Andy has established a potentially dominating lead in the alternative picks in the early going, as he picked up another four games in the chaos of week five.
Tony’s closer in the straight-up picks, but this segment has the potential to turn in to a runaway.
| Week 5 | Andy 9-5 |
| Season | 45-31-1 |
Andy & Tony joined a startup, 50 player IDP dynasty league this offseason that starts 11 on offense, 11 on defense. Both came out of the draft thinking they had a good chance to win it…neither are doing well. However, comparing the two teams, Tony has almost 100 more potential points than Andy…but Andy has the better record, nearly 110 more Points For. Our reason for bring this up? Tony appears to be really, really bad at picking the actual starting lineups.
Andy didn’t just eke it out, either–he doubled up Tony in Week 5, highlighted by his Flex play of Chase Claypool for 44.6 points.
| Week 5 | Season | Total points | |
| Andy | 208.18 | 4-1 | 749.24 |
| Tony | 103.58 | 1-4 | 624.98 |
Tony
QB – Matt Stafford @ Jac – $6,400 – Back to slightly cheaper QB because…why the hell not.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott vs Ari – $8,600 – Injury to Dak means the Cowboys rely heavily on Elliott.
Another week, another hunk of budget down the crapper for Andy. He’s doing fine with regular picks, but when the pointspreads start coming into play, blech. Tony split his bets, getting to a couple hundred dollars in the black.
| W/L Week 4 | Week 4 $ | Season W/L | Season $ | Bankroll | |
| Tony | 2-2 | +$1,500 | 7-8-1 | +$261 | $10,261 |
| Andy | 1-3 | -$1,391 | 5-11 | -$5,143 | $4,857 |
Andy – Well, this sucks pretty bad. Nothing to do but keep throwing bad hypothetical money after bad hypothetical money.
$1,000 – Carolina (+2, -110) at Atlanta – The Falcons are beat up on a short week. And the Panthers actually don’t look half bad so far. They win outright.
$1,000 – Cleveland (+1.5, -110) vs Indianapolis – Don’t look now, but I think the Browns are actually pretty decent this year. The Colts have looked okay too, but Cleveland has a chance to keep proving that this year it’s actually for real.
$1,000 – Seattle (-7, -110) vs Minnesota – The Vikings have looked alright the last couple weeks, but it’s been against a Houston team that had pretty much given up on Bill O’Brien and a Tennessee team that might have already been festering with COVID. The Seahawks are a bit of a different monster. Could have gone the over here too, but 57 is a high number, even against this junior high set of cornerbacks.
$300 – Cincinnati (+650) at Baltimore – I don’t really see this happening, but I don’t like many of the money lines for bets this week. Lamar Jackson has missed a couple practices. Joe Burrow looks good. What the hell.
Tony – Getting a really late start on this week’s games…
$1,000 – Kansas City (-10.5. -105) vs Las Vegas – Mahomes at home against the Raiders, who are reeling a bit.
$1,000 – Pittsburgh (-7.5, +100) vs Philadelphia – A Steelers team that is looking like it wants one more shot for Big Ben, vs a team that is already fighting off fans calling to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts…or trading to get Nick Foles back.
$1,000 – Seattle (-7, +100) vs Minnesota – How has the line moved down on this one? The LetRussCook movement is going to be even hotter after today…only thing that might stop Russ is sitting out the second half with too big of a lead to justify playing him more.
$500 – Washington (+310) vs LA Rams – Washington took a step forward this week in benching Dwayne Haskins, and is now just one minor injury from having their best QB back on the field. The Rams should win this game–but they’re on the road, traveling east, and it’s not like the Football Team doesn’t have a potentially dangerous defense…
Tony hurt his own cause last week with four misses among his picks. That powered Andy to a big win and a 10-game lead in the standings. The stakes are higher for him this week than the Titans’ COVID count, if he wants to keep Andy in his sights.
Here’re the standings:
| Week four | Andy 11-4 |
| Season | Andy 36-26-1 |
And the alternative picks for week 15:
1) Andy: Seahawks over Vikings – Russell Wilson is on fire and DK Metcalf has twice as many catches (6) over 20 yards this season as the nearest competitor. He may double that this weekend against the inexperienced and, in some cases, just bad Vikings secondary. (more…)
Tony titled week three’s DFS contest at Fanball.com “Tony needs a win.” He did need a win and he got it, scoring a 50-point shellacking over Andy.
Andy’s still got the lead for the season, but the gap tightened considerably.
| Week 3 | Season | Total points | |
| Andy | 126.64 | 2-1 | 417.98 |
| Tony | 175.1 | 1-2 | 401.22 |
Andy –
QB – Aaron Rodgers vs Atlanta – $7,400 – The only thing that worries me here is that Green Bay could end up with a big enough lead early enough to mute his later-game performance, but hopefully Matt Ryan keeps things just close enough for that to not happen.
RB – Darrell Henderson vs NY Giants – $6,400 – The salaries are starting to catch up with the performance here, but Henderson
Photo credit: Mike Morbeck, via Wikipedia
The writers see Aaron Rodgers having a big week — if Green Bay has to throw the ball.
against the Giants should perform well enough to make it worthwhile. The Rams have gone to more of a ball-control offense and they should be able to run a lot against the Giants.
RB – Aaron Jones vs Atlanta – $8,200 – Whatever Rodgers doesn’t get, Jones should. Maybe they even connect on a TD through the air.
WR – Davante Adams vs Atlanta – $8,100 – Going heavy on the Packers here, if you hadn’t noticed. Adams should return from injury in a big way. Allan Lazard filled in well for a week, but Davante will regain his rightful role as the WR1.
WR — Tyreek Hill vs New England – $7,700 — Davante Adams tweeted, then deleted, that he will miss tonight’s game. There aren’t a lot of guys left who have the upside ceiling Adams would have with nearly every other healthy Packer wideout injured. But Tyreek should be good for a couple points.
WR – Sammy Watkins vs New England – $4,900 – I’m not a huge Watkins fan, but in three weeks, he’s had two games with eight or more targets. He’s averaging 13 points per week in this format. I suspect he’ll stay close to that against the Patriots, providing a solid payoff at the price. And if he can pop one into the end zone, the risk pays off immensely.
WR – DK Metcalf @ Miami – $7,400 – Metcalf is off to a really solid start to the 2020 season and it would be even better had he not let himself get stripped of a TD last week. He scored late to start making up for that blunder and I suspect that carries forward into this week.
TE – Jordan Akins vs Minnesota – $3,500 – Akins has taken over the receiving TE role in Houston. His price is still low, he’s averaging 10 points a week and he goes against a Vikings defense that is still starting a bunch of inexperienced corners and is down not just Danielle Hunter, but Anthony Barr too. If Green Bay weren’t offering up so many big money players this week, I’d have happily taken guys like Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks going up against this defense.
Flex – Robert Woods vs New York Giants – $6,900 – He not the sexiest player and he doesn’t have the biggest name out there, but he just keeps producing.
DST – Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles Chargers – $2,200 – Once again, scroll to the bottom, find the cheapest defense that isn’t likely to embarrass itself, click select.
Editor’s note: This was edited Monday at 1 p.m. CT to reflect the likelihood that Adams is out tonight.
Tony –
QB – Aaron Rodgers vs Atlanta – $7,400 – He’s playing lights out, against the team with the lowest opponent ranking in the league, and his top weapon will be back. My only fear is that they’ll run the ball exclusively in the second half … but Atlanta likes to give up leads, too.
RB – Kenyan Drake @ Carolina – $6,500 – A value play against a low ranked Carolina defense.
RB – Alvin Kamara @ Detroit – $8,500 – Kamara is averaging 37.9 FP/G. Next highest is 28.1, and that guy is on IR … and would still cost $1k more to put in my lineup.
WR – Davante Adams vs Atlanta – $8,100 – Going for the stack this week…hasn’t worked out so well in the past for me, but after a week off, Rodgers will love having his security blanket back.
WR — Tyreek Hill vs New England – $7,700 — I would normally take Ridley for $7,900, but with him and Julio both listed as Questionable, I’ll go with Hill.
WR – CeeDee Lamb vs Cleveland – $5,900 – One of these weeks he’s finally going to blow up … and at $5,900, I’ll hope like hell it’s this week.
WR/TE – Robert Woods vs NY Giants – $6,900 – The Giants are not good at defense. Well, it’s not the only thing they’re not good at … but it’s in the top three.
TE – Christopher Herndon vs Denver – $3,500 – Since we’re punting TE every week, it seems … wonder why they call him Christopher rather than Chris (which I see on all other platforms), but not Christopher Herndon IV, if they’re going to go all formal? Broncos may unintentionally be in the running with the Jets for Trevor Lawrence when this is all done … they’re starting Mark Rypien’s nephew.
Flex – Darius Slayton @ LA Rams – $5,500 – Just needed a guy to squeeze in here at $5500, and Slayton has been pretty much the one bright point for the Giants this year.
DST – Houston vs Minnesota – $2,700 – They’re cheap and they play the Vikings…
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