Between our AFC Wildcard and NFC Wildcard predictions last week, Andy and I both managed to split the games 2-2–although his stabs in the dark for scores were slightly better than mine.
We’re back again this week to preview the Divisional match ups, starting with the NFC:
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 3:35PM kickoff
Andy: About six weeks ago I would not have expected this game to happen. The Eagles were rolling everyone and the Falcons were sleepwalking through the first two-thirds of the season. But then Carson Wentz got hurt and Atlanta went 5-2 to finish the season, with both losses coming to the teams playing in the NFC’s Sunday game. I have some nagging doubts that I’m being rope-a-doped into my prediction for this one — that all of a sudden the Nick Foles of 2013 with the 27-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio is going to show up and take Phillly on a run. But that’s too much of a story book story line to really come true. Isn’t it?
Tony: The bigger of the surprises to me six weeks ago may have been that the Falcons were in the playoffs at all–this is a team that has seemingly struggled all year to play good football, much less consistent football–yet they pretty much whipped the Rams last weekend. And did so with the offense still not really firing on all cylinders–Devonta Freeman only had 66 yards and a touchdown, and Julio Jones 94 yards and a touchdown. If you’d told me those stats pregame, I would have pegged it as a field goal type game, not a Falcons double up.
Andy: I think we’re both saying the same thing, at least about the Falcons. This team appeared to be on auto-pilot most of the season. On the Philadelphia side, you almost have to feel sorry for their fans … almost … well, okay, not quite. Not really at all. But they were getting excited about a team that appeared dominant when Carson Wentz was healthy, only to see Foles come and, basically, sleepwalk through the last few games. I do think Atlanta roles in this one. That’s for all the reasons we’ve already mentioned and, also, because “Nature Boy” Ric Flair says the Eagles are going to lose.
Tony: Well, if Nature Boy says it, it must be true. I’m not as convinced as many that that the Falcons will walk all over the Eagles, just because Carson Wentz isn’t there. The Falcons are an indoor team, from the south–they haven’t had a late season, outdoors, colder weather game since 2014 (a Monday night loss in Green Bay in early December, 33 degrees at game time), and hasn’t won in those conditions since an overtime win in Seattle in 2010 (a game that was actually 45 degrees). Weather for Saturday? The temps are supposed to drop again, after a warm up this week, which could make for interesting playing conditions.
Andy: I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win for the Falcons. The Eagles defense is pretty solid. And Atlanta still isn’t playing anywhere near as fluidly on offense as they did last season under the watchful eye of Kyle Shanahan. My problem with Philadelphia is that since Wentz went down, the offense has been just plain bad. The Falcons’ up-and-coming defense will see to making sure that continues. Atlanta 20 Philadelphia 10.
Tony: Whoever wins, I don’t think it will be a double digit margin of victory. Two solid defenses, less than ideal weather conditions, and two offenses that have not been in stride. I’ll go out seemingly on a limb and call it Philadelphia 20, Atlanta 17. With the weather, I’ll give the Eagles ability to grind it out on the ground the key to the victory.
Andy: In the immortal words of our president, “Wrong. Wrong.”
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff
Tony: In the other NFC game, the Minnesota Vikings seek revenge for the 2009 NFC Championship Game, aka Bountygate. Speaking of which, I heard a funny thing last week during the Saints victory over the Panthers–apparently Drew Brees was hit a little late on a play, and the crowd sounded none to pleased. How ironic.
This time around, the Vikings host the Saints, and instead of featuring a geriatric Quarterback they lulled out his 4th retirement, they feature a record setting defense that is ranked top in the league for yardage allowed and points allowed–which may make for a long afternoon for Drew Brees.
Andy: I liked a post I read this week about how Vikings fans are sort of walking around like abused puppies this week, hoping for the win but protecting themselves from another brutal loss. The nice thing for them heading into a game against New Orleans this time, besides home field, is they are the ones with the top-notch defense. The Saints have improved immensely throughout the season, but Minnesota’s among the league’s elite. And Mike Zimmer has put the kibosh on some of the league’s best QBs the last two seasons. Drew Brees won’t see much he hasn’t seen before, but he’s still going to face a brutal pass rush, a shutdown corner and some of the best schemes around. The question becomes can Case Keenum keep it up? Can he put up the offense necessary to complement the Vikings’ best defense since the mid-1970s. I cautiously think he can.
Tony: So you’re asking if Case Keenum and his big balls can keep it up? I’m not sure if it’s that I’m hanging out in new places online this year, or what, but I’ve actually felt an electricity around the Vikings that I don’t remember from 2009 or 1998–maybe I’m just paying more attention to it, but I’ve heard more people in the last two weeks seemingly talk about it being the Vikings destiny to make the Super Bowl that you wonder if they realize the team has a couple of tough games to win first. As you mentioned, the defense isn’t really the question, for the Vikings–it’s the offense. Not just Keenum, either–will the line hold up, is Kyle Rudolph finally healthy again, and can Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen get back to making the big plays, which seemed to disappear the last few weeks of the season. On the positive side, while the Saints defense improved this year, they are a bit beat up.
Andy: Yeah, one of the things that concerns me about the Vikings is they haven’t really been tested in a difficult game since they lost to Carolina. The last three games were pretty much against teams who had shut down. The Saints were in playoff mode right up until the last game. That could either help New Orleans stay sharp or they could suffer from a bit of a burnout effect. I think anyone who is talking about the Vikings as a team of destiny is begging to be let down … or they weren’t alive for 75, 87, 98, 09, etc. That said, I do think Minnesota does just enough to squeek by in the most interesting game of the best weekend of the season. In spite of Kai Forbath, Vikings 20, Saints 17.
Tony: Yeah, I’m by no means thinking destiny. In fact, in true Viking fan form, I’ll pick the Saints–you just brought up possibly the biggest achilles heal on the Vikings team, Kai Forbath. Saints 21, Vikings 20. I heard Blair Walsh might be looking for a job this spring…
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams – Saturday, January 6th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff
Andy: The NFC games are a bit more interesting to me than the AFC games this weekend. That starts with tonight’s game, with a couple of explosive offensive teams matching up in Los Angeles, which hasn’t hosted a postseason game since the 1985 season, when Eric Dickerson was chewing up yards on the ground and Dieter Brock was adding 50-or-so passing yards per game. The passing game should be a bit more prolific this year than it was more than 30 years ago. But this game, in my eyes, has the greatest potential for upset this weekend. Atlanta hasn’t been great, but Matt Ryan has been around the block a few more times than Jared Goff. The Falcons are beat up a bit, but I think they make this a game.
Tony: The NFC Wildcard matchups are certainly more compelling to me, at least on paper. The Falcons overcame the Super Bowl curse, to make it back to the playoffs (not actually that uncommon–the 2016 Panthers were actually the first Super Bowl losing team to miss the playoffs altogether since the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season). But they did so in ugly, ugly fashion–at least offensively. Defensively was a different story–the Falcons actually improved significantly on the defensive side, ranking 9th in yards/game (vs 25th in 2016), 9th in Rushing yards/game (17th), 12th in passing yards/game (28th), and 8th in points/game (27th). All while being a shockingly low 27th (tied) overall in turnovers, with just 16. That could spell trouble for Todd Gurley, Jared Goff and the no-name receiving corps of the Rams. The question this year, though, is if the Falcons offense will show up.
Andy: The defense is definitely on the upswing. And there is a lot of talent on offense too. However — and maybe this had to do with how good it looked last year — but the offense looked strangled quite a bit this year. More likely, I think, is that Steve Sarkisian is simply no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to running an offense. Matt Ryan regressed. The tandem of Freeman and Tevin Coleman was not utilized as well this year. Julio Jones basically had three big games. It just never seemed like they were anywhere near on track for any stretch of time. Add in that Jones, Freeman and center Alex Mack are all beat up heading into the game and, even though I think this game is the most ripe for an upset of the weekend’s slate, I will not be picking said upset to take place.
Tony: Another question mark for the Rams–aside from the youth of their team AND their coaching staff–is the atmosphere in Los Angeles. Despite playing at the Coliseum–which seats over 93,000–the Rams were second to last in terms of home attendance for playoff teams (ahead of the Steelers, inexplicably). The Rams cracked 70,000 fans in just one home game, against the Cardinals – add in that the Rams were only 4-4 at home this year, and being at home for the playoffs might not really be that big of an advantage.
Andy: So, again, I’m not going to pick the upset, but this is a little bit of a coin toss to me. I’ll go Rams 27, Falcons 23.
Tony: One other wildcard…in the…wildcard…the Rams have six All-Pros on their team–but they might be missing one of their most important All-Pros, with kicker Greg “the Leg” Zuerlein out. Can they trust Sam “Kicken'” Ficken? Falcons 27, Rams 22.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Sunday, January 7th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff
Andy: The biggest threat of any team playing on Wild Card Weekend to advance beyond next week is the New Orleans Saints, though there’s no guarantee they get past Carolina on Sunday. While conventional wisdom says it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season, I learned by listening to the “Bet the Board” podcast this week that of the 20 teams faced with such a challenge over the years, 13 have done so. That said, the Saints don’t come into this game at full strength. The defense has suffered some injuries, with pass rusher Alex Okafor and safety Kenny Vaccaro among those missing the rest of the season. This is where Drew Brees comes in. The team has transitioned this year away from relying on his arm as much. But if I’m going into a tight playoff situation, there isn’t a QB playing in Wild Card Weekend I’d rather rely on to get me through than Drew.
Tony: The Saints also have possibly the most intriguing 1-2 punch in their backfield in the league, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara–not to mention Michael Thomas. The Saints finally seemed to level things out this year between the offense and defense–but those injuries are a huge concern. The Panthers, on the other hand, seem to have had more ups and downs than a Vegas callgirl–from beating the Patriots to losing to the Bears, then back to beating the Vikings. Cam Newton is the heart and soul of the team–but that can be just as bad of a thing as a good. Especially against the Saints, whom he hasn’t really played well against since 2015.
Andy: Yep, that’s what I like about the Saints this season. Need to run the ball? Ingram or Kamara. Need to pass the ball? Thomas. Need another target? Brees is smart enough to find one. Tricky defense that makes it look like you need to run, then gives you a look that makes you need to pass? Kamara and Ingram combined for 139 catches this season. Kamara actually had more yards as a receiver than as a rusher. Ted Ginn had 53 catches. This offense is as dangerous as it has ever been and it’s more diversified than ever too.
Tony: The one thing that might concern me most about New Orleans on the offensive side is their OL–especially their interior line, which didn’t grade out that well on PFF. When the Panthers beat the Vikings, one of the main reasons for their success was that the Vikings interior line was jumbled, due to the loss of Pat Elflein. If the Saints can’t block the Panthers interior DL, that could start to make things even more interesting.
Andy: Yeah, and while the Saints have MORE weapons than the Panthers do, it’s not like Cam Newton has never been there before. And he does have Greg Olsen. And Christian McCaffery. And Devin Funchess and Jonathan Stewart. Some of these guys are new to the playoffs, and some are perhaps past their prime, but they are all capable of stretching defenses and giving the Saints problems. I suspect the game ends up something like Saints 28, Panthers 20. But it should be a compelling game and the winner will actually be able to give its opponent next week a ballgame too, which is more than can be said for this weekend’s AFC contenders.
Tony: I’ll go with a final score of 31-27 in this one…I’m just not real sure who to pick as the winner. Just to keep things interesting, I guess I’ll go with the Panthers.
With Week 9 set to wrap up tonight, we’ve got a pretty good idea of who’s fighting foe the playoffs, versus who’s fighting for jobs, both on the sidelines and on the field.
But who’s leading the pack for the 1st overall pick?
There are currently 10 teams that would seem to have at least a shot at ending up first overall, although the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears already all have 3 wins (versus 5 losses), meaning their shot is slim compared to the rest of this list–although they all are starting at possible top 10 picks, which still isn’t a great spot to be in.
The Indianapolis Colts also have just three wins, but are already at 6 losses with their bye still coming up in a couple of weeks, so they’re a bit higher in the running–they also have a tough schedule remaining, with only one game that I’ve got them pegged to win right now (Week 15 at Baltimore) and a winnable game in Houston against the Texans, now that DeShaun Watson is out, but could just as easily end up 3-13.
But the four teams with the worst current records also have formidable (for them) schedules, which gives them the upper hand:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Current Record: 2-6; Projected Record: 3-13)
The Bucs got thrashed by the Saints yesterday, and may lose Mike Evans for an extra game thanks to his fight, and Jameis Winston for even longer with a shoulder injury. Expectations were a lot higher for this team, but of the three remaining games that appear to be winnable (Week 10 against the Jets, Week 11 against the Dolphins, and Week 13 in Green Bay), with Winston hurt, I currently only have them pegged to win one–the Green Bay game, which could itself be a long shot on the road.
New York Giants (Current Record: 1-7; Projected Record: 3-13)
Another team that had high expectations coming into the season, but never came together and lost several key players to injuries. Even getting to three wins might be extremely difficult, as I have them beating the Cowboys in New York (Week 14), as Ezekiel Elliott might finally be sitting out for his suspension, and Week 16 against the Cardinals, who theoretically might have David Johnson back. They also face the 49ers in Week 10, which is a winnable game–but in San Francisco, I’m actually giving the edge to the 49ers again. More on that below.
Of the terrible teams, the Browns might actually have the “easiest” remaining schedule–they have three games that I’ve pegged them to win, including Week 12 in Cincinnati (where the Bengals have to be close to quitting on Marvin Lewis…again), Week 14 against Green Bay (assuming Aaron Rodgers isn’t back), and Week 16 at Chicago (where John Fox may find himself on yet another hot seat). They also have the beatable Ravens in Week 15, and a Pittsburgh Steelers team in Week 17 that may have the division and first round bye locked up. Still, it’s the Browns, so my 3-13 might be optimistic.
San Francisco 49ers (Current Record: 0-9; Projected Record: 2-14)
When I started to look at this last week (as a part of the Who Wins First article from last week), I had the 49ers pegged for beating the Cardinals yesterday. That obviously didn’t happen. As mentioned above, I am still giving them the benefit of the doubt in hosting the Giants this week, but after that…there’s not much there, even if they get Jimmy Garoppolo up and running. They face a tough Seattle team out of the bye, then have the last game that I currently have them pegged to win when they go to Chicago. They travel to Houston the next week – again, if Garoppolo is playing, they might have a shot – but if not…ending the season with losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and the LA Rams almost seems inevitable.
Of course, what will each team do with the first overall pick if they have it is the next big question….would the Browns finally take a “Franchise” QB, or would they once again slide back for draft capital, especially with the rumors that some of the top QBs don’t want to go there. Would the 49ers resign Garoppolo and look to help another position? Would the Giants consider pulling a Peyton by drafting Eli Manning’s replacement? Would the Buccaneers consider taking another QB at the #1 overall spot, given the lack of progression from Jameis Winston?
Those are the questions that have already started swirling for these four teams that are facing a final 8 games with little else to look forward to…
With both the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers sitting at 0-8, I’ve been doing a little research into winless streaks to start NFL seasons in the NFL, as it seems like both teams at this point are possibly bad enough that they could end up challenging the 2008 Detroit Lions to become the next team to go winless in a 16 game season.
So far in my research, it appears that the last time we had two teams start the season 0-8 was in 2013, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars both started with the dubious mark.
In that season, both teams managed to pull out their first win in Week 10, with Jacksonville winning first on Sunday (coming off a Week 9 bye) over the Tennessee Titans, and the Bucs pulling out a Monday night victory over the Miami Dolphins, in what I’m sure was yet another ratings boon for ESPN.
This season, Cleveland is heading into a Week 9 bye after falling to the Minnesota Vikings in London in week 8. The Browns have already lost their best player for the season, in tackle Joe Thomas, and have already started two different quarterbacks (and played three) who have combined for a 7 TD to 17 INT ratio.
The 49ers head into week 9 with two things going for them–first, as of last night, they acquired New England Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, in a deal they hope works out better than their last trade for a Patriots quarterback. While there’s no word yet on whether or not Garoppolo will play in Week 9 (seems a stretch), the 49ers will also be facing an Arizona Cardinals team that is without starting RB David Johnson and QB Carson Palmer. In my eyes, this makes the Week 9 matchup for the 49ers extremely winnable–and I’ve gone so far as to pick them in our weekly picks (albeit with the last selection in our alternating format).
The 49ers nearly beat the Cardinals with Carson Palmer in week 4, losing 18-15 in the first of two consecutive overtime games, and the 3rd in a stretch of five games they lost by a field goal or less. Unfortunately, their last two losses have been blowouts, losing a combined 73-20, making the decision to start CJ Beathard over Brian Hoyer a significant question, and making the need to make a move for Garoppolo even more obvious.
And if the 49ers don’t win in Week 9, there’s still a shot they could taste victory before the Browns, as the Browns come back from the bye with a trip to Detroit to play the Lions, while the 49ers host the New York Giants, who have nearly matched the ineptitude of the two teams in question.
After that, the 49ers face their bye week, while the Browns host the suddenly formidable Jacksonville Jaguars. If both teams are winless at that point, the Browns have the best chance in week 12, traveling to Cincinnati, while the 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks.
Over the course of the rest of the year, by my estimation there appears to be 4 winnable games for Cleveland on the schedule (@ Cincinnati, @ LA Chargers, vs. Green Bay, and @ Chicago)–although the Browns could just as easily lose all four. After their game against the Giants, I only see one more game that looks very winnable for the 49ers, their home game against Chicago–although who knows what Garoppolo could do for the team.
My final prediction? Both teams end up 2-12, vying for the first pick in the draft–which both teams would be looking to trade.
As I was driving into work this morning, the topic of kneeling for the national anthem once again came up on sports talk radio. So, I started to think some more about the situation, which for the last few weeks I’ve largely been trying to avoid.
There seems to be little doubt at this point that the NFL owners simply would like the topic to disappear. As much as they don’t want to admit it, it’s hurting the bottom line for the conversation to continue focusing on pre-game activities, and the number of people who are outraged and/or actively avoiding the league over this topic seems to be at a minimum holding steady, if not growing.
At the same time, the owners also are clearly not pleased with a certain President stick (more…)
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