AFC South Preview

Tony: Remember that year in 2012, when the Indianapolis Colts were terrible? And the next year, when the Houston Texans still managed to beat Andrew Luck to win the division? Pepperidge Farm Remembers…

Those memories might have to keep Texans fans feeling good about their team for a while. I’m not honestly sure what Titans or Jaguars fans will hold on to.

The Colts ran away with the division in 2014, even with “just” an 11-5 record. Andrew Luck surpassed Aaron Rodgers as the best quarterback in the league in many people’s eyes, with 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns. Sure, he threw 16 picks—but with a collection of Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Dan Herron running the ball, I’m assuming he was often facing defenses that were playing with 11 or 12 defensive backs at a time.

And this year, he should have a running game in Frank Gore. Not to mention that his WR2 and WR3 spots have been upgraded from Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks to Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorset or Donte Moncrief. Gore and Johnson may not be in their primes, but even at the beginning of the tail end of their careers, they are significant offensive threats. If you want to play with 7 defensive backs, Gore will eat that up. If you want to shut down T.Y. Hilton, that should leave Johnson in single coverage—or Dorsett, or Coby Fleener or Dwayne Allen. Pick your poison.

Next up in the division? Oy.

If you want to go just on team quarterbacks…good luck. Running backs? Even better luck.

The Texans should have the edge, especially if Arian Foster can get back healthy sooner rather than later. They also still have JJ Watt, an unknown quantity in Jadeveon Clowney, and they added Vince Wilfork, who if he’s got anything left in the tank, will make their defensive line even more stout.

But with Brian Hoyer leading the ship…nothing is for sure.

Andy: I think the Colts just clinched the division. And they may have a bye wrapped up by the time I finish writing this paragraph.

In all seriousness, Indianapolis has question marks on defense that probably will challenge their efforts to move past where last season ended – as victims of Deflategate in the AFC Championship game (though, for the record, the Patriots would have won that game no matter how much air was in the balls).

Houston seems a notch ahead of the rest of the division overall. I maybe kind of see a glimmer of hope in Jacksonville, where I wouldn’t say they’re exactly stockpiling talent yet but where Blake Bortles has shown signs of figuring out what it takes to play QB in the NFL.

They also have a trio of WRs in Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns who are promising and a legit TE in Julius Thomas, though playing for Peyton Manning may have inflated his worth some over the last couple years.

The Titans … I guess reports are that Marcus Mariota is further ahead of where they were expecting him to be in learning to run a pro offense. But if that’s the best thing you can say about your team in the preseason, it’s going to be a long year. The best of the rest of the upside on that team consists of what, trading Zach Mettenberger to a team that needs a QB?

Tony: I love it when they actually spend time discussing how well a quarterback takes the snap from under center—almost as much as I loved it when they were tracking how many passes Mariota threw in practice without throwing an interception.

That might be indicative that the defense is just as bad in Tennessee as the offense likely will be—especially when they will end up relying on sophomore running backs from 2014 that so far have to be considered busts, in Bishop Sankey and Terrance West. Hard to see the Titans finishing anywhere other than last.

Much like Oakland in the AFC West, the Jaguars have added some interesting skill players, but may have more holes to plug on defense still. Additionally, they have to hope that rookie TJ Yeldon is a little more like Eddie Lacy, and a little less like Trent Richardson, the most recent highly drafted Alabama running backs.

The AFC South would seem to be one of the easier divisions to predict the order of—which probably means we’re way off.

Andy: I think this might be a case where we actually aren’t going to be way off. The hierarchy includes a team that’s on the brink of championship contention with the league’s best or second best QB, a team that has some talent but lacks a viable QB option and two teams hoping their young QB becomes an option while they add talent around him. One of those latter two is further along in gathering the talent to make a run in the future.

I think the Colts will be really interesting to watch. The one thing that will trip them up is the defense – and it could be a huge stumbling block. Luck likely will have to put up 30-40 points to win in many weeks – and unlike a lot of teams in that situation, he’s probably good enough to do so.

Tony: The Colts definitely will be interesting to watch—although, I do think their defense may improve some, the same way that the Cowboys improved their defense last year—by keeping it off the field. Gore and Johnson should help with that. Actually, their biggest Achilles heel may be their offensive line, which doesn’t have the reputation for opening holes that the holes that allowed DeMarco Murray to keep the Cowboys defense off the field—so the Colts will need Luck to keep the box free from 8-9 guys with the passing game.

Like you said, he’s one of the few that is probably good enough to do it.

Predictions: