Pretty good results again in week 10. Tony won, but only two incorrect picks between us.
Here are the standings:
Week 9
Tony 7-6
Season
Andy 67-65-2
Here are this week’s alternative picks:
1) Andy: Chiefs over Cardinals – I don’t think the Cardinals can keep up. Neither does Vegas.
2) Tony: Chargers over Raiders – I have a feeling the Raiders will be pretty high up on this list every week moving forward. Possibly for a few years.
3) Tony: Eagles over Cowboys – The Eagles haven’t looked like the same team from last year. Fortunately for them, the Cowboys have.
4) Andy: Rams over Seahawks – Rams will be mad after Saints debacle.
5) Tony: Falcons over Browns – I get why the Browns made the decision to move on from Hue, but in (another) lost season with back to back games against the Chiefs and Falcons heading into the bye, I wonder if the timing was the best?
6) Andy: Packers over Dolphins – I don’t think Miami can keep up.
7) Tony: Patriots over Titans – Mike Vrabel will want to show his former coach something–and he will. Like how much harder it is to win when you don’t have Tom Brady to throw TD passes to linebackers subbing at TE.
8) Andy: 49ers over Giants – One bad team that is trying against another bad team that is not.
9) Tony: Jets over Bills – What could have been a terrible game with a mildly compelling story of rookie first round quarterbacks facing off is now likely just a terrible game. Yay.
10) Andy: Saints over Bengals – New Orleans proved last week it’s right in the mix to be considered the league’s best.
11) Tony: Jaguars over Colts – Sooner or later that Jags defense is finally going to show up, right?
12) Andy: Bears over Lions – Chicago is a step ahead of Detroit.
13) Tony: Buccaneers over Washington – Washington lost both starting guards to injury last week, and signed three street free agent OL this week. Even against the Bucs defense, they might struggle.
14) Andy: Steelers over Panthers – When you have two good teams in a Thursday night game, I always take the home team.
And in our straight-up picks, Andy loses ground on the Tonys.
Andy followed his good week with … a bad one. And why exactly did he think Arizona and San Francisco would score points? With that bet, he deserves his fate. Tony hit on a couple of +100 bets, so his 2-2 looks pretty good.
Here are the standings after week eight.
Week 8 W/L
Week 8 $
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
1-3
-$1,191
14-18
-$1,198
$8,802
Tony
2-2
+$550
15-17
-$1,010
$8,990
And here are the bets:
Andy
$1,000 – Kansas City (-8, -110) at Cleveland – The Browns are actually 5-3 against the spread this season and I think the coaching change ultimately will do the team well. It’s a bit unfortunate for them that the first game under new leadership comes against a Chiefs team that has scored 38, 42, 27and 40 points in going 3-1 on the road so far. One week isn’t going to provide enough time for the Browns to put together enough to keep this one close.
$800 – Houston (+1.5, -110) at Denver – On rare occasion, I’m actually right when I feel like I find a game where the point spread just doesn’t fit. Last week it was when Baltimore, inexplicably, was a favorite at Carolina. This week I’m looking at the Texans as an underdog against Denver and wondering “what up?” The Texans have won five in a row after a 0-3 start. The offense exploded last week, admittedly against a dying Dolphins squad, but still – it was the second-straight double-digit win. The Broncos have lost five of six and just cut the guy they thought might replace Case Keenum as the starting QB in the near future. And they traded long-time WR Demaryius Thomas – to the Texans, who will use the motivated WR to replace the injured Will Fuller. I think the line should be flipped on this one.
$750 – Washington (-1.5, -110) vs Atlanta – I have no doubt I will regret this pick. Washington is among the hardest teams in the league to figure out the last few years. However, this team is 5-2, including winning four of five as an underdog. The defense has been keeping this team relevant, having given up 21 or fewer points in six of seven games. In a season like the current one, that’s impressive. The Falcons got off to a rough start and that’s a bad sign for them, as they played five of their last six at home. They need to steal a couple on the road to stay relevant this season. I’m not sure they have the defense to make that happen.
$400 – Tennessee (+230 money line) at Dallas – I don’t like many of the money lines this week. So, it’s kind of a coin flip. I went here because … do we really believe that trading for Amari Cooper has made Dallas a powerhouse? The line went from -4 to -6.5 in the course of a few days. The result, to me, actually depends more on which Titans team shows up. The Tennessee people expected to see this season is, I think, better than Dallas, which has proven mediocre.
Tony
$1,500 – Kansas City (-10, +110) at Cleveland – Sometimes a team with a new coach will step up and find a way to win an amazing game that they shouldn’t be able to. And sometimes the team fires a coach heading into a game against possibly the best offense in the NFL. Could still get the Chiefs at -8, but…why?
$1,000 – Carolina (-7, +115) vs Tampa Bay – The 7 points is a pretty big number, but for the +115, I’ll take a shot.
$1,000 – Atlanta at Washington: Over 48 (-110) – Don’t really know why, but this seems like a good bet. So does the Chargers/Seahawks at the same number.
$500 – Detroit (+200 money line) at Minnesota – Only way I can’t lose betting on the home team…if the Vikings win, I’m happy. If they lost, my imaginary sports betting account gets paid.
Andy had a good week. Maybe he’s found a secret? He’s basically breaking even. Can he pull ahead? Tony’s plugging along, a little below the break-even slot. They’re still kind of a joke when it comes to “betting the mortgage,” but maybe there is an inkling of competence there?
So, it’s been a rough beginning to the season. Bet the Mortgage has been a bit of an afterthought at times as we’ve rushed around dealing with real lives. Finally got around to doing the calculations and, yes, the results look like it’s been an afterthought.
But we’re still in the mix. There’s still time to turn this around and make these picks something you’ll want to bring to Vegas and use as your betting guide. Here’s where we are at heading into week six.
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