Bet the Mortgage: Week 14, 2015 – Best Bets

This is getting dull.

We both, again, went 2-2, in week 13. Tony won a little. Andy lost a little. Between the two of us, we were up for the week … $261 pretend dollars.

There’s no drama at a .500 clip, not with a $10,000 hypothetical bankroll at play for each of us. It’s hard enough keeping this post interesting every week when there are real pretend dollars on the line… some would probably say we fail at even that.

At any rate, Andy’s minor loss kept him within spitting distance of breaking even. Tony’s meager win kept him from a hypothetical mobster pretending to break his legs. And we’re back at it again…

Here is where we stand:

With the end of the season in sight, there’s some antsy-ness setting in. They look like they might be ready to ramp things up a notch as we pass the final quarter pole.

Andy

I’m heading into what the hell mode. I’ve largely treaded water the last couple weeks. There are only a few left. Time to take some chances.

$1,500 – Arizona (-9, -105) vs Minnesota – I hate betting on Thursday games. They’re … unpredictable and often bad games. But the Vikings have been struggling lately, especially against good teams with multi-dimensions to their offense. And with four defensive starters missing the game – possibly the four most important starters on the defense – it’s hard for me to see them keeping this game close … which probably means I should bet on the Vikings, but, you know, logic.

$1,500 – Detroit (+1, -110) at St. Louis – The Lions have been playing well, save for the final 20 minutes or so of their Thursday night come-from-ahead loss to the Packers. The Rams have not. Barring a hangover from the game 10 days earlier, I think Detroit wins this one outright.

$1,500 – New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Over 50.5 – Now watch, this game will end up 26-24 … but Jameis Winston seems to be figuring things out a bit for the Bucs. And the defense in New Orleans has given up 41, 24, 47, 34, 49 in the last five games. I was worried about whether the Saints would score against Tampa, but then I realized they probably only need to get to 14 or 17 for this bet to have a solid chance to win.

$500 – Washington (+160, money line) at Chicago – I was not impressed with the Redskins on Monday night at all. But I was not impressed with Chicago against San Francisco on Sunday even more. The Bears lost for me last weekend. Maybe they’d be willing to do it again.

Tony

Another boring 2-2 week means I’m plugging along—not getting my kneecaps broken, but not making any progress towards breaking even. One way or the other, I suspect that changes this week.

$2,500 – Arizona (-7.5, Even) vs Minnesota – I’ve said repeatedly over the past few years that I don’t like betting on my home team—mainly because of games like this one, which are primed with the possibility of losing the bet AND the game. But it’s tough to like the Vikings’ chances in this one. They are playing on a short week, after a severe beat down. They haven’t actually beaten a truly good team this year. The offense looks dismal—Norv Turner is calling plays (running and passing) that the line can’t block for, and Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t have the ability (or the authority) to check into options that would be better. And perhaps most importantly, the defense will be without its three biggest names, their top defensive lineman (Linval Joseph), top linebacker (Anthony Barr), and top defensive back (Harrison Smith). Add in the fact that the Cardinals have a better than good offense, and this could be the lock of the year. Which means, of course, that the Cardinals will win by two.

$1,500 – Carolina (-8.5, +110) vs Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are playing truly bad football, and they’re facing possibly the best overall team in the NFL. And the Falcons are on the road. Thankfully, neither of my teams that rely on Julio Jones or Matt Ryan are playing in fantasy this week. Unfortunately, neither is my team that relies on Cam Newton.

$750 – San Diego at Kansas City: Under 45.5 (-110) – Normally I don’t take the under. But the Chargers are a special exception. If you take out the inexplicable 31 points they put up on the road in Jacksonville two weeks ago, they’ve scored 25 points in their last three games—19 of which were in their last game before the bye, back in week nine against the Bears. Three weeks ago, they faced these same Chiefs at home, and lost 33-3. The Chiefs will be content to come out, pound the ball for about 45 carries between Ware and West, and grind out a 27-7 victory.

$300 – Pittsburgh (+145 money line) at Cincinnati – One disadvantage of sending in bets earlier in the week is not as many money lines have been posted on the sites I check. And this week, my upset picks were slim, and not yet posted. So I’m going to go off my board, and pick an upset that I don’t have in the weekly picks—Pittsburgh over Cincinnati. Not a lot of money to risk, and not a super high payout, but what should be a good, tight game.