Home teams take Saturday playoff games

by | Jan 3, 2009 | NFL Random Thoughts

Well, like I always say … or maybe should start saying, never bet against the home team in the playoffs.

San Diego dominated Indianapolis in the second Wild Card game Saturday evening. Though the overtime 23-17 score might not show it, if it weren’t for a fumble inside the five yard line and a defensive breakdown allowing Reggie Wayne to catch a 72 yard touchdown pass from Peyton Manning, the Chargers would have won hands down – as both John Madden and Matt Millen said on the NBC Post game coverage.

In the early game I underestimated the degree to which Kurt Warner’s veteran presence could impact the game. He outplayed rookie Matt Ryan in the Cardinals’ win over Atlanta. Interesting to see was the re-emergence of Edgerrin James, who was benched at mid-season and didn’t get more than a handful of carries until last week.

His 73 yards rushing gave Arizona a rare dual threat offense and he helped open up the passing game. I think James’ presence was the difference in the game.

At any rate, Saturday provided two exciting and interesting playoff games. If the Sunday games are as entertaining the NFL should be more than happy with its weekend.

Inevitable Favre talk starting already

by | Jan 3, 2009 | NFL Media, NFL News

There was no question that it was going to happen but did it have to start already?

We managed to watch one solid playoff game this afternoon during which Arizona upset Atlanta without a mention of New York Jets quarterback Brett Favre. But at halftime of the second game – which is shaping up to be another barnburner between Indianapolis and San Diego – Peter King of CNNSI.com was asked by the NBC Football halftime crew about Brett Favre’s future.

King had spoken with Favre and Jets General Manager Mike Tannenbaum and come to the conclusion that he believes Favre will hang up his cleats during the offseason, this time for good.

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Playoff predictions

by | Jan 3, 2009 | NFL Gambling

So I managed to close the season with a 3-1 mark, bringing my Best Bets total to 20-18. With the vig it’s probably not enough to break even in Vegas, but it’s better than going 1-3.

So, I’m going to make playoff picks too. Why not. (All of these picks are both straight up and against the spread)

1. Atlanta at Arizona: Pick ’em
Arizona has not been playing well the last month. Their last five wins have been against Seattle twice, St. Louis twice and San Francisco. Atlanta has the strongest running game in the NFL. And Matt Ryan, rookie of the year quarterback, has been strong at home and on the road. Winner: Atlanta

2. Indianapolis at San Diego (+1):
Both teams have quarterbacks playing extremely well and both teams went on winning streaks to get where they are. Indy won in San Diego earlier in the season and while the Chargers are constructed to beat the Colts, they really miss Shawne Merriman against a quarterback like Peyton Manning. Plus LaDainian Tomlinson enters the playoffs hurting. Winner: Indianapolis

3. Baltimore at Miami (+3.5)
Miami is the comeback story of the season. But the run ends here. The Dolphins aren’t going to be able to run against Baltimore and they can’t win on passing alone. It’ll be a low-scoring game but the Ravens will use their three-headed running attack to pull away in the  end. Winner: Baltimore

4. Philadelphia at Minnesota (+3)
The Eagles play in one of the two toughest divisions in football and the Vikings don’t. The Eagles blitzing pass rush will either confuse Tarvaris Jackson or pummel Gus Frerotte. With Pat Williams looking less and less likely to play for Minnesota Philadelphia might even get the run game going. The Eagles will make it a clean sweep for the road teams. Winner: Philadelphia

Fixing Detroit: Lions must start in the trenches

by | Dec 30, 2008 | NFL News, NFL Random Thoughts

While the Detroit Lions will never completely live down the infamy of a 0-16 season the team must put the just-completed season behind them if they are going to begin turning five decades of putridity around.

Promoting Tom Lewand to president and Martin Meyhew to general manager aren’t the moves I would have made to start the process, but it’s the players, not the front office types that are going to be most key in any turnaround.

I’m no general manager and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But I do have some thoughts on what the team needs to do to start what will be a multi-year process.

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Monday presents few major surprises

by | Dec 29, 2008 | NFL Random Thoughts

The NFL regular season ended Sunday and on Monday the carnage began.

Romeo Crennel, Cleveland; Eric Mangini, New York Jets; and Rod Marinelli, Detroit are all looking for new jobs with rumors swirling of possible changes in Oakland, Dallas and several other markets.

None of the firings announced Monday were shocking, though Mangini’s axing did come on the heels of a 9-7 season.

Perhaps the most bizarre of the situations was in Cleveland, where owner Randy Lerner announced that Crennel could possibly stay on the coaching staff in another capacity, according to the team’s Web site.

That’d be … awkward.

Many more changes are likely to occur in the near future. Makes me wonder what happened to continuity – look at Pittsburgh, where they change coaches about every other decade. Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher both lasted just short of forever and Mike Tomlin appears entrenched into the future as well.

That organization has five Super Bowl championships and another appearance in the big game. Perhaps that model is something to learn from.