In 2017, it took Andy weeks to get a win in our Alternative Picks contest–in 2018, thanks to the Steelers, he got his first win in week 1–although much like the Browns breaking their losing streak, it’s more of not a loss than it is a win, since he only managed to go 8-7-1. Neither of us picked particularly well, but we’ll try to improve week 2.
Week 1
Andy 8-7-1
Season total
Andy 8-7-1
1) Tony: Rams over Cardinals – Kind of weird getting to choose whether to go first or second and third…but as bad as the Bills are, I’m not excited about the Chargers traveling east, so I’ll grab the one game I feel the best about.
2) Andy: Chargers over Bills
3) Andy: Saints over Browns
4) Tony: Broncos over Raiders – Andy called this a ballsy pick this early–frankly, this week they all are. But I like Denver at home, and trust in Jon Gruden’s ability to coach like it’s 2002.
5) Andy: Redskins over Colts
6) Tony: Eagles over Buccaneers – The Bucs won big in week 1–if they can beat the Eagles, will I be A) impressed, B) happy, or C) surprised? The answer is D), All of the Above.
7) Andy: 49ers over Lions
8) Tony: Steelers over Chiefs – No idea here, but I can’t see the Steelers losing at home. Unless Ben Roethlisberger is hurt worse than anyone knows, then all bets are off.
9) Andy: Patriots over Jaguars
10) Tony: Bengals over Ravens – I think this one comes down to which running back can grind more clock, and I like Mixon here better than Collins.
11) Andy: Vikings over Packers
12) Tony: Texans over Titans – Neither team looked that good in week 1, but I trust the Texans to rebound more than the Titans.
13) Andy: Seahawks over Bears
14) Tony: Giants over Cowboys – On ESPN this morning, they speculated that the loser of this game loses the division. Not sure that winning this game proves much, though.
15) Andy: Jets over Dolphins
16) Tony: Panthers over Falcons – Definition of a toss up game. I took the Panthers because…the coin landed on heads.
With the real NFL kickoff just hours away (no one really cares about the Thursday night game, right? Especially when it’s a bird brawl with a team with a bunch of redneck, hick fans facing off against the Atlanta Falcons?), it’s time to bring back our ever popular present series from last year, the alternative pick series, where Andy and I choose the week’s slate of games, with $1 on the line per game.
Last year it wasn’t pretty…I’m not sure we ever actually updated the final standings, but with an even split in week 17, I managed to finish the season with a 141-111 split…ignoring that somehow our math by season’s end apparently caused us to miss 4 games.
We actually picked these games on Thursday, but haven’t had a chance to post yet:
16: Andy: Ravens over Bills
15: Tony: Saints over Bucs – The Bucs didn’t look that great last year, and are missing Jameis Winston for three games, and starting Peyton Barber at RB…despite the fact that I need him to produce in several fantasy leagues, I’m not optimistic.
14: Tony: Rams over Raiders – My favorite tweet after the Khalil Mack trade: Everyone else is playing chess while Jon Gruden is playing Go Fish. Sums up what I expect of the Raiders this year. Good luck in Vegas.
13: Andy: Lions over Jets
12: Tony: Jaguars over Giants – The Giants picked up the darling of fantasy fanatics in Saquon Barkley. Wonder how many tackles he’ll have today?
11: Andy: Packers over Bears
10: Tony: Panthers over Cowboys – I’m not expecting the Norv Turner/Cam Newton experiment to yield huge riches, but with a banged up offensive line and an overrated quarterback of their own, I think the Cowboys struggle this year.
9: Andy: New England over Houston
8: Tony: Titans over Dolphins – The Dolphins return Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback…and start preparing for 2019.
7: Andy: Pittsburgh over Cleveland
6: Tony: Chargers over Chiefs – I think this game will end up being decided by the Chargers high octane offense and the Chiefs putrid defense, rather than Andy Reid’s chronic mismanagement of his offensive weapons. That won’t cost them a game until at least week 2.
5: Andy: Denver over Seattle
4: Tony: Bengals over Colts – Andrew Luck sees his first game action since 2016, and somehow, the offensive talent around him is even worse? At least they finally seem to be focused on building an OL for him…but will he survive to 2019 to see it pay off?
3: Andy: Vikings over 49ers
2: Tony: Falcons over Eagles – I was so sure of this one…if only Matt Ryan could connect with Julio Jones where it matters.
1: Andy: Cardinals over Redskins
In our straight up picks, Andy and I both finished 10-6 in week 17 of 2017, giving me a 169-87 record to end the season (at least the math works there), and Andy finished 153-103.
We both pretty much agreed on the slate of picks above, although just to make things a little interesting, I decided to go with the Seahawks over the Broncos.
In news that will likely satisfy (assuming a positive vote in February) many regulars here at Zoneblitz, Kansas City Chiefs Safety Johnny Robinson was announced as the Senior Candidate for the 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame on Friday. Despite a career that included seven Pro Bowls, six First-Team All AFL/Pro selections, a Super Bowl championship and selection to the All-Time AFL team, this will be Robinson’s first time as a senior candidate for the Hall of Fame. Robinson was a finalist six times during his initial eligibility window, the final time in 1986.
Robinson was drafted 3rd overall in the 1960 NFL draft by the Detroit Lions, but decided to play for the Dallas Texans (later the Kansas City Chiefs) who had also drafted him in the first round of their initial draft (the details of which are a bit cloudy, as far as where he was technically selected). He spent his first two seasons playing flanker for the Texans, before moving to safety in his 3rd season. After suffering a career ending injury on December 25th, 1971, he retired in 1972 with 57 interceptions, and was the all-time winningest player in AFL history.
Senior Finalists for the Hall of Fame are chosen by a special Seniors Committee, made up of nine veteran members of the overall Selection Committee. A list of candidates is compiled including carry-over nominations from the previous years, first-time eligible candidates, and nominations from any outside sources. Through a mail ballot, the list is reduced to 15 Senior Finalists, and a rotating sub-committee of five of the nine members of the Senior Committee meet in Canton, Ohio, to choose the finalist.
The Senior Candidate will be forwarded to the full Selection Committee, along with a Contributor Finalist two Contributor Finalists (chosen in a similar process) for final vote, prior to the committee narrowing the list of 15 modern-era finalists to the final five along with up to five modern-era candidates. The seven candidates at that stage are given a final yes/no vote.
The last Senior Finalist to not be elected to the Hall of Fame was Dick Stanfel in 2012–after being previously rejected in 1993–who was finally elected in 2016. Prior to that, Claude Humphrey was given a no vote in 2009, then elected in 2014. The last Senior Finalist to not be elected to the Hall of Fame was Marshall Goldberg in 2008, after being previously rejected in 1979. The last Senior Finalist to not be elected to the Hall while being the only Senior Finalist (from 2004-2014, two Senior Finalists were selected each year, to relieve some of the backlog of deserving candidates) was Jerry Kramer, in 1997. Kramer was enshrined in the Hall of Fame earlier this month.
The Contributor Finalist for the Class of 2019 is expected to be announced later next week. Final voting for the full class of 2019 will take place and be announced on the Saturday before the Super Bowl.
Saquon Barkley finds open space and run for a touchdown against Ohio State. Saturday, October 28, 2017. Special to the Reading Eagle: Chris Sponagle
Most logical dynasty fantasy football players have had Saquon Barkley on their radar for some time, and have had him locked in at 1.01 for 2018 rookie drafts since early in his junior season at Penn State. And if we are nothing else, we’d like to think we are logical dynasty fantasy football players–Barkley would be our first pick overall as well (if we had the 1.01 in any of our leagues…we should have, but we chose unwisely when we traded away a first last season, and ended up keeping 1.02 instead of 1.01).
However, we’ve seen some absolutely crazy proposals and deals reported on social media for the 1.01 pick, for the right to take Barkley–deals including LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and sometimes more–to get a guy who won’t have his first NFL carry for the New York Giants for another 4+ months.
And if you look at his college numbers, it just doesn’t add up.
Yes, Saquon Barkley had 3,843 rushing yards in his rushing career, more than Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley, and just behind Ezekiel Elliott, the last three big name running backs taken first overall in fantasy drafts.
But when you look deeper, there are some concerns there.
First, he got his 3,843 yards in 38 career games, and 671 total carries–3 more games than Zeke, and 6 more than Fournette, and 8 more than Gurley. He also had 671 carries in his career, meaning his yards per carry was nearly a full half yard behind the next lowest on the list (Fournette).
Second, he only managed 15 total 100+ yard rushing games in his career–and had a yards per carry of 7.72 in those 15 games, while only achieving 4.02 yards per carry in his non-100+ yard games. Of the backs we’ve looked at, only Fournette had a lower yards per carry average in his sub-100 yard rushing games (3.84), although Fournette also had 19 of his 32 career games eclipsing the 100-yard mark (and had a couple of brutal games against Alabama in there).
Finally, not an original take, but look at how Barkley did against some questionable competition, even in his junior season–10 carries for 47 yards against Georgia State, 20 for 56 against Indiana, and 14 for 35 yards against Rutgers. That’s the 4-8 Rutgers team that gave up 182 rushing yards per game. Yes, Penn State won the game 35-6, and Barkley only had 14 carries–but against a team like Rutgers, you should be seeing 14-120-3.
Some will clamor that Barkley’s receiving prowess is why he’s worth the fuss–but he also only had 4 career game with 6 or more catches.
Others will point to his combine measureables–which were definitely impressive. But your going to let the underwear olympics cause you to part with a proven running back who still has a lot of tread on the tires (and possibly additional draft capital) to take a chance on Barkley? Especially with a questionable quarterback and offensive line in New York?
I’ll sit back and collect that draft capital all day long.
We started writing our Super Bowl Preview on Monday of this past week, but with travel schedules and a general malaise over the game, it took us until Friday to finish it…and today to post it. But, here it is, in all its glory, to preserve our predictions and see who (if anyone) gets bragging rights…
Tony: I forget every year just how enjoyable that first weekend is without football each year. Apparently there is sitll one game to play, but as a Minnesotan, I can’t say I’ve heard much about it
Andy: LOL. Do you even like football? Yeah, I’ve heard more in the last week about how bad Eagles fans are than I have about the game itself. And it’s true, they are neanderthals, by and large. But it’s time to get to the game — if for no other reason than so you can get to further enjoying your offseason away from this game you seem to both love and hate so much.
Tony: I do love football…but a game featuring one fan base that has gone from one most loveable losers (across all sports) to insufferable, entitled doucheclowns (across all sports) in less than a generation, against a fanbase that actually revels in the fact that they are neanderthals…makes it tough to care. Add in that the team I wanted to see in the Super Bowl once again ripped my heart out, AND I apparently have to endure a full week of non-stop local media coverage of it…well, I wish I had tickets to the Carribean.
Andy: At least the Vikings ripped it out fast this year instead of waiting until they had a lead late or a chance at a game-tying field goal … well, nevermind. Yeah, I agree, it’s a bad match-up in terms of which team I would like to see win. So it goes. We have to be professionals here … (snicker, guffaw).
Tony: Screw professionalism…I’ll start being professional when I start getting a paycheck around here. Maybe. In the meantime, I say we keep making our Super Bowl preview about Minnesota. And maybe Jacksonville. I mean, all the northeastern jagoffs can say all they want about how terrible a Vikings-Jaguars Super Bowl would have been for ratings, but does anyone outside of New England or Philadelphia really care about this game? Not like ratings will be down, and I suppose there are plenty of fans that don’t really realize how big of nimrods Eagles fans are that will tune in to hope that the mighty Patriots fail, but that’s got to be the biggest draw to the game, right?
Andy: The hope that the Patriots will fail? Yeah, I imagine that will be among the biggest draws. It’d be a little different if Carson Wentz was still playing. It’d be old guard vs new guard, etc. Can the young guy come in and overtake the old guy. But that’s out the window. I suspect the same alure isn’t there with Nick Foles at QB. I heard someone on the radio the other day say the Eagles are probably better than New England at every position other than QB. Do you buy that?
Tony: Better than? No. Equal to? Maybe. The first position that argument falls apart is TE, if Rob Gronkowski plays. I like Zach Ertz, and would probably rather have him on my team (fantasy and real life), but Gronk is the better player in a single game, as long as he isn’t trying to injure the other teams DBs. Outside of that, they’re fairly equal at RB (both have a stable of ok backs, not a great one), and slightly above average WR. I probably give the edge to the Eagles on both lines. As for linebacking and defensive secondary…not sure I could name anyone on either team, to be honest.
Andy: I would guess the guy was grouping TEs and WRs into a receiver category, but yeah, you could be right. Still, Ertz, on a good day, is about as close as you are going to get to Gronk as anyone else in the league other than maybe Travis Kelce. At RB, I think Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are fine, but Jay Ajayi has more breakaway ability and I think LeGarrette Blount is a better bruiser than what the Pats throw out there. I do think the Eagles’ defense as a whole is better than New England’s is, though the Patriots, once again, have managed to figure out how to be competitive on that side of the ball most of the season after looking the first couple weeks like warmed over dog crap.
Tony: You do have to wonder a little bit as well about the Patriots coaching staff, with Josh McDaniels heading to Indianapolis and Matt Patricia heading to Detroit, will there hearts be in it? It sounds like crazy speculation, but we’ve seen time and time again coordinators who are clearly on their way out seemingly drop the ball at big times like these. Kyle Shannahan and Pat Shurmur being two recent examples.
At the same time, the Patriots have two things going for them that the Eagles can’t even get close to approaching–Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Despite protests from some Eagles fans, who will probably grunt to disagree while picking their knuckles up off the ground just long enough to hurl a beer at anyone who says otherwise, Nick Foles isn’t even worthy of being the guy that lets the air out of the ball for Brady, and Belichick doesn’t even need to break out his sleeveless sweatshirt to coach circles around Doug Pederson’s frat visor.
Andy: Yep, I think we’re on the same page here. Whether they are or aren’t, Philadelphia could be 10 times better than New England at every other position on the field and on the sideline. Brady and Belichick are equilizers. And I have no worries about their coordinators, either. Those guys know the score. They know they can take on their new teams starting in about five days. There’s another Lombardi at stake, an ever-increasing legacy for this team. The Patriots’ goal here is greater than beating the Eagles. It’s also cementing its place as the greatest dynasty of the salary cap era, one of the greatest NFL dynasties of all time — perhaps the greatest — and, yes, as one of the greatest sports dynasties in all of professional sports history. Like them or not, think they cheated a couple times to get here or not, there aren’t many teams in the history of sport who can match this run. I think it continues. Patriots 27, Eagles 19.
Tony: I actually don’t think they need to cement their place as the greatest dynasty of all time–I think that’s already done. We’re talking about a team that has made 8 Super Bowl appearances in 16 seasons, and already have won 5 of them. The only thing another win does is put them that much further ahead of any other team possibly reaching them…and the only other team in any sport that could have a chance right now would probably be the Golden State Warriors, who would probably be disqualified from reaching anywhere near the Patriots plateau unless they lose Kevin Durant, developed some more in house talent, and kept the winning ways going for another 10 years.
I actually think the more interesting stories if this Super Bowl might be 1) can the Patriots finally score in the first quarter of a Super Bowl under Belichick, and 2) can they win a Super Bowl by more than 6 points for the first time under Belichick. If they can’t do #1, I suspect they will struggle to do #2–they might even struggle to win. But if they can pull off #1, I think they walk away with it easily. And personally, I think they do–I think the Patriots win 31-13, and heaven help people in the streets of Minneapolis when whatever Eagles fans made it to town leave the building.
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I guess what I am saying Andy P is that transparency is great, just doubt that it improves the results