by Tony | Nov 6, 2017 | 2017 Season, 2018 Season, NFL Draft
With Week 9 set to wrap up tonight, we’ve got a pretty good idea of who’s fighting foe the playoffs, versus who’s fighting for jobs, both on the sidelines and on the field.
But who’s leading the pack for the 1st overall pick?
There are currently 10 teams that would seem to have at least a shot at ending up first overall, although the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears already all have 3 wins (versus 5 losses), meaning their shot is slim compared to the rest of this list–although they all are starting at possible top 10 picks, which still isn’t a great spot to be in.
The Indianapolis Colts also have just three wins, but are already at 6 losses with their bye still coming up in a couple of weeks, so they’re a bit higher in the running–they also have a tough schedule remaining, with only one game that I’ve got them pegged to win right now (Week 15 at Baltimore) and a winnable game in Houston against the Texans, now that DeShaun Watson is out, but could just as easily end up 3-13.
But the four teams with the worst current records also have formidable (for them) schedules, which gives them the upper hand:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Current Record: 2-6; Projected Record: 3-13)
The Bucs got thrashed by the Saints yesterday, and may lose Mike Evans for an extra game thanks to his fight, and Jameis Winston for even longer with a shoulder injury. Expectations were a lot higher for this team, but of the three remaining games that appear to be winnable (Week 10 against the Jets, Week 11 against the Dolphins, and Week 13 in Green Bay), with Winston hurt, I currently only have them pegged to win one–the Green Bay game, which could itself be a long shot on the road.
New York Giants (Current Record: 1-7; Projected Record: 3-13)
Another team that had high expectations coming into the season, but never came together and lost several key players to injuries. Even getting to three wins might be extremely difficult, as I have them beating the Cowboys in New York (Week 14), as Ezekiel Elliott might finally be sitting out for his suspension, and Week 16 against the Cardinals, who theoretically might have David Johnson back. They also face the 49ers in Week 10, which is a winnable game–but in San Francisco, I’m actually giving the edge to the 49ers again. More on that below.
Cleveland Browns (Current Record: 0-9; Projected Record: 3-13)
Of the terrible teams, the Browns might actually have the “easiest” remaining schedule–they have three games that I’ve pegged them to win, including Week 12 in Cincinnati (where the Bengals have to be close to quitting on Marvin Lewis…again), Week 14 against Green Bay (assuming Aaron Rodgers isn’t back), and Week 16 at Chicago (where John Fox may find himself on yet another hot seat). They also have the beatable Ravens in Week 15, and a Pittsburgh Steelers team in Week 17 that may have the division and first round bye locked up. Still, it’s the Browns, so my 3-13 might be optimistic.
San Francisco 49ers (Current Record: 0-9; Projected Record: 2-14)
When I started to look at this last week (as a part of the Who Wins First article from last week), I had the 49ers pegged for beating the Cardinals yesterday. That obviously didn’t happen. As mentioned above, I am still giving them the benefit of the doubt in hosting the Giants this week, but after that…there’s not much there, even if they get Jimmy Garoppolo up and running. They face a tough Seattle team out of the bye, then have the last game that I currently have them pegged to win when they go to Chicago. They travel to Houston the next week – again, if Garoppolo is playing, they might have a shot – but if not…ending the season with losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and the LA Rams almost seems inevitable.
Of course, what will each team do with the first overall pick if they have it is the next big question….would the Browns finally take a “Franchise” QB, or would they once again slide back for draft capital, especially with the rumors that some of the top QBs don’t want to go there. Would the 49ers resign Garoppolo and look to help another position? Would the Giants consider pulling a Peyton by drafting Eli Manning’s replacement? Would the Buccaneers consider taking another QB at the #1 overall spot, given the lack of progression from Jameis Winston?
Those are the questions that have already started swirling for these four teams that are facing a final 8 games with little else to look forward to…
by Tony | Oct 31, 2017 | 2017 Season
With both the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers sitting at 0-8, I’ve been doing a little research into winless streaks to start NFL seasons in the NFL, as it seems like both teams at this point are possibly bad enough that they could end up challenging the 2008 Detroit Lions to become the next team to go winless in a 16 game season.
So far in my research, it appears that the last time we had two teams start the season 0-8 was in 2013, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars both started with the dubious mark.
In that season, both teams managed to pull out their first win in Week 10, with Jacksonville winning first on Sunday (coming off a Week 9 bye) over the Tennessee Titans, and the Bucs pulling out a Monday night victory over the Miami Dolphins, in what I’m sure was yet another ratings boon for ESPN.
This season, Cleveland is heading into a Week 9 bye after falling to the Minnesota Vikings in London in week 8. The Browns have already lost their best player for the season, in tackle Joe Thomas, and have already started two different quarterbacks (and played three) who have combined for a 7 TD to 17 INT ratio.
The 49ers head into week 9 with two things going for them–first, as of last night, they acquired New England Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, in a deal they hope works out better than their last trade for a Patriots quarterback. While there’s no word yet on whether or not Garoppolo will play in Week 9 (seems a stretch), the 49ers will also be facing an Arizona Cardinals team that is without starting RB David Johnson and QB Carson Palmer. In my eyes, this makes the Week 9 matchup for the 49ers extremely winnable–and I’ve gone so far as to pick them in our weekly picks (albeit with the last selection in our alternating format).
The 49ers nearly beat the Cardinals with Carson Palmer in week 4, losing 18-15 in the first of two consecutive overtime games, and the 3rd in a stretch of five games they lost by a field goal or less. Unfortunately, their last two losses have been blowouts, losing a combined 73-20, making the decision to start CJ Beathard over Brian Hoyer a significant question, and making the need to make a move for Garoppolo even more obvious.
And if the 49ers don’t win in Week 9, there’s still a shot they could taste victory before the Browns, as the Browns come back from the bye with a trip to Detroit to play the Lions, while the 49ers host the New York Giants, who have nearly matched the ineptitude of the two teams in question.
After that, the 49ers face their bye week, while the Browns host the suddenly formidable Jacksonville Jaguars. If both teams are winless at that point, the Browns have the best chance in week 12, traveling to Cincinnati, while the 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks.
Over the course of the rest of the year, by my estimation there appears to be 4 winnable games for Cleveland on the schedule (@ Cincinnati, @ LA Chargers, vs. Green Bay, and @ Chicago)–although the Browns could just as easily lose all four. After their game against the Giants, I only see one more game that looks very winnable for the 49ers, their home game against Chicago–although who knows what Garoppolo could do for the team.
My final prediction? Both teams end up 2-12, vying for the first pick in the draft–which both teams would be looking to trade.
by Tony | Aug 4, 2017 | Hall of Fame
With Morten Andersen, Terrell Davis, Jason Taylor, LaDainian Tomlinson, Kurt Warner, Kenny Easley and Jerry Jones set to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame tonight, figured we were just a bit overdue for our annual Hall of Fame prediction for next year.
Of course, we start with the finalists that didn’t make the cut in 2017.
The final five cut:
Tony Boselli, T, Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Dawkins, S, Philadelphia Eagles/Denver Broncos
John Lynch, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Denver Broncos
Ty Law, CB, New England Patriots/New York Jets/Kansas City/Denver Broncos
Kevin Mawae, C, Seattle Seahawks/New York Jets/Tennessee Titans
Our take: No reason these five won’t be finalists again in 2018.
The first five finalists eliminated:
Isaac Bruce, WR, LA/St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers
Don Coryell, Coach, San Diego Chargers
Alan Faneca, G, Pittsburgh Steelers/New York Jets/Arizona Cardinals
Joe Jacoby, T, Washington Redskins
Terrell Owens, WR, San Francisco 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys/Buffalo Bills/Cincinnati Bengals
Tony’s take: Although interest in Coryell seems to ebb and flow, he has been a finalist for three straight years (4 overall), so it would seem unlikely that he will drop. It took Joe Jacoby years to make the finalist list, but after being a semifinalist seven times, he’s finally been a finalist the last two years. He faces his final year as a modern-era candidate, so he’s unlikely to drop.
Faneca and Owens have each made the finalist list twice, and although Owens’ attitude after last year’s “snub” could turn some more voters off, it’s unlikely to cost him his spot as a finalist. Isaac Bruce was a finalist for the first time last year—if anyone were to drop from the list this year, it’s likely him—but we don’t see that happening.
Andy’s take: I don’t agree on several of these. Bruce, to me, is not even the most worthy WR off the Greatest Show on Turf. Torry Holt, who dropped out as a semifinalist last year, deserves it more. I’ll predict voters realize the error of their ways and replace Bruce with Holt.
I also think, right or wrong, that Coryell will start to fade from view a bit. I still believe Jimmy Johnson should have been inducted before Tony Dungy and I’ll suggest the former Cowboys coach will knock Coryell from the final 15. It may be an argument for later, but I think coaches need to be considered with contributors or as their own separate category. There are a number of head guys and assistants who would be solid, legitimate Hall candidates who will never get noticed under the current system.
I also think there are others who could get bumped from this list, as there is a solid group of first-time eligible players coming up this year too. Jacoby jumps out at me. I think there’s a good chance it’s going to be up to the senior committee to ultimately determine his fate.
Semifinalists
There were actually 11 additional names cut between the Semifinalist and Finalist stage:
Steve Atwater, S, Denver Broncos/New York Jets (finalist in 2016)
Roger Craig, RB, San Francisco 49ers/Los Angeles Raiders/Minnesota Vikings
Chris Hinton, T/G, Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts/Atlanta Falcons/Minnesota Vikings
Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis Rams/Jacksonville Jaguars
Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis Colts/Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks (finalist in 2016)
Jimmy Johnson, Coach, Dallas Cowboys/Miami Dolphins
Mike Kenn, T, Atlanta Falcons
Clay Matthews, LB, Cleveland Browns/Atlanta Falcons
Karl Mecklenburg, LB, Denver Broncos
Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Darren Woodson, S, Dallas Cowboys
Tony’s Take: Despite what I’m guessing Steelers fans will say about Hines Ward, I personally see Holt, James and possibly Atwater as the most likely to ascend to the finalist stage — possibly with Jimmy Johnson as a wildcard, although in recent years I’ve backed off on my opinion of his worthiness to the Hall.
The bigger issue that many in this list face are some of the first-time eligible players coming into the list:
Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens – Basically a sure thing finalist, and by far the best bet to make it all the way to Canton in his first year. In fact, probably higher on the list than any of last year’s finalists.
Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota Vikings/Oakland Raiders/New England Patriots/Tennessee Titans/San Francisco 49ers – Likely a lock to make the finalist list, but not as sure of a lock to make the Hall in his first as many make him out to be. His attitude, combined with the uphill battle that many WR face in being elected may leave him on the outside for a few years, just like Owens.
Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears – I’m on the record repeatedly as saying that Urlacher was overrated, as he seemed to disappear when he didn’t have great defensive tackles clearing the path for him. That being said, he had a great career, and is likely to make the finalist cut at a minimum.
Ronde Barber, CB/S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Along with Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks (already both in Canton) and Lynch, Barber was part of the nucleus that brought a Lombardi Trophy to Tampa. Not sure it’s enough in year one, but his numbers will almost assuredly get him there someday—along with his brother Tiki (of course, Tiki will have to buy a ticket).
Steve Hutchinson, G, Seattle Seahawks/Minnesota Vikings – Hutch will not make the Hall of Fame this year, as there are several other Offensive Lineman ahead of him on the list, and interior lineman struggle in their first couple of years, possibly due to the anonymity of their job (heck, Hutchinson’s write up on the Hall of Fame site isn’t even accurate). He should crack the semi-finalist list, and might sneak into the finalist list, although it wouldn’t be a travesty if he had to wait a couple of years—even Randall McDaniel had to wait.
Richard Seymour, DL, New England Patriots/Oakland Raiders – Not likely to make the finalist list, but another solid semi-finalist that will likely start to make a push in a few years.
Other first-year eligible: Matt Birk, Keith Brooking, Plaxico Burress, Nate Clements, Leonard Davis, Donald Driver, Casey Hampton, Jason Hanson, Jeff Saturday, Takeo Spikes, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adrian Wilson, Antoine Winfield
Our picks for Finalist:
| Tony |
Andy |
| Boselli |
Boselli |
| Bruce |
Atwater |
| Coryell |
Johnson |
| Dawkins |
Dawkins |
| Faneca |
Faneca |
| Holt |
Holt |
| Jacoby |
Hutchinson |
| James |
James |
| Law |
Law |
| Lewis |
Lewis |
| Lynch |
Lynch |
| Mawae |
Mawae |
| Moss |
Moss |
| Owens |
Owens |
| Urlacher |
Urlacher |
And our picks for the final five (who, per usual, will all be elected):
| Tony |
Andy |
| Lewis |
Lewis |
| Dawkins |
Dawkins |
| Lynch |
Owens |
| Mawae |
Faneca |
| Owens |
Mawae |
Andy’s take: Lewis is a no-brainer and Owens has probably served his time. Mawae was clearly the best center of his era. I’d be fine with Lynch but with the struggles safeties have getting in, I’m going to call it a victory as long as either he or Dawkins gets in. I’ll throw in Alan Faneca and his nine Pro Bowls as my one disagreement with Tony.
I’m sure several of you have left your thoughts on our other posts, but let’s hear it again in the comments–who does everyone have on their Class of 2018 Pro Football Hall of Fame List?
by Tony | Apr 4, 2017 | 2017 Season, Hall of Fame
With the breaking news that the four-letter network just can’t stop talking about–that Tony Romo is taking his ball and going home…or to the broadcast booth to replace another former NFC East quarterback, the inevitable question has come up multiple times today with said network on as background noise in the office (and with Stephen A. Smith, noise is the operative word):
DALLAS – DEC 14: Taken in Texas Stadium on Sunday, December 14, 2008. Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo on the sideline during a game with the NY Giants speaking with Jason Garrett.
Is Tony Romo a Hall of Fame quarterback?
His resume is impressive–at least for a non-drafted free agent playing the most important position under for the biggest brand in professional sports today. And if I’ve heard right, most of the blowhards have him going into the Hall at some point.
Romo started 127 games in his 13 year career (playing in 156), finishing with a 78-49 regular season record. He completed 65.3% of his passes, threw for 34,183 yards, and had a 248-117 TD to INT ratio. His career QB Rating was 97.1.
Of course, the flip side of things–he was 2-4 in the four playoff appearances he led the Cowboys to. He did throw for 8 TDs to 2 INTs in the playoffs, but his completion % dropped to 61.6%, and his rating dropped to 93.0.
Perhaps even more telling–he had just four Pro Bowl appearances (in an era when some questionable names appeared in the Pro Bowl), and had zero All-Pro selections. Whie his career passer rating ranks as 4th all-time (behind Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady), his career numbers also put him at 29th all-time in Yardage and 21st in touchdowns. He averaged less than 10 starts per season in his career (partly due to injury, partly due to not starting until his third season), starting all 16 just four times–and only three times in his career did he lead the team to more than 8 wins (and four more seasons at 8 wins–two of which were injury shortened).
At the end of the day, when you look at the era he played in, it would be my opinion that Romo doesn’t stack up to the competition to make the cut for the Hall–Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are locks, Rodgers almost certainly is, and there is still Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (multiple time Super Bowl winners), not to mention younger guys like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco with a lot of years left to pad their profiles.
Romo had a decent career, that had he not spent a lot of the last few years injured, may have warranted more of a look–but the more I look at it, I’m not even sure why their is as much coverage being devoted to it as their is–at the end of the day, we’re talking about a guy that started fewer games, won fewer playoff games, appeared in fewer Super Bowls and won fewer MVPs than Rich Gannon–so where is the Gannon for Hall of Fame discussion?
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Not sure if anyone saw this : https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-official-records-to-finally-incorporate-all-america-football-conference-statistics
100% agreed on the locks for the seniors if we had a fifth slot my pick would either be Matheson…
hard to say if momentum is gathering, but we had 10 seniors elected in 2020 centennial class, doesn't seem unreasonable…
I'm sold on 4 of them Brian not quite sold on Benton just yet
A special election could continue to gather momentum but it would probably only be 3-5 players at the most. Its…