Week 3 Whiparound

by | Sep 23, 2013 | Fantasy Football

Week 3 of the NFL season provided a good reminder to fantasy football players—certainly one that’s good for me to have every now and again: don’t overthink it.

Examples:

1) “Should I sit Russell Wilson this week? The Seahawks should run all over Jacksonville.”

— I dropped Wilson in my rankings based on just that premise, and his yardage was a good indication that Seattle didn’t need to pass much. But four touchdowns later, it should be noted that just because something should happen doesn’t mean it will.

2) “Should I start Sam Bradford over <insert stud quarterback here>?”

— Yes, Bradford had two good games. And yes, his completion percentage and quarterback ratings are both career bests thus far. But he hasn’t proven anything over the long term yet, and should be used with caution until he shows that back-to-back decent fantasy performances are more than blips on the radar.

3) Not just anyone can be Peyton Manning.

— I never could’ve predicted seven touchdowns in Week 1, but I did note that Manning was likely going to roll the Ravens in a revenge game after last year’s playoff loss. But I made the mistake in carrying that adage over to the San Francisco 49ers after they took a beating in Seattle, figuring the Colin Kaepernick from Week 1 would show up at home against a Colts defense that isn’t anything special. Whether I overrated the Niners or underrated Indy, or both, that swing-and-miss led to bad calls on both the San Francisco and Colts side of the ball.

4) No. 1 receivers are No. 1s for a reason.

— I was all for benching Antonio Brown and Cecil Shorts this week. Whoops.

It’s perfectly reasonable to ding a guy’s ranking based on facing Darrelle Revis or Joe Haden, but to do so simply because they play for a bad team and are going against a good team isn’t always smart business. In fact, both teams responded to a difficult challenge by targeting their best player even more (makes sense), as Shorts went for 8-143 on a season high 15 targets, and Brown went off for 9-196 and two touchdowns on a season-high 13 targets.

The Shorts one I don’t feel too terrible about, as Seattle had been annihilating fantasy wideouts for two weeks. But Brown followed the mold of AJ Green, who also scored twice on the Bears.

5) Coaches aren’t always liars.

— The Bengals said they wanted backfield duties to be a 50/50 split after two weeks of BenJarvus Green-Ellis owning the lion’s share of carries. And sure enough, Cincy came through. Both Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard rushed 10 times, with Bernard adding four catches as well. So long as the split remains this way, Bernard is a weekly fantasy starter. Green-Ellis scored in Week 3 to salvage some fantasy value, but going forward I’ll have a hard time ranking him as more than a flex play at best.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Position Rankings

by | Sep 18, 2013 | Fantasy Football

Zoneblitz.com’s weekly position-by-position breakdown to help YOU set your fantasy lineup!

Quarterbacks

  1. Peyton Manning vs. Oakland
  2. Matthew Stafford at Washington
  3. Aaron Rodgers at Cincinnati
  4. Drew Brees vs. Arizona
  5. Andy Dalton vs. Green Bay
  6. Colin Kaepernick vs. Indianapolis
  7. Cam Newton vs. NY Giants
  8. Matt Ryan at Miami
  9. Tom Brady vs. Tampa Bay
  10. Sam Bradford at Dallas
  11. Eli Manning at Carolina
  12. Tony Romo vs. St. Louis
  13. Russell Wilson vs. Jacksonville
  14. Matt Schaub at Baltimore
  15. Philip Rivers at Tennessee
  16. Andrew Luck at San Francisco
  17. Robert Griffin III vs. Detroit
  18. Ryan Tannehill vs. Atlanta
  19. Joe Flacco vs. Houston
  20. Jay Cutler at Pittsburgh
  21. Terrelle Pryor at Denver
  22. Jake Locker vs. San Diego
  23. Carson Palmer at New Orleans
  24. EJ Manuel at NY Jets
  25. Geno Smith vs. Buffalo

I felt like I was reaching just getting Tom Brady in my top 10 against the Bucs’ improved secondary with his depleted receiving corps, but he’s at home and may have Rob Gronkowski back, so I snuck him in there. Week 3 will be the biggest challenge yet for Michael Vick, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer. It’ll be interesting to see how each responds.

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Week 2 Whiparound

by | Sep 15, 2013 | Fantasy Football

Eddie Royal scored five touchdowns in his 91-catch rookie season for the Denver Broncos back in 2008. In 52 games over his next four seasons, Royal scored five touchdowns total. And in two games this season he has … you guessed it, five touchdowns.

Royal has certainly earned himself a roster spot in fantasy leagues of all sizes, but before we start talking about him as a regular WR2, or even WR3, let’s see how he performs against a better pass defense. The Eagles and Texans were both among the 10 most fantasy WR friendly defenses in the NFL last season, the former allowing the most WR touchdowns in the league.

If two weeks of game film and a better defense don’t do the trick, I’ll happily endorse Royal as the fantasy asset he was five years ago.

Speaking of guys who used to be good—that’s back-to-back decent weeks for Darren McFadden. He actually looked a lot better this week than last week, but part of that has to do with playing at home against a Jacksonville team that looks like it’ll be in the hunt for the No. 1 pick in 2014. With so many running backs injured this week—Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, Eddie Lacy, Maurice Jones-Drew—the time is now to see if you can get anything for McFadden. It’s likely to be a short window in which he’s both healthy AND productive.

Same probably goes for Rashard Mendhall, who went for 94 combo yards and a touchdown against the Lions. Health isn’t Mendenhall’s forte, and rookie Andre Ellington showed flashes of why he’s the guy dynasty owners should be eying up over Stepfan Taylor. (more…)

Week 2 Fantasy Football Position Rankings

by | Sep 11, 2013 | Fantasy Football

Zoneblitz.com’s weekly position-by-position breakdown to help YOU set your fantasy lineup!

 

Quarterbacks

  1. Drew Brees at Tampa Bay
  2. Peyton Manning at NY Giants
  3. Aaron Rodgers vs. Washington
  4. Cam Newton at Buffalo
  5. Matt Ryan vs. St. Louis
  6. Michael Vick vs. San Diego
  7. Andrew Luck vs. Miami
  8. Tony Romo at Kansas City
  9. Carson Palmer vs. Detroit
  10. Jay Cutler vs. Minnesota
  11. Matthew Stafford at Arizona
  12. Andy Dalton vs. Pittsburgh
  13. Eli Manning vs. Denver
  14. Robert Griffin at Green Bay
  15. Colin Kaepernick at Seattle
  16. Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco
  17. Josh Freeman vs New Orleans
  18. Matt Schaub vs. Tennessee
  19. Philip Rivers at Philadelphia
  20. Joe Flacco vs. Cleveland
  21. Alex Smith vs. Dallas
  22. Terrelle Pryor vs. Jacksonville
  23. EJ Manuel vs Carolina
  24. Sam Bradford at Atlanta
  25. Jake Locker at Tennessee

 

Seems weird to put Peyton Manning at No. 2, but Drew Brees threw for 784 yards and eight touchdowns against Tampa Bay last year. Let’s go ahead and just say both are nice plays. Really there are 15 quarterbacks I’m fine with this week, and No. 16 and 17 are interesting considering they are Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson. Obviously when you took an NFC West quarterback you knew you were in for a handful of tough matchups. I can buy the argument that you don’t want to bench either of those guys, just know that there’s a higher potential than usual for some ugly numbers.

 

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Week 1 Whiparound

by | Sep 8, 2013 | Fantasy Football

When I talked this preseason about the quarterback class being deep, this is what I meant.

With three games to go we already had 15 quarterbacks with multiple passing touchdowns. Sure, Peyton Manning blew everyone out of the water, but you could’ve started Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer or Andy Dalton and probably today been happier than the Tom Brady and Matt Ryan owners considering what was expected of the two of them. And what’s more, EJ Manuel and Terrelle Pryor went from unknowns to matchup plays and bye-week fill-ins. In dynasty leagues, both should probably be grabbed now.

Same goes for Julius Thomas, not that you needed me to tell you that. But I should note—we more than likely saw his best game of the season on Thursday night. He’s the fourth option at best in the passing game, and Manning is going to settle in the 2-4 touchdowns per night range post haste. Plus, if they want to truly be a Super Bowl contender, they’ll need to get that running game going.

Turns out there’s still some tread on Anquan Boldin’s tires. Next week is a bit dicey going against last year’s best defense at limiting wide receiver fantasy scoring, but how to you bench a guy that just got targeted 17 times and topped 200 yards? What’ll really be interesting is how things get divvied up once Michael Crabtree is back at full strength—though that may not be until next season.

Zach Sudfeld disappointed a few fantasy owners this week with his goose-egg, including myself. Meanwhile, Julian Edelman grabbed a pair of touchdowns, and Kenbrell Thompkins was targeted 14 times. There are enough decent tight ends out there at this point that I’m not going to advocate starting Sudfeld again. That’s not to say he couldn’t go out and get 10 targets next week, but Brady’s obviously comfortable with Edelman has his lone holdover from last year’s receiving corps until Rob Gronkowski gets back. And once that happens, we’ll get a good idea of what the coaching staff really thinks of Sudfeld. But honestly, I’m more interested in how this running game will shake out.

My hope is that Bill Belichick’s message was received by Stevan Ridley, who was benched after his second-quarter fumble. Shane Vereen got most of the work thereafter and looked good doing it. If Belichick liked what he saw too, Ridley owners could be in for a previously unexpected timeshare for the foreseeable future. Great news for Vereen owners! (UPDATE: Vereen is out for 3-4 weeks after breaking a bone in his wrist. Great news for Ridley owners?)

Speaking of running back situations, the one in Miami is of personal interest to me as I wound up with Lamar Miller in three leagues. To be fair, none of the Dolphins backs looked good as the team couldn’t run the ball at all. Miller got 11 touches to Daniel Thomas’ nine, but Thomas got the fourth quarter goal-line look. For now, I wouldn’t start either guy until we get more information or hear something definitive from coach Joe Philbin.

I would, however, start both Detroit running backs if need be, as Joique Bell showed he’s a handcuff with benefits. I wouldn’t expect the Lions to produce an excess of goal-line opportunities, but it looks like Bell will get them—and also plenty of work in the passing game. Bell can be added in most leagues, and certainly be a replacement for Shonn Greene if you rostered him. Jackie Battle got the goal-line look for Tennessee despite Greene having a couple runs earlier in the drive.

At wide receiver, I’m curious to see how the Indianapolis situation continues to play out. The Colts should’ve been able to throw all over the Raiders, but while Andrew Luck was having a good fantasy day, TY Hilton and Darrius Heyward-Bey were combining for 53 yards on six catches. And while Dwayne Allen sneaked in some value with a touchdown, he and Coby Fleener still just managed three combined targets. I’m not worried, but I am on alert.

I like what I saw from Jared Cook—minus getting stripped at the goal line of course. He’s an early front-runner to be best of that secondary bunch of tight ends after Witten, Gonzo and Davis. And finally, welcome back Larry Fitzgerald. I expected Palmer would do plenty of good for Fitzy, but they obviously got on the same page even quicker than expected. He’s officially back on my “do not bench” list.