NFL Picks, 2012 Season Week 2

by | Sep 11, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Picks

When we were talking about ways to make the weekly pick segment more interesting we decided to add a team blogger to the mix. I think we’re going to change the segment up on the fly and try to see if we can make sure that whoever we contact for “celebrity blogger” status is covering a team that had something interesting happen the previous week.

This week we have two: Kevin Ewoldt, managing editor of Hogs Haven, and Steven Mullenax, editor of The Landry Hat. The Landry Hat got to watch its underdog Dallas Cowboys convincingly put it to the New York Giants in the season opener last Wednesday.

Mullenax celebrated his team’s win with a series of A-Team awards, singling out the performances of a number of Cowboys’ players from the win.

One of the most exciting parts of week one was watching the performance of Robert Griffin III, or RGIII, or as Ewoldt calls him, RG!!!. While the Redskins have a way to go, the team appears to finally have a franchise quarterback for the first time in 20 years, much to the delight of Ewoldt, managing editor of Hogs Haven.

He acknowledges the advantages Washington had in preparing for the game, which included distractions from bounty-gate, the absence of head coach Sean Payton and the lack of any ability to game-plan against the Redskins’ rookie quarterback. But Ewoldt also expressed excitement at how Griffin was able to live up to — and perhaps exceed – an almost insurmountable amount of hype leading up to the opener.

“It’ll be very interesting to see how RGIII plays against the Rams,” he says. “He took a lot of hits despite that great performance and how the secret is out on our personnel. If he’s going to play 16 weeks, the Redskins need to protect him better. But it’s clear Washington D.C. finally has a franchise-worthy QB again. … It only took us 20 years and three extra draft picks.”

Last week’s guest, Neal Coolong from Behind the Steel Curtain, beat us both with his Minnesota, NY Jets and Tampa Bay picks. For purposes of keeping score, we’ll use the score from whichever of the two guests gets the most games correct.

Celebrity Bloggers 11-5
Tony 8-8
Andy 8-8

Without further ado, here are all four of our thoughts on who will win in week two:
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Sell High on RG3

by | Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 season, Fantasy Football

No doubt about it—Robert Griffin III started his career with a bang on Sunday, with 320 yards, 2 TD passes with no interceptions, and 10 rushes for 48 yards (the gaudy fantasy stats), not to mention a 73% completion percentage, a 139.9 QB rating and most importantly, a win.

The start (and the hype) remind me of a quarterback that I doubted coming into the league last year, and whom RG3 has oft been compared to this year, for right or wrong—Cam Newton. There were some differences, of course—Newton threw for over 100 more yards in his first game, and threw a pick, and ran one in—but his rating was lower (110.4), his completion percentage was lower (65%), and he only put up 18 yards rushing. Of course, his team also lost to an average opponent, rather than beating a potential division winning team.

Even with all that, if I had him in any fantasy football leagues, I would start looking for the best way to sell high—possibly as early as between Week 2-3, but almost definitely after Week 6.

The hype surrounding RG3’s performance yesterday is astounding—but let’s not forget what happened to Newton after he broke out huge to start 2011:

  • Yes, Newton ended up throwing for 4,051 yards, but nearly 60% of those yards came in the first 8 games of the season, and almost 35% came in the first month of the season, compared to 19% in the more important final four games of the season
  • He threw for 21 touchdowns, which in today’s NFL is an extremely pedestrian number, especially with 17 picks; they were distributed fairly evenly throughout the year, at least
  • While Newton ran for an incredible 14 touchdowns, which catapulted him into many top 5 QB lists for 2011, he only ran for one touchdown in the final four weeks of the season, and half of his TD’s came in 3 individual games
  • Using a fairly standard scoring system, while Newton put up about 365 points in 2011, only 22% came in the final four weeks of the season, and less than half came in the second half of the year

So how does Newton’s performance lead to a sell high conclusion on Griffin? Even if you don’t think they are similar quarterbacks, most likely, if Griffin continues strong in his first few games, he will face exactly what Newton did–teams starting to scheme for specifically for Newton’s strengths, which forced him to change his game. Not to say he didn’t make some adjustments—his 3 passing TD/1 rushing TD performance in Week 16 presumably won a lot of teams their league’s title last year—if they survived Week 14 & 15, and if they made it to the playoffs at all.

It adds up to perfect scenario for RG3 owners to sell high early in the season, especially as he starts to face defenses tougher than the Saints.

  • He has nice match-ups in Week 2 (although the Rams do have improved corner play) and Week 6 (Minnesota)
  • Possibly nice match-ups against the Buccaneers (Week 4, the team that Newton shredded in Week 16 last year) and Atlanta in Week 5.
  • By Week 7, though, division games start for the Redskins—and the Giants in particular have a long history of making MVP quarterbacks look average.
  • Add in a fantasy playoff schedule that features the Ravens in Week 14 (possibly with Terrell Suggs back) and Eagles in Week 16 (with possible playoff implications on the line),

The more I look at it, the more the prospect of upgrading potentially a couple of spots by trading high on RG3 makes sense. What do some RG3 fantasy owners think about it?

Culp, Robinson are 2013 Senior Nominees for Hall of Fame

by | Aug 22, 2012 | Hall of Fame

The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced that Defensive Tackle Curley Culp and Linebacker Dave Robinson are the senior committee nominees for the Class of 2013. They will be voted on with the five other finalists on the Saturday before the Super Bowl.

Culp was drafted in the second round out of Arizona State by the Denver Broncos in 1968, but actually started his career in the AFL with the Kansas City Chiefs, where he was an important cog in the defensive line that shut down the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV. With Culp having signed t play in the World Football League in 1975, the Chiefs traded him to Houston (for John Matuszak), where he was a four time Pro Bowler (on top of two times with the Chiefs) and one-time All-Pro. He finished his career in Detroit for the final season and a half, retiring after the 1981 season.

Robinson was a first round draft pick of the Green Bay Packers in 1963, playing Linebacker for all five of Vince Lombardi’s championship teams. He was selected to three Pro Bowls in his career, one time All-Pro, and was named to the NFL all decade team for the 1960’s.

From a Zoneblitz perspective, in the 370+ comments left on our 2013 Hall of Fame Prediction post, Culp and Robinson have both been mentioned at least a few times, although not nearly as often as another Packer (Jerry Kramer) or another Robinson (Johnny), and never appeared to be favorites for the nominations.

So what say you Zoneblitz, will Culp and/or Robinson get in, and are they worthy nominees?

Will Curley Culp and Dave Robinson be inducted in the Class of 2013?

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By the Numbers: Best #81 in NFL History

By the Numbers: Best #81 in NFL History

by | May 29, 2012 | 80's, By the Numbers, Hall of Fame

We’ve reached the dog days of the NFL–I consider myself a pretty big fan of the NFL, and even I can’t get that jazzed up about OTA’s. And it’s not just because my team went 3-13 last year–seriously, if you get excited about OTA’s, you might need professional counseling. Or you might be a Packer fan.

While there’s some great debate going on in our annual Hall of Fame thread, we’ve decided to fill the dead space with a series of posts that has been kicking around in my head for some time, and recently came back to the front of my brain when I heard a local radio host discussing the uniform number choice of a highly touted rookie (in this case it was hockey, but that doesn’t matter).

A few years back I bought a book that discusses, across all professional sports, who the best players to wear each number was. Of course, some of the numbers skew towards football (50-98, where fewer athletes in other sports wear numbers that high regularly), but I also thought some of the lower numbers tended to focus more on baseball/basketball than I would have expected.

So I figured we would start a series of posts discussing each number in the NFL (randomly) and who wore that number the best in the history of the league (we’ll gladly consider AFL, and even some CFL and USFL where applicable), and allow the fans to vote for who they think was the best.

The first number up is one that has had a significant tradition of star players: #81

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Donovan McNabb: Hall of Famer (Just Ask Him)

by | Apr 20, 2012 | Hall of Fame

Over the past few years, there’s been a lot of discussion about the Pro Football Hall of Fame voting process being flawed. We’ve discussed it. People thinking their specific guy (Will Shields, Jerome Bettis, Bill Parcells, Cris Carter) deserves to be there have discussed it. Even people thinking the entire league are being blacklisted discuss it.

But what are some possible solutions to the problem? Here’s one that apparently shouldn’t be on the list – let the players vote.

For Eagles, Redskins and Vikings quarterback Donovan McNabb, during an appearance on a FoxSports.com show, said he would vote for himself for the Hall of Fame: (more…)