz perspective, in the 370+ comments left on our 2013 Hall of Fame Prediction post, Culp and Robinson have both been mentioned at least a few times, although not nearly as often as another Packer (Jerry Kramer) or another Robinson (Johnny), and never appeared to be favorites for the nominations.
So what say you Zoneblitz, will Culp and/or Robinson get in, and are they worthy nominees?
We’ve reached the dog days of the NFL–I consider myself a pretty big fan of the NFL, and even I can’t get that jazzed up about OTA’s. And it’s not just because my team went 3-13 last year–seriously, if you get excited about OTA’s, you might need professional counseling. Or you might be a Packer fan.
While there’s some great debate going on in our annual Hall of Fame thread, we’ve decided to fill the dead space with a series of posts that has been kicking around in my head for some time, and recently came back to the front of my brain when I heard a local radio host discussing the uniform number choice of a highly touted rookie (in this case it was hockey, but that doesn’t matter).
A few years back I bought a book that discusses, across all professional sports, who the best players to wear each number was. Of course, some of the numbers skew towards football (50-98, where fewer athletes in other sports wear numbers that high regularly), but I also thought some of the lower numbers tended to focus more on baseball/basketball than I would have expected.
So I figured we would start a series of posts discussing each number in the NFL (randomly) and who wore that number the best in the history of the league (we’ll gladly consider AFL, and even some CFL and USFL where applicable), and allow the fans to vote for who they think was the best.
The first number up is one that has had a significant tradition of star players: #81
As the excitement of the announcement of the Class of 2012 has subsided, and we’re getting ready to welcome potential members of the Hall of Fame Class of 2030 (give or take) into the league, it’s time to once again start to lay out our projections for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2013.
First, a real quick recap of the non-senior committee 2012 finalists:
Inducted Into the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012:
Dermontti Dawson
Chris Doleman
Cortez Kennedy
Curtis Martin
Willie Roaf
Final five candidates not inducted: Bill Parcells
Cris Carter
Charles Haley
Andre Reed
Aeneas Williams
Rest of the Final 15 not included: Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Edward DeBartolo Jr.
Kevin Greene
Will Shields
In your average year, we make the assumption that any of the finalists that are eligible to return will make the finalists list again the following year. However, there are a few candidates in 2013 that may not, for various reasons:
Bill Parcells – Normally there is no way one of the top 10 guys fall off the list, unless they reach the senior candidate stage. But normally these guys aren’t flirting with resuming their careers either. Parcells is reportedly the top choice of Sean Payton to replace him during his one year suspension, which would kick Parcells back off the list. Just the rumors that Parcells might take the job alone might force him down, even if he doesn’t end up taking the job.
Edward DeBartolo Jr. – Depending on who you ask, DeBartolo is a fringe candidate for the Hall at best, especially given the circumstances around his departure from the league. With a strong class coming in, he might struggle to make the top 15 again.
Kevin Greene – Greene is a player that a lot of people have mentioned in the years we’ve been doing Hall of Fame predictions, but strictly from the eye-test, he’s always felt like a fringe player to us. Then again, frankly Richard Dent, John Randle, Cortez Kennedy and Chris Doleman would have been in that same category, and all four of them have been chosen. But if the class is strong enough, Greene might face some difficulties.
As mentioned above, the list of players eligible for the first time in 2013 is relatively strong—although that might end up working against some of them, as they possibly could split votes since many played similar positions.
The list is headed by:
Guard/Tackle Larry Allen – 11 Pro Bowls, six first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 90’s & 00’s Tackle Jonathan Ogden – 11 Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 00’s Defensive Tackle Warren Sapp – seven Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 90’s & 00’s Defensive End Michael Strahan – seven Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 00’s
Also on the list: Defensive Lineman Bryant Young
Safety John Lynch
Running Back Priest Holmes
Quarterback Steve McNair
Kicker Morten Andersen
Any of the first list could arguably be first year inductions, and almost assuredly will be finalists. The second set will have a more difficult time, but still could easily make the final 25. A couple might sneak into the final 15.
Steve Atwater
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Clay Matthews
Karl Mecklenburg
Donnie Shell
Paul Tagliabue
Steve Tasker
Ron Wolf
George Young
Not a terribly strong list of semifinalists, with a special teamer, a couple of good but not great linebackers that were in the running for the first time last year and a few contributors that don’t strike us as likely inductees in the near term. So, our list of predicted 2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Finalists:
Larry Allen
Morten Andersen
Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Cris Carter
Kevin Greene
Charles Haley
John Lynch
Jonathan Ogden
Andre Reed
Warren Sapp
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Aeneas Williams
Ron Wolf
That gives us five first time finalists and only one contributor on the list. And plenty of questions:
Will the voters finally start to clear up the waiting list at WR with Brown, Carter and Reed, and Marvin Harrison coming into the picture next year?
With three strong offensive linemen on the list, and Walter Jones breathing down their neck in 2014 (not to mention Kevin Mawae, Chris Samuels and Orlando Pace joining the list the couple years after), do one or two make it, or do their votes cancel each other out and create another log jam?
Similar scenario with defensive linemen, where Haley, Sapp and Strahan could be competing for votes?
This year, we’ve decided to make separate picks here at Zoneblitz, and will finally officially make a contest where readers can submit their picks.
Our 2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Inductees:
Andy
Tony
Larry Allen
Cris Carter
Jonathan Ogden
Andre Reed
Charles Haley
Larry Allen
Cris Carter
Aeneas Williams
John Lynch
Charles Haley
Andy: It’d be unusual for multiple offensive linemen to get elected. But it happened in 2011 with two great candidates and I think in 2012 the nominees are too good to ignore. Will Shields deserves to get in but he will have to wait one more season, as the profiles of Allen and Ogden are both slightly more impressive, especially if using Super Bowl rings as a tiebreaker (I’m also hoping to see former Packers guard Jerry Kramer get another shot at the Hall as a senior candidate, which might make it that much more difficult for Shields to get in this year).
Charles Haley was a weird and possibly troubled dude while playing in the NFL, if you believe what you read. And his profile, at five Pro Bowls and two first place All Pro lists, is less than I would have expected. But you can’t argue with results. He helped San Francisco get to Super Bowls. And then when he went to Dallas, the Cowboys went to Super Bowls. Haley is a hall of famer.
I do believe the Hall of Fame voters will feel the pressure of rising criticism toward their inability to get at least one of the wide receivers into the Hall. Reed seems to have the lead in terms of support. It’s my belief that Brown has a slight edge in deserving to be enshrined first, though I think he probably ultimately will be the last of the three. I’m guessing voters ultimately move toward Carter with the other two following in the next few years. If the voters fail at this again, then I think a spot opens for Jerome Bettis to join the class of 2013. As it is, I see him waiting one more year.
The fifth spot was tough. I think Shields is the most deserving, but that would buck two trends: Too much of a slant toward offensive players and too many offensive linemen. So unfortunately he waits one more year. I’ll go with John Lynch being the surprise enshrinee. He went to nine Pro Bowls. He only has two All Pro selections. But he helped a once-embarrassing Tampa Bay franchise make the Super Bowl. And he’s part of an era where safeties gained tremendously in prominence. I think we’ll see this position honored more and more as guys like Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu hang ’em up.
Tony: I was all over the board this year with my choices. At one point or another I’ve had Bettis, Brown, Ogden, and Shields all making it—and I think all are going to get there. In fact, Shields probably deserved it last year, although I think if Randall McDaniel had to wait until year three, all guards should have to wait. Ogden could also easily claim a first year entry, but in the end I don’t see the non-glamor positions getting more than one guy in two years in a row. I was tempted to go really crazy and put all three wide receivers in one class—I do think that the criticism over not putting in any last year reached a new level, and at least some voters will feel obligated to “correct” this.
In the end, I left Bettis and Brown off because they didn’t make the final 10 this past year. In fact, this may be overall one of the safest sets of picks out there, with four of the five picks being from the final 10 in the 2012 class (with Parcells being the odd one out. We left him off our finalist list, assuming he will not be eligible).
So who are your picks? Let us know in the comments below.
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