Alternative Picks: Week 11, 2021

We have a ballgame, folks. With huge wins two of the last three weeks, Andy has pulled within a single game in alternative picks. A month ago, it looked like he was going to get blown out of the water.

Will the rally continue? It’s not really been all that much just from Andy making better picks. Tony has fallen into a massive slump.

1) Andy – Buccaneers over Giants – Yep, two bad ones in a row for Tampa. Are we going to hear again that Tom Brady is done? I’ll believe it when I see it.
2) Tony – Titans over Texans – The Titans lost the best RB in the league, their WR2 has missed four games, and their second leading receiver in catches is a backup RB who has 43 touches on the year. So of course, they’re 8-2, and they get to play the Texans at home this week.
3) Tony – Cleveland over Detroit – The Browns have continued their up and down season, getting shellacked by the Patriots a week after dismantling an apparently solid Bengals team. That’s how bad Detroit is–their season highlight to date is not losing to Pittsburgh’s backup QB making an emergency start. Not beating him, just not losing.
4) Andy – Patriots over Falcons – This may be recency bias, but New England is starting to look pretty good under Mac Jones. Atlanta looked horrendous against Dallas. So … Falcons in an upset? Nah. New England keeps the dream alive.
5) Tony – Ravens over Bears – The Bears offense has been costing them games, but I think their defense may cost them this one–I just don’t know if they can keep up with Lamar Jackson.
6) Andy – 49ers over Jaguars – Jacksonville is playing a bit more competitively of late, but San Francisco looked great against the Rams Monday night. If they’ve figured something out, they’re far better than the JAGs.
7) Tony – Bills over Colts – The line (-7) surprises me a bit on this game, as the Colts are 5-5 and have played a lot better of late. But the Bills at home still have quite the advantage.
8) Andy – Packers over Vikings – This is as much to give myself a reason to have satisfaction if Minnesota does lose, but I just can’t see this Vikings defense slowing Aaron Rodgers down, even if he was bad last week coming off COVID.
9) Tony – Dolphins over Jets – Does anyone else think that the Jets starting Joe Flacco over Mike White is at least in part because of the popularity Mike White has seen since his first game, and being worried that they would have a Zach Wilson/Mike White controversy? Yeah, his last game wasn’t good…but the Bills will do that to a lot of guys. White looked great against Cincinnati and started ok against Indianapolis. The idea of going to Joe Flacco is like giving Norv Turner another shot at a head coaching job.
10) Andy – Cardinals over Seahawks – Hey, did you hear the Texans just offered Norv Turner their coaching position? … Ok, just kidding. Arizona hasn’t gotten killed even with Kyler Murray out and Seattle got shut out last week even with Russell Wilson back. This is the type of game that I’ve been getting wrong all season, but … that doesn’t mean the thinking is wrong.
11) Tony – Panthers over Football Team – A 34-10 beatdown by Carolina isn’t getting killed with Kyler Murray out? Speaking of the Panthers…we are firmly into the pick’ em area of games now. Cam Newton likely knows more than two touchdowns worth of the playbook now and should be able to carry the Panthers past the Football Team.
12) Andy – Chiefs over Cowboys – Kansas City hasn’t looked great but seemed to start to snap out of the funk last weekend against Las Vegas. Dallas is going to run away with the NFC East, but still must prove it can win more than occasionally outside the division. A win here would go a long way toward convincing people they are for real. Not that they care, but so far, I remain unconvinced.
13) Tony – Chargers over Steelers – Kind of surprised this game is still sitting here, although also surprised the line is Chargers -6.5. The Steelers didn’t look good against the Lions, but then again, the Chargers lost at home to the Vikings…
14) Andy – Bengals over Raiders – Las Vegas has been rough over the last couple weeks since the whole Ruggs situation went down. Cincinnati hasn’t been great, of late, but … ahh, who am I kidding. This is throwing darts just like most of the rest of my picks.
15) Tony – Eagles over Saints – The Eagles have scored under 20 points just once this season. Their big problem has been holding their opponents under 20–when they do, generally they win. The Saints haven’t looked terrible with Trevor Siemian leading the way, but they haven’t looked good either. Might come down to Alvin Kamara’s availability.

Andy and Tony both sucked at straight-up picks last week, a function of yet another weird week of upsets. Somewhere along the line there is usually a normalization after a couple weeks where Vegas is off. This season it hasn’t come yet.

And here are their picks for the week ahead – take it to Vegas … and Do the Opposite.