Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2014 NFL Best Bets

weekly-betsAfter a mostly putrid 2013 season of betting, Tony and I actually both start the season ahead after one week. We took completely opposite paths toward getting there – Tony was aggressive out of the gate, laying more than 20 percent of his hypothetical opening bankroll on the line. I took it easy a bit, wagering less than 10 percent. Between us we hit five of eight picks and added a push.

Here’s where we stand so far:

  Week 1 Season Week +/- Bankroll Season +/-
Tony 3-1 3-1 +$618 $10,618 +$618
Andy 2-1-1 2-1-1 +$173 $10,173 +$173

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Buy or Sell: Montee Ball

Montee Ball came to Denver last season highly touted. But inexperience shone through and he spent his rookie season out of the buying-sellinglimelight as Knowshon Moreno came out of nowhere to post a great season.

With Moreno in Miami, Ball has the opportunity this season to put a stranglehold on the starting RB job in one of the league’s most potent offenses. But now he’s missed a portion of camp while recovering from an appendix surgery. Can he recover and fulfill his potential in 2014? Or will this turn into another lost season for the Broncos’ preferred top RB?

Montee Ball
ADP: 26.6
RB: 13

Buy: Maggio

Montee Ball’s ADP continues to fall since his appendectomy left him sidelined for the next couple of weeks. Do people think that everyone else in the NFL still has their appendix? Ball’s going 13th among running backs right now, which is an absolute steal.

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Buy or Sell: Matt Ryan

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers remain the Big Three when it comes to fantasy football QBs. After that there’s a buying-sellingmess of guys in the second and third tiers who can win you championships. Matt Ryan falls somewhere in that mix.

Even sans Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has all the skill position talent a signal caller could need to rack up money-making stats. Yet Ryan, so far in his career, seems to be just short of living up to what people are expecting. With Julio Jones back, Roddy White returning healthy and Harry Douglas now an established number three, is this the year Ryan takes his game up a notch? Or does a faulty offensive line pair with a questionable ground attack to once again leave Ryan owners frustrated?

Matt Ryan
ADP: 87
QB: 12

Buy: Anthony

If you weren’t on the Matt Ryan bandwagon early last year, you were stuck in standing room only. With two top targets in Julio Jones and Roddy White, plus a Hall of Fame tight end, Ryan was a popular choice to sneak into the top five at quarterback. Instead, his offensive line went to hell, Jones missed the season with an injury, White played hurt much of the season, and the Falcons season went bust. Yet Ryan STILL managed to finish ninth at the position in fantasy points. What does he get for his efforts? An ADP of 12th at the quarterback position. (more…)

Buy or Sell: Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson has played with some mediocre QBs, from David Carr to Case Keenum, throughout his 11-year career and all he has buying-sellingdone was put up numbers. But as he enters year 12, it appears as though he’s tiring of that situation – he spent much of the offseason publicly pondering life away from the Texans.

The aging vet has still put up 3,005 receiving yards the past two seasons combined. Does he have another season of consistency and production in him? Or is this the year that fantasy drafters regret taking the Texans wideout?

Andre Johnson
ADP: 34.9
WR: 11

Buy: Tony

Several people I know have been down on Andre Johnson in fantasy circles for several seasons, citing his advancing age, his missing of 9 games in 2011 (and 3 in 2010), and lack of double digit touchdown seasons. And you can’t deny any of those factors. Hell, this year you can add in DeAndre Hopkins being in his second season, and playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick to the mix. (more…)

Buy or Sell: Steve Smith

Steve Smith hasn’t been much of a fantasy factor for awhile now. His red zone opportunities have been swallowed up by guys like buying-sellingGreg Olsen and he’s clearly been slowed by age.

But he’s moved on now to Baltimore where he no longer has to be the main cog in a passing game. Can he pick up the pace under the rocket arm of Joe Flacco and become fantasy relevant once again? Or is he hanging on too long, delaying the inevitable retirement in lieu of squeezing out one or two more years of paychecks?

Steve Smith
ADP: 126.4
WR: 46

Buy: Tony

Baltimore fans should get used to the name Smith being called this year—although that may have just as much to do with Torrey as it does with Steve, who joins the team in his 14th season. There’s no doubt that Steve Smith is not likely to be a WR1 candidate for the season, especially since his last truly relevant fantasy season was 2011, when he put up nearly 1,400 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, as a guy currently averaging 126 in overall draft position, there is some positivity—when was the last time Smith was on a team with more than one viable WR passing threat? Or a QB whose play calls seemed to read “Look for target receiver, then pull it down and run?” (more…)