AFC Playoff Prediction: 2016

AFC Playoff Prediction

While seeding is still in question, we know who will represent the AFC in the playoffs. But who is going to emerge as the Super Bowl team?

Quarterback injuries and other deficiencies will play a role. Here is who I suspect has the best shot, in reverse order.

Rank	Possible seed	Team	Explanation
6	4	Houston Texans	The Texans defense has been spectacular. But with teams like Pittsburgh and New England looming, Houston’s offense doesn’t have the game to keep up, even if they do get past the Wild Card round.
5	5, 6	Miami Dolphins	After a 1-4 start, Miami has a chance to finish 11-5. This unlikely run continued, even with the loss of Ryan Tannehill. Matt Moore is solid and the Dolphins are an up-and-coming team. Jay Ajayi also has emerged as an exciting player. But it just feels like this team is more solid than spectacular at this point. The Dolphins are probably a year away from emerging as a real competitor.
4	1, 2, 5	Oakland Raiders	I love the direction Oakland is going. The offense is great, the defense is young and talented, but still has a ways to go to catch up. Derek Carr’s injury dealt the Raiders a devastating blow, though backup Matt McGloin has a chance to earn himself some money with a solid run here. Much like the Dolphins, however, I think Oakland needs one more offseason and a healthy Carr to be a real threat for the Super Bowl.
3	3	Pittsburgh Steelers	Any team with Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a chance to make some noise in the post-season. But the defense is vulnerable. In a shootout the Steelers can keep up with anyone, but I suspect they’re a notch below elite.
2	2, 5	Kansas City Chiefs	The Chiefs are workmanlike on offense and solid, though not spectacular on defense, and they’re missing veteran leader Derrick Johnson. But you can’t change the fact that Kansas City is 9-2 in its last 11 regular season games and 21-4 in the last 25. Tyreek Hill has given Alex Smith a new dimension on offense. This probably is something short of a Super Bowl team, but on any given weekend, this team also could beat any opponent.
1	1, 2	New England Patriots	There simply remains a massive gulf between New England and any other team in the AFC. The Patriots have won 12 or more games seven seasons in a row. While this year’s version will likely produce the fewest offensive points during that seven-year stretch, the defense can give up 49 points and still be the best scoring defense during that timeframe. This is currently the sixth-best Patriots group in team history, with a strong likelihood of that stat improving next week. Bill Belichick has led some great teams and this might be among his best and most balanced.