AFC West Preview

Andy: Denver has been dominant in the AFC West the last couple seasons, due largely to all-world performances by Peyton Manning. I think it’s legit to question whether he’s got enough left in him to carry the Broncos on another playoff run, but I also think it’s fair to question whether the rest of the division has what it needs to overtake them.

Kansas City’s defense is solid, but Alex Smith is a caretaker who fails miserably in any kind of downfield passing game. Philip Rivers is a better QB than Smith, but there are questions on the offensive line and the defense in San Diego. And Oakland, well, they may be a little better than the Raiders of the past decade-and-a-half, but there are still too many holes for them to start seriously talking playoffs.

Tony: Given your recent history, I’m shocked you blame anything in Kansas City on anything other than Andy Reid’s incompetence as a coach—and I’ll grant you, seemingly forgetting that you have Jamaal Charles on the team isn’t a great way to endear yourselves to Chiefs fans.

The concern on Peyton Manning in Denver is valid—there was something definitely “off” with him the second half of last season. And while fantasy pundits everywhere seem to love CJ Anderson (being one of the few supposed “Bellcow” backs), I just don’t know if I buy him producing for a full season the way he did at the end of last year.

The team that shockingly enough might be on the best trajectory in the West? The Oakland (soon to be Los Angeles…or San Diego…or St. Louis) Raiders. Derek Carr is already the best quarterback they’ve seen in Oakland since Rich Gannon (and might already be the best NFL quarterback in the Bay Area), and Khalil Mack was everything Oakland hoped for and more last year. Add in the flashes shown by Latavius Murray last season (if he can stay healthy) and probably the most exciting rookie of the 2015 class in Amari Cooper, and you’ve got a heck of a potential core. They might still be another year away from wrestling away the top spot in the division, but when they do, they might have some staying power, with the other three teams in the division aging rapidly at key positions (like quarterback) with no apparent heirs in waiting.

Andy: Well, having Alex Smith as QB was a decision of Reid’s, so indirectly I guess I am blaming him.

I agree on Oakland. The long-term looks good. The near-term looks better. But I still think they’re in the cellar this year.

Denver is *probably* still the best team in the division. But the offensive line is terrible. And I think there is a good chance that Manning should have hung it up after 2014.

If a team is going to sneak up and do something this year it’s probably San Diego. Rivers looked good last year even with Keenan Allen having a down second year. Allen started to rebound at the end of the season. I think he furthers that. I’m not as high on Melvin Gordon at RB as some – and I know you’re even lower on him than I am – but he is a breakaway threat who can’t be ignored, as long as he doesn’t dance. The offensive line isn’t great, but a sleeper cog to the offense who can sometimes help overcome that is Danny Woodhead, who is great on third down and out of the backfield. Stevie Johnson was a sneaky add at WR.

I don’t think the Chargers are a deep postseason threat, but if they can get anything at all from the defense, they could compete for the division.

Tony: I don’t think any AFC West teams are deep postseason threats, but I actually still think the main team to challenge the Broncos would be the Chiefs.

Gordon has lived up to my expectations of any Wisconsin RB product this preseason, Woodhead is nothing other than a 3rd down guy, and their offensive line is worse than ‘not great.’ Add in a defense that hasn’t impressed, and a quarterback who never has put it all together…

Meanwhile, Andy Reid may forget about Jamaal Charles once in a while, and Alex Smith may be nothing better than a game manager, but they’ve been somewhat effective the last couple of seasons despite the limitations, winning 20 games over that span. Their defense gave up an NFL second best 281 points last year, and they added a top WR this year in Jeremy Maclin, something they haven’t had since the days when Dwayne Bowe was actually relevant. Knile Davis could probably win a starting job with many teams, and if Travis Kelce can stay healthy, the Chiefs have more options on offense than they’ve had in years.

Andy: I’m not sure how you figure the Chiefs have more offensive options than they’ve had in years. Kelce was there last year. Charles and Davis were there last year. Maclin is an upgrade on Bowe, sure, but he’s not going to do much when the QB can’t get him the ball. It’s not that the Chiefs have never had wide receivers who can run down the field and catch the ball. They haven’t always been great, but they have had guys. The bigger problem is that Alex Smith looks like he’s throwing with the wrong hand after having too much to drink anytime he tries to get the ball more than about 12 yards downfield. He’s the worst downfield QB who has actually been a regular starter in this league since I can’t remember when. I don’t see the Chiefs as any better than the mediocre 9-7 team from last year.

And, oh yeah, your assertion that Danny Woodhead is “nothing more than a third-down back” is asinine. In 2013, Woodhead put up 1,034 yards rushing and receiving and scored eight TDs. He hasn’t had fewer than 501 total yards since his rookie year in 2009 with the Jets. Thinking the Chargers didn’t miss him big time in 2014 is foolish. Will he surpass 1,000 yards again? Probably not, if Gordon comes anywhere near what the Chargers want him to be. But he will contribute as more than just a standard third-down back.

At any rate, it’s probably moot. The Broncos will win the division and make another early exit from the playoffs. The window of opportunity in this division isn’t really open for any of these teams in 2015.

Predictions: