When things went bad for us in the point spread picks last season, it snowballed. One bad week would lead to another and before you knew it, we were scraping the bottom half of our bankrolls with a half a season left.
I still haven’t recovered from the pounding, but Tony more than made up for his losses. And overall we’re still well into our hypothetical gambling town for profits for the season.
It was probably a bit inevitable. Tony and I had combined to add nearly $17,000 to our hypothetical bankrolls throughout the first 10 weeks of the season, really without any major bad weeks along the way. Sure, we lost a few bucks here and there, but for the most part it’s been full pseed ahead.
I was 0-4 and Tony was 1-3, and we collectively gave more than $5,000 hypothetical dollars back to the various sports books where we get our lines. Thankfully we were both playing from ahead, so we’re still in decent shape. We’ll get back on the horse in week 12 and hopefully ride home with more baskets full of pretend cash.
Well, the momentum slowed down a bit, but with the help of a weird line Tony found, we both managed to make at least enough for a nice hypothetical dinner with our pointspread picks last week.
The line in question came from the Miami/Detroit game, where Tony found Miami a five-point underdog – with a return of +210. Those numbers are typically reserved for moneyline bet, so I’m guessing the line was a typo, but he found it, he gets it. So even though he only hit one of four picks, he scored big on that one – thus a $100 profit for the week. I split mine, blowing a $1,500 chunk on Pittsburgh, but making up for it with reliables in Green Bay and Denver. So I was up $300 for the week.
Here are the standings:
Week 10
Season
Week +/-
Bankroll
Season +/-
Tony
1-3
23-17
+$100
$18,507
+$8,507
Andy
2-2
24-16
+300
$17,285
+$7,285
Andy: These are the weeks when it would be dangerous for me to actually be in Las Vegas with a wad of cash. There are a lot of lines I feel good about – and usually when I feel good about lines, it blows up in my face. But this is all hypothetical. So what the hell.
$1,500 – Denver (-10, +105) at St. Louis – I felt pretty good about betting the Broncos last week and I feel pretty much the same here again. The Rams aren’t a bad team, but Denver is built for dry, fast, indoor football. They got a wakeup call in New England a couple weeks back and this team is turning it up a notch. Bad deal for the Rams.
$1,000 – Denver vs St. Louis: Over 51 (-105) – The totals in Denver’s last six games have been: 58, 64, 56, 59, 48 and 61. The only one that wouldn’t have broken this number was the game against the broken Jets. Last week Denver took the first quarter off and still scored 41. This will be another opportunity for Peyton Manning to snub Brock Osweiler’s attempts to get in the game late. St. Louis only has to score about 14 of these points for me to feel fairly comfortable that they’ll break 51.
$750 – Seattle (+1, +105) at Kansas City – This one makes me a bit uncomfortable, but I think Seattle has found itself. I’m a tad concerned by the loss of defensive tackle Brandon Mebane, but Kansas City rarely uses its combination of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis as effectively as it should. I think this will probably be a low scoring, physical game, but I like the Seahawks to come out ahead.
$400 – Oakland (+470 moneyline) at San Diego – The Raiders aren’t going to lose every game. And the Chargers weren’t playing well heading into the bye. I wouldn’t say I’m 50-50 on this actually happening, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Oakland somehow got San Diego to lay an egg.
Tony:
$1,500 – Denver (-10, +105) at St. Louis – If I’m playing the Broncos at this point in the season, I almost want to go to Denver, so at least there’s a chance it’s a cold weather game. Taking on Peyton Manning in a dome, in a non-playoff situation? That’s suicide, man.
$750 – Green Bay (-7, +120) vs. Philadelphia – So I wasn’t exactly spot on last week, but it’s going to take more than one game to convince me that Mark Sanchez is suddenly a competent NFL quarterback just because he plays for Chip Kelly. True, he couldn’t have asked for much better or a matchup than the Packers swiss cheese defense.
$500 – Detroit at Arizona: Over 41 (-110) – It should be a good game, and while both teams have solid defenses and I don’t think it will be hugely high scoring, I think with these two passing attacks, they SHOULD put the game into the 20’s. Even with former Lion Drew Stanton leading the Cardinals.
$500 – Seattle (Moneyline: +115) at Kansas City – There are a few attractive, low payout upsets this week—Minnesota (+140), New England (+140) are just behind the Seahawks in my book, for likeliness to win. If I really were in Vegas, and going beyond the four game bet, I would probably even throw a little down on the Raiders (they’re going to win at some point…right?) at +450. But even at this little payout, I’m shocked Seattle isn’t the favorite in Kansas City, or at least that it’s not a pick’em game.
Few times in my betting life have I more grossly misjudged a game than I did Green Bay’s Sunday night loss to New Orleans. The upset pick cost me $1,000 off my bankroll and left me more than a bit flummoxed. It shouldn’t though – I need to do a better job of recognizing that when I feel so strongly that I have one over on Vegas, the actual results usually show that it’s the other way around.
Nonetheless, in week eight Tony and I both continued pushing our bankrolls upward, even with the big loss. Tony had a tremendous week, going 3-1 and taking a giant leap toward his goal of doubling his original hypothetical bankroll. My winnings were much smaller, but when you leave with more than you started with it’s never a bad week.
Well, after a couple big weeks, Tony was probably due for a downer. He had backed off a bit, citing tough lines, and it was probably good he did. It wasn’t a disastrous week, but the 1-3 mark dropped him behind me for the season.
I’ve been slowly and steadily going up more than down. Last week a 3-1 accelerated the pace. Here are the standings for the season.
lead to another and before you knew it, we were scraping the bottom half of our bankrolls with a half a season left.
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