With Morten Andersen, Terrell Davis, Jason Taylor, LaDainian Tomlinson, Kurt Warner, Kenny Easley and Jerry Jones set to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame tonight, figured we were just a bit overdue for our annual Hall of Fame prediction for next year.
Of course, we start with the finalists that didn’t make the cut in 2017.
The final five cut:
Tony Boselli, T, Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Dawkins, S, Philadelphia Eagles/Denver Broncos
John Lynch, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Denver Broncos
Ty Law, CB, New England Patriots/New York Jets/Kansas City/Denver Broncos
Kevin Mawae, C, Seattle Seahawks/New York Jets/Tennessee Titans
Our take: No reason these five won’t be finalists again in 2018.
The first five finalists eliminated:
Isaac Bruce, WR, LA/St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers
Don Coryell, Coach, San Diego Chargers
Alan Faneca, G, Pittsburgh Steelers/New York Jets/Arizona Cardinals
Joe Jacoby, T, Washington Redskins
Terrell Owens, WR, San Francisco 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys/Buffalo Bills/Cincinnati Bengals
Tony’s take: Although interest in Coryell seems to ebb and flow, he has been a finalist for three straight years (4 overall), so it would seem unlikely that he will drop. It took Joe Jacoby years to make the finalist list, but after being a semifinalist seven times, he’s finally been a finalist the last two years. He faces his final year as a modern-era candidate, so he’s unlikely to drop.
Faneca and Owens have each made the finalist list twice, and although Owens’ attitude after last year’s “snub” could turn some more voters off, it’s unlikely to cost him his spot as a finalist. Isaac Bruce was a finalist for the first time last year—if anyone were to drop from the list this year, it’s likely him—but we don’t see that happening.
Andy’s take: I don’t agree on several of these. Bruce, to me, is not even the most worthy WR off the Greatest Show on Turf. Torry Holt, who dropped out as a semifinalist last year, deserves it more. I’ll predict voters realize the error of their ways and replace Bruce with Holt.
I also think, right or wrong, that Coryell will start to fade from view a bit. I still believe Jimmy Johnson should have been inducted before Tony Dungy and I’ll suggest the former Cowboys coach will knock Coryell from the final 15. It may be an argument for later, but I think coaches need to be considered with contributors or as their own separate category. There are a number of head guys and assistants who would be solid, legitimate Hall candidates who will never get noticed under the current system.
I also think there are others who could get bumped from this list, as there is a solid group of first-time eligible players coming up this year too. Jacoby jumps out at me. I think there’s a good chance it’s going to be up to the senior committee to ultimately determine his fate.
Semifinalists
There were actually 11 additional names cut between the Semifinalist and Finalist stage:
Steve Atwater, S, Denver Broncos/New York Jets (finalist in 2016)
Roger Craig, RB, San Francisco 49ers/Los Angeles Raiders/Minnesota Vikings
Chris Hinton, T/G, Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts/Atlanta Falcons/Minnesota Vikings
Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis Rams/Jacksonville Jaguars
Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis Colts/Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks (finalist in 2016)
Jimmy Johnson, Coach, Dallas Cowboys/Miami Dolphins
Tony’s Take: Despite what I’m guessing Steelers fans will say about Hines Ward, I personally see Holt, James and possibly Atwater as the most likely to ascend to the finalist stage — possibly with Jimmy Johnson as a wildcard, although in recent years I’ve backed off on my opinion of his worthiness to the Hall.
The bigger issue that many in this list face are some of the first-time eligible players coming into the list:
Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens – Basically a sure thing finalist, and by far the best bet to make it all the way to Canton in his first year. In fact, probably higher on the list than any of last year’s finalists.
Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota Vikings/Oakland Raiders/New England Patriots/Tennessee Titans/San Francisco 49ers – Likely a lock to make the finalist list, but not as sure of a lock to make the Hall in his first as many make him out to be. His attitude, combined with the uphill battle that many WR face in being elected may leave him on the outside for a few years, just like Owens.
Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears – I’m on the record repeatedly as saying that Urlacher was overrated, as he seemed to disappear when he didn’t have great defensive tackles clearing the path for him. That being said, he had a great career, and is likely to make the finalist cut at a minimum.
Ronde Barber, CB/S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Along with Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks (already both in Canton) and Lynch, Barber was part of the nucleus that brought a Lombardi Trophy to Tampa. Not sure it’s enough in year one, but his numbers will almost assuredly get him there someday—along with his brother Tiki (of course, Tiki will have to buy a ticket).
Steve Hutchinson, G, Seattle Seahawks/Minnesota Vikings – Hutch will not make the Hall of Fame this year, as there are several other Offensive Lineman ahead of him on the list, and interior lineman struggle in their first couple of years, possibly due to the anonymity of their job (heck, Hutchinson’s write up on the Hall of Fame site isn’t even accurate). He should crack the semi-finalist list, and might sneak into the finalist list, although it wouldn’t be a travesty if he had to wait a couple of years—even Randall McDaniel had to wait.
Richard Seymour, DL, New England Patriots/Oakland Raiders – Not likely to make the finalist list, but another solid semi-finalist that will likely start to make a push in a few years.
Other first-year eligible: Matt Birk, Keith Brooking, Plaxico Burress, Nate Clements, Leonard Davis, Donald Driver, Casey Hampton, Jason Hanson, Jeff Saturday, Takeo Spikes, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adrian Wilson, Antoine Winfield
Our picks for Finalist:
Tony
Andy
Boselli
Boselli
Bruce
Atwater
Coryell
Johnson
Dawkins
Dawkins
Faneca
Faneca
Holt
Holt
Jacoby
Hutchinson
James
James
Law
Law
Lewis
Lewis
Lynch
Lynch
Mawae
Mawae
Moss
Moss
Owens
Owens
Urlacher
Urlacher
And our picks for the final five (who, per usual, will all be elected):
Tony
Andy
Lewis
Lewis
Dawkins
Dawkins
Lynch
Owens
Mawae
Faneca
Owens
Mawae
Andy’s take: Lewis is a no-brainer and Owens has probably served his time. Mawae was clearly the best center of his era. I’d be fine with Lynch but with the struggles safeties have getting in, I’m going to call it a victory as long as either he or Dawkins gets in. I’ll throw in Alan Faneca and his nine Pro Bowls as my one disagreement with Tony.
I’m sure several of you have left your thoughts on our other posts, but let’s hear it again in the comments–who does everyone have on their Class of 2018 Pro Football Hall of Fame List?
With the breaking news that the four-letter network just can’t stop talking about–that Tony Romo is taking his ball and going home…or to the broadcast booth to replace another former NFC East quarterback, the inevitable question has come up multiple times today with said network on as background noise in the office (and with Stephen A. Smith, noise is the operative word):
DALLAS – DEC 14: Taken in Texas Stadium on Sunday, December 14, 2008. Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo on the sideline during a game with the NY Giants speaking with Jason Garrett.
Is Tony Romo a Hall of Fame quarterback?
His resume is impressive–at least for a non-drafted free agent playing the most important position under for the biggest brand in professional sports today. And if I’ve heard right, most of the blowhards have him going into the Hall at some point.
Romo started 127 games in his 13 year career (playing in 156), finishing with a 78-49 regular season record. He completed 65.3% of his passes, threw for 34,183 yards, and had a 248-117 TD to INT ratio. His career QB Rating was 97.1.
Of course, the flip side of things–he was 2-4 in the four playoff appearances he led the Cowboys to. He did throw for 8 TDs to 2 INTs in the playoffs, but his completion % dropped to 61.6%, and his rating dropped to 93.0.
Perhaps even more telling–he had just four Pro Bowl appearances (in an era when some questionable names appeared in the Pro Bowl), and had zero All-Pro selections. Whie his career passer rating ranks as 4th all-time (behind Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady), his career numbers also put him at 29th all-time in Yardage and 21st in touchdowns. He averaged less than 10 starts per season in his career (partly due to injury, partly due to not starting until his third season), starting all 16 just four times–and only three times in his career did he lead the team to more than 8 wins (and four more seasons at 8 wins–two of which were injury shortened).
At the end of the day, when you look at the era he played in, it would be my opinion that Romo doesn’t stack up to the competition to make the cut for the Hall–Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are locks, Rodgers almost certainly is, and there is still Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger (multiple time Super Bowl winners), not to mention younger guys like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco with a lot of years left to pad their profiles.
Romo had a decent career, that had he not spent a lot of the last few years injured, may have warranted more of a look–but the more I look at it, I’m not even sure why their is as much coverage being devoted to it as their is–at the end of the day, we’re talking about a guy that started fewer games, won fewer playoff games, appeared in fewer Super Bowls and won fewer MVPs than Rich Gannon–so where is the Gannon for Hall of Fame discussion?
Welcome to the first ever (formal) Rampant Speculation, where we go full-on Mike Florio style, and speculate on something that we have absolutely no idea about whatsoever, purely based on what we think might be logical—despite the obvious fact that little in the NFL seems logical, to “layfolk” like us.
So what has us speculating that 2017 could, in fact, be Tom Brady’s last season playing in the NFL? After all, he seems to be still playing at a high level, having just led his team to the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history, becoming just the second player in NFL history (after Charles Haley) to win five Super Bowls—the first quarterback, the first to do so all with one team—and the first to win four Super Bowl MVPs (rightfully or not). Statistically, he had another incredible season, with a 28:2 TD to Int ratio (best all time), completed a career second best 67.4% of his passes, and finished the season 11-1.
Well, to start, there’s the lede in Florio’s own story—his wife, Giselle, has told him he should walk out on top—and Zolak agrees that if he wins a sixth Super Bowl, he might just do that. The addition of Brandin Cooks & Stephen Gillmore to the Patriots roster would seem to make them the early odds on favorite to do just that—it will be hard to pick against them, no matter what other teams do.
Secondly, while Brady did play incredibly in 2016, there were moments during the Super Bowl—the first extended action of Brady’s that I saw this year—that he looked a little…Peyton Manning-esque. As in 2015 Peyton Manning. As in medium to deep passes looking a bit wobbly, and looking a bit more human as the Falcons pummeled him. One thing that could hurt Brady’s chance for ring number six in 2017—if teams decide that the path to finally toppling the Pats is by physically abusing Brady, no matter the cost. Some teams might be ready to do that, just out of spite.
The final reason for thinking that Brady could be done after 2017—the reason I actually started thinking that there’s a better than zero percent chance—the Patriots appear to be set on not moving Jimmy Garoppolo. After all of the success that Bill Belichick has had in seemingly being clairvoyant in moving players right before they started to decline, or maximizing return on guys who clearly wouldn’t have a role—he suddenly is keeping his young backup quarterback, who after starting the season with a bang in 2016 for the suspended Brady, could easily bring back a high first round pick from a team like the Browns? Garappolo will be a free agent after the 2017 season, at which point you know that a quarterback needy team will back up the armored truck to his house—and you have to assume that Garappolo wants the chance to start.
Not trading Garappolo while at peak value—especially when they stand to get minimal return in 2018 (some sort of compensatory pick)—is an incredibly un-Belichick like move—and one that could have roots in Belichick knowing something that no one else does. If Belichick knows already that 2017 could be Brady’s final season—and has had that conversation with Garappolo in some form—it could be the Patriots themselves that back up the armored truck to his door. After all, it would be ideal to replace Brady with someone who has been in the exact same system for four years, and has shown (albeit in limited experience) that he can perform at a similarly high level? Sure, keeping something like this secret would seemingly be a difficult task—but Belichick and the Patriots seem to be experts at keeping things in house.
And if you’re Garappolo—wouldn’t you relish the chance to start the next phase of your career—as a starting NFL quarterback—running the best franchise in the league, potentially continuing the dynasty run for another 8-10 years?
That should be a scary thought to other NFL Executives—and one that has probably crossed more than just my mind.
Word is trickling out on social media about who has officially been voted in as the 2017 Pro Football Hall of Fame Class.
Reports are that Morten Andersen, Kurt Warner, LaDanian Tomlinson, Terrell Davis and Jason Taylor were elected from the modern era. Jerry Jones was elected as a contributor, and former commissioner Paul Tagliabue reportedly missed election by a single vote. Senior candidate Kenny Easley also reportedly was inducted.
Warner and Davis were the only two who made the final 10 in 2016 voting, a noticeable difference from year’s past. Joe Jacoby, John Lynch and Don Coryell were the others in the final 10 from 2016 who missed the cut again this year. Tomlinson and Taylor were both eligible for the first time in 2017.
Davis and Tomlinson being elected together marks the first time since 1977 that two RB were elected together in the modern ballot, when Frank Gifford and Gale Sayers were elected.
Andersen’s election is the first for a full-time kicker since Jan Stenerud was elected in 1991.
The 15 finalists had been announced at the beginning of January. Tony Boselli, Isaac Bruce, Coryell, Brian Dawkins, Alan Faneca, Jacoby, Ty Law, Kevin Mawae, Lynch and Terrell Owens were the 10 finalists not elected.
Lynch, Dawkins, Law, Boselli and Mawae were reportedly the final five eliminated before final voting (thanks to Commenter Rob for the head’s up). This would seemingly put a serious damper on Coryell’s recent push to get in, as well as Jacoby, who was in his 19th year of eligibility.
From our predictions, I managed to get 3 of the 5 modern era candidates (Tomlinson, Davis, Warner). Only 2 of Andy’s predictions (Taylor and Tomlinson) were elected.
Inspired by posts on Reddit from /u/ekthegreat, /u/GoAraJjang and /u/Killtec7, decided to put together a recap of our first season in a 2nd year Dynasty League—partly because it’s easy content, partly because I’ve actually found reading other people’s recaps fascinating, especially when it comes to dynasty leagues. Will likely end up posting recaps on the other league’s as well, and making a regular thing of it, because why not.
In 2015, I participated in 4 leagues (1 redraft, 2 auction, 1 dynasty), which was somewhat amusing to me, given that after 2014, I was thinking of backing off the fantasy bandwagon—but some success in 2015, along with a desire to get more into the dynasty side of things, had me looking for some new leagues to join.
Stumbled across a league looking for 3 owners on Twitter, got in touch with the commissioner, found out they were doing a dispersal draft amongst the 3 teams that had been abandoned, and decided to give it a whirl.
One crazy thing about this league, though—it’s not just one dynasty league, it’s actually a pyramid dynasty league, with six completely separate leagues that are essentially banded together. I’m not going to get into all the details of how it works (mainly because I’m not 100% sure I understand myself yet), but after 2015 the league’s remained static, after this season there has been a complete re-alignment of leagues, and after next year there will be relegation and promotion throughout the pyramid, ala Premier League soccer. Making things even more interesting—in the top tier leagues, we can actually have an unlimited number of the same player within the league (so there could be 3-4 David Johnson’s in a league), in the middle tier there can only be 2-3 copies of a player, and in the lowest tier on the pyramid, they actually do a complete redraft each season. We happened to join the 5th league in the pyramid (hence, Twisted Dynasty 5).
First up was the dispersal draft, which was started on Thursday, March 24th, using the message board functionality on MyFantasyLeague. In late March, I would estimate that 8 of the 12 teams in this league sat pretty much glued to the message board, and 11 of the 12 followed along to some degree. The last pick was submitted on Sunday, March 27th—just three days for a 23 round dispersal draft. Sign of things to come.
Here is how the dispersal draft looked—it was a serpentine draft, and as the first new team to sign up, we were given the choice of where to pick, and chose to go second overall. There were trades going on throughout, including one we made in the opening minutes of the draft.
Team 1
Unsportsmanlike Ejection
Team 3
Round 1
Dez Bryant
Le’Veon Bell
Rob Gronkowski
Round 2
Devonta Freeman
Jordan Matthews
Sammy Watkins
Round 3
Demarius Thomas
Tyler Eifert
2016 1.03
Round 4
Jamaal Charles
Allen Hurns
2016 1.05
Round 5
Latavius Murray
Blake Bortles
2016 1.08
Round 6
Matthew Stafford
Gio Bernard
John Brown
Round 7
Zach Ertz
Drew Brees
Melvin Gordon
Round 8
Philip Rivers
Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
Round 9
Gary Barnidge
Panthers Defense
Nelson Agholor
Round 10
Markus Wheaton
Kendall Wright
Coby Fleener
Round 11
Kamar Aiken
Alfred Morris
Tevin Coleman
Round 12
Kenny Stills
Pierre Garcon
Ryan Tannehill
Round 13
Will Dye
2016 2.05 & 3.10
Bilal Powell
Round 14
2016 2.08
Brock Osweiler
Jerick McKinnon
Round 15
2016 3.01
Cardinals Defense
Ty Montgomery
Round 16
Sam Bradford
Carson Palmer
Torrey Smith
Round 17
Tre Mason
2016 2.10 & 3.05
Shaun Draughn
Round 18
Denard Robinson
Kenny Britt
Brian Hartline
Round 19
Victor Cruz
Calvin Johnson
Mike Wallace
Round 20
Donrelle Inman
Shane Vereen
Andre Williams
Round 21
Nate Washington
Bryce Petty
Bengals Defense
Round 22
Steve Hauschka
Chandler Catanzaro
Darren Sproles
Round 23
Bills Defense
Mike Nugent
xxx
Left undrafted: Peyton Manning, Brandon Boldin, Steve Smith, and the Eales and Rams defenses. Big miss for all three of us on Steve Smith—especially at the end of the season (see the recap…I just realized this in typing this up).
Trade #1:
Gave up: 2nd Round Dispersal Pick (Jordan Matthews)
Got: RB David Johnson
One of the extremely active owners had reached out to us before any of the details of the dispersal started, inquiring about our 1st, offering Johnson—we told him we couldn’t move the 1st, but would move the 2nd, if the guy he wanted was there. He wanted Matthews (who we honestly probably wouldn’t have even considered), and the deal was done.
We were disappointed we didn’t get any of the 1st round picks available—but very happy with our RB, I was happy with Hurns (whoops), and figured we could move some QB and RB depth to either pick up picks and/or WR help.
Trade #2:
Gave up: RB Matt Forte, 2016 2.05
Got: WR Keenan Allen, 2016 3.08
There was a lot of activity in the first few weeks, a lot of it exploratory—the rest of the league seeing if we were rookies, and us trying to find a WR1 without giving up Hurns, if possible. Allen fell in our laps—the other guy apparently had a thing against having two WR from the same team, and had Travis Benjamin on his roster—when we told him we didn’t have much interest in Benjamin, he offered the deal above (after rejecting Forte for Decker straight up). And some of the other guys weren’t thrilled that he did.
Trade #3:
Gave up: QB Carson Palmer
Got: 2016 2.08
We’d made some offers on Davante Parker in a deal that would have shipped off Drew Brees, but he countered with a 2nd for Palmer—since no one else had expressed interest in him, we figured we better take it, since he was never going to play for us.
Trade #4:
Gave up: 2016 3.10
Got: TE Charles Clay
We still didn’t have a backup to Eifert, and the champion from last year had a couple that he wanted to try and get something for before the draft, so we grabbed Clay as an insurance policy.
Trade #5:
Gave up: RB Gio Bernard
Got: RB Rashad Jennings, 2016 1.11
We liked Gio Bernard a lot, and he was the most frequently asked about guy on our roster, but felt this deal was a no brainer—we finally got a first round pick (even though it was late), and we got a guy that was presumably the clear starter, in exchange for a guy that was in a split backfield.
Trade #6:
Gave up: 2016 2.10
Got: RB DeAngelo Williams, 2016 3.10
With Bell on the roster, DeAngelo’s owner had offered him to us earlier, but we hadn’t been that interested. With Jennings and a first in the fold, we decided a 2nd round pick was worth it.
Waiver Moves: Dropped Mike Nugent, Bryce Petty, Calvin Johnson – Hadn’t expected to keep any of them, had only taken them in case nothing happened with Fitzpatrick (Petty), and hoping to include Nugent/Megatron in a trade (or to have a WR1 if he changed his mind on retirement).
Trade #7:
Gave up: 2016 3.08 & 3.10
Got: Delanie Walker
This happened during the draft—our roster was full and we were pretty happy with it, so we offered up our picks. We were on the golf course, getting ready to accept an offer for Khiry Robinson for them, but were having signal issues—when we got signal, we found out we had the offer for Walker. Done deal.
Waiver Moves: As part of a rules change, the rosters actually expanded after the draft. We picked up Chris Johnson ($7), JJ Nelson ($10), and Tyrell Willams ($3). We also dropped Alfred Morris somewhere around here—I think during the draft, to free up a spot for Ervin.
Then shortly before kickoff, we picked up Rob Kelley for $10, dropping Kendall Wright.
When Allen went down, we figured we were screwed. We started trying to get a WR1—or even a WR2 who could masquerade as a WR1—but no such luck. We were fortunate to have already grabbed Williams, and Enunwa helped as well.
IR: Shane Vereen Acquire: Jimmy Garoppolo for $16
There wasn’t much on the wire that would help us, and we figured he might make a trade chip at some point, if we held him. We didn’t.
Drop: Chris Johnson Acquire: James Starks for $40
This…was one of our worst mistakes—we forgot to retract the bid on Starks after we found out he wasn’t even going to be able to play after Lacy got hurt. Whoops. Actually, before the week started, we dropped Starks for Cordarrelle Patterson.
Drop: Jimmy Garoppolo Acquire: Alfred Blue for $0
Not sure what we were thinking here.
Drop: Alfred Blue Acquire: Dan Bailey for $2
Drop: Chandler Catanzaro Acquire: DuJuan Harris for $0
We ended up sticking with Bailey for the remainder of the season.
Trade #8:
Gave up: WR Keenan Allen, 2017 3rd round pick
Got: WR Kelvin Benjamin
As the trade deadline approached, the same team that gave us David Johnson made this offer to us. While we really like Keenan Allen, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and we needed WR help to make a final push. Our record was pretty strong at this point, but we still didn’t have a WR1. Of course, as it turns out, even after this trade, we really didn’t.
Drop: Shane Vereen, Arizona Defense, Carolina Defense Acquire: Green Bay Defense ($7), New York Giants Defense ($7)
We had to make a move with Vereen once he was activated, but didn’t have anyone else we wanted to cut. The moves with the defenses were purely speculation for the playoffs.
Drop: Green Bay Defense Acquire: Darius Jackson
Season Results:
We finished the season 9-4 and won our division, and had high points scored by almost 100 points over the next team. Unfortunately, we choked in Week 13, and that next highest scoring team finished 10-3, to claim the top seed, while we were #2.
We walked through Week 15, to face the top seed in the finals—and while we had mostly late Saturday & Sunday games, he built up a big lead with Matt Ryan, Odell Beckham and Jay Ajayi—and then to rub it in, he added to his lead Sunday with 22.90 points from Steve Smith, who we passed on in the dispersal draft, and Dan Bailey kicked extra points instead of FG against the Lions, sealing a 151.67-145.56 loss.
Roster as of 1/6/2017:
QB: Brees, Bortles, Osweiler, RB: Bell, DJ, Jennings, Williams, Kelley, Perkins, Ervin, Jackson WR: Benjamin, Hurns, Garcon, Britt, Boyd, Nelson, Williams TE: Eifert, Walker, Clay K: Bailey Def: New York Giants
We’ve already found out that we will be staying in Twisted Dynasty 5, although only one other team from this season is remaining with us. The 12 owners are actually discussing starting our own league, due to how active our league was—there were a total of 47 trades made in our league, and at one point, I believe our league had about 5x the number of trades as the other five Twisted Dynasty leagues combined.
If you’re interested in following along with updates on this league (and likely our other Dynasty adventures), you can follow us on Facebook, or follow me on Twitter…
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