NFL Network is spending all week breaking down last weekend’s draft. Analysts and experts have given out preliminary grades. But how will the picks each team made affect the fantasy football season?
Anthony Maggio, co-host of ESPN 1500‘s Fantasy Football Sunday, gave us his initial thoughts on who they should look for and who they should avoid heading into offseason training activities. Here’s what he had to say.
Zoneblitz: Last year Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris were among rookie contributors at running back. Which rookie running backs will be fantasy contributors in 2013?
Maggio: Let me start by saying how spoiled we all got with the 2012 NFL draft class. Recency bias will be costly for fantasy owners this season who reach for young talent. That doesn’t mean there aren’t fantasy helpers to be found for 2013, though there won’t be any at the quarterback position.
The two running backs I expect the most out of are Eddie Lacy, who was drafted in the second round by the Packers, and Le’Veon Bell, the big back from Michigan State who was selected by the Steelers.
Lacy’s already getting pushed to backup duty in the blogosphere by fourth-round pick Johnathan Franklin, but let’s pump the brakes on that for the time being. No, Franklin wouldn’t be the first running back to usurp a higher draft pick on the depth chart after training camp. I’m not saying it’s not possible. But Lacy was drafted in the second round for a reason. As of today, Lacy’s the guy I expect to get the bulk of them.
As for Bell, I love him as an NFL-style bruiser, which is why I think he’s the Steeler to own. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer both have their strong suits and could be viable fantasy options, but not behind Pittsburgh’s current offensive line. Whoever runs the ball for the Steelers will be doing more running over guys than sneaking through holes, and Bell’s the best fit in that role.
You didn’t ask for any long shots, but one guy I’ll be keeping my eye on is Stepfan Taylor, a fifth-round pick in Arizona. The backfield depth chart is packed, but no one’s been able to take that job and run with it in recent Cardinals history. Taylor could be the guy to finally break that trend, though it might be premature to say he’ll do it this year.
Zoneblitz: As a general rule, wide receivers take two or three years to develop, but there were a lot of interesting prospects in this year’s draft. Will any of these guys contribute for fantasy owners right away?
Maggio: At wide receiver, the obvious is Tavon Austin in St. Louis. But I’ll caution once again that this isn’t the 2012 draft class. Austin is likely to be the best rookie receiver in fantasy football this season, yet I see him as a WR3 at best. This isn’t a knock on Austin, it’s just that the Rams are still a work-in-progress offense. A high-upside work-in-progress no doubt, but a work-in-progress no less. That and they reside in the NFC West. Two games each against the Niners, Seahawks and Cardinals isn’t exactly a fantasy gamer’s dream scenario.
First round picks Cordarrelle Patterson (Vikings) and DeAndre Hopkins (Texans) were both solid picks, but San Diego third rounder Keenan Allen may have as good a shot or better at being usable in deeper fantasy leagues. Philip Rivers has been nothing special the last two years, but I trust him to produce fantasy helpers at receiver more that I trust Matt Schaub and especially more than I trust Christian Ponder.
Zoneblitz: Tight ends are getting used more than ever. There were only a few big names in the draft this year, but will any of them be useful for fantasy players?
Maggio: At tight end I’m a big Tyler Eifert fan, but his landing spot leaves a little to be desired. The Bengals already have Jermaine Gresham entrenched as their number one tight end, and I happen to be bullish on his talent. If Cincy decides to feature two tight end sets, then Eifert could be a top 15 value. Another rookie I like at the position is Jordan Reed. Fred Davis is the number one tight end if healthy, but he’s coming off an Achilles injury. If it turns into a nagging issue, I think Reed, a third-round pick, could easily step in as a security blanket for Robert Griffin III. He’s big, fast, dynamic, explosive, and all those other descriptive words us guys and gals in front of keyboards like to use. So keep an eye on Davis’ training camp progress and jump on Reed if the Achilles flares up.
Zoneblitz: What highly-touted rookies went to situations where their fantasy relevance will be muted?
Maggio: Eifert stands out the most for the reason stated above. Unless Gresham gets hurt, I think Eifert is simply a luxury for the Bengals.
Terrance Williams with the Cowboys is another. He’s got some work to do anyway to be a complete receiver, but Dez Bryant isn’t going anywhere, Miles Austin has a little tread left on his tires, and Jason Witten is still Tony Romo’s bff.
Zoneblitz: You’ve already mentioned that fantasy players should avoid rookie quarterbacks but will any of them have an impact even approaching the group from 2012?
Maggio: Do I look lazy if I simply say “no” and move on to the next question?
Zoneblitz: Who are two or three veteran players whose fantasy ranking improved because of the draft?
Maggio: Pick your quarterback or running back with a fancy new offensive lineman in front of him. Obviously no one’s going to be starting a fistfight over Blaine Gabbert (or Chad Henne), but guys like Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill will be more sought after in two quarterback leagues, and certainly any lead back with a new lineman selected in the top 19 picks has reason to smile. I stopped at 19 because Kyle Long was taken at number 20. As a Bears fan, I sincerely hope that Phil Emery is that much smarter than the rest of us.
Zoneblitz: Were the fantasy rankings of any veteran players hurt by the draft?
Maggio: I don’t think too many folks were going to rely on Kevin Kolb even as QB2 this year, but we now know how highly the Bills think of E.J. Manuel. Don’t be surprised to see him starting by November.
At the tight end position I could see Brent Celek going from perpetual waiver-wire-pickup-after-your-starter-suffers-injury guy to nothing-to-see-here thanks to Zach Ertz. I don’t think Ertz becomes a valuable fantasy guy, but I think he takes Celek off the field enough to keep him from fantasy consideration.
And since I haven’t made fun of the Jets yet — and that’s the cool thing to do, let’s just throw Mark Sanchez out there. Considering the mess Rex Ryan has on his hands and a presumed will to keep his job, Geno Smith will be under center sooner than later. But here’s hoping you weren’t counting on Sanchez to lead you to the fantasy promised land.
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