Another season, another futile attempt to upset the Vegas oddsmakers.
This is the third year in a row now where we’re starting with a mythical $10,000 bankroll. We’ll track our wins and losses throughout the year as we pick three games against the spread and one upset against the moneyline.
Last year, after a solid start, Andy tanked, losing again in the gambling to Tony, whose basic strategy involves finding 10 minutes in between meetings and throwing darts.
Many wondered if Eli Manning’s days as a productive starter were done after a miserable 2013 campaign during which he threw 27 interceptions to just 18 TDs and saw his QB rating fall to 69.4. He rebounded in 2014, however, with one of his best seasons, tossing 30 TDs and breaking the 4,400 yard mark.
Which Eli Manning is the real Eli Manning? Can he sustain the success in 2015?
Calvin Johnson has spent much of the past half-decade as the league’s top WR. Over the last couple seasons, however, he’s seen injuries rob him of five games and force him into decoy roles in others. His numbers are still great, but he’s now going in the late second round of the average fantasy draft. Is he still worth taking at that price?
T.J. Yeldon was drafted 36th overall by Jacksonville in this year’s draft after entering the draft early from Alabama, where he split carries with Eddie Lacy early in his career, and Derrick Henry in his junior year.
At 6-1, 226 pounds, he fills the potential bruiser role that many Alabama backs seem to have the reputation for, but with 4.52 speed in the 40, he doesn’t have to solely rely on running people over to be effective.
The Jaguars struggled under rookie quarterback Blake Bortles in 2014, but with a solid young core on offense, could Yeldon help turn things around for the Jaguars, and possibly help fantasy owners in 2015?
Buy: Tony
Melvin Gordon is getting a lot of attention, and Todd Gurley will likely go down as the best RB in the class, but this year, T.J. Yeldon may actually be the rookie running back to bring the most value to the table.
Early reports out of Jacksonville have consistently said that Yeldon will win the job, and he’s already on top of every depth chart I’ve checked. Not surprising, given that he had to beat out Toby Gerhart (he of 326 yards on 101 carries last year after receiving a big contract), Denard Robinson (who put up bigger numbers, but is ultimately more of a change of pace guy), and newcomer Bernard Pierce, who couldn’t beat out a suspended Ray Rice.
The Jaguars are still going to want to rely heavily on the run to keep pressure off of Blake Bortles and their young WR like Allen Robinson.
The bigger thing for Yeldon, though, is that with limited competition (from a talent perspective), he may be a “bell cow” back—meaning even if he doesn’t put up a stellar YPC, he still may be more valuable than guys going ahead of him who will likely split time, like Joique Bell (59.7, 23), Andre Ellington (59.5, 22), and even possibly Carlos Hyde (40.9, 17), Lamar Miller (37.1, 15) and Mark Ingram (31.6, 12), who I still think will lose carries to C.J. Spiller.
Sell: Andy
Forget the fact that several NFL backs from Alabama – Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson come to mind – have shown flashes of skill but mostly have been flashes in the pan.
Forget that when T.J. Yeldon was drafted, his NFL.com draft profile compared him with the boring Terrance West and quoted a scout saying he wouldn’t take Yeldon before the fifth round, adding that he’s a rotational back with “no juice to get away from anyone.”
I’m staying far away from the excitement on Yeldon because he’s playing on a team that has been bad for years with a QB who left a lot to be desired in his rookie season and because both are playing behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranked 18th overall, but 25th as a run blocking unit.
The Jaguars are an improving-but-still-bad team, and the likelihood is that Yeldon does come in and take some portion of the starting role as a rookie. But Denard Robinson was solid when he played last year and they’ll want to keep evaluating whether he can be a big-play maker. They also have a collection of young WRs who they need to test out in increasing roles as well. I just can’t get excited about Yeldon with all of these other young, developing players and a subpar offensive line at play.
He will get to do some things, but all of these factors tell me his role is not going to warrant a pick in the first half of fantasy drafts.
Teddy Bridgewater took over the starting quarterback role in Week four last season for the Vikings, when stopgap solution Matt Cassel went out with an injury. Norv Turner eased him into the offense, gradually releasing the reigns as Bridgewater showed that there wasn’t much that was too big for him to handle.
He finished with a 64.4 percent completion percentage, 85.2 rating and 14:12 TD-to-INT ratio. But it’s the last five games, when he completed over 70 percent of his passes and started going downfield more that has Viking fans excited.
He’s currently being drafted in the 10th round of standard drafts—what do you think?
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