In the coming weeks, ZoneBlitz will feature rankings for each fantasy position in five scoring formats. The rankings will be accompanied by a brief article highlighting some of the big names, surprises and sleepers. Combined cheat sheets for each format will be available August 1 and constantly updated based on the latest news to keep you prepared for your drafts.
Editor’s Note: Tight end rankings are the fourth of six rankings to be posted to ZoneBlitz.com. Quarterback rankings can be found here, running back rankings can be found here and wide receivers can be found here.
OK, so things are obviously a bit in flux at the moment thanks to Aaron Hernandez and his current trouble with the 5-0. So let’s start in New England with a couple of assumptions when it comes to these rankings. Assumption No. 1: Hernandez’s legal situation will have no impact on his availability to the Patriots. Assumption No. 2: Rob Gronkowski will miss at least two games as he recovers from yet another surgery—this one on his back.
Should things go south for both of those guys, then changes happen elsewhere in terms of wide receiver rankings, running back rankings, and so on. Heck, Tim Tebow could very well find himself on the tight end rankings by the time we release cheat sheets. So stay tuned.
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As for the rest of tight end lot, there was a time in fantasyland that if you didn’t nab Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez at the position, you might as well forget it. The big, burly blocker types dominated the position landscape, and the few with athletic builds a la Kellen Davis also came with hands a la Kellen Davis. These days, not so much.
Check out the top 10 across all formats. If you’re in a 10-team league, you have nothing to worry about. Sure, you’re feeling good if you nab Jimmy Graham, but are you really going to be upset if you trot Owen Daniels or Kyle Rudolph out there on a weekly basis? The answer should be no, assuming you strengthened your roster in other areas while waiting to fill your tight end position.
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Those in larger leagues have a little more volatility to worry about, but still, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Pettigrew, Fred Davis and Dustin Keller, for all their questions, are more than capable of putting up starter-worthy fantasy digits on a weekly basis. And there are always sleepers, like Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, and maybe even Rob Housler.
In my other positional write-ups I haven’t done much draft strategy discussion, but in the case of tight ends this year I think it’s worth it. I’m not overpaying for a top five tight end this season, because by the time my draft is over, if I’ve landed two of my top 18 in any scoring system—even numbers 17 and 18—I’ve cast myself a reasonable net for success. Sure, the upside of a top five tight end may not be there, but I can make a reasonable argument for as many as 20 tight ends winding up in the top 10 in positional scoring, and if you’ve appropriately built your roster elsewhere, all you need is a top 10 tight end to be successful.
I’d also anticipate at least two waiver wire types winding up vying for top 10 or 12 fantasy tight end status by the end of the year, so if you go the risky route in your draft, be ready to act on early-season success elsewhere—think Heath Miller from last year. Heck, Heath Miller could be this year’s version of Heath Miller considering he’s coming back from injury and not likely to be drafted, but could still help your squad the final 10 weeks of the fantasy season.
Regardless, I think I’ve made my point. Talented tight ends are plentiful.
Have a question? Take umbrage with any of my rankings? Want to discuss the topic further? Post in the comments section and let’s chat! And if enough questions trickle in through the course of the offseason and training camp, I’ll post a few mailbag stories. Thanks for reading. Now comment away! (more…)
In the coming weeks, ZoneBlitz will feature rankings for each fantasy position in five scoring formats. The rankings will be accompanied by a brief article highlighting some of the big names, surprises and sleepers. Combined cheat sheets for each format will be available August 1 and constantly updated based on the latest news to keep you prepared for your drafts.
Editor’s Note: Wide receiver rankings are the third of six rankings to be posted to ZoneBlitz.com. Quarterback rankings can be found here, and running back rankings can be found here.
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With guys like Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant and AJ Green all bona fide fantasy studs, and the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Andre Johnson and Julio Jones close behind, there arguably hasn’t been a better time to be selecting near the turn at the back end of the first round of your fantasy draft. Walk away from the first three rounds with Marshall, Jones and even a Victor Cruz, Steve Smith or Jordy Nelson in round three? Yes, have some.
The top 20 or so receivers in this year’s fantasy rankings all come with little downside, so those that go RB/QB in the first
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couple rounds should still be happy with their No. 1 wideout. From there, things get interesting. How well will Tavon Austin click with Sam Bradford right away? Will Torrey Smith become a legit No. 1 fantasy receiver with Anquan Boldin now in San Francisco? And how will Boldin handle the burden of being a No. 1 receiver with Michael Crabtree hurt? What will be left at the teat of Peyton Manning (not literally) for Eric Decker after Thomas and Wes Welker get their fill? Is Christian Ponder (or Matt Cassel) good enough to keep Greg Jennings in your lineup on a weekly basis? This is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to receiver questions in the 20-50 range, where you’ll be filling out the back end of your receiver lot. There will be a couple borderline WR1s in that mix by the time the season’s done, and those guys will be common names among fantasy champions by season’s end.
Now obviously I’ve staked my claim in terms of who I like and don’t like based on these rankings, but please understand that rankings must take into consideration risk, along with rough estimates of average draft position. If I thought that James Jones would break through as this season’s No. 1 fantasy receiver, I wouldn’t rank him No. 1. I wouldn’t even rank him No. 4. There’s too much upside with the players already there. But I would creep Jones up to ahead of where he’s ranked basically anywhere else, which means I’d grab him a round or two before anyone else was thinking about him, while not ruining his value by selecting him in the first round.
Considering this logic, you’ll note where guys like Randall Cobb, Larry Fitzgerald and, a little further down, Danny Amendola are ranked. I used the example of Jones previously, but Cobb is the receiver I want if I just get one from Green Bay. And I think Fitzy regains his place among fantasy football’s elite with a competent quarterback running a competent offense now in Arizona. And while Amendola comes with some injury history and is in a new environment, his versatility and status as New England’s lone high-end wide receiver makes me bullish on him heading into the season. Tom Brady finds a way to win games. He’ll do so with Amendola as a conduit to success.
In the 25-45 range I could definitely see DeSean Jackson and Kendall Wright moving up based on how training camps go, and in the 46-65 range I think the biggest movers are likely to be Alshon Jeffery, Santonio Holmes and potentially Jacoby Jones. I also wouldn’t sleep on Ryan Broyles. If he’s healthy in training camp, he’ll push Nate Burleson for that No. 2 job in Detroit right away, which would vault him easily into the top 50 as his upside is higher than Burleson’s.
Have a question? Take umbrage with any of my rankings? Want to discuss the topic further? Post in the comments section and let’s chat! And if enough questions trickle in through the course of the offseason and training camp, I’ll post a few mailbag stories. Thanks for reading. Now comment away!
In the coming weeks, ZoneBlitz will feature rankings for each fantasy position in five scoring formats. The rankings will be accompanied by a brief article highlighting some of the big names, surprises and sleepers. Combined cheat sheets for each format will be available August 1 and constantly updated based on the latest news to keep you prepared for your drafts.
Will he or won’t he see his three-year run of fantasy dominance come to an end. This question about Arian Foster is being hotly debated in fantasy circles and drafters decide whether he’s worth taking second overall. The upside seems too high NOT to take Foster there, and in fact he’s my No. 1 runner in touchdown heavy formats after reaching paydirt 47 times the last three years. That said, I won’t deny the faint chimes of warning bells. He’s coming off a career-low in yards-per-carry, though 4.1 is hardly worth complaining about. He also carried the ball a career-high 351 times, though his 391 total touches were second most to 2010 when he added 66 receptions to his 327 carries. That said, his 2011 season marked low points in yardage and touchdowns over his last three seasons as he was forced to miss three games. If this is enough to scare you, you shouldn’t have trouble shopping that second pick.
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Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell should jump into the mix as RB2s right away as rookies, though I don’t think they are capable of sneaking into RB1 territory the way Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris did a year ago. Steven Jackson also gets plenty of love from me as an RB2, as he’ll get more goal-line opportunities thanks to pass-interference calls drawn by Roddy White and Julio Jones alone than he did total chances in the red zone his last few seasons in St. Louis. Speaking of the Rams, that’s a team to watch during training camp as Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead and Zac Stacy all vie for top dog status in what should be a solid offense. Expect those three to see their rankings move quite a bit based on what happens.
Green Bay’s running back battle is another to watch, though I do think the upside of both Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin is limited to RB3 status unless one is able to win virtually all the work in that backfield. Keeping with that theme, Detroit has an interesting duo to watch in Reggie Bush and Mikel LeShoure, though the two backs fill specific roles and we basically know how they will be used barring health. It’s a different story for the Jets, who have Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson as their new toys, assuming Goodson doesn’t wind up in an orange jumpsuit thanks to his recent legal woes. Ivory’s rank has been bumped up accordingly, though training camp could shift both of them significantly.
If you’re looking for a deep sleeper, rookie Stepfan Taylor is my guy. He’s a great fit for that Arizona offense. Problem is, Rashard Mendenhall is Bruce Arians’ guy from their days in Pittsburgh. So Mendy will need to look bad in August or get hurt somewhere along the way for Taylor to truly get a shot at enough work to be a useful fantasy asset.
Have a question? Take umbrage with any of my rankings? Want to discuss the topic further? Post in the comments section and let’s chat! And if enough questions trickle in through the course of the offseason and training camp, I’ll post a few mailbag stories. Thanks for reading. Now comment away!
In the coming weeks, ZoneBlitz will feature rankings for each fantasy position in five scoring formats. The rankings will be accompanied by a brief article highlighting some of the big names, surprises and sleepers. Combined cheat sheets for each format will be available August 1 and constantly updated based on the latest news to keep you prepared for your drafts.
Editor’s Note: Quarterback rankings are the first of six rankings to be posted to ZoneBlitz.com. PPR rankings for quarterbacks are the same as Standard rankings, hence only four are listed for this position.
If you’re a fantasy football veteran, you know the routine by now. In most league formats, the stud running backs go off the board first. Whether there are one, two, four or seven RBs deemed stud worthy, they are the first dominos to fall. Then the draft strategy truly begins. Is there a borderline stud runner you’re confident in? Do you grab the top receiver? The best quarterback? A decade ago, throwing a signal-caller on your roster to lead things off was at best a faux pas, and at worst a roster-crippling mistake. But in today’s NFL, aerial attacks are as potent as ever and quarterbacks are redefining the position. In doing so, some are consistently returning first-round value and have been for long enough that you should feel confident snagging one despite any historical aversions you may have experienced.
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So if you’re on the clock in the mid- to late-first round and have Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers staring back at you as the best player available, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Scoring systems that weren’t weighted to mute QB points last year led to anywhere from five to seven quarterbacks landing in the top 10 in overall fantasy points. Please note: This doesn’t mean five quarterbacks should be off the board in the first round in 2013. Brees and Rodgers are consistently among the top three or four in quarterback scoring and have very little changing around them. It’s why you can be confident to take them early. Guys like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady won’t last much longer, and in larger leagues may in fact sneak into the first round as well, though as of early June only Manning had late-first/early-second status at Mock Draft Central.
Generally speaking, though, if you go RB/WR early in your draft, there’s still plenty to like at the quarterback position. In standard scoring I’m very confident in the guys all the way down through No. 8. From there questions arise, like Robert Griffin’s health, Matt Stafford’s schedule, Russell Wilson’s statistical upside, Tony Romo’s turnovers, Sam Bradford’s ability to raise his game to the next level, and so on. Griffin and Stafford both have the ability to put up top five fantasy numbers at the position, while have top 10 upside at best.
I expect Michael Vick to move up as training camp progresses once he’s officially named the starter and assuming he adapts well to Chip Kelly’s offense. Jay Cutler has fantasy starter upside if Chicago’s continued efforts to upgrade its offensive line pan out, and I’m very intrigued by Carson Palmer in Bruce Arians’ offense in Arizona with Larry Fitzgerald as his top target. No offense to Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Well, maybe a little offense to them. The NFC West provides a brutal schedule that tempers my enthusiasm some, but Palmer could be a top 15 fantasy signal caller once the dust settles on 2013.
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As for the rookies, in general I’d say don’t expect anything like 2012 for a very long time. A trio like Andrew Luck, Griffin and Wilson is incredibly rare. I don’t have a 2013 rookie rated even in the top 30, though I’d expect Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel to both settle in around No. 25 or so should either be named the starter in training camp.
Have a question? Take umbrage with any of my rankings? Want to discuss the topic further? Post in the comments section and let’s chat! And if enough questions trickle in through the course of the offseason and training camp, I’ll post a few mailbag stories. Thanks for reading. Now comment away!
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We can disagree on the order (some getting in before others) but frankly when it comes to the modern finalists…
I'll stick to my opinions and leave it there
"Robert let me explain what Porter’s family has to do with the election I bet they’ve heard the complaints too"…
Robert yes I did see it I check talk of fame everyday
Andy did you see this: https://talkoffametwo.com/nfl/hall-of-fame-voting-changes I'd be OK with this