Playoff picks: Wild Card weekend, 2021

by Andy | Jan 14, 2022 | 2021 season, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

Let’s finish up the regular season first. The fourth lead change of the season was the most important one. Andy capitalized on Tony missing five of his picks, including his top guess on Indianapolis over Jacksonville, to pull off a stunning reversal on his woeful beginning to the season in alternative picks.

A solid last week wasn’t enough for Andy to overcome Tony’s huge lead in season straight-up picks, however. He gained a couple games but still lost the season by a mile.

Now to the playoffs: No alternative picks here. Just some thoughts.

Saturday, January 15

Raiders at Bengals (-5.5, o/u 48)

Andy: Of all the weekend’s games, I might be most curious about this one. You’ve got two of the league’s dregs for much of the last two decades facing off in what could be one of the more entertaining games of the week. The last time these teams met in the playoffs, Bo Jackson dislocated his hip, ending his football career. Hopefully history doesn’t repeat itself. I see lots of scoring. Like way more than the total. I see Cincinnati winning. Their offense, especially at home, is usually in shootout mode. The Raiders will score plenty too, especially with TE Darren Waller back. I think I’d stay away from actually betting on a team, but if I had to, I’d say Bengals win, Raiders cover 34-31.

Tony: I’m not sure I see this one being that interesting, or competitive. I’m going with Vegas (the city) on this one, and saying Bengals win, Bengals cover–31-17.

Patriots at Bills (-3.5, o/u 43.5)

Andy: This one, on the other hand, could be the most boring game of the weekend, at least if you are into high-scoring games. Frigid cold expected. Two tough defenses matching up. Buffalo looked like a bit of a pretender the last time they met in Buffalo, as Bill Belichick took the air out of the ball and ran all day. My guess is Buffalo forces the issue this week, finding a way to force Belichick and Mac Jones to throw to win. I don’t think they can yet. Bills win this one comfortably while the score stays well below the total. Buffalo 20 New England 10.

Tony: Not likely to be exciting, but still could be very competitive. We haven’t seen Belichick in the playoffs without Tom Brady yet–he usually finds something unexpected to throw at the other team, and while Josh Allen is a solid quarterback, he has shown he’s beatable. Add in a suspect rushing attach, and I think it’s closer than the early game–but agree on the Under. Buffalo 17, New England 13.

Sunday, January 16

Eagles at Buccaneers (-8, o/u 45.5)

Andy: Many see the Steelers/Chiefs game as the biggest mismatch of the weekend. I think this one is. Tom Brady will be in playoff mode. The Bucs have a great run defense. Jalen Hurts has never played in a playoff game before and the Eagles need to run to win. It’s been a good season for Philadelphia. I don’t think even they expected this season would result in a playoff game. But the run ends dramatically here. Bucs 30 Eagles 7.

Tony: Yeah, no disagreement here, other than you might be giving the Eagles too much credit. Bucs 34, Eagles 3.

49ers at Cowboys (-3, o/u 51)

Andy: I’ve not been a big believer in Dallas this season. Occasionally both units show up. But they haven’t been consistent. Meanwhile, San Francisco just keeps plugging along with a solid defense and a ground-and-pound offense that utilizes 17 different running backs well. Now, if the score gets close to or exceeds the total, I think the 49ers are in trouble. I think that number is overinflated. 49ers 24 Cowboys 21.

Tony: I’m not a big believer in Dallas either–but I’m not sure the 49ers are the team to burst that bubble. The Cowboys defense is overrated, but I think they’ve got the weapons to slow down Deebo Samuel, and put the game in Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands. That’s not where the 49ers want it. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.

Steelers at Chiefs (-12.5, o/u 45.5)

Andy: Just because I think this isn’t the biggest mismatch of the weekend doesn’t mean I think it will be close. Ben Roethlisberger has had an admirable run, but he no longer has the ability to stretch the field. I don’t think he can dink-and-dunk the Steelers to a win over the rejuvenated opposition. Chiefs 30 Steelers 10.

Tony: There’s rumors that Juju Smith-Schuster is back for the game. Maybe he and Jackson Mahomes can have a contest to see which one’s social media dancing antics can enrage their opposition’s fanbase and possibly distract their team more. The difference is, Jackson Mahomes won’t be a distraction on the field, whereas Smith-Schuster just wouldn’t be any help on it. Chiefs 27, Steelers 6.

Monday, January 17

Cardinals at Rams (-4, 49)

Andy: The NFL’s latest blatant money grab is a Monday night playoff game. At least they put a compelling matchup together. I don’t know what to think in this one. Should be plenty of offense. L.A. finished playing a bit better than Arizona. They’re playing at home. Matt Stafford gets his first playoff W. Rams 30 Cardinals 23

Tony: This really might be the best matchup of the weekend. I think the biggest difference in this one might be how the Cardinals try (and fail) to stop Cooper Kupp. He had his worst outing of the season against the Cardinals on October 3rd (5 catches on 13 targets, 64 yards, zero TD). He hasn’t had a game under 92 yards receiving since, and only one game under 7 catches–and he lit the Cardinals up for 13-123-1 in December. I think Vegas hit the line on the nose–Rams 34, Cardinals 30.