by Andy | Sep 28, 2010 | NFL Random Thoughts
Miami didn’t beat the New York Jets Sunday night but I found myself impressed with several aspects of the team.
Cameron Wake was a monster on defense, pressuring the quarterback and on one play fighting off a lineman attempting a cut block while maintaining enough balance to still jump up, knock down Mark Sanchez’ pass and almost intercept the deflection.
Brandon Marshall and Chad Henne finally found each other. The duo connected 10 times for 166 yards and almost gave the Dolphins a chance to tie the game at the end. Marshall finally justified the price Miami paid to get him this offseason and it looked to me like those two have a lot to look forward to the rest of the season.
But one thing the Dolphins didn’t do well was execute the so-called Wildcat offense. Every time someone other than Henne took a snap on Sunday night, the Jets appeared ready to stop the run. I don’t remember them gaining more than a yard or two on any run. They lost yards on a couple. And Ronnie Brown, on that fake run, drop back pass, looked like a panicked teenager surrounded by cops after getting busted on a late night beer binge before throwing a pass that landed about 15 yards over the receiver’s head.
The Wildcat was entertaining as a gimmicky offense when the Dolphins were otherwise undermanned. It helped them steal a couple games they shouldn’t have won, including the blowout over New England when Tony Sparano first unveiled the new offense.
But let’s be real. Miami has a strong-armed up-and-coming quarterback in Henne and some real weapons at wide receiver and tight end in Marshall, Brian Hartline, Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano. It’s not the strongest group in the league but it’s a good mix of players who have legit skills. They continue to have a solid two-back combo in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, though the latter has not gotten on track yet.
And they’ve got one of the league’s best left tackles anchoring a line that seems to be sneaky good. Coupled with a defense that appears to be among the league’s better, there is less reason for the Dolphins to mess with the Wildcat, especially as it appears to be losing effectiveness.
During the game Sunday night, there were at least two occasions during which the Dolphins appeared to have some good momentum going. Then Henne went to the sidelines, Brown took some snaps and seconds later it was third and long.
It was entertaining and effective for awhile. But I don’t think the Dolphins need, nor are they better off, taking out their best personnel groupings for a high school-style offense that the league appears to have solved. Miami can now win without this kitten of an offensive strategy.
by Andy | Sep 25, 2010 | NFL Random Thoughts
San Diego Chargers General Manager A.J. Smith is known for being a tough executive to negotiate with over player contracts. The team has spent years drafting well, using those players through the early years of their careers, then drafting their replacements and letting those mid-to-late career guys go on to other teams.
When Drew Brees’ deal was up, the Chargers let him go to New Orleans and promoted Philip Rivers. LaDainian Tomlinson was the face of the franchise for nine years. But as his value fell even he was shown the door. That’s just two examples.
It’s led to a number of tense situations. Linebacker Shawne Merriman has had a couple of verbal sparring sessions with Smith and, likely, he will be one of the next big-name players to find a new home soon — he very likely would have already if the collective bargaining agreement’s pending end hadn’t converted a couple hundred players from unrestricted free agents to restricted free agents last offseason.
(more…)
by Andy | Sep 15, 2010 | Fantasy Football
There has been a lot of steam around Matt Forte this offseason, both in real life and in fantasy football circles, where team owners have endlessly debated what the Bears running back would look like under Mike Martz’ system.
While I expect that he will be better than he was in 2009, savvy owners have already begun selling high after his Player of the Week performance against Detroit on Sunday. If you haven’t you should follow.
Through his first two seasons, Forte has five 100 yard rushing games. Three of those came in his rookie season of 2008 when everyone thought he was an emerging star. Those games came against Detroit, St. Louis and Indianapolis or, in order, the 32nd, 29th and 24th best run defenses in the league.
Still, his 1238 yards and 12 touchdowns (eight rushing, four receiving) had owners salivating heading into 2009. Those who got their hands on him were let down dramatically. Fighting through injuries, he mustered just 929 yards rushing and four touchdowns, all on the ground.
His stock fell dramatically heading into this season as the Bears added Chester Taylor. But he’s on fire right now. In one of my leagues an owner already got Reggie Wayne for the Bears back off his Sunday performance.
I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers to see why:
Even in his 1,238 yard rookie season, if you take out the three 100 yard games he had 937 yards on 258 carries, which amounts to 3.6 yards per carry and 72 yards per game. In 2009, he had two 100 yard rushing games – both against Detroit. So subtract those games and you’re left with 707 yards on 230 carries, or 3.1 yards per rush.
His five 100 yard games all time come against some of the worst run defenses of the last decade. His offensive line is terrible. And while I expect he will be more valuable this year, I hardly expect him to put up 151 yards receiving every week. Detroit is better than they have been but most definitely not yet a good defense by any stretch of the imagination.
Heading into the season, he had 384 yards in four games against the Lions, or 96 yards per game. In 28 games against other teams he has 1783 yards, or 64 per game. That’s pretty mediocre for a guy who has been pretty much unquestioned as the starter since his first game in the NFL.
And lost in his performance Sunday, Forte rushed for just 50 yards on 17 carries, less than three yards per carry.
Again, I do think Forte is better than his 2009 indicates. He is a good receiver, having put up 63 catches in 2008 and 57 in 2009, so he’s valuable in point per reception leagues and he might push 100 catches in Martz’ offense.
But he doesn’t get to play his entire career against Detroit. If he did, he would probably already be spending his off days posing for the bust he would eventually have at the Hall of Fame in Canton.
You can’t count on him breaking 80 yard touchdown receptions every week and, while he’ll catch a lot of balls, you can’t count on him to house two touchdowns every week.
Until he starts putting those numbers up against teams other than St. Louis and Detroit, I’d hang onto Reggie Waynes and Andre Johnsons and let some other sucker give away his elite players for this historically mediocre back.
by Andy | Sep 12, 2010 | 2010 NFL Season Preview
Here it is: The final divisional preview: the NFC South, home of the defending champion New Orleans Saints.
Blogs from Carolina and Atlanta sent along some thoughts. They’ll follow mine.
Andy Tellijohn, Zoneblitz.com
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints won’t repeat the record they had last season but they’ll come close. The offense will still be explosive and aggressive and the defense will play off of that with its aggressive style.
There is too much firepower for any team to overtake New Orleans at the top of the South.
I think Atlanta and Carolina will compete for second place. Atlanta is the trendy pick but I’m higher on Carolina than most. I see them as a sleeper. They’ve got two fantastic running backs and Matt Moore solidified the quarterback position last season. The defense is suspect but if the Panthers can run well and control the clock they’ll be more competitive than people think.
I do expect Michael Turner to rebound and for Matt Ryan to continue progressing as a quarterback. And the Falcons could easily make me eat my words. It’ll be a good fight for potential wild card spots.
Tampa has added some interesting pieces. But they’re not close yet to knocking off any of the big three.
For the opinions of a couple team blogs click past the link:
(more…)
by Andy | Sep 12, 2010 | 2010 NFL Season Preview
The black and blue division I grew up watching has morphed into an aerial show featuring gunslingers Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, as well as hopefuls Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford. These teams should be able to put some points on the board in 2010, with two Super Bowl contenders and two up-and-coming teams looking to improve upon dismal 2009 seasons.
Two bloggers helped us out with some comments. Their comments follow ours:
Andy Tellijohn, Zoneblitz.com
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
I’ve been a lifelong Vikings fan. The 1998, 2000 and 2009 seasons raised and then dashed my hopes of seeing an eventual Super Bowl champion from my hometown. The team has the talent necessary to make another run in 2010. But so far it just feels like the team doesn’t have the same mojo it had in 2009.
Everything went right last year. This year Sidney Rice is out for half the season. The offensive line didn’t get a chance to play together in the preseason. And the Vikes are counting on a couple of last year’s injured, Cedric Griffin and EJ Henderson, coming back and playing well.
Meanwhile the Green Bay Packers looked like they were on fire in the preseason. Not that those games mean a ton, but the offense looks like it will score a lot of points. Rodgers has plenty of weapons. Jermichael Finley looks like a stud.
If the defense can perform at an average level Green Bay could win 12 to 13 games and compete for the Super Bowl.
That would leave Chicago and Detroit fighting for third place. I like a lot of what the Lions have done in the couple years since giving Matt Millen the heave-ho. The defense is still suspect. But the additions of guys like Nate Burleson and Jahvid Best not only give them some offensive firepower but they should allow the Lions to better utilize the talents of Calvin Johnson, one of the league’s best receivers when healthy and perhaps Millen’s only real draft success.
I’m not convinced with the Bears yet. The offensive line has a great coach in Mike Tice but not a ton of talent. The receivers are unproven. And Jay Cutler hasn’t looked like he’s going to be worth the price the Bears paid for him. It’s no lock, but I’ll go out on a limb and say the Lions sneak past the Bears for third place.
A win out of the gates today would help them achieve that goal.
To see what a couple bloggers have to say, click past the jump:
(more…)
Loading ...
Robert ok see you then
Robert ok see you then
Brian i could 100% see that in terms of anderson being the next senior elected by the hall of fame…
Malcolm Butler for ruining my 16th birthday Russell Wilson for throwing out his loyalties and Arthur Blank for trading Matt…
Why would you be upset with Butler, Wilson and Blank, Andy?