by Tony | Oct 31, 2017 | 2017 Season
With both the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers sitting at 0-8, I’ve been doing a little research into winless streaks to start NFL seasons in the NFL, as it seems like both teams at this point are possibly bad enough that they could end up challenging the 2008 Detroit Lions to become the next team to go winless in a 16 game season.
So far in my research, it appears that the last time we had two teams start the season 0-8 was in 2013, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars both started with the dubious mark.
In that season, both teams managed to pull out their first win in Week 10, with Jacksonville winning first on Sunday (coming off a Week 9 bye) over the Tennessee Titans, and the Bucs pulling out a Monday night victory over the Miami Dolphins, in what I’m sure was yet another ratings boon for ESPN.
This season, Cleveland is heading into a Week 9 bye after falling to the Minnesota Vikings in London in week 8. The Browns have already lost their best player for the season, in tackle Joe Thomas, and have already started two different quarterbacks (and played three) who have combined for a 7 TD to 17 INT ratio.
The 49ers head into week 9 with two things going for them–first, as of last night, they acquired New England Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, in a deal they hope works out better than their last trade for a Patriots quarterback. While there’s no word yet on whether or not Garoppolo will play in Week 9 (seems a stretch), the 49ers will also be facing an Arizona Cardinals team that is without starting RB David Johnson and QB Carson Palmer. In my eyes, this makes the Week 9 matchup for the 49ers extremely winnable–and I’ve gone so far as to pick them in our weekly picks (albeit with the last selection in our alternating format).
The 49ers nearly beat the Cardinals with Carson Palmer in week 4, losing 18-15 in the first of two consecutive overtime games, and the 3rd in a stretch of five games they lost by a field goal or less. Unfortunately, their last two losses have been blowouts, losing a combined 73-20, making the decision to start CJ Beathard over Brian Hoyer a significant question, and making the need to make a move for Garoppolo even more obvious.
And if the 49ers don’t win in Week 9, there’s still a shot they could taste victory before the Browns, as the Browns come back from the bye with a trip to Detroit to play the Lions, while the 49ers host the New York Giants, who have nearly matched the ineptitude of the two teams in question.
After that, the 49ers face their bye week, while the Browns host the suddenly formidable Jacksonville Jaguars. If both teams are winless at that point, the Browns have the best chance in week 12, traveling to Cincinnati, while the 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks.
Over the course of the rest of the year, by my estimation there appears to be 4 winnable games for Cleveland on the schedule (@ Cincinnati, @ LA Chargers, vs. Green Bay, and @ Chicago)–although the Browns could just as easily lose all four. After their game against the Giants, I only see one more game that looks very winnable for the 49ers, their home game against Chicago–although who knows what Garoppolo could do for the team.
My final prediction? Both teams end up 2-12, vying for the first pick in the draft–which both teams would be looking to trade.
by Tony | Aug 4, 2017 | Hall of Fame
With Morten Andersen, Terrell Davis, Jason Taylor, LaDainian Tomlinson, Kurt Warner, Kenny Easley and Jerry Jones set to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame tonight, figured we were just a bit overdue for our annual Hall of Fame prediction for next year.
Of course, we start with the finalists that didn’t make the cut in 2017.
The final five cut:
Tony Boselli, T, Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Dawkins, S, Philadelphia Eagles/Denver Broncos
John Lynch, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Denver Broncos
Ty Law, CB, New England Patriots/New York Jets/Kansas City/Denver Broncos
Kevin Mawae, C, Seattle Seahawks/New York Jets/Tennessee Titans
Our take: No reason these five won’t be finalists again in 2018.
The first five finalists eliminated:
Isaac Bruce, WR, LA/St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers
Don Coryell, Coach, San Diego Chargers
Alan Faneca, G, Pittsburgh Steelers/New York Jets/Arizona Cardinals
Joe Jacoby, T, Washington Redskins
Terrell Owens, WR, San Francisco 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys/Buffalo Bills/Cincinnati Bengals
Tony’s take: Although interest in Coryell seems to ebb and flow, he has been a finalist for three straight years (4 overall), so it would seem unlikely that he will drop. It took Joe Jacoby years to make the finalist list, but after being a semifinalist seven times, he’s finally been a finalist the last two years. He faces his final year as a modern-era candidate, so he’s unlikely to drop.
Faneca and Owens have each made the finalist list twice, and although Owens’ attitude after last year’s “snub” could turn some more voters off, it’s unlikely to cost him his spot as a finalist. Isaac Bruce was a finalist for the first time last year—if anyone were to drop from the list this year, it’s likely him—but we don’t see that happening.
Andy’s take: I don’t agree on several of these. Bruce, to me, is not even the most worthy WR off the Greatest Show on Turf. Torry Holt, who dropped out as a semifinalist last year, deserves it more. I’ll predict voters realize the error of their ways and replace Bruce with Holt.
I also think, right or wrong, that Coryell will start to fade from view a bit. I still believe Jimmy Johnson should have been inducted before Tony Dungy and I’ll suggest the former Cowboys coach will knock Coryell from the final 15. It may be an argument for later, but I think coaches need to be considered with contributors or as their own separate category. There are a number of head guys and assistants who would be solid, legitimate Hall candidates who will never get noticed under the current system.
I also think there are others who could get bumped from this list, as there is a solid group of first-time eligible players coming up this year too. Jacoby jumps out at me. I think there’s a good chance it’s going to be up to the senior committee to ultimately determine his fate.
Semifinalists
There were actually 11 additional names cut between the Semifinalist and Finalist stage:
Steve Atwater, S, Denver Broncos/New York Jets (finalist in 2016)
Roger Craig, RB, San Francisco 49ers/Los Angeles Raiders/Minnesota Vikings
Chris Hinton, T/G, Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts/Atlanta Falcons/Minnesota Vikings
Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis Rams/Jacksonville Jaguars
Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis Colts/Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks (finalist in 2016)
Jimmy Johnson, Coach, Dallas Cowboys/Miami Dolphins
Mike Kenn, T, Atlanta Falcons
Clay Matthews, LB, Cleveland Browns/Atlanta Falcons
Karl Mecklenburg, LB, Denver Broncos
Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Darren Woodson, S, Dallas Cowboys
Tony’s Take: Despite what I’m guessing Steelers fans will say about Hines Ward, I personally see Holt, James and possibly Atwater as the most likely to ascend to the finalist stage — possibly with Jimmy Johnson as a wildcard, although in recent years I’ve backed off on my opinion of his worthiness to the Hall.
The bigger issue that many in this list face are some of the first-time eligible players coming into the list:
Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens – Basically a sure thing finalist, and by far the best bet to make it all the way to Canton in his first year. In fact, probably higher on the list than any of last year’s finalists.
Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota Vikings/Oakland Raiders/New England Patriots/Tennessee Titans/San Francisco 49ers – Likely a lock to make the finalist list, but not as sure of a lock to make the Hall in his first as many make him out to be. His attitude, combined with the uphill battle that many WR face in being elected may leave him on the outside for a few years, just like Owens.
Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears – I’m on the record repeatedly as saying that Urlacher was overrated, as he seemed to disappear when he didn’t have great defensive tackles clearing the path for him. That being said, he had a great career, and is likely to make the finalist cut at a minimum.
Ronde Barber, CB/S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Along with Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks (already both in Canton) and Lynch, Barber was part of the nucleus that brought a Lombardi Trophy to Tampa. Not sure it’s enough in year one, but his numbers will almost assuredly get him there someday—along with his brother Tiki (of course, Tiki will have to buy a ticket).
Steve Hutchinson, G, Seattle Seahawks/Minnesota Vikings – Hutch will not make the Hall of Fame this year, as there are several other Offensive Lineman ahead of him on the list, and interior lineman struggle in their first couple of years, possibly due to the anonymity of their job (heck, Hutchinson’s write up on the Hall of Fame site isn’t even accurate). He should crack the semi-finalist list, and might sneak into the finalist list, although it wouldn’t be a travesty if he had to wait a couple of years—even Randall McDaniel had to wait.
Richard Seymour, DL, New England Patriots/Oakland Raiders – Not likely to make the finalist list, but another solid semi-finalist that will likely start to make a push in a few years.
Other first-year eligible: Matt Birk, Keith Brooking, Plaxico Burress, Nate Clements, Leonard Davis, Donald Driver, Casey Hampton, Jason Hanson, Jeff Saturday, Takeo Spikes, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adrian Wilson, Antoine Winfield
Our picks for Finalist:
| Tony |
Andy |
| Boselli |
Boselli |
| Bruce |
Atwater |
| Coryell |
Johnson |
| Dawkins |
Dawkins |
| Faneca |
Faneca |
| Holt |
Holt |
| Jacoby |
Hutchinson |
| James |
James |
| Law |
Law |
| Lewis |
Lewis |
| Lynch |
Lynch |
| Mawae |
Mawae |
| Moss |
Moss |
| Owens |
Owens |
| Urlacher |
Urlacher |
And our picks for the final five (who, per usual, will all be elected):
| Tony |
Andy |
| Lewis |
Lewis |
| Dawkins |
Dawkins |
| Lynch |
Owens |
| Mawae |
Faneca |
| Owens |
Mawae |
Andy’s take: Lewis is a no-brainer and Owens has probably served his time. Mawae was clearly the best center of his era. I’d be fine with Lynch but with the struggles safeties have getting in, I’m going to call it a victory as long as either he or Dawkins gets in. I’ll throw in Alan Faneca and his nine Pro Bowls as my one disagreement with Tony.
I’m sure several of you have left your thoughts on our other posts, but let’s hear it again in the comments–who does everyone have on their Class of 2018 Pro Football Hall of Fame List?
by Tony | Apr 4, 2017 | 2017 Season, Hall of Fame
With the breaking news that the four-letter network just can’t stop talking about–that Tony Romo is taking his ball and going home…or to the broadcast booth to replace another former NFC East quarterback, the inevitable question has come up multiple times today with said network on as background noise in the office (and with Stephen A. Smith, noise is the operative word):
DALLAS – DEC 14: Taken in Texas Stadium on Sunday, December 14, 2008. Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo on the sideline during a game with the NY Giants speaking with Jason Garrett.
Is Tony Romo a Hall of Fame quarterback?
His resume is impressive–at least for a non-drafted free agent playing the most important position under for the biggest brand in professional sports today. And if I’ve heard right, most of the blowhards have him going into the Hall at some point.
Romo started 127 games in his 13 year career (playing in 156), finishing with a 78-49 regular season record. He completed 65.3% of his passes, threw for 34,183 yards, and had a 248-117 TD to INT ratio. His career QB Rating was 97.1.
Of course, the flip side of things–he was 2-4 in the four playoff appearances he led the Cowboys to. He did throw for 8 TDs to 2 INTs in the playoffs, but his completion % dropped to 61.6%, and his rating dropped to 93.0.
Perhaps even more telling–he had just four Pro Bowl appearances (in an era when some questionable names appeared in the Pro Bowl), and had zero All-Pro selections. Whie his career passer rating ranks as 4th all-time (behind Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady), his career numbers also put him at 29th all-time in Yardage and 21st in touchdowns. He averaged less than 10 starts per season in his career (partly due to injury, partly due to not starting until his third season), starting all 16 just four times–and only three times in his career did he lead the team to more than 8 wins (and four more seasons at 8 wins–two of which were injury shortened).
At the end of the day, when you look at the era he played in, it would be my opinion that Romo doesn’t stack up to the competition to make the cut for the Hall–Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are locks, Rodgers almost certainly is, and there is still Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (multiple time Super Bowl winners), not to mention younger guys like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco with a lot of years left to pad their profiles.
Romo had a decent career, that had he not spent a lot of the last few years injured, may have warranted more of a look–but the more I look at it, I’m not even sure why their is as much coverage being devoted to it as their is–at the end of the day, we’re talking about a guy that started fewer games, won fewer playoff games, appeared in fewer Super Bowls and won fewer MVPs than Rich Gannon–so where is the Gannon for Hall of Fame discussion?
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by Tony | Mar 14, 2017 | 2017 Season, NFL Speculation, Rampant Speculation
Welcome to the first ever (formal) Rampant Speculation, where we go full-on Mike Florio style, and speculate on something that we have absolutely no idea about whatsoever, purely based on what we think might be logical—despite the obvious fact that little in the NFL seems logical, to “layfolk” like us.
So what has us speculating that 2017 could, in fact, be Tom Brady’s last season playing in the NFL? After all, he seems to be still playing at a high level, having just led his team to the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history, becoming just the second player in NFL history (after Charles Haley) to win five Super Bowls—the first quarterback, the first to do so all with one team—and the first to win four Super Bowl MVPs (rightfully or not). Statistically, he had another incredible season, with a 28:2 TD to Int ratio (best all time), completed a career second best 67.4% of his passes, and finished the season 11-1.
Add in that he’s on record saying that he would like to play 10 more years (as recently as the week before the Super Bowl), and who even former backup Scott Zolak has said will likely play at least three more years, and what couple we possibly be thinking?
Well, to start, there’s the lede in Florio’s own story—his wife, Giselle, has told him he should walk out on top—and Zolak agrees that if he wins a sixth Super Bowl, he might just do that. The addition of Brandin Cooks & Stephen Gillmore to the Patriots roster would seem to make them the early odds on favorite to do just that—it will be hard to pick against them, no matter what other teams do.
Secondly, while Brady did play incredibly in 2016, there were moments during the Super Bowl—the first extended action of Brady’s that I saw this year—that he looked a little…Peyton Manning-esque. As in 2015 Peyton Manning. As in medium to deep passes looking a bit wobbly, and looking a bit more human as the Falcons pummeled him. One thing that could hurt Brady’s chance for ring number six in 2017—if teams decide that the path to finally toppling the Pats is by physically abusing Brady, no matter the cost. Some teams might be ready to do that, just out of spite.
The final reason for thinking that Brady could be done after 2017—the reason I actually started thinking that there’s a better than zero percent chance—the Patriots appear to be set on not moving Jimmy Garoppolo. After all of the success that Bill Belichick has had in seemingly being clairvoyant in moving players right before they started to decline, or maximizing return on guys who clearly wouldn’t have a role—he suddenly is keeping his young backup quarterback, who after starting the season with a bang in 2016 for the suspended Brady, could easily bring back a high first round pick from a team like the Browns? Garappolo will be a free agent after the 2017 season, at which point you know that a quarterback needy team will back up the armored truck to his house—and you have to assume that Garappolo wants the chance to start.
Not trading Garappolo while at peak value—especially when they stand to get minimal return in 2018 (some sort of compensatory pick)—is an incredibly un-Belichick like move—and one that could have roots in Belichick knowing something that no one else does. If Belichick knows already that 2017 could be Brady’s final season—and has had that conversation with Garappolo in some form—it could be the Patriots themselves that back up the armored truck to his door. After all, it would be ideal to replace Brady with someone who has been in the exact same system for four years, and has shown (albeit in limited experience) that he can perform at a similarly high level? Sure, keeping something like this secret would seemingly be a difficult task—but Belichick and the Patriots seem to be experts at keeping things in house.
And if you’re Garappolo—wouldn’t you relish the chance to start the next phase of your career—as a starting NFL quarterback—running the best franchise in the league, potentially continuing the dynasty run for another 8-10 years?
That should be a scary thought to other NFL Executives—and one that has probably crossed more than just my mind.
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Add in that he’s on record saying that he would like to play 10 more years (as recently as the
Not sure if anyone saw this : https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-official-records-to-finally-incorporate-all-america-football-conference-statistics
100% agreed on the locks for the seniors if we had a fifth slot my pick would either be Matheson…
hard to say if momentum is gathering, but we had 10 seniors elected in 2020 centennial class, doesn't seem unreasonable…
I'm sold on 4 of them Brian not quite sold on Benton just yet
A special election could continue to gather momentum but it would probably only be 3-5 players at the most. Its…