Up a little, down a little, up a little, down a little. Andy bounced back from a brutal two week stretch to post a 4-0 mark over Thanksgiving that brought his bankroll back up over the $10,000 starting point. Tony had a rougher weekend, again putting too much faith in Detroit to help contribute to an elusive over, among other misfires.
After hanging out around or even a little above the break-even point, things fell apart for Andy the last two weeks. He’s 1-6-1 in his last eight bets. Both Andy and Tony had rough patches in week 11, though Tony has still kept his bankroll above water. Can they rebound on Thanksgiving weekend?
Week 11 W/L
Week 11 $
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
0-4
-$3,300
18-25-1
-$3,065
$6,935
Tony
2-2
+$230
21-23
+$729
$10,729
Here we go again…
Andy
$800 – Houston (-6, -110) vs Tennessee – I’m officially on the Texans’ bandwagon. Houston is good. And they get a nationally televised Monday nightery in which to prove it. The Titans … who can figure this outfit out? They annihilate New England in week 10, then get annihilated by Indianapolis in week 11… here it says they’re on the wrong side again.
$1,000 – Atlanta at New Orleans: Under 61 (-110) – I’ve come to hate taking the under, but this line feels like an overreaction to the Kansas City/L.A. Monday night game from last week. These teams have good offenses, but they’re also familiar with each other. And it’s on short rest. And the Saints have a solid defense to go along with the high-powered, Drew Brees-led offense. There will be points scored, but not that many.
$1,000 – Cleveland (+3, -110) at Cincinnati – The Bengals have won seven straight in this series, but Cleveland is, simply put, playing better ball right now. Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield will take advantage of a porous Cincy defense and the Browns will come away with a win straight up.
$500 – Buffalo (+150 money line) vs Jacksonville – What the hell happened to the Jaguars this season? I thought about going Browns here, but the Bills line was slightly higher. Buffalo is bad, but at least playing as though it cares. Jacksonville, on paper, should be able to compete with anyone, but that’s not how it has played out this season. Until they prove it, bet against them.
Tony
$1,000 – Pittsburgh (-3.5, +105) over Denver – Sure, the game is in Denver–but I’m not sure why the line has moved back towards Denver–the Steelers should walk here.
$1,000 – Buffalo (+3, +100) over Jacksonville – This is more of a gut call, but Jacksonville has been terrible this year.
$1,000 – Chicago vs Detroit: Over 43.5 (-108) – Might as well have something going on today’s games, right?
$500 – Arizona (+500 moneyline) over San Diego – I don’t really thing the Cardinals win here (I picked San Diego first over all in our Alternate Picks), but I’ll hedge my bets and take a chance against a Chargers team that historically has played to the level of their competition.
As good as week 10 was for Andy, week 11 was almost as bad. If not for Tony missing a couple of his latter picks, he might have made up the entire 12-2 difference from that week. Here are the standings:
Week 11
Tony 8-5
Season
Andy 84-75-2
And here are this week’s alternative picks:
1) Tony: Chargers over Cardinals — I really would have preferred spots 2 & 3 this week. I have to believe that the Chargers will have a fairly easy time against the Cardinals, especially after last week’s wake up call.
2) Andy: Patriots over Jets — Patriots stinging from a bad loss while the Jets are reeling from an even worse one. New England has a better chance of answering the call.
3) Andy: Saints over Falcons — Normally wouldn’t be this confident in a Saints/Falcons tilt, but New Orleans might be the best team in football right now.
4) Tony: Ravens over Raiders — This probably would have been one of my picks at 2/3. Not that I trust the Ravens…but I definitely trust the Raiders.
5) Andy: Colts over Dolphins — Andrew Luck looking good. I don’t think they’re talented enough to be playing this well, but you have to tip your cap – they are.
6) Tony: Steelers over Broncos — The Steelers should have a fairly easy time with the Broncos. If not, it solidifies the Chiefs & Patriots as the favorites for the AFCCG.
7) Andy: Texans over Titans — Houston isn’t as good as Kansas City. Name me another team in the AFC playing as consistently well as the Texans right now. … Still waiting.
8) Tony: Panthers over Seahawks — Will the real Carolina Panthers please step up? Seahawks struggle heading east, though.
9) Andy: Bears over Lions — This one got a little tougher with Trubisky likely out, but I think Chase Daniel can run the offense alright and I don’t see Detroit doing much against the Bears defense.
10) Tony: Eagles over Giants — I wouldn’t mind being wrong here at all. I’m loving seeing the Eagles flounder.
11) Andy: Browns over Bengals — Cleveland may be on to something.
12) Tony: Cowboys over Washington — Washington hung in there with a banged up offensive line, and almost came back after Alex Smith’s leg was destroyed…but even the Cowboys should be able to beat up on Colt McCoy with a week of planning.
13) Andy: Bills over Jaguars — Upset special? Or are the Jags really as bad as they are playing?
14) Tony: Buccaneers over 49ers — This week’s game that absolutely no one cares about. Except maybe a few coaches that might be interested in that job in Tampa.
15) Andy: Vikings over Packers — Kind of a coin toss, though I think Green Bay isn’t very good and Minnesota has the weapons to be better. Whether they will or not … hard to say.
While his alternative picks were horrid, Andy did pick up a game in the straight-up picks for the week — though it wasn’t in exactly impressive fashion. Here are those standings:
Andy
Tony T
Tony P
Week 11
7-6
6-7
5-8
Season
102-57-2
98-61-2
99-60-2
And here are the picks for this week… Happy Thanksgiving.
So … oops. This was supposed to go up Friday. Never quite got there – disappointing, because week nine was actually a good one and I was looking forward to bragging rights. Here are the standings:
Week 9 W/L
Week 9
Total W/L
Total $
Bankroll
Andy
3-1
+$1,806
17-19
+$608
$10,608
Tony
3-1
+$3,209
18-18
+$2,199
$12,199
And here are … here were the bets. I guess you’re going to have to take our word for it…
Andy:
$800 – Cleveland (+6, -110) vs Atlanta – The Browns, despite a 2-6 record, are actually 5-4 against the spread. They seemed to start to figure things out in the second half of last week’s game. And it’s not like Atlanta’s defense is clicking on all cylinders this season. Cleveland will keep this close and might win straight up.
$800 – Jacksonville (+3, -115) at Indianapolis – I know the Jaguars have been a disappointment this season. And I know Andrew Luck has been hot in recent weeks. Sooner or later the Jags are going to figure it out. The defense is too good and I still believe the team overall is better than Indianapolis.
$800 – LA Rams (-9.5, -110 ) vs Seattle – Sure, the Seahawks have won four of six, including their last three on the road. Those wins came against Oakland, Detroit and Arizona. This week they have the angry Rams. LA only won in Seattle by two points, but they’re coming off a tough loss and realize they now need to win in order to keep pace with New Orleans for home-field advantage. I think the defense takes a step up in this game and the Rams win handily.
$300 – Arizona (+1,200 money line) at Kansas City – No, it’s not that I think this is going to happen. But this is a college football line, not a pro football one. You almost never see four-figure money lines in the NFL. So, I’ll ride it. If I lose, I’m not out much. But if I win, it’s a significant boost to my budget.
Tony
$1,000 – New England (-7, +110) over Tennessee – A positive payout on a single touchdown spread for the Pats? The Titans are better than I expected, but I don’t think they are going to be able to score more than maybe 14 on the Pats and, even as a Belichick protégé, Vrabel’s Titans aren’t going to keep the Pats under 24.
$1,000 – LA Chargers (-11, +108) over Oakland – Chargers have a road game in California (which they play at least 8 of per year) against a team that has got to be dangerously close to all out revolt against their head coach.
$1,000 – Arizona vs Kansas City: Over 49.5 (-110) – If I were to pick an underbuster this week, I would have picked the Chiefs before I picked the Steelers—but there’s a chance that there’s two underbusters in the same week.
$500 – Cleveland (money line: +230) over Atlanta – There’s a decent number of interesting money line bets this week, in the +200 to +300 range for payouts—I’m going to grab Cleveland because they’re at home, the Falcons are an up and down team, and…maybe week 2 under the interim regime will improve things some heading into the bye.
Loading ...
Brad is that an entry for our contest, if so can you also include any seniors/coach/contributor you predict for election-thanks
I think its going to remain very challenging for Stafford to get into PFHOF unless he gains a SB, first…
I don't think Matthew Stafford needs to win another SB to get into Canton on the modern ballot. I do…
We will see if Mitchell returns for Philly. If not, possibly another tough day in the secondary. Yes, its the…
Yes on offense I agree that controlling the ball via rushing attack is needed but like the Lions found out…