ZB Notebook 10-15-13

Is Leslie Frazier feeling desperate? Frazier and the Vikings coaching staff have to be feeling the heat after an embarrassing 35-10 loss to Carolina dropped this 2012 playoff team’s record to 1-4.

ESPN 1500 notes in its writeup on the Vikings/Panthers game that Frazier uncharacteristically placed some of the blame for Sunday’s loss on the players rather than taking it all upon himself as he often does.

While it’s true that the players were pathetic in Sunday’s loss, Frazier’s defense of his coordinators – particularly offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave – rings hollow to me. The lack of creativity just oozed from the screens as I consistently watched the Vikings repeatedly run Peterson on first down, maybe run him again on second down or maybe run a short pass. Then on third down, it’d be another pass, generally short of the first-down marker.

All this going on while other teams were going deep, mixing up sequences, passing on first down … this team is foundering right now and the offensive play calling, whether based on a blasé coordinator or lack of confidence in the players, is a major reason.

The defense isn’t helping at all either. The Vikings made a major blunder in the offseason in letting Antoine Winfield go. Xavier Rhodes has shown flashes of being a solid cover cornerback, but Josh Robinson is a liability in the slot. I don’t generally pretend to be an expert on personnel moves, but Robinson needs to grab some bench. He was scorched on one of the long touchdowns during the 35-10 loss to Carolina and if he hasn’t found his way to the bench in favor of lesser-known-but-better-performing Marcus Sherels, then there is no accountability left in how this team is being handled. (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2013 NFL Best Bets

I’m far from saying we’re getting good at this sports gambling thing because we’re not. But we did put up a competent weekly-betsperformance in week five.

After a rough fourth week, I rebounded to hit three of four bets. My big moneyline bet on Jacksonville predictably did not pay off, but I hit my other three for a gain of $530 on $900 worth of bets.

It helped me and Tony both that Dallas and Denver went waaaaaaaaay over the 56.5 number. I had $250 on that bet. Tony had a massive $400 wager on the over. That propelled him to a $171 profit for the weekend on $900 in bets, even though he split at 2-2.

So I’m continuing to slowly add to the mythical $10,000 I started with. I’m closing in on $11,000, which would be a 10 percent return – not any kind of early retirement track, but better than investing in a CD. Tony got off to a rough start, but as you can see in the table below, he is rebounding nicely and approaching the break even mark.

Here’s to more weeks like the last one.

Week 5 Season Week +/- Bankroll Season +/-
Andy 3-1 10-10 +$530 $10,917 + $917
Tony 2-2 8-12 +$171 $9,789 – $211

(more…)

NFL Picks 2013: Week 6

We here at Zoneblitz had a tough Week 5 with none of our contributors hitting more than eight of the 14 contests. Several upsets and many unpredictable games between, frankly, bad teams left us all bunched together.weekly-picks

Consequently nobody gained or lost a lot of ground. I remain the leader. But just six games separate the top from the bottom in our standings for the season. So a big week by any one of us could create quite a swing.

Here are the standings:

  Week five Season totals
Andy 8-6 49-28
Maggio 8-6 47-30
Tony 7-7 46-31
Rich 7-7 43-34

We’re close to the one-third mark of the season so you’d think picking these games would get easier. But if you look over the last three weeks there have been a number of coin flip games. That continues into week six, with a couple of divisional games and a slate of contests between teams that don’t often play. So we’ll see if any of us can hit the jackpot.

Here are our picks: (more…)

ZB Notebook 10-8-13

When it rains it pours this season in Atlanta.

The day after a brutal performance on Monday night against the Jets, word has begun leaking that star wide receiver Julio Jones may be out for the season with a foot injury.

Jones appeared hobbled briefly late in the contest last night but returned to put on a heroic performance that almost brought the Falcons a win. Apparently the injury was worse than it originally looked.

Add that to the list, which also includes several offensive linemen, running back Steven Jackson and wide receiver Roddy White. Heading into the season, the Falcons looked to me to be the easy favorite for a repeat as AFC South champs. That has been quickly eclipsed by their 1-4 record and the fast start of the New Orleans Saints.

And it would likely get progressively worse if Jones does, in fact, miss significant time. Pretty soon Tony Gonzalez could be the only relatively healthy offensive weapon Matt Ryan has left. I wonder if he is rethinking his comeback?

Coaching hot seats? (more…)

Freeman picks Vikings as destination for his reclamation

The Minnesota Vikings appeared to further cut the cord with third-year QB Christian Ponder Sunday night when it was announced that they signed Tampa Bay castoff Josh Freeman.

Reports suggest that Freeman signed a one-year deal for around $3 million.

Ponder’s future already seemed in question when the 0-3 Vikings turned to Matt Cassel and emerged from London with a win that kept the season at least on life support.

While coach Leslie Frazier announced that Ponder would still be his starter when he returned to health, it’s been widely speculated that the coach would stick with Cassel until he faltered, using the rib injury as an excuse to keep Ponder on the bench. Honestly I thought the Vikings would pass on Freeman in deference to Ponder’s feelings and his confidence – they’ve not exactly taken to the “tough love” approach with their 2011 top pick before now.

In signing Freeman, they get a guy who has not been good in 2013, but who also has a tremendous amount of upside, as illustrated during a two-and-a-half month stretch of the 2012 season during which I was convinced he was developing into a solid QB.

This signing is low-risk for Minnesota. Ponder has already proven to most of the public that he’s not the guy. And Cassel is what he is – a stopgap who’s likely to spend the bulk of his career bouncing around from team to team as a top backup teams aren’t afraid to use when their starters get hurt.

And Freeman gets half a season to show the Vikes that he still can be more stud than dud – that his free fall had as much or more to do with shortcomings of coach Greg Schiano and less to do with his own alleged immaturity and poor study habits. He gets a chance to show Minnesota that they don’t have to pick a QB in the early rounds of the 2014 draft (though I personally think they should regardless of how Freeman plays). (more…)