In news that will likely satisfy (assuming a positive vote in February) many regulars here at Zoneblitz, Kansas City Chiefs Safety Johnny Robinson was announced as the Senior Candidate for the 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame on Friday. Despite a career that included seven Pro Bowls, six First-Team All AFL/Pro selections, a Super Bowl championship and selection to the All-Time AFL team, this will be Robinson’s first time as a senior candidate for the Hall of Fame. Robinson was a finalist six times during his initial eligibility window, the final time in 1986.
Robinson was drafted 3rd overall in the 1960 NFL draft by the Detroit Lions, but decided to play for the Dallas Texans (later the Kansas City Chiefs) who had also drafted him in the first round of their initial draft (the details of which are a bit cloudy, as far as where he was technically selected). He spent his first two seasons playing flanker for the Texans, before moving to safety in his 3rd season. After suffering a career ending injury on December 25th, 1971, he retired in 1972 with 57 interceptions, and was the all-time winningest player in AFL history.
Senior Finalists for the Hall of Fame are chosen by a special Seniors Committee, made up of nine veteran members of the overall Selection Committee. A list of candidates is compiled including carry-over nominations from the previous years, first-time eligible candidates, and nominations from any outside sources. Through a mail ballot, the list is reduced to 15 Senior Finalists, and a rotating sub-committee of five of the nine members of the Senior Committee meet in Canton, Ohio, to choose the finalist.
The Senior Candidate will be forwarded to the full Selection Committee, along with a Contributor Finalist two Contributor Finalists (chosen in a similar process) for final vote, prior to the committee narrowing the list of 15 modern-era finalists to the final five along with up to five modern-era candidates. The seven candidates at that stage are given a final yes/no vote.
The last Senior Finalist to not be elected to the Hall of Fame was Dick Stanfel in 2012–after being previously rejected in 1993–who was finally elected in 2016. Prior to that, Claude Humphrey was given a no vote in 2009, then elected in 2014. The last Senior Finalist to not be elected to the Hall of Fame was Marshall Goldberg in 2008, after being previously rejected in 1979. The last Senior Finalist to not be elected to the Hall while being the only Senior Finalist (from 2004-2014, two Senior Finalists were selected each year, to relieve some of the backlog of deserving candidates) was Jerry Kramer, in 1997. Kramer was enshrined in the Hall of Fame earlier this month.
The Contributor Finalist for the Class of 2019 is expected to be announced later next week. Final voting for the full class of 2019 will take place and be announced on the Saturday before the Super Bowl.
Saquon Barkley finds open space and run for a touchdown against Ohio State. Saturday, October 28, 2017. Special to the Reading Eagle: Chris Sponagle
Most logical dynasty fantasy football players have had Saquon Barkley on their radar for some time, and have had him locked in at 1.01 for 2018 rookie drafts since early in his junior season at Penn State. And if we are nothing else, we’d like to think we are logical dynasty fantasy football players–Barkley would be our first pick overall as well (if we had the 1.01 in any of our leagues…we should have, but we chose unwisely when we traded away a first last season, and ended up keeping 1.02 instead of 1.01).
However, we’ve seen some absolutely crazy proposals and deals reported on social media for the 1.01 pick, for the right to take Barkley–deals including LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and sometimes more–to get a guy who won’t have his first NFL carry for the New York Giants for another 4+ months.
And if you look at his college numbers, it just doesn’t add up.
Yes, Saquon Barkley had 3,843 rushing yards in his rushing career, more than Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley, and just behind Ezekiel Elliott, the last three big name running backs taken first overall in fantasy drafts.
But when you look deeper, there are some concerns there.
First, he got his 3,843 yards in 38 career games, and 671 total carries–3 more games than Zeke, and 6 more than Fournette, and 8 more than Gurley. He also had 671 carries in his career, meaning his yards per carry was nearly a full half yard behind the next lowest on the list (Fournette).
Second, he only managed 15 total 100+ yard rushing games in his career–and had a yards per carry of 7.72 in those 15 games, while only achieving 4.02 yards per carry in his non-100+ yard games. Of the backs we’ve looked at, only Fournette had a lower yards per carry average in his sub-100 yard rushing games (3.84), although Fournette also had 19 of his 32 career games eclipsing the 100-yard mark (and had a couple of brutal games against Alabama in there).
Finally, not an original take, but look at how Barkley did against some questionable competition, even in his junior season–10 carries for 47 yards against Georgia State, 20 for 56 against Indiana, and 14 for 35 yards against Rutgers. That’s the 4-8 Rutgers team that gave up 182 rushing yards per game. Yes, Penn State won the game 35-6, and Barkley only had 14 carries–but against a team like Rutgers, you should be seeing 14-120-3.
Some will clamor that Barkley’s receiving prowess is why he’s worth the fuss–but he also only had 4 career game with 6 or more catches.
Others will point to his combine measureables–which were definitely impressive. But your going to let the underwear olympics cause you to part with a proven running back who still has a lot of tread on the tires (and possibly additional draft capital) to take a chance on Barkley? Especially with a questionable quarterback and offensive line in New York?
I’ll sit back and collect that draft capital all day long.
We started writing our Super Bowl Preview on Monday of this past week, but with travel schedules and a general malaise over the game, it took us until Friday to finish it…and today to post it. But, here it is, in all its glory, to preserve our predictions and see who (if anyone) gets bragging rights…
Tony: I forget every year just how enjoyable that first weekend is without football each year. Apparently there is sitll one game to play, but as a Minnesotan, I can’t say I’ve heard much about it
Andy: LOL. Do you even like football? Yeah, I’ve heard more in the last week about how bad Eagles fans are than I have about the game itself. And it’s true, they are neanderthals, by and large. But it’s time to get to the game — if for no other reason than so you can get to further enjoying your offseason away from this game you seem to both love and hate so much.
Tony: I do love football…but a game featuring one fan base that has gone from one most loveable losers (across all sports) to insufferable, entitled doucheclowns (across all sports) in less than a generation, against a fanbase that actually revels in the fact that they are neanderthals…makes it tough to care. Add in that the team I wanted to see in the Super Bowl once again ripped my heart out, AND I apparently have to endure a full week of non-stop local media coverage of it…well, I wish I had tickets to the Carribean.
Andy: At least the Vikings ripped it out fast this year instead of waiting until they had a lead late or a chance at a game-tying field goal … well, nevermind. Yeah, I agree, it’s a bad match-up in terms of which team I would like to see win. So it goes. We have to be professionals here … (snicker, guffaw).
Tony: Screw professionalism…I’ll start being professional when I start getting a paycheck around here. Maybe. In the meantime, I say we keep making our Super Bowl preview about Minnesota. And maybe Jacksonville. I mean, all the northeastern jagoffs can say all they want about how terrible a Vikings-Jaguars Super Bowl would have been for ratings, but does anyone outside of New England or Philadelphia really care about this game? Not like ratings will be down, and I suppose there are plenty of fans that don’t really realize how big of nimrods Eagles fans are that will tune in to hope that the mighty Patriots fail, but that’s got to be the biggest draw to the game, right?
Andy: The hope that the Patriots will fail? Yeah, I imagine that will be among the biggest draws. It’d be a little different if Carson Wentz was still playing. It’d be old guard vs new guard, etc. Can the young guy come in and overtake the old guy. But that’s out the window. I suspect the same alure isn’t there with Nick Foles at QB. I heard someone on the radio the other day say the Eagles are probably better than New England at every position other than QB. Do you buy that?
Tony: Better than? No. Equal to? Maybe. The first position that argument falls apart is TE, if Rob Gronkowski plays. I like Zach Ertz, and would probably rather have him on my team (fantasy and real life), but Gronk is the better player in a single game, as long as he isn’t trying to injure the other teams DBs. Outside of that, they’re fairly equal at RB (both have a stable of ok backs, not a great one), and slightly above average WR. I probably give the edge to the Eagles on both lines. As for linebacking and defensive secondary…not sure I could name anyone on either team, to be honest.
Andy: I would guess the guy was grouping TEs and WRs into a receiver category, but yeah, you could be right. Still, Ertz, on a good day, is about as close as you are going to get to Gronk as anyone else in the league other than maybe Travis Kelce. At RB, I think Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are fine, but Jay Ajayi has more breakaway ability and I think LeGarrette Blount is a better bruiser than what the Pats throw out there. I do think the Eagles’ defense as a whole is better than New England’s is, though the Patriots, once again, have managed to figure out how to be competitive on that side of the ball most of the season after looking the first couple weeks like warmed over dog crap.
Tony: You do have to wonder a little bit as well about the Patriots coaching staff, with Josh McDaniels heading to Indianapolis and Matt Patricia heading to Detroit, will there hearts be in it? It sounds like crazy speculation, but we’ve seen time and time again coordinators who are clearly on their way out seemingly drop the ball at big times like these. Kyle Shannahan and Pat Shurmur being two recent examples.
At the same time, the Patriots have two things going for them that the Eagles can’t even get close to approaching–Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Despite protests from some Eagles fans, who will probably grunt to disagree while picking their knuckles up off the ground just long enough to hurl a beer at anyone who says otherwise, Nick Foles isn’t even worthy of being the guy that lets the air out of the ball for Brady, and Belichick doesn’t even need to break out his sleeveless sweatshirt to coach circles around Doug Pederson’s frat visor.
Andy: Yep, I think we’re on the same page here. Whether they are or aren’t, Philadelphia could be 10 times better than New England at every other position on the field and on the sideline. Brady and Belichick are equilizers. And I have no worries about their coordinators, either. Those guys know the score. They know they can take on their new teams starting in about five days. There’s another Lombardi at stake, an ever-increasing legacy for this team. The Patriots’ goal here is greater than beating the Eagles. It’s also cementing its place as the greatest dynasty of the salary cap era, one of the greatest NFL dynasties of all time — perhaps the greatest — and, yes, as one of the greatest sports dynasties in all of professional sports history. Like them or not, think they cheated a couple times to get here or not, there aren’t many teams in the history of sport who can match this run. I think it continues. Patriots 27, Eagles 19.
Tony: I actually don’t think they need to cement their place as the greatest dynasty of all time–I think that’s already done. We’re talking about a team that has made 8 Super Bowl appearances in 16 seasons, and already have won 5 of them. The only thing another win does is put them that much further ahead of any other team possibly reaching them…and the only other team in any sport that could have a chance right now would probably be the Golden State Warriors, who would probably be disqualified from reaching anywhere near the Patriots plateau unless they lose Kevin Durant, developed some more in house talent, and kept the winning ways going for another 10 years.
I actually think the more interesting stories if this Super Bowl might be 1) can the Patriots finally score in the first quarter of a Super Bowl under Belichick, and 2) can they win a Super Bowl by more than 6 points for the first time under Belichick. If they can’t do #1, I suspect they will struggle to do #2–they might even struggle to win. But if they can pull off #1, I think they walk away with it easily. And personally, I think they do–I think the Patriots win 31-13, and heaven help people in the streets of Minneapolis when whatever Eagles fans made it to town leave the building.
Well, another week, another split for Andy and I–we both went 1-1 in the AFC (who would have thought the Patriots could outlast that pesky Titans squad, eh?), and we each got a different one wrong in the NFC–Andy missing with his pick of the Falcons, while I missed on the game that I was hoping I would miss. We’ll jump straight into this Sunday’s big match ups.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 1:05PM kickoff
Tony: Conference Championship Sunday will start with the match up everyone expected in the AFC, the New England Patriots hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. I mean, you all picked Jacksonville to kick three kinds of dog crap out of Pittsburgh, right? And don’t let the final score (45-42) trick you–the game wasn’t that close. Of course, there is one concerning thing for Jaguars fans about that score–the fact that their 2nd ranked defense gave up 42 points at all. The Steelers are a good team, but the Patriots are better.
Andy: I wouldn’t be too hard on the Jaguars’ defense. Jacksonville got off to a quick start and, for the majority of the game, never led by fewer than two scores. Just like in the Vikings game, the winner was going up against a potentially Hall of Fame caliber QB who wasn’t going to shrivel up in a ball and quit. And the Jaguars offense, when needed, showed up and made plays — I did not think there was any chance the Jags won a shootout, but I was wrong.
Now, they do need to regroup a bit. The Steelers will throw out a clunker every now and again and they were minus Ryan Shazier, which left them vulnerable to the run the last several weeks. The Patriots aren’t likely to do so. New England, I believe, is on another “us against the world” journey following reports if internal dissension. This will be a much tougher nut for the Cats to crack.
Tony: Like many, I didn’t give the Jaguars much of a chance against the Steelers. And like many, I’m not giving them much of a chance against the Patriots. To say it couldn’t happen, though, is folly. The Steelers were third in passing offense, and third in overall offense. The Patriots had the top ranked overall offense in the NFL, but they were led by their passing game (2nd overall, 276.1 yards per game)–so it’s not like the Patriots offense is significantly superior to the one the Jags just faced. The Jags had the best passing defense in the league, at just 169.9 yards per game, although they were 21st against the run (a stat that moved up with the acquisition of Marcell Dareus). While it seems unlikely that the Jags will completely shut down Tom Brady, they can undoubtedly cause him some problems, and/or force the Pats to focus on their run game, not something that they are known for having the patience of.
On the flip side, the Patriots have the 20th ranked run defense, and 30th ranked pass defense–facts that should have Leonard Fournette licking his chops, as long as his ankle is healthy. And for all of his detractors, Blake Bortles played exactly like they will need him to against the Patriots–not huge yardage, but moving the ball well when needed, and putting them in a position to score on the ground.
Andy: While all the statistics say the Jags have a shot and this could be a good game, there are a couple factors that say otherwise: Tom Brady is mountains better than Blake Bortles. Bill Belichick is more experienced, established and, at least at this point, better than Doug Marrone. And the Patriots have been winning games like these for a decade-and-a-half. The Jags … they’ve been mostly irrelevant during that timeframe. Jacksonville is back — make no mistake — they will be in games like this for several years to come. But New England wins this one, 30-13.
Tony: There are all kinds of factors that say the Patriots should clean up this game rather easily–just like there were factors that pointed to the Jaguars getting killed by the Steelers. I don’t think that the Patriots will make the biggest mistake that I suspect the Steelers made, which is looking past the Jaguars–but I do think that the Jags will give them a game. I’ve got the Patriots winning 20-10.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 4:40PM kickoff
Tony: On the NFC side, the Minnesota Vikings will travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles after their stunning, last second victory over the New Orleans Saints. As a Vikings fan, my biggest fears right now are 1) a let down after the huge comeback win, 2) a misguided belief that the Vikings are “destined” to play in their home Super Bowl leading to over confidence, and 3) whether or not Andrew Sendejo will be out of concussion protocol (which I never would have guessed would have been a concern).
Andy: I think Mike Zimmer is a pretty good coach and he has plenty of ammunition on his players to make sure they get focused on Philadelphia. Namely, he can play off of how they gave up a 17-0 halftime lead. So I’m not too worried about losing because they suddenly think they are a team of destiny.
What does worry me a bit is that in the Eagles game against Atlanta it looked like Philly had found a way to use Nick Foles as a strength, or at least as a neutral figure, while avoiding his deficiencies. That, coupled with another strong defense, do make the Eagles a threat that for a bit it looked like they weren’t going to be. I suspect neither team will get off to a 17 point lead this week and, if one of the teams does, I feel equally confident that there will not be a huge comeback, as nobody in this game is as equipped as Drew Brees to make that kind of rally happen.
Tony: Nick Foles isn’t as bad as the reputation that he has had the last 2 months, but this is the guy who was benched in his last year in St. Louis in favor of…Case Keenum. On the plus side, I believe the Eagles really need the run game to take the pressure off him–and while they only managed 25-78 against the Falcons, they might struggle to get even that much against the Vikings. And while the Falcons defense is pretty solid, I’m not sure that Foles can manage 23/30 for 246 against the Vikings either.
What may be the most interesting match up of the game will actually be the Vikings offense against the Eagles defense–across the lines especially. Fletcher Cox in particular will be a tough load for the Vikings OL to handle, but if the Vikings can manage the same 88 yards on the ground that the Falcons got, I think the Vikings will be in decent shape.
Andy: I don’t think by saying Nick Foles is unlikely to replicate what Drew Brees did that I’m saying he is a bad QB. Brees is one of the best and he has great weapons around him. Foles is a solid backup QB. But he doesn’t have skillset as Brees and the surrounding talent is less explosive. So Philly has to stay close or get ahead early, that’s all.
I do agree with the last part. If the Vikings can’t handle the d-line, it’s going to be a long day. It might be anyway. I don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game. There could be a lot of punting, running on third down and field-positioning in this one.
Tony: Ultimately, while my confidence in the Vikings against the Saints seemed to dwindle as the week went on–right now, as I dig into the game against the Eagles, my confidence seems to be increasing–and as a Vikings fan, that scares me. Of course, I’ve avoided picking the Vikings all season long, something I continued last week in picking the Saints. So this week, I’m going to once again hope I’m wrong, and pick the Eagles gutting out a narrow victory, 17-16.
Andy: I know you’re superstitious about the Vikings. And I also try to avoid getting too amped up, knowing the history. But this team warrants your confidence. They just have a bit of a different feel this season, a more resilient feel. That’s a bit nebulous, I know, but I’ve felt this way from about mid-season. If the Eagles were coming into this game with Carson Wentz, I would definitely look at it differently. That’s not a knock on Foles as much as it is a credit to Wentz — the Eagles, at times, looked almost unbeatable when he was playing. And the team rallied around him. With Foles, this game is a toss-up. I’ll get specific here as the Vikings continue their “conquering demons” tour. Minnesota will be up by seven in the waning minutes. Foles will lead a drive deep into Vikings territory. On, let’s say, fourth-and-four from the six, Foles will drop back and pass to Jay Ajayi running parallel to the end zone. At the last second, Xavier Rhodes, who will be covering Alshon Jeffery, will break on the route, hitting Ajayi at the same time the ball arrives, knocking it to the turf and preserving the game for Minnesota. Vikings 17, Eagles 10.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff
Tony: On the AFC side of the equation, it’s two games that most people think are forgone conclusions. On Saturday evening, possibly the biggest laugher of the weekend will happen, when the Patriots take on the Titans, who came back to upset the Chiefs. The only way the Titans have a chance in this one is if the discord in New England isn’t only real, it’s worse than anyone imagined. That, or a freak injury to Tom Brady that even TB12 can’t overcome.
Andy: Yeah, put me on the same side of the people who say this won’t be much of a game. It’s basically a tuneup for the Patriots. They’re getting better. But they’re a ways off. Brady is the main reason. A little stat, courtesy of NFL Communications: This game pits the biggest age difference between starting QBs in playoff history, beating out the 1991 match-up between Kansas City’s Steve DeBerg and the Raiders’ Todd Marinovich. There are 16 years and a few months between Brady and Marcus Mariota. In the previous four highest age-difference games, the elder has beaten the youth each time. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Tony: First off, Todd Marinovich played in a playoff game? Secondly…I’m guessing that may have made its way to his pipe. And lastly…have I mentioned lately that the Patriots really need to bring the old Pat Patriot helmets & red jerseys back from mothballs?
Anyway…I suspect the only way the game stays at all interesting is if the Pats come out cold from the week off, and the Titans manage to put together a ground game to hold on to the ball. For at least 43 minutes of game time. I say Patriots 34, Titans 13.
Andy: I think you’re giving Tennessee too much credit. I don’t think it will be that close. The Titans started last week looking like they were more than happy to call it a season and say “we made the playoffs, isn’t this a great building point.” The only reason they stayed in that game was abysmal coaching by Kansas City, which, stunningly, forgot to involve Kareem Hunt in the game. That won’t happen with Bill Belichick. If running the ball is what it takes, he’ll do it. And he may take this as an opportunity to show the national media how unified his troops are (even though I do think there is a solid chance he retires at season’s end). This has a chance to be one of the most lopsided playoff games in history. Patriots 47, Titans 9.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 12:05PM kickoff
Andy: The other AFC game is also seen by many as a mismatch. I’m not so sure. Since Ryan Shazier got hurt, Pittsburgh has been vulnerable to the run. And the Jaguars do have Leonard Fournette, who repeatedly gashed the Steelers earlier this season. I’m not suggesting Jacksonville wins in a blowout — far from it. I suspect the game plan will call for ball control and minimizing Blake Bortles rather than for scoring 50. But I do think the Jags make a contest out of this game.
Tony: The Jags also have that swarming defense, which could make life miserable for the Killer B’s–Ben, Bell and Brown. With Antonio Brown coming back from a serious calf injury (and battling some sort of illness at practice on Friday), the last thing they need is to face a secondary combination that ranks among the best in the league. Throw in an offensive line that didn’t grade out well as a unit (at least on ProFootballFocus.com), and maybe the Jaguars do have a fighting chance.
Tony: Of course, the Steelers do have the advantage of home field–not to mention plenty of recent playoff experience to fall back on, versus the Jaguars and their one ugly game against the Bills last week. And something tells me that the Steelers would like some payback from that embarrasing 30-9 beat down the Jaguars laid down in Pittsburgh in Week 5.
Andy: At a minimum, the Steelers won’t take the Jaguars lightly after that big week five loss. I do think Pittsburgh wins. They have playoff experience and that does mean something. But this game will be tighter than expected. I’ll go Steelers 20, Jaguars 16.
Tony: The weather in Pittsburgh is supposed to be plenty cold as well–not ideal conditions for Jacksonville. I expect it will be closer in score than it may actually feel, with Blake Bortles possibly adding some of his patented garbage time points. Pittsburgh 23, Jaguars 17.
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