We’ve been doing this now for eight years, and we’ve seen a lot of changes to the Hall of Fame induction process—mostly around the coverage the event receives, as the league utilizes it’s NFL Network to add more hype to the election process.
Still, at the end of the day, the formula has remained largely consistent over the years—25 gets cut to 15, then to 10, and most of those 10 make their way back to the 10 the following year, with only one or two possibly missing out if there is a special first year eligible player. Generally speaking, someone knocked out in the 11-15 spots in one year won’t jump past someone to the final five—but they’re usually a good bet to make the final 10 themselves.
So who does that give us in 2017? Well, the final five eliminated in the 2016 election were QB Kurt Warner, T Joe Jacoby, RB Terrell Davis, S John Lynch, and coach Don Coryell. In my personal estimation, not the most awe inspiring class ever—but that’s what we’re looking at.
Following them, eliminated in the 11-15 spots were K Morten Andersen, S Steve Atwater, WR Terrell Owens, G Alan Faneca, and RB Edgerrin James—perhaps more star power in Owens and James, and probably a better offensive lineman in Faneca than Jacoby, but still facing a difficult road to jump into the top.
As for first year nominees, there are five names that would appear to stand out above the rest in RB LaDanian Tomlinson, DE Jason Taylor, S Brian Dawkins, WR Hines Ward and QB Donovan McNabb. Tomlinson and Taylor are probably the most likely to not only jump into the top 10, but even possibly make the finalist ballot. Dawkins has the profile (9/4) to the finalist round for sure, but with Lynch and Atwater already there, and a position that’s never gotten a lot of love, top 10 might be a stretch in his first year. Undoubtedly some Steeler fans will argue that Ward deserves first ballot consideration (he doesn’t), but he has a chance to make the finalist round, and an outside chance at the top 10. McNabb…well…
Finishing outside the top 15 in 2016 were some other interesting names, that could possibly push to make the rare leap past a player like Andersen or Atwater—names like Kevin Mawae, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Ty Law and of course Jimmy Johnson.
Our guess?
Finalists:
- Warner
- Jacoby
- Davis
- Lynch
- Coryell
- Atwater
- Faneca
- Andersen
- Owens
- James
- Tomlinson
- Taylor
- Dawkins
- Mawae
- Johnson
We see Andersen, Mawae, James, Atwater and Johnson getting dropped in the first five. From there…
Andy:
Unlike the last couple years, this is a harder class to predict. Do they go with Warner, the QB who has been waiting awhile? Do they go with Faneca, the guard and probably the best of the OL in the final 15? Or does he lose out to Jacoby, who was great and who played a more premium position and whose eligibility runs out? Do they take James or does Davis’ candidacy continue gaining momentum? Or does Tomlinson’s likely first-ballot induction mean both wait another year?
I think much like the years Cris Carter, Tim Brown and Andre Reed were all up for enshrinement, voters have almost no choice but to start clearing the slate of safeties one at a time. It’s a position that gets no love, but one where a number of good candidates sit waiting.
And does Terrell Owens get in or does his controversial career keep him out for another year in favor of a frankly lesser candidate than him, like Andersen, Johnson or Coryell, each of whom has had varying degrees of momentum over the last few years.
I personally think Tomlinson is a no brainer and Owens is nearly so. The rest? Who knows. I’ll go with this group:
- Tomlinson
- Owens
- Jacoby
- Taylor
- Dawkins
Why? I think Faneca will go in soon, but Jacoby is running out of time. The committee will vote him in to avoid cluttering up an already overflowing list of solid senior candidates.
Regarding safeties, I’m a big fan of Lynch and, particularly, Atwater. But voters to this point don’t seem enamored with either. Dawkins’ profile is even stronger. A safety almost has to get in. I’ll give the nod to him.
I’m not sure Taylor is a first-ballot lock, but I can’t see voters completely bucking the safety trend by inviting two. Taylor is pretty clearly the next strongest defensive candidate. Giving him the nod right away would be far from the most questionable thing that has happened in Canton.
Tony:
I agree 100% that this year is more difficult than many in recent memory–although in part I feel that’s because some of the log jams have been cleared, and we’re now looking at a final 15 that in my estimation includes a lot of guys more suited for the “Hall of Very Good.” Lynch? Always struck me as a more one dimensional player. Atwater was probably better, but still brought more to the table as a hitter more than a coverage guy. The NFL may quietly hope that neither make it, just so the inevitable questions (and highlights) of their biggest hits–some of which would undoubtedly be flagged today–just don’t come back up. Or maybe they’ll want to rip the band-aid off.
Jacoby is another that strikes me as good, not great–the whole Hogs offensive line seemed to be one of those unites that were great together, but does that mean they all deserve a spot in Canton?
And Morten Andersen…great kicker, played a really long time. But he is still a kicker, and there’s still only one of them in the Hall. I have no doubt that another will make it someday–just not sure Morten is that guy.
So who am I guessing will get in?
- Tomlinson
- Warner
- Lynch
- Davis
- Jacoby
My list might be a little bit contradictory to what I wrote above–but my list is who I am guessing will get in, not who I would vote for.
Tomlinson strikes me as a no-brainer as well–the other four all come from the final five of 2016. I ultimately thought that Warner would make it last year, although perhaps the voters didn’t want another QB on the stage with Brett Favre. Lynch and Jacoby I discussed above, but the voters clearly like them more than I do. And Davis…he might be the toughest argument on this list, but I sense that his support is growing.
Those that didn’t make it? Coryell…I could see them starting to try to avoid a coach every year, and as harsh as it sounds, there’s likely less urgency to get him in than some others.
I’ve waffled back and forth on Jason Taylor, but ultimately, his profile falls just a bit short of Michael Strahan, who had to wait a year–so Taylor does too. And Dawkins, well….I just don’t see a safety making it in his first year. I’d take Faneca over Jacoby, but at the end of the day, even the best guards in NFL History by my estimation (Randall McDaniel and Will Shields) had to wait 3-4 years to get in.
I apply that logic to Terrell Owens as well–ultimately, Owens had a better statistical career than Cris Carter, but was just as big (if not a bigger) pain to deal with–as a teammate, in the press, as a coach, and as an owner. They made Carter–who everyone knew was a Hall of Famer–wait six years to get in. Ultimately, right or wrong, they will likely make Owens wait a bit longer as well.
What do you think? I realize a lot of comments have already been left in the 2016 Announcement Thread, but let us know in the comments what you think of our logic, our choices, and where we missed. Also, given the spate of retirements this off-season, we will have several more threads on worthiness of individuals coming up soon.
I see the willingness and support of the HOF voters to move Lynch into the final 10 as their first effort and recognition to address the logjam at Safety, thinking that they will elect him in 2017 even though Dawkins will appear on the ballot. In my view LT is the only 1st ballot selection, although Taylor and Dawkins will do well (do not think all 3 will be 1st time selections). Lynch is also the most qualified (and only) returning final 10 from 2016 representing defense – another strong positive for his election.
Along with LT and Lynch, from the post 2016 public and media discussions, appears that Warner, Jacoby, and perhaps Davis, are seen as next most deserving. So that gets to at least four (LT, Lynch, Warner, Jacoby), with Jacoby also benefiting from end time as a modern candidate. The fifth and final slot could go a few ways with Davis perhaps the strongest of the returning candidate (but another RB?), Coryell (with seeming increasing media and public push for me), and then there is TO.
I know there has been considerable debate about TO not getting elected this year, much driven by him, but for me the voters not even advancing TO to the final 10 was very revealing about the split views by the voters and I would not surprise that he waits at least another year (can you image 2018 ballot with Moss and TO!!!, the fun that would be!). But also possible his supporters among the votes, who are there and strong vocal, could sway his election for 2017 – and by doing so avoid the 2018 Moss-TO debate.
But I am going to go on a limb and speculate that the TO negatively stops him for another year, and not seeing any other strong likely 1st time, returning or surprise out of the semi-finalists jump into election and go with:
LT
Lynch
Warner
Jacoby
Coryell
and if pressed for it:
Robert Brazile (senior)* not my choice, which would be Howley, but who I think the seniors committee will nominate
Young, Brandt (contributors), with Beathard and Paul Tagliabue as other possibilities.
Paul I agree with what you said. I think LT is for sure a lock next year. Warner and Jacoby have the most support for returning candidates. I think Lynch will also get in next year not sure I agree with that over Taylor, Dawkins etc. Im not sure where they go with the 5th spot. i have heard some voters say that its going to be difficult for Coryell to cross the finish line. I think they go with him or Davis but I might lean towards Davis slightly since another coach was elected in 2016. I think they go with Beathard and Brandt as Contributors with George Young as a possiblity. I want Jerry Kramer, Johnny Robinson or Chuck Howley to be the Senior Nominee but I think they choose Brazile they are big on all decade players and Gosselin has brought up that the Titans, Jets and Colts have never had a senior nominee and the Titans would be taken care of with Brazile. I could also see them going with Kenny Easley.
Paul if you had to guess who could you see the Senior Committee choosing from 15 finalists?
I like the list of 15 finalists.
As to who gets elected, I can only see Tomlinson as a 1st ballot lock. Dawkins and Taylor are certainly worthy but can see them waiting maybe 3 years or so. The only safety who’ll be first ballot from this generation imo will be Ed Reed.
Warner and Jacoby seem to have a lot of momentum and I expect both to be part of the 2017 Class. I think a 4th spot comes down to TO (who is clearly the best WR remaining) or Terrell Davis. The presence of Tomlinson might hurt Davis’ chances so perhaps 2018 might offer a better chance with Edge waiting until 2019-20.
This seems like a very offense heavy class so far so I’d expect at least one defensive player elected to provide balance. Dawkins, Lynch and Atwater might all cancel each other out unless voters can decide on an order to push through their candidacy.
Also, with Greene, Haley and Strahan all elected in recent years, Taylor could sneak in as the path at DE/OLB appears much less congested.
My final choice as to who I think they’ll elect:
Tomlinson
Warner
Jacoby
TO or TD (toss a coin)
A safety (Probably Lynch though I thought Dawkins was better).
Rob the early buzz seems to be Robert Brazile as the 2017 senior candidate, but really hard to predict as the five members of the seniors committee rotates each year so you end up with different views and opinions among such a small group of voters who select the finalist, could go many different ways and year to year trends in terms of favorites or support hard to follow.
If it’s Robert good pick. 5/7/70s DROY. Reminds me a little of Zach Thomas’ resume, although Robert was used more as a pass rusher. What is everyone’s feeling about when Zach makes the semis at least?
Zach deserves to make the semi-finalist list and start process for consideration of election.
After the current rules end for annually alternating 2/1 seniors and contributors, what would people feel about going forward with one contributor (coaches included), 1 senior and 1 memorial (for those deserving seniors passed way), each year? Keeping with the current 5 modern candidates as well.
Once this alternating period ends, I think they should combine Seniors and Contributors into one pool and offer 3 spots per year with the 5 modern era.
Interesting idea, boknows — and that could work well if it’s filled mostly with Seniors, providing three Seniors much of the time. But if they keep nominating a bunch of Contributors, maybe not so much. My preference is to keep the two Senior slots and combine coaches and Contributors into a single additional slot. Once they induct the immediately deserving GM types as well as Sabol and McNally, combining what’s left over with coaches (head and assistant) should provide a reasonable trickle of candidates for a while.
It is looking like the finalists are as Andy and Tony said:
Warner
Jacoby
Davis
Lynch
Coryell
Atwater
Faneca
Andersen
Owens
James
Tomlinson
Taylor
Dawkins
Mawae
Johnson
Perhaps one of the deepest Finalists group ever?
Interesting Idea Paul I think the Hall of Fame should consider your proposal. I think in less than 10 years would get a lot of the Pre-Super Bowl Era Seniors in the Hall of Fame.
With the selection today of the Class of 2016 for the Basketball HOF, any thoughts as to their process and outcomes compared to PFHOF? Committee of 24 selecting 10 members that includes NBA and WNBA, college and international game, and coaches, owners and officials.
“Brazile they are big on all decade players and Gosselin has brought up that the Titans, Jets and Colts have never had a senior nominee and the Titans would be taken care of with Brazile.”
Uh, what? First, Brazile didn’t play for the Titans. He played for the Oilers. Second, the Oilers just had Curley Culp a couple years ago. Yes, Culp spent his first few seasons with the Chiefs and the end of his career with the Lions, but most of his prime was spent with the Oilers. I would hope Gosselin didn’t say something that clueless.
I like Basketball HOF’s # of slots, PFHOF should definitely add two more. It would help out players from being thrown in the Senior Nominee, when they deserved to be in on modern era ballot. We are facing a very deep ballot as each year comes around.
Here is what Rick Gosselin said in his chat today about Robert Brazile chance in 2017 “Good. He’s been in the discussions of late. He was the prototype for the 3-4 weakside linebacker before Lawrence Taylor arrived in the NFL. Seven Pro Bowls in 10 seasons makes a strong argument for Brazile.” He also had this to say about coaches in contributor category’s ” That’s what a number of us are pushing for. That way it becomes cut & dried. Guys who actually played the game would be in one basket. Guys who didn’t (coaches, owners, general managers, commissioners) would be in another. That would give deserving coaches a fairer chance of getting in. I always thought there was a place in the HOF for general managers who built championship teams. But until we came up with a contributor category, none of those men could get in. Now there are two — Ron Wolf & Bill Polian.”
Here is what Jerry Kramer’s daughter posted on her dad facebook page to get him into the Hall of Fame ” I just talked to Rick Gosselin (Senior Select Committee) a couple of days ago. Rick thought Jerry should have been nominated last year as opposed to Dick Stanfel, who ended up getting inducted along with Ken Stabler as the two senior nominees. Believe me, Jerry does have support. The process for the PFHOF is flawed. That goes without question. This year, there will be just one senior nominee, while there will be two contributor nominees. Gosselin was against that tweak by the PFHOF a couple of years ago and has proposed a number of remedies to correct the issues that keep Jerry and many others out of the Hall. For example, there are 91 players who were named All-Decade in the NFL that have not made it into the PFHOF yet. Not only was Jerry All-Decade, he was also on the NFL 50th Anniversary team. No. 64 is also the only player on that 50th first-team not in the PFHOF. I have written an article about Jerry for Talk of Fame radio, which is the site which is run by Gosselin, Ron Borges and Clark Judge (all voters for the PFHOF). The article should appear sometime in the near future. I know Gosselin and Borges are big backers of Jerry on the seniors committee, so I’m going to try and contact the seven other members of the committee to gauge their support for No. 64. Bottom line, the crusade for Jerry and his rightful place in the PFHOF will continue.”
Winston Hill, member of the Jets’ 1969 Super Bowl victory, dies at 74
Very sad day yesterday in Jets World. He deserves to be in the HOF. Jets are underrepresented,
First off, I agree that Winston Hill should have been in the HOF years ago. Sadly he will probably get in one day and isn’t around to enjoy it.
Second. Brazille would be a worthy senior nominee, but once again, not before Kramer, Howley or J. Robinson. I put him in the same category as Lester Hayes and Kenny Anderson. Guys that should have been HOF’s years ago but due to various reasons and log jams did not get in during their times on the ballots.
Third. I like the idea of putting coach’s in the contributors category. That will free up some space for the players and give the coach’s a better chance to get in before they are long gone. To me that, is the only chance a guy like Bill Cowher or Dick Vermeil ever get in.
On that last note, I would vote in Gil Brandt as this year’s contributor for sure and I am split between George Young and Art McNally as the other. I also now would reconsider Paul Tagliabue. Every day that Roger Goodell is the head of the NFL, it makes Tagliabue look like a better candidate.
Lastly, I would Make my final five selection for the class of 2017 in this order.
1) LaDanian Tomlinson
2) Terrell Owens
3) Joe Jacoby
4) Kurt Warner
5) Steve Atwater
But that would probably never happen as I think Atwater and Owens will be passed over in favor of Lynch and Taylor or T. Davis.
Is it fair to say Robert Brazile will be the Senior Nominee for the 2017 Class?
BillyW, I’d put Bobby Beathard and Steve Sabol in the Contributor mix along with the folks you mentioned. And I really don’t think one can predict the Senior nominees with any certainty.
Picking the Senior Nominee is like winning Pick 3 (but it’s not as hard. Using it more as a metaphor). I think Jerry Kramer and Johnny Robinson may never be up again for nomination until they pass. It’s pretty sad.
I was just thinking about the fact that Karl Mecklenburg, Joe Jacoby, Albert Lewis, Darren Woodson and Sam Mills may not get in the HOF over the next couple of years. That is going to really muddle up the seniors pool. That doesn’t even count recent seniors like Bob Kuechenburg,, Cliff Harris, Joe Klecko and Donnie Shell.
It may become increasingly difficult to see players from the sixties and seventies that have been overlooked to get their shot at a seniors pool nomination.
I agree as soon as more players from 1990s enter the seniors pool that chances for pre 1970 candidates are going to great very poor.
Seems to be some buzz around Robert Brazile as the Senior Nominee for the 2017 Class, but with only 5 committee members making the selection (and not knowing who those five are since they rotate each year), hard to say what voices will be heard loudest in the room to push for a selection. At this point you could probably toss up 5-8 names and anyone could be elected, hard to say if any rankings or priorities exist when the voters change each year.
BillyW, of the folks you listed, the closest to the Senior drop off is Mecklenburg. Am expecting Jacoby to be elected next year since he not only made the finals but also the first cut to 10 finalists last time — and with his last eligible year being 2018, am thinking he makes it in easily. Meck’s last eligible year is 2019, and he needs to be a finalist ASAP if he has any shot — same with Mike Kenn. Mills (2022), Lewis (2023), and Woodson (2029) actually have several years of regular eligibility left to varying degrees, but the sooner they reach finalist stage, the better their chances are.
For some reason I was thinking that Woodson had less time. Even so, with Dawkins, Lynch and Atwater still on the ballot, it is going to be tough for him. Not to mention Troy Polomaleu will be on the ballot in the next couple of years. I thought Woodson was a HOFamer when he was playing but those odds seem long now.
As soon as I hit send, it struck me that Ed Reed will be on the ballot soon as well.
I think the PFHOF voters are going to start addressing the Safety position, electing Lynch in 2017 soon followed by Atwater or Dawkins in 2018. Failing to do so is really going to cause a major logjam at the position in the the near future. I can foresee five Safeties potentially elected in the next decade.
I was thinking about Brazille possibly being the Senior candidate, and it is not like I think he shouldn’t be in the HOF, but a contemporary of his in Randy Gradishar hasn’t been mentioned nearly enough. I’m not sure who is the Denver area representative is over the years, but who ever it was or is, has not done a great job pushing Broncos players that should have been Hall of Famers by now. I’m thinking specifically of Terrell Davis, Rod Smith, Neil Smith and Karl Mecklinburg.
Regardless of the Denver representative, the larger issue here is that Terrell Davis, Rod Smith, Neil Smith and Karl Mecklinburg all have weaknesses in terms of their PFHOF voters that can be used against them in arguments for their election to the PFHOF. And in terms of the PFHOF voting often the process leads to evidence against rather than for election. TD is on his way and will get elected soon, not so sure Rod Smith has a very good case, Neil Smith is possible, and Mecklinburg has had support by may need to wait via the seniors route (Gradishar has a strong case and on path for future election)
And Darren Sharper, if not for his horrific actions off the field, would add even more to the Safety logjam. Ed Reed is a first ballot HOFer and Brian Dawkins could be, but definitely 2nd-3rd ballot. So he won’t hurt Woodson’s chances that much. Troy Polamalu is interesting. For sure a HOFer. I am thinking he gets in on his 3-5th ballot due to how deep the ballot is getting. Zach Thomas hasn’t even been named semi finalist with a resume of 5/7/00s.
When Zach Thomas was playing, he seemed like a surefire HOFamer. Anytime one of the dolphins games was on prime-time (which wasn’t often during his playing days) that was a name you heard throughout the whole broadcast. Similar to Brian Urlacher for the Bears. It seems as though since Thomas retired, he has been easily forgotten. It makes you wonder if Urlacher will fall under the same fate. I know it shouldn’t make a difference but the fact that Zach has such a common name like Thomas as opposed to one like Urlacher or Butkus makes it easier to forget how good a player he was.
It also makes me think of Richmond Webb. I thought he as a dominating Tackle for the Dolphins in the 90’s but he doesn’t even get on the preliminary list any longer.
I don’t think Brian Urlacher is going to suffer the same fate as Zach Thomas by the voters. I actually think Lance Briggs is the Chicago Bears Player is going to suffer the fate as Zach Thomas.
Urlacher to me always overlooked Lance Briggs since the media always gave Brian more attention. What also helped was Urlacher went to the Super Bowl once and went to the NFC Championship game 2 times.
What happened to Zach Thomas is a couple things. I think history wasn’t kind to him because his team Jason Taylor did win a Defensive Players of the year award.
The 2nd problem is the Dolphins never got the Super Bowl when Zach Thomas was there. Zach was on some defenses that carried the Dolphins to Winning records, but were outmatched in the playoffs.
Lance Briggs will be an interesting case. He was a big hitter and was almost never out of position. He reminded ma a lot of Darryl Talley of those old Bills teams and Wilbur Marshall of the Bears and Redskins. And neither of those two even sniffed the HOF. Briggs was a little bigger than those guys but he moved as well as them.
But until you mentioned him, I had totally forgotten about him. Does anyone know what year he will show up on the ballot?
Lance Briggs should be on the Ballot in 2019
Here is what Gosselin said in his chat today ” Every player in the senior pool is a longshot. Every NFL team has 2-3-4 players it believes has been unjustly passed over by the process. That’s about 70-80 quality candidates right there. In the 44 year history of the senior committee, the Jets, Colts and Chargers have never had a nominee. The Cowboys have had three in the last 12 years. All three remain in the hopper and in discussion, I just can pinpoint if and when their numbers will come up.”
Rob, thanks for posting. Found Rick’s comment (he was answering a question about the chances of Howley, Pearson, or Harris as Senior finalists). It’s true that the Jets, Colts, and Chargers have never had a Senior nominee best I can tell. Best choices from the Jets would arguably be Winston Hill, Larry Grantham, Mark Gastineau, or Joe Klecko. Best Colt option is probably Bobby Boyd. Best Charger options are probably Walt Sweeney or Earl Faison.
As a Jets fan, get Joe Klecko in first.
Or one could simply believe that the most qualified senior candidate should,be selected rather than a process based on making sure every team has representation. Perhaps the reason some teams have yet to have a senior candidates is simply because other candidates were more worthy?
I’m with Paul on that post. Why should there be equality with who gets nominated and from what team. Only the individuals themselves should be considerd. I have no problem with someone like Joe Klecko or Winston Hill being nominated but that is because of the type of player they were, not because of the team they played for. If Earl Faison was nominated over Jerry Kramer or Chuck Howley, that is kind of outrageous.
Here is what Clark Judge had to say about some HOF Candidates, ” Atwater has a shot, but a two-fold problem: 1) Lynch plays the same position and he made final 10 this year; Atwater did not and 2) Ed Reed and Polamalu are coming along soon, making it a crowd at safety — a position that typically can’t break through with the Hall (only seven pure safeties in Canton). As for Gradishar … don’t ask me why he’s not in. Has everything you want. Don’t understand it.” Here is another comment ” I understand about Atwater. That he made it as a finalist this year was encouraging. It’s been a long wait. Now he must move into top 10 to have realistic shot at getting in. But he has a shot. As I said, the competition is going to grow with each year, and I almost forgot about Brian Dawkins, who is up in 2017. Gradishar I’m not so sure about. It’s up the senior committee to rescue him, and it takes forever to get out from under a pile of deserving candidates that, somehow, have been either neglected or forgotten.” Here is a third comment ” I’m not confident about anyone but Bailey. Gradishar is the guy I don’t get. How is he still on the outside looking in? Atwater will have a tough time because it’s about to get crowded at safety (Reed and Polamalu will be coming up and Lynch already ahead of him in line) and safety a position the Hall for some reason doesn’t warm up to. Do I think he belongs? Absolutely. But not confident he makes it.”
As I have posted before, Lynch in the final ten this year is real telling for me, as without large number of other defensive players contending (and recent push by PFHOF voters to elect more defense) puts him in excellent position for election in 2017 and first step in getting over the issue of lack of Safeties in the PFHOF.
My guess is that Steven Jackson is finally done. I don’t see him signing onto another contender this year like he did last year with the Patriots. He wasn’t quite as high profile as Marshawn Lynch has been in his career but what chance to you think he and Lynch have of making the HOF? Will they be looked upon favorably or get the same treatment that Corey Dillon and Ottis Anderson have received?
I don’t think Marshawn will make it, but wouldn’t mind if he made it eventually. And Steven Jackson is borderline in my book as far as if I think he will get in, which I am in support of. Great careers. But, how could you justify leaving out Shaun Alexander if you induct Jackson and Marshawn? Shaun was league MVP , had a then record 28 total TDs in a single season , he scored 112 total TDs for a career,a rushing title, and was named to 2000s All Decade Team.
You are exactly right about Shaun Alexander. It would be tough to see Jackson or Lynch in the HOF and Alexander without even a sniff. Alexander had a short careet just like Terrell Davis but he did not get the Super Bowl exposure that T. Davis did. It goes to show you that exposure actually plays a role in how you feel about a HOF career.
Lets be perfectly honest. Kurt Warner had some great seasons but not exactly a great career. You could actually compare his numbers to Ken O’Brien or even Neil Lomax and neither of those two have ever been confuse with HOFamer. What they don’t have is the SB exposure and stage of the Super Bowl.
Don’t get me wrong I’m all for Warner getting into the HOF because of his impact on two Super Bowl contenders but if you went by pure numbers, you might put him in the Drew Bledsoe, Jim Hart and Dave Krieig category.
Warner is a two time NFL MVP and SB MVP with 3 SBs and a SB win. Numbers aside those place him above Anderson and many other QBs with equal or higher career passing numbers and why he is getting into the PFHOF soon..
Shaun Alexander has a long shot chance at PFHOF, Jackson and Marshawn simply lack sustained career success and numbers, including post season, to ever get elected.
I don’t see that Marshawn Lynch has any better HoF argument than RBs such as Clinton Portis, Tiki Barber, or Jamal Lewis and will be very surprised if he’s elected. Steven Jackson probably isn’t getting in either — as a compiler type RB, you need to reach 12,000 yards, and he likely will fall just short and be seen about as deserving as Fred Taylor. Getting past 12K made the difference for Jerome Bettis and will for Edgerrin James. And it likely will make the difference for Frank Gore, who as a bonus doesn’t look like he’s done yet.
Kurt Warner actually does pretty well in both Kiran Rasaretnam’s rankings (15, 14, N/A for best 4, 7, 10) and Chase Stuart’s rankings (36th), within reasonable HoF limits though towards the lower end. He also went to three SBs, winning one — and arguably has more narrative than any HoF likely QB outside of Joe Namath. He’s a very reasonable second-tier level HoF choice.
If there is one surprise candidate of getting in the top 10 of the voting like Joe Jacoby did this year who would that candidate be?
The only three players likely to be elected (eventually or not) of the incoming group are LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Dawkins, and Jason Taylor. Am thinking the Class of 2017 will be Tomlinson, Kurt Warner, John Lynch, Joe Jacoby, and Terrell Davis. That leaves Steve Atwater, Terrell Owens, Edgerrin James, Morton Andersen, Don Coryell, and Alan Faneca from the holdovers with Dawkins and Taylor probably joining them. My guess is that the 6-10 guys will be Atwater, Owens, Faneca, Coryell, and Andersen. That means Dawkins, Taylor, James and two others will be the first cuts, and those last two may come from folks like Jimmy Johnson, Karl Mecklenburg, Mike Kenn, Roger Craig, Kevin Mawae, Ty Law, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, or Zach Thomas. Hope it’s Mecklenburg and Kenn, myself. The most likely change from this am guessing would be Coryell elected instead of Davis and Andersen not making the top 10. There’s always a chance Mecklenburg or Kenn might make a surprise run into the top 10 if they reach finalist stage, kind of like Jacoby did last year. Anyway, that’s my best guess.
My wildcard for election in 2017 would be Coryell as I sense movement to get him elected starting with his first jump into the final ten in 2016. I do not foresee any major surprises among the final 10 .
Paul I assuming this is your top 10 for 2017: Tomlinson, Warner, Jacoby, Davis, Lynch, Coryell, Owens, Faneca, Taylor and Atwater or Dawkins?
Steve Atwater
Don Coryell
Terrell Davis
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
John Lynch
Terrell Owens
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jason Taylor
Kurt Warner
I’d be happy with these players :) :
Tomlinson
Lynch
Dillon
Ward
Clayton
Kramer
Robinson
State Your Case on Jim Tyrer by Ron Borges http://www.talkoffamenetwork.com/tyrer-hall-of-famer-murderous-tragedy/
Dillen? Clayton?? Only way those two are ever getting is if they buy tickets!
I actually thought Dillon did enough on the field to get in, but I don’t ever see it happening. I assume he is talking about Mark Clayton? He was an exceptional receiver during the Marino years, but he falls into that Gary Clark, Stanley Morgan, Henry Ellard section of receivers who were very talented but probably just a smidge under HOF caliber.
Nothing outstanding or remarkable about Dillon’s 4 pro bowl 10,000 yard rushing career, very good but way short of HOF standard for RBs from his era, same could be said for Clayton among many very good WR from 80s with similar career numbers but no outstanding achievements worthy of election. They both fall way down the list of other deserving players from their era and recent eras still waiting election including all pro and all decade players
Agreed, Corey Dillon is essentially a compiler type back who didn’t amass enough yards — kind of like Fred Taylor or Warrick Dunn — very good player but not quite good enough for the HoF. Mark Clayton is another very good WR who doesn’t have a HoF case either, kind of like his teammate Mark Duper.
Bachslunch- I’m ok with Corey Dillon not being a Hofamer, but I don’t quite understand what you mean by “compiler” when it comes to the RB position. To me, compiling at that position is what gets you into the HOF. The days of a Paul Hornung or Doak Walker or even an Ollie Matson and Leroy Kelly getting into the HOF are long gone. You could make the argument that Dillon was a more dangerous back than Jerome Bettis. Bettis at least played for some very good teams. Dillon was the lone offensive threat until he got to the Patriots. Bettis and Dillon both won one Super Bowl. And as far as elite seasons go, Dillon matches up with Bettis very well. Do not go by Pro Bowls. Bettis made some PB’s based on name recognition later in his career.
I’m not saying Dillon is a HPFamer. I’m just saying Bettis walked right in after a year or two (once he was eligible) without much debate and Dillon will never get a sniff.
Bettis is 6th all time in rushing yards, anyone that high on that list is getting into PFHOF, Dillon is 20th which is the reason he is not in.
And Bettis was not elected until his 5th year of eligibility, certainly did not just walk in there as there was clearly plenty of debate
Bettis had 800 more carries than Dillon did. If Dillon had those same amount of carries at his average, he would be the 4th leading rusher of all-time. Bettis avg. 3.9 yards per carry. I believe Dillon was 4.3. Which is more in line with HOF than Bettis. Only Riggins and Little and Bettis have been enshrined with less than 4.o yds per carry.
BillyW: past patterns suggest that if you’re a compiler type back who gets beyond the 12,000 yard threshold (Curtis Martin, Jerome Bettis), you’re in. If not (Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, Eddie George), you don’t. By the way, that bodes well for Frank Gore but not Steven Jackson.
“Bettis had 800 more carries than Dillon did. If Dillon had those same amount of carries at his average, he would be the 4th leading rusher of all-time.”
Yes he would, but that is based on speculation and projections, which we could easily do for many on the bubble potential PFHOFers. Interesting debate I suppose, but essentially meaningless to the actual discussion of candidates.
If Tomlinson wasn’t a first ballot HOF I’d say Edgerrin James would be getting in this year… But I think he’ll have to wait another year. He’s definitely a HOFer. He’s ahead of more than 20 others that are in the HOF in rushing yards and TD’s. Notably legends like Marcus Allen, Thurman Thomas, Earl Campbell, Franco Harris, and OJ… Only 66 yards behind the G.O.A.T. Jim Brown and he missed 10 games in 2001 due to blowing out his knee… when he came back from injury he had five more seasons of 1100 yards or more, including 2 of more than 1500 yards. He also has 91 career TD’s which is a clear HOF level of production. Again, if not for Tomilnson’s first ballot, Edge would be in… of course nothing against putting in 2 running backs in the same class.
RIP Buddy Ryan. He should be in the HOF as a contributor.
Very quotable and had a couple of years of being a great defensive coordinator, but his years as a head coach and his inability to be able to work with anyone that wasn’t one of his defensive players, will keep him out of the hall of fame. That being said, RIP Buddy.
Are there any members of the PHOF elected solely on the basis of their contributions as an assistant coach? I know with the new contributors category they are eligible and some names mentioned as possible candidates, but any one already in PFHOF?
No question Buddy Ryan would have a decent HoF argument if they start considering assistant coaches. So would Clark Shaughnessy, Richie Petitbone, Tom Moore, and Bill Arnsparger. No idea if they will, though.
Only if they move the coaches into the contributors category will Assistant Coaches ever have a chance and even then they are probably fall behind coaches, GMs, and scouts in terms of consideration.
Kenny Easley was so much better than Atwater or Lynch. It’s not even close. Teams specifically game planned around Easley and his all-around abilities because they were scared of him. He was just as good of a hitter as Atwater/Lynch but he was equally as good in coverage as Lynch/Atwater were at hitting, too. Lynch and Atwater were generally liabilities in coverage. Can you imagine either of them covering Kellen Winslow in his prime like Easley did (Winslow never found the end zone against Easley and that was with them spending years in the same division facing each other). That’s why he is a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year. History has forgotten him and that’s sad if they truly want to have the best players in the HOF.
Just read this thread and saw the quotes from Gosselin a couple of months ago. Those Cowboys needed to be nominated through the senior route because they weren’t inducted through the modern era route like they should have been years earlier. Unfortunately this reinforces what I’ve been saying for years about Gosselin feeling like he can rest on his supposed laurels and leave deserving Cowboys at the back of the queue. The destructive legacy of the long running anti-Cowboys bias won’t be put behind us until guys like Howley, Harris, and Pearson are in. Heck, at the very least let’s get Howley in ASAP.
And Gosselin also drives me crazy by talking up other less known and less qualified players from many other teams (and of course often Detroit) while clearly ignoring all decade players in Harris and Pearson and one of the top candidates already with support from voters and in the discussion year after year in Howley.
just one example of what drives me crazy abour Gosselin advocating for certain players:
http://www.talkoffamenetwork.com/11888-2/
Yeah, me too. As a history guy I don’t mind covering obscure guys to educate fans, but Gosselin speaks with more passion and puts more effort into arguing on behalf of lots of players like that than I’ve ever seen him do for Howley. Something’s wrong there.
i have to agree with paul and rasputin on everything
Re Rick Gosselin, I can see him writing up essays about Hall of the Very Good types like Harlon Hill. The Talk of Fame Network has set itself a goal of presenting one player at that level or better each week, and you’re bound to touch on just very good players a good bit. My guess is that they’re actually building traffic for the site this way and have no real delusions about several such folks. But will agree that his silence on Chuck Howley is puzzling — Rasputin, noticed that he didn’t reply to your questions about him. Maybe for some utterly unfathomable reason he really doesn’t believe Howley belongs in. Myself, I’d think he should own up to what he thinks on the subject, for better or worse. I see State Your Case articles for Drew Pearson and Cliff Harris, both of whom belong in, though I don’t remember who the authors were.
You hit the nail on the head. Yes, if you focus on one player a week, you’re going to run into some weeks where a borderline guy isn’t as legit as a guy like Howley. What do some of you expect them to do… write articles on Howley five weeks in a row? That’s not the purpose on what they do.
Maybe Gosselin does advocate for Howley, but he understands that enough others will not support the cause and he chooses to advocate for others who others may be more likely to agree with. We don’t know they thought process behind it all.
Yes. There are guys who have legit claims to Canton and now there only hope is the seniors committee. For only having two senior spots per year, they have many more than that in deserving players.
For example, a guy like Cliff Harris has a solid case to be in Canton. However, he’s not the best safety candidate on the seniors committee. Guys like Johnny Robinson and Kenny Easley were better players. The Hall of Fame doesn’t like safeties and now, if you’re Harris, there are others who had better individual careers in front of you… you’re chances aren’t good, even though you definitely deserve to be in. It’s unfortunate, really. However, it just reinforces what an exclusive club it is.
I think you missed some of our key points, Bob. Gosselin hasn’t really written about Howley at all, let alone “five weeks in a row”. Even many non-Cowboys fans consider him to be at or near the top of the most deserving candidates still not in list. “Maybe” he advocates for Howley? Gosselin is the Dallas representative on the selection committee, so we shouldn’t be reduced to having to speculate on the matter.
And Kenny Easley wasn’t as good as Cliff Harris. You could make an argument for Johnny Robinson, though I wouldn’t even necessarily agree with that. But Howley is more deserving than all those guys.
Agreed Howley was a great. I’m not a Cowboys fan but even I know that. If that’s the case, it would be nice to read a Howley article. You’re right.
Disagree about Harris/Easley though. Did opposing coaches game plan specifically against Harris? I don’t think so. They did for Easley. Many times and many coaches admitted so. That’s greatness.
Not only was Harris a modern candidate finalist he actually made the final 6 before being voted down as candidate – in a year when the the rules at that point allowed voters could have selected 6 modern finalist. So yes he has received serious consideration among HOF voters. But along with Hayes (also voted down 1st time as finalist), Harris, along with Howley who has never been considered, you have the basis for the anti-cowboys bias that existed among HOF voters until the last ten years. Throughout much of the 80s and 90s deserving Cowboys were regularly ignored (unless they were obvious selections like Dorsett, White, Staubach, and Lilly), just look at the case of Mel Renfro only elected in his last year as a modern candidate – a 10 x pro bowl player!
Actually they did have to specifically game plan for Harris. He was the first great hard hitting, run stuffing free safety. HoF safety Larry Wilsion said, “I feel Harris is the finest free safety in the business today. He changed the way the position is being played. You see other teams modeling their free safeties around the way Harris plays the pass, and striking fear in everyone on the field because he hits so hard.” Ronnie Lott was the Cliff Harris of the 1980s.
He was also a good returner, racking up over 2,000 in that department and averaging 25.7 yards/kick off.
The 6 time Pro Bowler (one more than Easley) was a legitimate first team All Decade selection and as a full time starter was a key figure in winning 4 conference championships and 2 Super bowls.. His retirement marked the beginning of the decline of the Dallas defense, whose erosion started in the secondary.
He may have changed the position, as you say, but that doesn’t mean teams game planned specifically for him the way they did Easley. There’s a huge difference.
Now, Harris changed FS and Easley changed SS. That’s something that should put BOTH of them in the HOF. I’m not ragging on Harris.
Speaking of Lott, he said the player he most admired during his career was Easley. Lott was a CB for over 1/2 of the 80s and he acknowledges that Easley was the guy he wanted to try to be as good as.
The lack of safeties in comparison to many positions is kind of a joke. Guys like Easley, Harris, and Johnny Robinson (and Jack Tatum) could easily and frankly should be in.
You talk about Harris being a good KR. Easley returned punts after injury in ’84 (when he won NFL Defensive Player of the Year) and finished fourth in the NFL. Heck, Johnny Robinson gained over 1,000 yards offensively BEFORE moving to safety to average more interceptions per game than Easley or Harris (and those two full seasons of playing offense counted against his INT per game average, too). All three were so much more than simply safeties and nobody seems to know/understand this.
Of course teams had to game plan for Harris. He was an extra reliable run stopper on the field, and someone who routinely knocked star receivers unconscious. He was a big part of the reason Doomsday was as dominant as it was. Lott was contemporary with Easely, just as Wilson was contemporary with Harris, so neither comment is surprising.
Johnny Robinson’s stats and accolades are a little inflated from playing in a league of expansion teams for several years, though I agree there’s a major safety backlog and both those guys should be in the HoF. I wouldn’t necessarily oppose Easely’s induction either, though one problem with him is the short duration of his career, 7 years with no Super Bowl rings.
I have a hard time believing that teams went into games specifically trying to neutralize Cliff Harris when there were some of the great DL he played with. You can’t game plan to stop a bunch of players. Personally, I think guys on the DL probably received most attention, not Cliff Harris, from offensive coordinators.
They had to pay attention to all those guys. They called it “Doomsday” for a reason. My point about Harris was that the way the Cowboys could use him changed the Xs and Os calculations.
Cliff Harris is the only member of the 1970s NFL all Decade defensive 1st team not to be in the PFHOF………………(mike drop………….)
Kenny Easley is the only member of the 1980s NFL all Decade defensive 1st team not to be in the PFHOF………..(mike drop)……….
Could it be both are unbelievably deserving?
could be, as I was not making a case for which was better only that Harris is deserving
Agreed, Cliff Harris, Kenny Easley, and Johnny Robinson are elites at the safety position and all should have gotten in long ago — arguably the best three options available. Given how poorly represented this position in, one can in addition advocate for folks like Bobby Dillon Jimmy Patton, Eddie Meador, Deron Cherry, and Joey Browner. All have solid postseason honors profiles. Jack Tatum however has a decidedly weak profile compared to the rest, and I’m not in favor of his election, especially when all these folks are not in.
Though I will add that Harris has been waiting longer than Easely, had the longer career, and has the Super Bowl rings.
Peter King tweeted tonight that the Contributor Committee voted for ten finalists this week and the countdown from 10 to 2 will take place on August 16th.
In a follow-up King noted that he mistook and confused contributor with seniors in that post, so unless the schedule has changed compared to last year, we should expect announcement of the one 2017 senior candidate on August 16th and the two 2017 contributors in late September.
Here is what Ken Crippen had to say on PFRA ” One selector has told me he likes Slater. They may go safety with Robinson or Easley. They may go linebacker with Brazile or Gradishar.
Of course, Wistert and Hill died recently, so one of them may get the nod. :D”
Slater???
Duke Slater Paul
Brazile – I would surprised if it was not him, fits a need for 1970s LB, voters need to be careful not to continue recent trend of selecting deceased players as many living senior candidates are deserving for the honor while they are still alive
Here is what Clark Judge of Talk of Fame Network had to say ” Now, Bobby Beathard’s not only the 49th member of the Redskins’ Ring of Fame but is on the short list for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. With the Hall next month proposing two contributors as candidates for the Class of 2017, the smart money is on Beathard to be one of the choices.”
Here is what John McClain had this to say on facebook about Braziles chances of being a senior finalist for 2017, ” I will be surprised if he’s the one nominee. He finished third last year. There are so many worthy candidates. Next year, there will be two senior nominees rather than one. I’m hopeful every year that he’ll be the seniors nominee for the full committee that votes the day before the Super Bowl.” McClain also had this to say ” Rob, I won’t be there to vote, so I have no clue. I sure hope it’s Doom. I did everything I could. Keep your fingers crossed.”
While we are all waiting for the senior and contributor nominees to be released, I thought I’d post something that might generate some discussion.
Every year, I do an analysis of all players that are currently eligible for the modern-era hall of fame vote (in the case of the next election, this would be all players that played 5 or more seasons, retired between 1992 and 2011, and aren’t already in the HOF). I can certainly go into more detail on my methods if you guys wish, but I recently completed this year’s run, and it produced the following “power ranking” results at the skill positions.
QB’s
1. Kurt Warner
2. Boomer Esiason
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Randall Cunningham
5. Dave Krieg
6. Phil Simms
7. Drew Bledsoe
8. Rich Gannon
9. Trent Green
10. Jim Everett
11. Daunte Culpepper
12. Steve McNair
13. Jeff Garcia
14. Mark Brunell
15. Bernie Kosar
16. Vinny Testaverde
17. Mark Rypien
18. Brad Johnson
19. Jeff Hostetler
20. Jim McMahon
RB’s:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Roger Craig
3. Ricky Watters
4. Ottis Anderson
5. Terrell Davis
6. Edgerrin James
7. James Brooks
8. Tiki Barber
9. Shaun Alexander
10. Herschel Walker
11. Eddie George
12. Priest Holmes
13. Neal Anderson
14. Clinton Portis
15. Jamal Lewis
16. Freeman McNeil
17. Corey Dillon
18. Earnest Byner
19. Fred Taylor
20. Brian Westbrook
WR’s
1. Terrell Owens
2. Torry Holt
3. Gary Clark
4. Sterling Sharpe
5. Isaac Bruce
6. Henry Ellard
7. Mark Clayton (MIA)
8. Rod Smith
9. Jimmy Smith
10. Hines Ward
11. Drew Hill
12. Andre Rison
13. Mark Duper
14. Chad Johnson
15. Roy Green
16. Herman Moore
17. Irving Fryar
18. Anthony Miller
19. Antonio Freeman
20. John Taylor
21. Al Toon
22. Keyshawn Johnson
23. Keenan McCardell
24. Anthony Carter
25. Muhsin Muhammad
TE’s
1. Keith Jackson
2. Ben Coates
3. Jeremy Shockey
4. Brent Jones
5. Steve Jordan
6. Mark Bavaro
7. Frank Wycheck
8. Jay Novacek
9. Alge Crumpler
10. Wesley Walls
Huge drop off after Kurt Warner on the QB list, BSLO.
I think Edgerrin James and maybe some others should be higher than Roger Craig.
Gary Clark over Sterling Sharpe? No.
I’d be disappointed if the senior nominee is Brazile over Howley. Howley’s been waiting much longer, has 5 AP first team All Pro selections to Brazil’s 2, and was SB MVP. They both had 7 different accolade seasons, but Howley has a ring while Brazile never even made it to a Super Bowl, to the extent championships count for anything in HoF selection. We’re always told they do.
Brazile is 63. Howley is 80. Get Chuck Howley in now, please.
Gary Clark and Ricky Watters way too high, players behind them have better career numbers, SBs and post season awards
I agree Rasp and I hate it when suddenly a player becomes favorite of the year with fresh buzz from voters while just as deserving or more deserving get pushed off to side again.
Agreed that Clark and Watters are a bit high. I’d knock Watters down to 6th and Clark down to 5th. Within the data model I run, they seem to benefit from the fact that they don’t have glaring weaknesses on their resume – both have Super Bowl wins, a fair share of Pro Bowls, very good (but not elite) career counting stats, and they consistently finished among the league leaders in counting categories. Unfortunately, they don’t really have glaring strengths either, which is why I would place them at the top of the “Hall of Very Good” crowd.
Within the wide receiver group, I do a comparison of around 80 statistical categories, with the most important ones like receiving yards/game, Pro Bowls, All-Pros, MVP’s and Super Bowl Wins double-weighted. In a head-to-head comparison between Clark and Sharpe, Clark came out on top in 40 of them, Sharpe in 28 of them, and they were tied in 21 of them. This is why Clark ended up slightly ahead of Sharpe. I’d still say that Sharpe had a better career, but Clark’s team success makes the gap quite a bit closer than at first glance. I think he had a sneaky good career, and I wouldn’t object to him being inducted at some point in the senior pool.
In terms of Edgerrin James, he actually finished 1st when I ran the same analysis last year. I think that the inclusion of Tomlinson this year really affected the final results this time around. LT was a mile ahead of everyone else this year, with Craig being a clear 2nd. 3rd-6th was extremely close, so an extra tweak or two to my model would probably put TD and Edge ahead of OJ Anderson and Watters.
Warner is definitely far ahead of the rest of the QB’s, but surprisingly Boomer is a clear 2nd, and McNabb a clear 3rd. I anticipate that McNabb (and Shockey on the TE list) will drop a fair bit once more players from their era become eligible. The only real surprise on the QB list was Dave Krieg being 5th. I don’t really think he had a better career than Simms, Bledsoe or Gannon so I might need to do some tweaking there.
Here is what was produced for the O-Line list. I think this one is for the most part pretty good, though guys like Boselli, Kreutz and Stepnoski seem lower than they should be, and Matt Light is a bit high:
1. Alan Faneca
2. Joe Jacoby
3. Kevin Mawae
4. Steve Wisniewski
5. Mike Kenn
6. Jay Hilgenberg
7. Tony Boselli
8. Jim Lachey
9. Richmond Webb
10. Chris Hinton
11. Kent Hull
12. Tom Nalen
13. Lomas Brown
14. Nate Newton
15. Olin Kreutz
16. Matt Light
17. Willie Anderson
18. Chris Samuels
19. Erik Williams
20. Bill Fralic
21. Bruce Armstrong
22. Ruben Brown
23. Kris Dielman
24. Jeff Bostic
25. Marcus McNeill
26. Guy McIntyre
27. Mark Stepnoski
28. Ray Donaldson
29. Tra Thomas
30. Jeff Hartings
And no love for the 2 SBs (and SB MVP) of Hines Ward? He will not have an easy or quick path to PFHOF election, but surely he has better chance/qualifications than Gary Clark, Henry Ellard, Mark Clayton (MIA), Rod Smith, and Jimmy Smith??
I do not see any other QB below Warner ever getting in, and none of those TEs (there are very few pure TE in the PFHOF currently and only a new in the near future).
I applaud your efforts, but perhaps keeping each list to a more reasonable length (and to truly represent those with any future chance), they should have been capped at top 10. Otherwise you end up with dozens of listings of very good players with no chance whatsoever to get in – just a friendly suggestion.
Im back for good just saw this on the talk of fame website its a poll asking who is the most deserving candidate for the class of 2017 http://www.talkoffamenetwork.com/deserving-hof-senior-candidate/ who would you add who would you subtract i for 1 would add chuck howley’s name
Yet again Gosselin ignores Chuck Howley? What is his problem with Howley and as the representative from Dallas media he should be advocating hard for a player in Howley who has gotten so close in recent years and clearly needs to be elected. As much as I would like to see Drew Pearson get some consideration, Howley has been waiting longer, is very deserving, and in recent years been among the top 5 seniors considered and he does not even make this list? WTF??
my sentiments excatly paul
I read Gosselin the riot act there, but if past experience is any guide he’ll just ignore it. Unless he breaks from past practice he won’t even answer the simple questions, asked in a couple of different places, about why Pearson over Howley?
Gosselin did break from past practice to answer Paul by saying he went with Pearson over Howley because Pearson is All decade. That was the only reason he mentioned. But he finally went on record stating that he thinks Howley belongs in the Hall of Fame, which is the first time I’ve seen him do that. He pointedly went out of his way to answer just about every respondent from yesterday except me, LOL. I guess I hurt his feelings a long time ago because he never responds to me, but at least that would mean he’s read some of what I’ve written. I wonder if he even lurks here from time to time.
Of course it shouldn’t be like pulling teeth to get him to admit Howley belongs in Canton. He should be the one trumpeting that.
As mentioned before the major problem with the senior candidate selection process is that a subcommittee of only 9 voters determine the 10 finalist via vote. Then of those 9, only 5 (who rotate each year) meet in Canton in mid August to determine the candidate through a series of votes down from 10 to 5 to 1 (or 2 depending on the year, this year it is 1). So it only takes the persistence or loud voice of one voter to sway the other 4 voters to a candidate. If a senior candidate does not have a strong advocate among the 5 voters in a given year than his chance is small. I see no evidence that in the years Gosselin served on the 5 member selection committee that he went out of his way to make a strong case for Howley. Having said that we do know from the limited amount of information that has come out from votes in previous years (although final 10 and 5 are never publicly released by the PFHOF) Howley has in the past been in the final 10 and perhaps even final 5, so he has support the question is does he have enough to get him elected soon. The last few years we have seen some buzz and speculation going into the seniors candidate selection about strong contenders who ended up elected, and this year that seems to lean towards Brazile. But again hard to predict what the outcome will be with 5 people in a room debating and voting. And no disrespect towards a candidate and his family if he is deceased, but I hope voters are not going to turn this selection into an annual memorial to the recently departed.
And I have no problem with Kramer getting all the push to be elected and would support his selection. In fact perhaps it is time for the voters to move beyond this issue and the annual debates and campaign by fans and his family members and simply select Jerry Kramer as it is a safe and deserving selection and in the future would clear the slate and debate for others with his name off the list. If not we just keep having this debate and all the public focus and attention on Kramer and no one else.
Agreed, Paul. That lack of evidence is what bothers me. Having said that, Gosselin did reply to me for the first time today, albeit on a couple of peripheral issues, so maybe he really does lurk here and read what we said yesterday, lol.
Gosselins view at this point really does not matter for 2017 selection as although he voted for top 10 he indicated that he is not among the 5 senior committee members who will meet to select 2017 senior candidate in a few weeks in Canton
I’ve been working on some Hall of Fame lists regarding over and under represented positions by time period. The research is not completed, but it is clear that 1980s players in general, and particularly WRs and DBs, are vastly underrepresented in the HOF. Of course, this is in part explained by the fact that voters are still inducted, and will be for some time, players from this era. For example, Joe Jacobi has a very good chance of being inducted in 2017. However, some of the numbers are stark. For example, the largest number of HOF WRs playing at the same time occurred from 1965 to 1967: 9 (Berry, McDonald, Maynard, Mitchell, Alsworth, Taylor, Warfield, Bilentnikoff, Hayes). Yet, from 1980-82 there were only 6 HOF WRs (Joiner, Stallworth, Swann, Largent, Lofton, Monk) and only five in 83 and 84 after Swann retired. The DB number, if anything, are even more stark. The most DBs playing simultaneously occurred in 1970 and 1971: 13 (LeBeau, Wilson, Wood, Adderley, Johnson, Brown, Krause, Renfro, Thomas, Barney, Houston, Wehrli, Blount). Yet, in 1984-86, there were only 3 HOF DBs: Haynes, Lott, Green. And the list only adds Woodson (87) and Sanders (89) for the rest of the decade. Does anyone else find this shocking? This tells me that players like Deron Cherry, Frank Minnifield, Kenny Easley, Gary Clark, Henry Ellard, Roy Green (and others) should be reconsidered from a different prism. If you are the best of your time period, you should have a good case for the HOF. It is almost as if the HOF voters in an effort to get all of the deserving 1960s players in simply forgot to give due consideration to the players of the 1980s, who were then stuck in a numbers game with the players from the 1990 and later.
1965-1967 and 1970-71 have advantage of those players coming from two professional leagues in the 1960s (NFL and AFL) so twice as many all pro, pro bowl, league playoff and championship slots and opportunities. And even though the leagues were fully merged by 1971, many of those DBs built their careers in the 1960s with NFL or AFL. If 1980s are truly underrepresented a comparison to 1990s may be more valid one.
To some degree I do think the 1980s WRs are underrepresented as their HOF eligibility started in the 1990s when the passing game started to drive up pass reception numbers where as by then most of the pre 1980 WRs were already elected. Once the 1990s and 2000s WRs started to appear on the HOF ballot their season, playoff, and career receiving numbers greatly exceeded those from the 1980s many of whom were still on the ballot. Unfair, sure but an unfortunate reality in that many of the 1980s WRs will now need to find themselves buried in the seniors candidate pool with so many other deserving players including from other eras and positions. With the 2000s era WRs starting now to arrive on the ballot, I do not foresee any easy path for the 1980s and prior era WRs as their numbers compared to recent eras really hurt in terms of a direct comparison.
Thanks Paul. With regards to Ward, I’d say that he deserves to be ahead of both Smiths (who he finished just behind), but I’ll stress that the model is designed to rank their chances at getting inducted this year as opposed to their chances at getting inducted in future years. One of the categories I look at in the analysis is preliminary nominations over the past 5 years (to measure current voting momentum). With Ward being a 1st-time nominee this year, he currently rates poorly. However, once he gets a few years on the ballot (assuming he’s nominated), he’ll pull ahead of Rod and Jimmy.
The reason he’s behind guys like Clayton, Ellard and Clark is because these players are among the best remaining eligible players from their era, while Ward is only at best the 4th best eligible WR from his era. When running the analysis for each player, I do two comparisons: one against the entire eligible WR population, and the other against only the players who overlapped the player’s career by at least 5 years. So while Ward and Ellard/Clayton/Clark are eligible for the same vote, they are essentially running separate races.
Justin’s comments regarding the 80’s WR’s being a bit underrepresented and judged from a different lens is definitely something worth taking into consideration when judging Ward’s future chances. While on the surface, you may say Ward’s counting stats look great, they are actually not that impressive if you do any sort of era adjustment. He retired 8th on the all-time receptions list, however so did Gary Clark, and Drew Hill. His TD totals are admittedly very good, but his yards/catch, receiving yards/game and receiving yards totals are pretty bad in comparison to other top WR contenders. His Super Bowl MVP trophy is nice, but I have to question how important it really is to voters. Is there any borderline candidate that a Super Bowl MVP trophy has put over the top? It hasn’t even put an obvious guy like Howley into the Hall. I believe the voters view this trophy more like the Rookie of the Year award than an All-Pro nod.
One last point about Ward versus Clark/Sharpe/Clayton/Ellard. I would actually argue that his future chances of getting inducted are worse or at least even to those 4.
In terms of players from his era (I will assume this is anybody whose career overlapped his by 5 years), Ward is at the very least behind Rice, Brown, Carter, Moss, Owens, Harrison and Holt. I would also argue that he’s behind not yet eligible players like Wayne, Fitzgerald, Andre and Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall, and also Isaac Bruce. I know this is a passing era, but if he’s the 15th best WR from his era, does he really have a chance?
In comparison, Clark and Sharpe have only Rice, Brown, Carter, Reed, Irvin, Lofton and Monk from their era. With Ellard and Clayton, you can also add Steve Largent and John Stallworth. It’s easy to argue that Ward had better numbers, and more (or in Clark’s case equal) team success than these guys, but these four have less obstacles in their ways if you take into account the current and future competition from their era.
Harrison on NFL.com has some interesting comments on the potential PFHOF Class of 2017 including senior candidates (although is really on Gosselin for input!);
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000681660/article/hall-of-fame-class-of-2017-forecasting-the-next-canton-clique
Oops my mistake. Clark actually had a 5 year overlap with Largent as well.
from Harrison on NFL.com
“Trying to predict who will be nominated as a Seniors Committee candidate is darn near impossible. But I can tell you a few names I heard kicked around by a few voters, Hall of Famers and even a couple of my colleagues:
Jerry Kramer, OG, Packers: Rick Gosselin of The Dallas Morning News — and a member of both the Seniors and Contributor committees — thinks 2017 might be the year for Kramer.
Chuck Howley, LB, Bears/Cowboys: Been suggesting this guy on NFL.com and NFL Network for so long that maybe someone is listening. Gosselin thinks he has a strong chance, sooner than later: “Howley had 43 takeaways — that’s second all time among linebackers. The top guy? Jack Ham.” Ham, of course, was a first-ballot Hall of Famer and legend in Pittsburgh.”
BSLO I think you are putting too much weight on the era comparisons of WRs (i.e. Clark has a better chance then Ward because he is higher ranked among WR of his era), I am not so sure HOF voters see it that way. And I do believe Ward with two SBs and SB MVP has a better chance the many other WRs including Clark, Sharpe, Clayton and Ellard because HOF voters do care about SBs (Swann and Stallworth are in the PFHOF because of their SBs). Ward has strong career numbers as well. I am not saying he will get in soon but once the wave of current and recent WRs gets in, I can foresee Ward getting some strong interest in 8-10 years.
Paul: Your point only strengthens Clark’s case against Ward. Both players won two Super Bowls. Clark’s Redskins won Super Bowls 21 and 26. In those games, Clark had 10 receptions for 169 yards and 2 TDs. He also had one rush for 25 yards. Ward (despite his MVP) was worse in every category: 7 receptions, 166 yards, 1 TD, 18 rushing yards. And, let’s not forget that Wards TD came on an unconventional WR pass, when you would expect him to be open. Also, Clark’s numbers came in a worse passing era when he had multiple competing targets (Monk had 8 receptions for 153 yards and Sanders had 10 for 234 yards in those games). In short, Clark was better than Ward in every facet of the game during those Super Bowls (except blocking, which was instead Monk’s role on the team). All of that said, I actually like Ward’s chances to get into the HOF. He was a beloved players on a popular team that has a very good track record of getting players in the HOF. My point is not to say Ward shouldn’t or won’t make the HOF, but instead to point out that the voters (and those of us on this board) need to take another look at the 80s players (particularly WRs and DBs).
I agree that due to the passing game era since 1990s, WRs from pre 1990 are not getting attention from PFHOF voters that they deserve, but as WRs from this era enter eligibility for the PFHOF their receiving numbers are so much greater and it is hard for the voters to compare across those eras (same can be said for QBs and TEs). I am not sure how voters are going to resolve this issue or if they ever will, leaving many pre 1990 players heading into the senior candidate pool. I am not sure what the issue is regarding DBs from the 1980s (although we all know the answer for the Safeties – HOF voters ignore or dismiss all of them regardless of era) but I am not so certain the PFHOF voters really spend much time when voting down to 25 semi-finalists then down to 15 finalists and elections thinking about representation across decades by position. Sure they are thinking about a pool of 25 (and 15) that is not over weighted in a particular position but not to the level of position by decade.
That Gosselin’s been quoted saying that about Howley is interesting since he just spent days arguing against Howley’s case with us on his own blog. His entire argument was that Howley wasn’t selected to an All Decade team. I pointed out that 11 of the past 17 senior nominations have gone to guys who weren’t on All Decade teams, and even listed a bunch of recent modern era inductees who weren’t All Decade, checkmating that argument, and he hasn’t responded since.
So is Gosselin really campaigning for Howley after all, just mostly privately? Or was that quote for NFL.com just a throwaway bone for Cowboys fans? The nomination will be released soon. I guess we’ll see.
Cliff Branch Robert Brazile Randy Gradishar Chuck Howley Jerry Kramer are in my final five for the senior nomination who should i add who should i subtract
Swann and Stallworth are in the Hall of Fame because of a lack of dominant receiver play in the 70’s. Their 4 Super Bowls are no doubt the driving factor of their induction, but their competition was a lot weaker than what Ward will have to contend with. Ward’s counting stats are pretty good, but like every receiver before him, they will only look worse over time, so the real deciding factor of his chances is going to hinge on how much his 2 Super Bowls and Super Bowl MVP award are valued.
Winning 2 Super Bowls is a nice accomplishment, but it’s not overly rare. Guys like Neil Smith, Darren Woodson (who has 3), Nate Newton (3) and Tom Nalen all have pretty solid post-season award profiles, but none of these three aside from Woodson has even made it to the semi-finalist stage. Steve Atwater and Roger Craig have 2 and 3 Super Bowl wins apiece, and are on all-decade teams, but have had a really tough time getting any momentum.
Gary Clark is probably the closest comparable to Ward from the 80’s/90’s group of receivers. He has two Super Bowl rings, finished at about the same spots as Ward on the all-time receiving lists when he retired (Clark was 8th in receptions, 7th in receiving yards, 27th in receiving TD’s, 11th in receiving yards among those with 32 or more games played while Ward was 8th, 18th, 13th and 83rd), and finished with a slightly better post-season award profile (4/4/none vs. 4/3/none). Both players never led the league in any major receiving stats, but Clark had more finishes in the top 10 than Ward in every major receiving stat. As Justin mentioned, Clark had better SB performances, but Ward has a slight edge in playoff performance overall (66 yards/game vs. 59 for Clark). Overall, I’d say this comparison is pretty even, so it’s hard to make a case for Ward without making a case for Clark.
In terms of other SB MVP winners, Ottis Anderson is a reasonable comparison to make. He finished his career with great counting stats (7th in rushing TD’s, 8th in rushing yards), 2 Super Bowl wins, a Rookie of the Year award, and a Comeback Player of the Year award. He also finished in the top 10 in rushing yards 5 times, and the top 10 in rushing TD’s 3 times (similar to Ward finishing in the top 10 4 times in receptions, 3 times in receiving yards and 3 times in receiving TD’s). His post-season award profile is definitely worse (2/2/none), but not far off.
Clark and Anderson have never been considered as semi-finalists before despite similar cases to Ward’s, and are headed toward senior pool purgatory. I can’t see an upcoming situation where Ward will even be the top WR considered with TO, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce in his way, and several better receivers headed for consideration in the next 8-10 years (Moss, Wayne, Calvin Johnson, in addition to Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith and Marshall who are still active).
His best advantage is that the media loves him, and I think that that might lead to a late eligibility boost. They certainly do like his blocking ability! If he some how makes the semi-finalist list this year though, all bets are off.
Glad to hear that Kramer and Howley are getting consideration from some voters. They are definitely two of the biggest senior snubs for sure. I’d really like to at least see a defensive player get the nomination this year.
My Defensive Finalists are Brazile Easley Gradishar Greenwood Howley Klecko J.Robinson my pick hopefully Chuck Howley
Given the two offense positions for 2016 senior candidates, defense (and acknowledged need for more of it in the PFHOF) will be the very likely choice for 2017, plus pool of senior candidates is much deeper and stronger then offense (because modern and senior candidates for PFHOF over the last few decades have generally been mostly on the offensive side), especially with 60s/70s DB and 70s LB. And with comments from some PFHOF voters in recent years, perhaps team representation may be a factor? Getting senior candidates selected from teams underrepresented (would favor Brazile) versus teams well represented including with more recent selections (would harm Kramer)
Personally I would prefer Howley but if selected I would also support Kramer, Robinson, Brazile, or Gradishar as deserving selections. I just hope it is not a fringe candidate, someone not considered in recent years, or a recent deceased (no offense attended)
i would prefer howley also paul
Obviously Howley is my first choice.
BTW, I have to give credit to PFR. Their new format dropped the plus signs signifying which players on the leaders lists were HoFers, which I had always found handy in research, so I emailed them about it. They replied saying they fixed it and sure enough the plus signs are back.
Definitely a big fan of PFR, as that is where I do the bulk of my research. I find them to be very responsive to feedback and emails.
I’d say my top 5 senior candidates would be Kramer, Robinson, Howley, Harris and Greenwood. I’d be thrilled if any of those were nominated this year, and would also be pretty happy with any of the top LB or S candidates.
Also, here are the top 20 DL from the analysis I completed (keeping it at top 20 as a compromise to Paul). Jason Taylor was ahead by a mile, and there was definitely a surprise at #2.
1. Jason Taylor
2. Steve McMichael
3. Neil Smith
4. Trevor Pryce
5. Leslie O’Neal
6. Michael Dean Perry
7. Bryant Young
8. Ray Childress
9. Charles Mann
10. Fred Smerlas
11. La’Roi Glover
12. Simeon Rice
13. Michael Carter
14. Aaron Smith
15. Jevon Kearse
16. Keith Millard
17. Ted Washington
18. Greg Townsend
19. Kris Jenkins
20. Dana Stubblefield
Yes McMichael at 2nd is a surprise, but my first impression is how quick the fall off in quality is and how these of few of these DL are ever getting into the PFHOF. Sometimes we tend to think that every position has depth and we would expect over a period of time equal or at least reasonable numbers of players from every position to be elected, but clearly as this shows DL are going to in the minority when it comes to future elections (until boasted by eventual new DL to the ballot). Besides Jasonj Taylor the next decade is going to be very lean for modern PFHOF elections from DL position.
I hate to be a broken record, but this DL list is full of players who are underappreciated. Leslie O’Neal (when healthy) was a much better player than most people remember. Even with all of his injuries, O’Neal is still 13th on the all-time sacks list (132.5) which is tied with Lawrence Taylor (admitted they played different positions and LT’s rookie year is excluded). Moreover, O’Neal had far more sacks than Freeney (119,5) or Robert Mathis (118), both generally considered solid candidates from today. O’Neal’s 132.5 sacks are also only 3.5 less than Julius Peppers (likely first ballot guy) and Jared Allen (very likely HOF). Hell, O’Neal averaged nearly 13 sacks a year between 1989 and 1995. In short, O’Neal is certainly a Hall of Very Good player and would not be an embarrassment to the HOF. In fact, if he had played for SF or in the NFC East, he not only would have multiple rings but probably a gold jacket a long time ago.
Neal Smith is much the same (although his peak was well behind O’Neal’s). He was a top contributor to a two-time Super Bowl champ and the 2nd best player on Kansas City’s excellent teams who made the playoffs six years running between 1990 and 1995. While probably the quintessential Hall of Very Good player, it is worth noting that Neal Smith’s career adjusted career AV is 95 (168th since 1960) which is the same as Howie Long and a point less than Richard Dent.
Others on the list who could at least make a very convincing Hall of Very Good (if not HOF) case are Bryant Young (at one point considered a sure-fire HOF), Ray Childress, and Simeon Rice. As a Redskin fan, I also have to give a shout-out to Charles Mann, who was a 4 time pro bowler, 3 time Super Bowl champ (picking up his last ring with SF in 1994), and the unquestioned leader of the Skins’ defense after Dexter Manley was thrown out of the league for drug use.
I agree and was perhaps premature in my assessment of the DL as O’Neal and Neil Smith both have solid HOF careers and should be considered. But for me the only true underappreciated players not yet in the PFHOF are the many all decade 1st team players back as far as the 1940 still not in.
Before you can even talk about Winston Hill, Johnny Robinson and Robert Brazile you first must consider Maxie Baughan, George Kunz and Lemar Parrish. Not once were these names mention by anyone for senior selection. I find that to be completely shocking for researchers that actually even do their homework. Maxie Baughan not being included in the HOF has been the organizations’ biggest “Black-Eye” ever…. and continues to cast a dark cloud over the committee’s ability to make proper selections.
I could potentially see the top 12 DL from my list being considered at some point by the senior committee, though Mann and Pryce and McMichael might be long shots. Everyone below that has no shot. The Hall has done a great job lately at getting the best candidates on the defensive line inducted quickly. As Paul alluded to, it’s pretty evident that these two positions have far less depth on the nominee than LB or DB. This bodes well for future eligible players like Richard Seymour, Jared Allen and Kevin Williams.
Justin, I am also a huge supporter of Neil Smith and Leslie O’Neal. I think they have a chance at being considered somewhat quickly once they hit the senior pool. Overall, there aren’t many significant DE snubs in the senior pool, so Smith and O’Neal should enter the shortlist at the position right away.
Other than tight end, the DL is definitely the most inaccurately represented position on the preliminary nominee list every year. The only 3 guys that seem to get nominated consistently are Smerlas, Mann and Young. O’Neal occasionally gets a nomination, but guys like Smith, Perry and Glover never seem to make the list.
Baughan is definitely one of the biggest snubs by the senior committee. I’m surprised no one (including myself) has brought him up, though a lot of the LB conversation has centered around Howley and Brazile lately due to them receiving heavy consideration from the senior committee recently.
Kunz and Parrish are definitely two guys that belong in the conversation, but they would fall around maybe the 25-35 mark is I was to make a list. If you are going strictly off of Pro Bowls, these two having 8 is definitely rare among the senior pool, but their cases lose a bit of steam when you consider their lack of team success, lack of an all-decade team nod, and their low amount of All-Pro nominations. In addition, neither Kunz or Parrish has been in the senior pool for very long, so that doesn’t necessarily help either.
Thanks for the insightful reply. My intention wasn’t to embarrass anyone but to give a loud shout-out to three individuals that have fallen through the proverbial cracks.
Howley and Brazile have always been on my radar – no doubt, but for me Pro Bowl will always carry the greatest amount of weight compared to anything else. The rest is incredibly subjective. The numbers speak for themselves. How many times in a players career were they viewed by their peers to be one of the very best? There’s a strong metric here and it’s a simple division equation. All-Pro narrows down the field, but then becomes a popularity contest. The idea of team success (Super Bowl wins) is the very concept that has kept the likes of Paul Krause, Chris Hanburger and many others out for embarrassingly too long….. creating these unnecessary logjams. All-decade is an interesting metric, but then quickly falls into the subjectivity category. The decision probably came down to three qualified individuals, and was ultimately decided by a coin toss. That’s why you eventually have to toss these standards out. They’re useful to a point, but then quickly becomes painfully questionable. Pro Bowl doesn’t have that problem.
The standards of the linebacking position has for the longest time been set by the likes of Butkus and Lambert. A player like Baughan didn’t have a chance until you do the math.
Baughan has been discussed elsewhere recently, and I think here in the past. I think first team All Pro selections are more valuable than Pro Bowls because they mean you’ve been judged to be the best in the entire league at your position. Pro Bowls are easier to make, and they’re just as subjective as anything else. Objective stats are things like interceptions and fumble recoveries, and to some extent sacks, though pre-1982 those numbers were kept by each team and are informal. Championships, while a team achievement, are also objective, and HoF selectors have always claimed they weigh heavily in their decisions, though you wouldn’t know it from Howley’s snubbing.
Take the argument for Joe Jacoby for example. I think people are crazy to think that he’s HOF worthy. Joe Jacoby……really? Strip away all the bias and propaganda and what do you have? A tackle that is a 4/2 with a .3076 rating. After a thirteen year career his peers thought so highly of him only to consider him one of the best 4 times. That’s all…..that just doesn’t cut it. Who cares about a 3X Super Bowl Champ – it doesn’t reflect his individual effort and his career. The guy played 170 regular season games and I’m suppose to believe that 3 additional starts should take him over the top. That’s ridiculous and the very reason why SB wins is irrelevant.
George Kunz who played tackle on two nominal teams during his career is a 8/1 with a .7272 rating. That rating should be a .80 because he only played 1 game in 1978. Simply put – his peers thought highly enough of him to select him one of the best tackles 8 out of 10 times during his entire career….that’s 8 out of 10 – not bad. When you have numbers like that don’t even mention Joe Jacoby or even his sidekick Russ Grimm. The numbers simply don’t add up….period!
could they possibly go with 2 gms for the contributor maybe like bethard and young and zoneblitz you can get rid of that anonymous comment tom where did you get the ratings
Robert, it’s really a simple percentage and not a complex formula – that would be way beyond me. I call it a rating because I’m comparing the like numbers and attempting to evaluate them for some sort of quick value or meaning. You simply take the number of pro bowls and divide it by the total number of years in the league – that’s all.
that makes sense thanks for the exp
Bias and favoritism also plagues Pro Bowl selections and has for decades so I am not a big fan of using them alone – or giving them heavy weighting – in determining players resume for the PFHOF. I look at the following (and yes I known of these are perfect and many also have bias with selections):
– All Decade Team member
-in the top 10 of major career numbers
– League MVPs (especially if more than one)
– SB MVP
– Number of 1st time All Pro selections (especially if 4+), plus 2nd team selections
– Number of Pro Bowl teams., minimum of 5
– playoff numbers and successes, including SBs
-record setting season(s)
I suppose one could develop a scoring system for these and rank players, which may others have done variations of such a system.
And would any history of a NFL era/decade need to include this player (yes somewhat subjective).
The one factor that I think that we can all agree on is CONSISTENCY. Is the player that is being consider for the HOF consistent throughout his entire career? I always thought that longevity with consistency was a major factor until you closely look at the average length of a players career per position. The strength of the Pro Bowl criterion is that it takes a large pool and reduces it down to a very small pool. The All-Pro criterion takes the very small pool and makes it even smaller. Both criteria are strong indicators, but how do you discern between two great possibilities? That’s where the water starts to get muddy. This guy is better than that guy because of two more tackles….really? That’s the very reason why you go back to the Pro Bowl criterion….because you have a base to work from. All the candidates that you have are great selections, worthy of consideration.
My problem with the All-Pro criterion is that it’s typically the smaller of the two numbers. It doesn’t show consistency like the Pro Bowl criterion does and it hurts the player. I’m looking for consistency and I typically get that from the Pro Bowl criterion.
I think that Paul’s list nails it on the head with the exception of SB values. How many players never get the chance to play in a SB throughout their entire career? Too bad for them….they’re not worthy? Statistics in SB are only relevant to a few positions and that’s all. Because of these issues the value of their importance drops significantly. Remember that you’re trying to find the consistency in a players effort throughout their entire career – not the sporadic glitz and glamour moments defined by a SB. I don’t mind slapping the label on position players like a QB or WR who have a greater advantage to influence a game – but other positions?
Again, my contention is that you start with Pro Bowl consistency and you work your way down.
I also wouldn’t necessarily treat players’ votes with any more respect than media votes. The “Top 100 NFL Players” annual lists, voted on by players, shows how absurd their rankings can be. Players are as likely to vote on reputation as anyone else, and many don’t spend much time examining players they aren’t prepping to directly go against. Then there’s the element of friends, grudges, etc..
I value all the stuff Paul listed. I’d say that either Pro Bowls or All Pros could be used as a general narrowing down process, but Pro Bowls are less precise. Someone can make a Pro Bowl, especially historically, because someone else pulled out due to injury or simply because they didn’t want to play. Someone with a ton of Pro Bowls should probably be in the Hall of Fame regardless of whether they have any first team All Pro selections, but the reverse is true too. The fact remains that first team All Pro selections are more exclusive than Pro Bowl selections.
2017 senior candidate to be announced this Tuesday afternoon (Aug 16)
Final Predictions on senior nominee im saying either kramer howley or johnny robinson
On Twitter Peter King posts senior committee meeting tomorrow Monday Aug 15 and contributors committee on Tuesday Aug 16
Still thinking it will Brazile just a thinking, I would perfer Howley, Kramer or Robinson
Ron Borges said on the Talk of Fame Podcast this past week he hopes Jerry Kramer is chosen tomorrow. He believes Robert Brazile is a darkhouse. He believes Kenny Easley is the 2nd most deserving player after Kramer.
Peter King’s MMQB column just gave the 10 finalists for the contributor’s category: (1) Beathard, (2) Bowlen, (3) Brandt, (4) Jones, (5) Kilroy, (6) McNally, (7) Sabol, (8) Tagliabue, (9) Wooten, and (10) Young.
My quick thought is that Beathard, Bowlen, Brandt, Sabol, and Young seem like no brainers that will get in some day. Less certain about the others. While I would be fine with any of these five, I think Beathard is the most worthy. Contributing to 7 Super Bowl teams is more than enough to cover up the Leaf debacle. Any besides, anyone in his position would have drafted Leaf. He had at least the same physical tools as Manning, and was considered a true leader of his Washington State team. He was even carried off the field by his teammates.
Also interesting to see if the senior nominee influences the contributors. For example, if Howley or Pearson were the senior nominee, would the contributor committee be reluctant to nominate Brandt? Seems likely to me.
I think Beathard and Brandt need to be the top 2 mentioned. My reasoning with Brandt is he was responsible for the Landry era having so many winning seasons in a row from a talent standpoint. While Brandt was fired after the 1989 draft, Brandt did lay down parts of the foundation of the Dallas Cowboys that won 3 Super Bowls. The 1989 draft matter of fact had 4key players of the Super Bowl years. The 1989 Draft had Aikman, Daryl Johnston, Mark Stepnoski and Tony Tolbert.
Brandt also was responsible Nate Newton, Michael Irvin, Ken Norton, Kevin Grogan, and Jeff Jeffcoat. Those players I mentioned to did play a key for the Cowboys going to Super Bowls also.
Just to clear Peter King did not release the official final ten contributors but who he felt were the strongest contenders, yes may be many of the same but it is not the official list
Kenny Easley is the 2017 senior candidate
Your thoughts on Easley Paul?
Per Ken Crippen, it looks like Easley is this year’s pick
If I had to choose, would’ve rather seen Howley get the nod because he’s been waiting longer but Easley’s deserving. Short career, but has enough for a “Sayers/Stephenson”-type exception. Both Bill Walsh and Ronnie Lott said he was the best safety they’ve ever seen.
Well Easley hits all the key qualifications with 4 All pro, NFL Defensive Player of the Year, All Decade team. My only issue that he retired in 187 and thus a relatively recent addition to the seniors pool, and with a seven year career was able to jump several other equal or more qualified candidates who are 20+ years older and been in the pool in some cases a few decades longer. Too bad that Kramer (and his fans will be pissed off and all over social media today), Howley and Robinson wait again another year. Perhaps with two senior candidate slots for 2018 it will improve their chances, but today is another disappointment for them, their fans and supporters and continues to risk that they will never live to see the honor.
Clark Judge had this to say “The former Seattle star is the Hall of Fame’s senior nominee for the Class of 2017, with Easley on Monday named ahead of 15 others competing for one spot. The selection was a mild surprise, with linebacker Robert Brazile, former offensive lineman Jerry Kramer and Easley among the favorites.” He also had this to say ” Now comes the hard part: Passing the test of the Hall’s board of selectors, which grew to 48 this year with the addition of former players Dan Fouts and James Lofton, both Hall-of-Fame members. To make it, Easley must receive 80 percent of the vote when the board meets Feb. 4, 2017, one day prior to Super Bowl LI.”http://www.talkoffamenetwork.com/easley-2017-senior-nominee/
I wouldn’t see why getting the votes would be an issue for Easley. Dick Stanfel’s career was actually even shorter than Easley’s (73 games vs. 89) and he got the necessarily votes. Easley being an 80’s player means most of the voters should be readily familiar with him and Fouts and Lofton were both contemporaries of Easley’s.
I agree, really hard for current group of voters to turn down seniors as they know the slots are very limited and that the senior candidate pool very deep, his 5 all pro, NFL Defensive Player of the Year and especially all decade team, make him a strong candidate – one reason I think the senior committee selected him – a relatively safe selection. And I reflect on a comment made in recent years by committee members looking to nominate a deserving player who has yet to be a finalist and not had the chance to be debated and voted on by the full committee.
I think James Lofton and Dan Fouts helps Easley since they are voters. James played against the Seahawks when he was a Packer and as a Raider When Easley played. Dan Fouts played against Easley a lot back when The Seahawks and the Chargers were in the same division.
While I prefer Jerry Kramer, Chuck Howley, or Johnny Robinson, I like this selection by the senior committee for a 3 reasons.
1.) The Safety position doesn’t have a lot of players inducted into the Hall of Fame although I would have Johnny Robinson over Kenny due to amount of time waiting to get inducted.
2.) If Easley gets inducted into the Pro football hall of Fame, this helps out the 1980’s Safety jam that coming up.
The fact is Deron Cherry, Joey Browner, have the same amount of pro bowls, amount of 1st team all pro’s and both are on the 2nd team of the 1980’s all Decade on team. Deron Cherry and Joey Browner player different safety positions, but those 2 have 6 pro bowls each, and 3 first team all pro team each also.
Deon Cherry played Free Safety and Joey Browner played Strong safety. The fact is Easley is needed to be inducted into the hall first since he was one the first all decade team.
3.) Kenny’s resume is strong enough to off set the fact he only played 7 seasons. Anyone who has 4 1st team all pros, defensive player of the year, and made the first all decade team should inducted into the hall of fame.
I agree with all of Paul’s comments. In addition, some the selectors have talked about spreading the senior nominations more evenly among the franchises. Right now Detroit and Cleveland have 6 nominees a piece (not counting the multiple nominations of Stanfel and Creekmur). On the other end of the spectrum, the Colts, Jets, Chargers, Bengals, and Buccaneers have never had a senior nominee, and the Cardinals (the oldest franchise in the NFL) have never had a senior nominee elected. Of course, a common thread between the franchises is that they generally haven’t been very good. That said, Easley is Seattle’s first senior nominee, and a good one.
One final thought: Easley retired because of a kidney condition and has already had a transplant. Therefore, while lots of guys are older and have been waiting longer, it is not as if Easley is in fantastic health. Just something to keep in mind.
And Easley just had a triple heart bypass surgery a few weeks ago
Here is what Clark Judge had to say regarding Brazile and Kramer” Yes, I think both have shots, and would hope Kramer comes out soon. Really would like to see him get in while he’s alive.” Also this to say “Sam, I’ll be honest: Thought Kramer had a great shot. Don’t really understand it, but I wasn’t in room.” A third thing he had to say ” Mike, when they went to a contributor category, they cut one senior candidate out of every other year. Doesn’t make sense because there are far more deserving seniors than there are contributors. Would like to see that change.” Ron Wolf was a consultant this year.
Ron Borges said on last week TOF show that Jack Tatum was one of the senior finalists among 14.
Brazile can wait until after Howley and Gradishar get in…maybe Baughn, too.
second that steve could not agree more which brings me to this fact since 1997 only 2 men as senior nominees have not gotten in Jerry Kramer 1997 Marshall Goldberg 2008
He wasn’t my first choice, but I think Easley was a great nominee. Can’t really add too much to what’s already been said, except that despite the short wait he had, he’s probably the best new addition to the senior’s pool over the past 5 years. Glad to see they are addressing the safety backlog, and I hope that they tackle the linebacker position again next year.
On the contributors side, I really hope that the nominees are some combination of Beathard, Young and Brandt. While he’s certainly a polarizing figure, I’m surprised that Art Modell didn’t make Peter King’s list of top 10 contenders.
I really think 2018 will be key for Kramer, Robinson, and Howley as with two slots that year if none of them get in over choosing more recent additions to the seniors pool it will be clear how the committee feels about them
Jerry Jones and former NFL commish Paul Tagliabue selected as Contributor Finalists for PFHOF17
I think these will be roundly criticized choices. I’m clearly not a fan given that neither were in five shoe-ins. I actually think this will undermine the contributors category going forward. Jones is pretty divisive candidate, and his role as mediocre GM will have to be taking into consideration. Tagliabue looks better all the time given Goodell’s performance. That said, all these two ever did is bring more money into the NFL. Personally, I think that has had a negative effect on the league.
shaking my head at jj and pt would have rather gone with beathard brandt young or pat bowlen
Appears the committee mistook “influence” for “good influence.”
Rasputin: Good comments on Talk of Fame Network. Couldn’t agree more.
Most Likley Justin and i could not agree more on what rasputin said onf talk of fame network
The NFL has grown in interest and global reach since 1989 and both JJ and PT played major roles with expansion, TV contacts and media, stadiums, etc….. There is more interest and attention to the league, teams and players, again not want we think of in terms what coaches and players give to the game but that is the reason they are “contributors”. But I agree the discussion and debates in the room around these two will be interesting, hopefully not impact the continuation of the contributors beyond 2019 (as should still be one slot for a contributor beyond), and that a number of GMs or scouts that have been mentioned as in the mix would have been better selections. But the 9 member subcommittee on contributors clearly feels differently and that they can make a strong case for the two of them.
With the senior and contributor nominees now being discussed in other threads, I thought I would post the top 20 LB’s from my analysis. This was the first year I attempted this position, and it took quite a few tweaks to get to a list I think looks…just okay. I don’t think this position has nearly the same depth I thought it did, and my criteria seems like it could still use some work.
1. Zach Thomas
2. Karl Mecklenburg
3. Cornelius Bennett
4. Joey Porter
5. Pat Swilling
6. Wilber Marshall
7. James Farrior
8. Seth Joyner
9. Sam Mills
10. Tedy Bruschi
11. Hardy Nickerson
12. Greg Lloyd
13. Keith Bulluck
14. Clay Matthews
15. Adalius Thomas
16. Mike Vrabel
17. Levon Kirkland
18. Julian Peterson
19. Jessie Armstead
20. Bill Romanowski
I think the top 5 pretty much line up with my subjective top 5, but the rest seems a little random. Guys like Matthews, Mills and Nickerson should all be a bit higher, and the list is littered with guys that had low Pro Bowls, but had good team success, played on good defenses and produced good counting stats.
One of the biggest issues with this position is that the Pro Bowls don’t always seem to be justified or driven by the stats. Guys like Chris Spielman, Al Wilson, John Offerdahl, Vaughan Johnson and Ken Harvey all made at least 4 Pro Bowls, but also had very little else to help their cause numbers-wise. As a result, all of them finished outside the top 20. Ken Harvey in particular was the best player I looked at by far that never appeared in a playoff game. Team success is only part of the criteria, but it’s hard to overcome something that extreme.
I think you could probably make a case for 9 guys on this list (the top 5, along with Mills, Nickerson, Lloyd and Matthews), but everybody else would be a “no” for me.
Here is how I would weigh the chances of the likely top ten modern candidates for election in 2017:
Don Coryell- 60%
Terrell Davis- 60%
Alan Faneca- 40%
Edgerrin James- 30%
Joe Jacoby-70%
John Lynch- 70%
Terrell Owens- 40%
LaDainian Tomlinson-100%
Jason Taylor- 40%
Kurt Warner-80%
Paul, well done. However, I think you are leaving out a likely top ten modern candidate: Brian Dawkins. Dawkins career numbers and awards are: weighted AV: 101 (111th since 1960), 9 pro bowls, 4 all pros, 2000 all decade team, 37 INTs, 513 return yds, 2 TDs, 26 sacks, 36 FF, 19 FR.
As comparison, here are those numbers again along with three contemporaries’ stats:
Dawkins: 101 (111th), 9/4/2000s, 37 INTs / 513 yrds / 2 tds, 26 sacks, 36 FF / 19 FR
Safety A: 106 (79th), 9/5/2000s, 64 / 1590 / 7, 6 sacks, 11 FF / 13 FR
Safety B: 90 (220th), 9/2/none, 26 / 204 / 0, 13 sacks, 16 FF / 9 FR
Safety C: 94 (186th), 8/4/2000s, 32 / 398 / 3, 12 sacks, 14 FF/ 7 FR
Of course, Safety A is Ed Reed – always the outlier. In my opinion, no question the greatest safety of all time. Although it is interesting how much more physical Dawkins was with 26 sacks and 36 forced fumbles compared to 6 and 11 for Reed.
Safety B is John Lynch, who is appreciably worse than Dawkins in every single category.
Safety C is Troy Polamalu who I think most people consider a lock for the HOF, but in reality is much closer to Lynch than Dawkins.
In short, Dawkins should at least be on your list, and in my opinion should be the first first-ballot HOF safety since Lott (and yes, Lott was a safety much longer than he was a CB).
Dawkins could very well make top ten, but sometimes it is hard to predict which first timers make it that far and we already have two returning Safeties from 2016 final 15, with Lynch returning from the final 10 in 2016. Given the history of how the PFHOF voters have treated that position, hard to say how all three will be viewed and whether Dawkins gets that far in year one, especially with Lynch advancing to the final 10 for the first time in 2016, an apparent indication of support by the PFHOF voters. I do think Dawkins makes the final 15, beyond that we will have to see. It would be much more clearer if there as a straight path to election for Safeties, but as will all know and have discussed on this form, that simply does not exist and thus clouds the issue.
Plus the final ten is of course not just about the Safety position, but all the orders, and although it is possible Dawkins jumps Lynch and gets into the final 10 there may also be some voting spitting among the voters when it comes to the Safety position and perhaps some degree to favoritism towards Lynch as a long standing finalist and one who has been positioned for election sooner.
Paul: All good points. My hope is that the PFHOF voters weighs the Safety candidates objectively, which should result in Dawkins clearly being favored over Lynch and Atwater. For completeness’s sake, the following are the same stats for Atwater, who is a distant last among the safeties I have reviewed, and Easley:
Atwater: 79 (377th), 8/2/1990s, 24 INTs / 408 / 1, 5 sacks, 6 FF / 8 FR
Easley: 60 (932nd)*, 5/3/1980s, 32 INTs / 538 / 3, 8 sacks, 0 FF / 11 FR
* Easley’s weighted AV suffers from his short career and therefore should be taken with a wheelbarrow full of salt. Conversely, Easley’s 5/3/1980s and 32 INTs are incredible for a seven year career.
Perhaps I am missing it but my sense is that PFHOF voters are not going to view Dawkins as a 1st time HOFer. Yes he deserves to get in (as do Lynch and Atwater), but until I see more progress on considering Safeties (Easley as senior candidate may force that discussion onto the full selection committee) I think Dawkins may wait and perhaps Lynch gets in next only because he has already advanced into the final 10. With 3 likely offensive players representing high profile HOF positions in LT, Warner, and Jacoby, voters will be looking at Lynch, Dawkins and perhaps even Jason Taylor to level out with some defense, and with Easley. Given how the voters have treated the Safety position would they elect two, including a first time modern in Dawkins – I am not so sure.
Agreed with Paul. The only safety I see with first ballot possibilities is Ed Lynch, who may jump the line his first year. The rest will likely go in order they’ve been finalists, probably Lynch, Atwater, Dawkins, and Polamalu. They finally broke the WR logjam more or less this way (though Carter went ahead of Reed) with Brown following, and am guessing that’s likely to happen with the safeties. If they do this, there will even be time to get Leroy Butler and Darren Woodson in since they have a lot of eligibility left. Hope so.
ed lynch? dont you mean ed reed
Yup, meant Ed Reed. My bad.
What about the QB “logjam”? Won’t be much of a jam, but QBs who have played in early to mid 2000s and several are still active , the list seems to be building. McNabb I see as a senior nominee type. But, Phillip Rivers is not declining a whole lot. He could very well get to 400 TDs, 50, 000 yards. To me that would be very hard to deny HOF enshrinement. Carson Palmer also is approaching 300 TDs, he’ll at very least make the ballot (Somehow Doug Flutie made it this year). Anyway, I think we all agree Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers (with another 3-4 seasons of play) are first ballot HOFers. Big Ben and Eli are HOFers but probably 7-8th ballot. I would induct Ben before Eli though. Rivers has by far the best resume besides the ones I mentioned(I will say his resume for regular season is better than Big Ben and Eli, but those guys beat him with playoff success). Romo I thought could get in at one point, but he keeps getting hurt. I hope he can still play, but the HOF ship may have sailed Warner is going to most likely make it this year.
I agree that Dawkins will be a finalist, but won’t be inducted this year…the voters are locked in on Lynch regardless of whether he’s the best safety candidate. I think it’ll be interesting to see if Dawkins leapfrogs Atwater though. My gut says that he will, and that may pose an issue for Atwater getting in before his eligibility is up in the modern era vote. At the very least, I think we’ll see Lynch, Dawkins and Reed be inducted in the next 4-5 classes. Whether they lock in on Polamalu or Atwater after that will be the deciding factor.
As for LeRoy Butler and Darren Woodson, they absolutely deserve to be inducted, but I just don’t know if there’s enough time for them to gain momentum. In addition to Reed and Polamalu, Ronde Barber, Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson are hitting the ballot over the next few years, and Ty Law also already seems entrenched ahead of them. One guy that never gets mentioned, but also belongs in the conversation as far as I’m concerned is Carnell Lake. However, he’s likely last in line behind all of the guys already mentioned, and will almost certainly fall into the seniors pool.
As for the QB’s, I’d be really surprised if Warner doesn’t get in this year. He’s a guy that I wasn’t real big on at first glance, but once I really delved into his numbers it was clear that he’s well ahead of the rest of the eligible QB’s in the modern vote. I hope McNabb gets a chance some day, but he may fall into a similar spot as guys like Esiason and Cunningham, where the hall passes over them because there are already so many of their peers inducted.
When it comes to the other 2000’s/2010’s QB’s after Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees and Rodgers, I think Roethlisberger and Eli Manning are next in line. I don’t know if either guy will be first ballot, but they both have 2 Super Bowl wins and over 100 regular season wins. They are getting in even if their Pro Bowl totals are low. Rivers to me is where the line is, but I think he ultimately gets in as well due to his counting stats, 5 Pro Bowls and (likely, since he’s at 93 now) 100 regular season wins. Palmer and Romo are no’s for me. They both seem to have a worse version of Rivers’ case, so I can’t see them getting more than a preliminary nomination.
One final note on QB’s, if this truly is the “Pro” Football Hall of Fame, then it makes perfect sense that Flutie made the ballot. I highly doubt that many of the posters on here have ever watched the CFL, but growing up just west of Toronto, I watched a ton of it in the 90’s and actually preferred it to the NFL for time. Flutie was absolutely incredible in the league…and I mean Peyton Manning playing in a high school football game good. While he didn’t have a ton of success in the NFL, he is arguably the best player in CFL history.
While it seems unlikely that the hall will ever strongly consider a player who had their most success in a pro league outside the NFL, I’d love to see them some day consider Flutie, or even someone like Herschel Walker more strongly due to their overall success acrss all pro leagues.
In some ways though, I wonder if this has been factor in the hall’s decision to induct Moon (CFL) on the first ballot, Warner (Arena League) almost getting an immediate induction, or even a guy like Sam Mills (USFL) climbing to the semifinalist stage.
Also realized that I never posted my DB list from the analysis I did…this might be a good time to do it since we are already talking about Dawkins/Lynch/Atwater
1. Brian Dawkins
2. Joey Browner
3. Steve Atwater
4. Carnell Lake
5. LeRoy Butler
6. Darren Woodson
7. John Lynch
8. Darren Sharper
9. Eric Allen
10. Tim McDonald
11. Ty Law
12. Albert Lewis
13. Dave Duerson
14. Everson Walls
15. Rodney Harrison
16. Sam Madison
17. Nick Collins
18. Chris McAlister
19. Dennis Smith
20. Troy Vincent
At least from my (probably statistically incorrect) analysis, Dawkins comes out on top, Browner’s high position is heavily influenced by the fact that he’s by far the best DB candidate left from the 80’s that’s still in the modern pool, and Atwater comes in a few spots ahead of Lynch.
A couple of other things to note:
-This is pretty solid evidence that the hall has some work to do on safeties as the top 8 are all from that position. These top 8 by the way were pretty close together in the point system I use to rank them, and very far ahead of everybody else, indicating that they all deserve induction eventually.
-If I have seemed not excited about Lynch or Law in the past, this is why…they only come in at 7th and 11th.
-I’m not overly crazy about the chances of any of the CB’s currently eligible. The only two I would probably vouch for are Law and Allen.
-I was kind of surprised that Dennis Smith and Troy Vincent were so low on the list…they were part of the reason I posted the top 20.
Darren Woodson’s and Leroy Butler’s last eligible years are 2028 and 2026, so they have a while left. It will likely be towards the end of their candidacies, but it’s by no means impossible they get in. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Ronde Barber wait a good while, though he’s not even eligible yet. Ty Law probably waits a while as well. Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey likely won’t wait that long but I doubt they’re necessarily first ballot. And Steve Atwater just broke through into the finals with a last eligible year of 2024, so am thinking he’ll make it in. Don’t see a good case for Carnell Lake (2/4/90s), and will be surprised if he’s elected.
BSLO I like your list but personally I would put Eugene Robinson over Nick Collins. While Nick’s prime was better, Eugene played 16 seasons, 5 seasons of 5 or more ints, including 9 in one which led the league. 1/3/ none is not strong, but Pro football reference has him om their all decade team of the 90s.
bachslunch – I think that Reed, Bailey and Charles Woodson will be first-ballot inductees. I could be acting overly optimistic there, but CB’s typically have an easier time, and Bailey and C. Woodson have absolutely outstanding resumes across the board. I haven’t had a chance to look closely at Barber yet, but my gut feeling is that he had a better career than Ty Law. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him jump right onto the semifinalist list on the first ballot next year.
With Butler and Darren Woodson, it will really come down to how committed he hall is to inducting DB’s over the next 10 years. I think they would need to be inducting around one per year in order for those two to reach the top of the DB queue. That said, I didn’t see the late resurgence for Joe Jacoby coming, so as you said it’s definitely possible. I would love to see both guys get in.
Carnell Lake is definitely someone who will be waiting until the senior pool. but his resume is pretty solid. He made 5 Pro Bowls (and at 3 different positions, which is impressive), 1 AP 1st All-Pro Team, and 3 AP 2nd All-Pro teams. As you mentioned, he also made the 90’s all-decade team, and he also was recognized by lesser All-Pro teams in 3 additional years of his career. His INT numbers are low, but his sack, forced fumble and fumbles recovered stats are pretty solid for a DB. He also played on consistently good defenses (especially against the pass), which were at least in part due to his efforts. Not saying he’s a great candidate, but as a legitimately deserving all-decade player he deserves to get considered at some point.
Brad – Eugene Robinson ended up finishing 25th in the ranking if you are curious. His counting stats are fantastic across the board, and his Super Bowl ring is also a plus, but ultimately as you mentioned it’s his post-season awards that hold him back. 3 Pro Bowls, 1 2nd All-Pro Team (1993), and only one other year with any All-Pro recognition (1998) is pretty weak, and puts him closer to Brock Marion or Mark Carrier than it does to even Rodney Harrison or Dennis Smith. His long career is both good and bad for his case, as his longevity is impressive, but it also makes him a peer to just about every modern-era eligible player, and as a result he gets viewed as a weaker peer to both guys like Joey Browner and Ronde Barber. I admittedly didn’t use the PFR all-decade teams in my analysis since it isn’t an official award/recognition source, but it’s something am considering for next year. I do think that Darren Woodson or Robinson would have made a better choice than Ronnie Lott on the 90’s team.
Nick Collins was a big surprise at 17, especially in the sense that he finished higher than another short-career guy in Bob Sanders (who was 23rd). However, I expect him to drop a fair bit once more of his peers become eligible.
For completeness sake, I’ll also post the top 5 in K and P rankings from my analysis:
Kicker
1. Morten Andersen
2. Gary Anderson
3. Matt Stover
4. Jason Elam
5. Nick Lowery
Punter
1. Sean Landeta
2. Rohn Stark
3. Todd Sauerbrun
4. Reggie Roby
5. Jeff Feagles
The only guys I would consider from either list are Andersen, Anderson and Landeta since they all made 2 All-Decade teams. Sadly though, I doubt any of the three besides Morten Andersen will even get a sniff on the modern-era ballot.
I’ll do one for RBs
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Edgerrin James
3.Terrell Davis
4. Roger Craig
5. Shaun Alexander
6. Corey Dillon
7. Ricky Watters
8.Priest Holmes
9. Herschel Walker
10. Tiki Barber
11 Jamal Lewis
12. Clinton Portis
13. Fred Taylor
14. Warrick Dunn
15.Eddie George
16. OJ Anderson
17. Ricky Williams
18. Ahman Green
19. Gerald Riggs
20. Thomas Jones
I think that’s a pretty good list Brad. All 20 (save for Riggs who as of this year is now into the senior’s pool) were in my top 25. The only recently retired player in my top 20 that was missing from yours was Brian Westbrook, but I think he was 20th, so not really a stretch to see him missing.
My only overall comment is that there are some pretty good late 80’s/early 90’s RB’s missing from your list, like James Brooks and Neal Anderson who both made 4 Pro Bowls. Freeman McNeil, and Earnest Byner are also guys that made my top 20. but they were also toward the bottom, and I think the 11-25 best RB’s are pretty much interchangeable. Beyond the obvious top 4 (LT, Edge, TD and Craig), I think the only guys that might get considered at some point are OJ Anderson (because of where he finished on the all-time rushing lists), Watters (if they go for another 90’s RB), Barber (high peak, excellent dual threat), Alexander (very high peak, lots of TD’s), and Priest Holmes (excellent dual threat, maybe the highest peak of all three).
Yea I didn’t really check Riggs’ eligibility. Sorry for that. But, 10-20 was tough to put in some kind of order. Eddie George would be #11-12 if he didn’t avg 3.6 ypc. Rather low. Ill do one for QBs
This one is going to be tough after top 6. Names you would never think will make it.
1. Kurt Warner
2. Donovan McNabb
3. Boomer Esiason
4. Randall Cunningham
5. Steve McNair
6. Phil Simms
7. Rich Gannon
8. David Krieg
9. Drew Bledsoe
10. Vinny Testaverde
11. Daunte Culpepper
12. Jim Everett
13. Jeff Garcia
14. Trent Green
15.Mark Brunell
16. Kerry Collins
17. Steve DeBerg
18. Jake Plummer
19. Chad Pennington
20. Jeff George
Again after top 6 It was beyond difficult to fill the list. A lot of interchangeable players I’ll probably get flack for putting Pennington on it but he led NFL in passer rating in 2002, won the division 2x (2002 for Jets and 2008 for dolphins. It is mostly a Patriots division to win), 2nd comp % for career, 2x CPOY, and NFL MVP runner up in 2008, behind Peyton.
I know people won’t like Flutie not on it but I am basing it on NFL, not including CFL. Otherwise, he’d easily be in top 3-4.
BSLO I think Morten gets in “soon”. Just need to clear up the WR and DB logjams then there will be slots open for him.
I think Nick Lowrey is too low on the PK list and should be absolutely no lower than 3rd. Have seen a couple lists for FG pct. adjusted for era, and in all of them Lowrey ranks with Stemerud, Andersen, and Anderson (and if they go back far enough to include all of his career, Groza) in elite territory. (If memory serves, one listing has Jason Hansen Iwth them). Stover ranks lower, with players such as Moseley, Yepremian, Bakken, and Murray ahead of him.
Now I’ll do one for WRs
1. Terrell Owens
2. Torry Holt
3. Isaac Bruce
4.Hines Ward
5. Henry Ellard
6.Chad Johnson
7.Mark Clayton
8. Rod Smith
9. Jimmy Smith
10. Andre Rison
11.Stanley Morgan
12 Derrick Mason
13. Gary Clark
14. Irving Fryar
15. Keyshawn Johnson
16. Muhsin Muhammad
17. Keenan McCardell
18. Anthony Miller
19.Joey Galloway
20.Roy Green(playing DB kind of helps his candidacy)
Like every list top 5-6 legit contenders; then 7-20 are anyone’s guess. If TO not elected this year Randy Moss will take over #1 spot, TO 2 for next year. And this list will look much different in 5-10 years when other WRs will retire / become eligible. Just think no Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, and Andre J and Fitz will retire in next year or two most likely so they’ll be in top 5-6.
Wow Matt Ryan had 503 yards 4 TDs 1 int and Julio Jones. 300 yards on 12 receptions 1 TD today. Id think the latter has a better shot for HOF due to the face he has been named AP but don’t sleep quite yet on Matty Ice. He is on pace to pass for 5,880 yards this year, an NFL record. Ok you can say today was on outlier but prior to today he was on pace for 5,168. Overall on pace for (including today) 5,880 yards, 44TDs, and 8 ints. It will be interesting how he fairs next 4-5 seasons. Do the math, he could realistically get to 50,000 passing yards when he retires.
fact* not face
Brad,
Before today’s game I already had Matt Ryan projected in the 55,000 to 65. 000 yards range in his career when he retires. As far as today’s game goes, there is a reason draftcountdown.com before today’s game had the Panthers drafting defensive player. This is a team that is missing Josh Norman pretty bad. I am sure Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr are licking their chops at the Panthers Secondary.
Matt Ryan going into this season had 5 straight 4,000 yard seasons. The fact Matt now has over 34,000 yards after today’s game at the age of 31 speaks he’s going get 50,000 yards during the 2020 season.
The issue with Matt always been his touchdown numbers in terms of where he’s going to being Inducted from an NFL ballot standpoint. What Matt is doing this year for touchdown is the exception to the rule for him. He is usually doesn’t get over 30 touchdowns a season passing and only has 1 season with over 30 touchdown passes in a season before this season..
Matt does have 213 touchdown passes in his NFL career after today’s game, but he’s a player I don’t project getting 300 touchdown passes before turns 34 years old. Matt Ryan is usually a 20 to 29 touchdowns in a season type quarterback.
Packerfan4ever my point is, Matt Ryan will have a hard resume to pass up, especially if you project him getting to 55k-65k. Also, his comp % is very good. I just think he could be a potential HOFer given the pace he is at.
I wonder whether ten years from now PFHOF voters will view QBs with 40,000+ passing yards, 300+ TDs under the same lens as 1,000 receptions for WRs, and 10,000 yards for RB today – in that they will be all too common and with the explosion of offense numbers in this era those QBs (like the WRs and RBs) be evaluated by a different standard and those levels of career numbers no longer sufficient for ease of election??
I think the new “3000 hits” which in MLB pretty much seals an enshrinement for QBs today is 60k and 400 TDs.
Frank Gore now in top 10 for rushing yards all time. 2 years ago I didn’t think he was serious HOF contender. Today I think he is. End of 2014 he was 20th all time. He was closer to Lewis, Jones, Dunn, etc than to Smith, Sanders, Payton, Martin. He definitely needed to separate himself from the pack. Which he did. He just needs 20 more to move in 9th ahead of Jim Brown and 447 to be ahead of Tony Dorsett for 8th. I expect that to happen. If, a big one, but if he plays one more season after this one he could pass Eric Dickerson for 7th all time in rushing. Steven Jackson imo is now behind Frank Gore in pecking order for RBs. 0/5/none isn’t strong but better than 0/2/none. Frank is 33 and is on pace for an 1,000 yard season. Impressive stuff.
Anyone here think Steve Tasker will ever get into the HOF?
I don’t really think that there are statistical benchmarks when it comes to QB’s. It generally comes down to Pro Bowls, Super Bowls and MVP awards. I can’t really off the top of my head think of any QB that strictly made it in because of their stats.
I could see Tasker getting in through the senior committee like Ray Guy. He was too much of an important player to be ignored, but he is too easy to pass over in the modern-era vote.
bachslunch – You brought up a great point about Lowery. I agree that he’s the 3rd best kicker that’s eligible (up until Elam and Stover became eligible, he was 3rd), and it was indeed his FG percentage within his time that stood out when I ran his numbers. One thing I’ve noticed with the kickers is that the ranking I end up with tends to really skew toward recently retired players, and I think it’s due to the FG%’s being so much better over the past 10 or so years. I will likely see if I can tweak something to make Lowery’s position improve when I run my Excel rankings again next year.
I do not think Tasker will ever get into the PFHOF. When he does end up in the seniors candidate pool he will have to complete with many full time regular players who are all decade team members who are more deserving of election.
When Nick Lowery retired after the 1996 season he was ranked number 2 all-time in points scored (1,711) behind George Blanda, and broke Jan Stenerud’s record for career field goals (383). Lowery is also the most accurate kicker in league history of anyone who retired before the end of the 20th century.
Nick would go in as a Chief, but as a Jet fan I’d like to see him in. Jets are well underrepresented in the HOF. Joe Klecko, Mark Gastineau, Winston Hill, and Larry Grantham should be in and to a lesser degree Marvin Powell and Art Powell (probably would go in as a Raider, but had great seasons with NY Titans/Jets).
I also think John Abraham deserves consideration. I have a feeling he won’t get in, but he should be.
I forgot Sterling Sharpe on my list. I would put him #4-5. I think he is a Senior Nominee type.
Frank Gore moves into 9th all time in rushing yards. What are people on here their opinions on his HOF stock?
Frank Gore is going to get in, but I see him wait 2 to 5 years because on pace for 13,000 yards in his career. Any running back that gets 13.000 yards in their career is going to get inducted because no running back is going hit the 13,000 yards rushing mark for a career in a long time due to the NFL being a passing league.
Frank Gore doesn’t have any first team all pro teams and not being on an all decade team and that is going to prevent him from being a first ballot hall of fame player.
The one thing about Frank is he has a career rushing average of 4.4 yards per carry and is something the voters will like besides him passing Jim Brown and being on pace for over 13,000 yards rushing for his nfl career.
His current 0(1)/5 profile is pretty weak PFHOF quality, at age 33 unless he puts together some monster seasons (All Pro worthy) and/or significant post season success and awards, or makes the 2010s all decade team, I think he will fall deep into the seniors pool at best.
the question i must ask is why does paul have high standards for the hof
I don’t agree Paul. If he was 13-14th all time you have a case but 9th all time is too high not to enshrine. Remember he gets 20 years I believe of eligibility. It might take him on one of his last ballots but I think he gets in before Senior Nominee.
1. Emmitt Smith+
2 Walter Payton+
3 Barry Sanders+
4 Curtis Martin+
5 LaDainian Tomlinson
6 Jerome Bettis+
7 Eric Dickerson+
8 Tony Dorsett+
9 Frank Gore
10 Jim Brown+
11 Marshall Faulk+
12 Edgerrin James
13 Marcus Allen+
14 Franco Harris+
15 Thurman Thomas+
16 Adrian Peterson
I’m sure we all are familiar with Pro Football Reference that “+” means they are in the HOF. AP, Edge, and LT are shoe ins either this year(LT), next 2-3 seasons (Edge), and AP five years after he retires. How can you not put Frank in? It’a not like it’s such a deep era of RBs either, unlike QBs. Edge is 6 years removed, LT five years. For the 2000s-10s era Lynch has a case but I would put Alexander over him, who is eligible. AP no brainer first ballot, outside of him , Chris Johnson is 2nd in active rushing yards for career;he is 32nd all time , Gore 9th. Big drop off. I do not see Frank being past up.
I have to disagree with Paul. Frank Gore doesn’t have the profile you want, but he’s only 632 yards away from getting 13,000 rushing yards in his career. That isn’t a problem since Frank right now is average over 65 yards per game this season at the age of 33. Frank Gore also is going to pass Tony Dorsett this season before he reaches 13,000 yards.
Getting over 13,000 rushing yards for a running back is an elite club
The other thing is right now, Frank want to play in 2017 according to Peter King. Frank could end with more rushing yards than Eric Dickerson, Jerome Bettis, and LaDainian Tomlinson.
I do not think it is that I am hard but that the PFHOF standard should be high and given the history of voting many of the voters support a high standard and if a player lacks some key career achievements, such as All Pro team membership, then their chances are going to be reduced significantly. When we have all decade team members in the seniors pool is shows how hard it can be to get in the PFHOF as a modern if you lack some major accomplishment. Also hard to consider a player without taking into account not just the strength of competition from peers at his positions (how many RBs from this era, 4? 6? etc…). but that every player is also competing against players of other positions that may be more qualified. And with only maximum of 5 modern slots open each year, I can see why a player like Gore may have a long wait, and the longer wait only pushes him further out of consideration and closer to the seniors pool. Perhaps Gore does get in as a modern, but when we see all decade players that after years on the modern ballot end up as seniors I can easily envision such a path for Gore, maybe not but given past voting history it is a real possibility.
As far as All Decade Team, which Senior Nominees were you thinking of? I’ll start with 1950s. Alan Ameche,2/4, 1 rushing title perhaps HOF worthy but he played 6 seasons. Unless he had more AP seasons like Gale Sayers I see why he never got in.
Bobby Walston 0/2, 2 FG % titles. He has a case for being a two way player, but no 1st team all pros and just 2 PBs is just a tad too low.
Dick Barwegan 5/4. He has a case for sure. I would say he is worthy, but he had a short career. As we know voters tend to shy away from players who played 9 or less seasons.
Joe Fortunato 3/5, semi long career. He is also worthy. But, I don’t know how he made the 50s ADT. He and Dick have caess, but as I mentioned Dick had a short career and Joe didn’t exactly deserve 50s ADT honors.
60s ADT
John David Crow: Years ago on this blog I lobbied for him due to his versatility. His profile of 2/4 is not bad. But, only 1 season of 1,000 yards rushing. 44 fumbles on 1,428 touches isn’t that great. But again, I still think he has a case.
Del Shofner: 5/5, 18 ypr. I do think he deserves to be in. Of course there are those on ADTs that deserve to be in the HOF. It’s a numbers game to why they are not inducted.
Gary Collin Another I made a case for based on his receiving and punting skills, but 2/2 is a little light.
Boyd Dowler 0/2 is not enough. Good career, but not a great one.
Ralph Neely: 3/2 for an O Linemen is not really enough.
Jerry Kramer of course he should be in. We all know that.
Howard Mudd too short of a carer to be in. Maybe could go in as a contributor being that he had a long coaching career.
Alex Karras Another guy who should be in.
Larry Morris 0/0. Enough said
Tommy Nobis same boat as Kramer and Karras.
Bobby Boys 5/2 is good. Has a case.
Ed Meador also deserves to be in.
So you can see ,yes there are those who deserve to be in ; we all know that; but, voters today will not make the mistakes voters did back then (at least I hope not). TD back then would have had to wait until Senior Nominee. I think he gets in this year if not 2018. Frank Gore has a lesser profile no doubt, but longevity , especially for an every down RB means a lot. As packerfan4ever stated, he might get to 13k . Hard to not put him in on Modern Era ballot. And when he is eligible, TD and Edge will be in. He won’t have a lot of competition. Shaun Alexander is the biggest threat. AP when he is done will get in on first ballot so he will waste a year of Gore’s chances. 0/5/none I know on the surface isn’t strong, but John Henry Johnson is in with a 0/4/none even though via senior nominee. But Gore is in the top 9, while John was 6th all time at the time of retirement, but since his time teams started to run a lot with RBs rather than share the load. A lot of guys in John’s era would have similar numbers if they were fed the ball like he was.
I agree with Paul. Barring a late career re-evaluation, Frank Gore is going to have a very hard time getting into the HOF. It isn’t unprecedented or impossible for that late career re-evaluation to occur. John Riggins received much more adulation at the end of his career because the Redskins started winning, even though he was basically doing what he had always done. If anything, Riggins’s yards per carrier were down, even though his rushing total was up.
To a less extent, the same thing happened to Curtis Martin as fans and media members realized that his classy career was coming to a close and his career rushing total kept rising. In the end, Martin is in the HOF because he was durable and ended with huge numbers (I supported him, but I think he is a somewhat closer case than many others seemed to believe).
That said, Frank Gore is unlikely to either win a Super Bowl or suddenly develop the personal charisma of John Riggins. It also seems unlikely (although not impossible) that Gore makes the top five in rushing or that he receives the same attention the retiring Martin received from the East Coast media.
instead, Gore is going to go down in history as a very steady back, who did his job unspectacularly for both horrible and above average teams in an era when the running game severely declined in importance. He never had a peak as high as TD, LT, or AP. And he never had signature plays like Marshawn Lynch or Marshall Faulk.
In fact, the best comparison might be Shawn Alexander. As someone said on this board years ago, Shawn Alexander is going to be the Bert Blyleven of running backs. His analytics are going to make him out to be a much better player than the eye test says he was. Alexander was a very good, durable back who played behind fantastic lines (likely to produce two HOFers), and as a result racked up huge numbers for a relatively short period of time. But Alexander was not a game-changer. He was Edge without the first two years of utter dominance and brillance. My guess is that Gore has a shot at the HOF, but it will require him making the top five in rushing (and/or garnering end of career and post career accolades that have so far eluded him). \
By the way, I’m not so sure Edge is a lock for the HOF. He was unquestionably one of the most excited and fun backs in NFL history during his first two years. His injury, however, robbed him of something that is hard to describe or quantify. He was still a good back when he returned, but he was never the great back he was at first (and, yes, I know his numbers increased to near pre-injury levels his last two years in Indy, but a large part of that was Peyton Manning developing into Peyton Manning). Is his career enough to get him in the HOF? I’m actually torn. I want to say yes, for the same reasons I support TD (and Earl Campbell and Eric Dickerson), but for some reason, something is holding me back.
We are starting to see All Decade team members from the 1970s and 1980s getting into the PFHOF as seniors, and as along as there are only 5 modern slots available chances remain that not all of the all decade team members from the 1990s and 2000s will get in as modern candidates, plus other deserving players from that era like Gore. I also think as Justin pointed out we are already getting a group of recent RBs increasing in number on the modern ballot who have similar accomplishments, perhaps a logjam of uncertainty in how to evaluate their individual careers is a going to be a factor. And I wonder with the ncreased focus on the passing offenses of recent eras, whether PFHOF voters in the future are going to dismiss RBs in favor of more QBs, WRs and even TEs from the eras those RBs come from. Certainly the 2000s and 2010s will see their fair share of RBs, perhaps 2-4, but maybe voters will see that as enough especially if their focus shifts to feeling that 6-8+ QBs, 6-8WRs, 3-4 TEs should be represented from those decades. Just an observation.
Justin. Edge is a lock. Two rushing titles, 12k in yards, first team All decade, 3/4, 4 seasons of 1,500 rushing yards, off top of my head I think Smith, Barry, Dickerson, and Payton have done that. Pretty elite company. Also, he has playoff success, 13 games played and started. A shame he wasn’t on the 2006 Colts who won the SB. He definitely contributed to their success prior to. I will guarantee he will be a finalist in 2-3 years. LT and TD will both most likely in by 2018 and no other RB rivals his resume except Alexander, but he will have to wait due to not having 10k yards on the ground.
Brad: According to pro-football-reference, James is 1/4/2000s. Still good, but not 3/4/2000 good. He has been a finalist already, but he didn’t advance out of the first 15. I agree that there will not be any rb competition for a while, but that is because the position is less important today than ever before and the number of HOF RBs is already inflated. As I have said many times on this board, I believe there will be an adjustment in future years away from inducted RBs with WRs and TEs being the beneficiaries. That said, James was very special for a brief time and very good for much longer. His induction, however, does not seem automatic to me and I can’t bring myself to call his exclusion a travesty. We’ll see what the future holds, but I would not be surprised if he is still on the ballot in 3 years.
This is what I am going by. Associated Press all pro yes you’re right, but people use other AP selections.
Year Tm Level Voters
1999 1st Team All-Conf Pro Football Weekly
1999 1st Team All-NFL Associated Press
1999 1st Team All-NFL Pro Football Writers
1999 1st Team All-NFL Sporting News
2000 1st Team All-Conf Pro Football Weekly
2000 2nd Team All-NFL Associated Press
2000 1st Team All-NFL Sporting News
2004 1st Team All-Conf Pro Football Weekly
2004 2nd Team All-NFL Associated Press
2004 1st Team All-NFL Sporting News
2005 1st Team All-Conf Pro Football Weekly
I agree he might be still on the ballot in 2019-2020 but he has eligibility through the 2020s and if not mistaken he is eligible through 2034. No way he gets to Senior Nominee. Frank Gore same thing, but I’d take Edge all day over Gore. Frank will benefit from Edge, LT, and TD most likely inducted before he makes the ballot. It will be interesting how it shapes up.
I think both Edgerrin James and Frank Gore get in, though both will likely wait a while. James has already been a finalist, and both he and Gore got past the 12K mark for lifetime rushing yards — and historically that’s been good enough to get RBs in. Gore is already 9th lifetime and has a good chance to move up the list further. In some ways, Jerome Bettis being elected despite never really being the best RB in a season bodes well for Gore. IOW, being a compiler RB will get you in if you compile enough yards. It will also help that no other RB except maybe Adrian Peterson (who’s getting in regardless) will likely approach Gore’s career numbers anytime in the foreseeable future.
I’ve gone back and forth on Gore, but I think he’ll make it in during the modern era vote. There have been some excellent points raised, so I can’t really say much that hasn’t already been said. I think it boils down to 2 things though:
1. Lack of future competition at the RB position – LT is getting in this year, and TD won’t be far behind. I don’t really think Edge is in for a long wait either. He’s already a finalist two years in, and he seems to have quite a bit of support in the media. I think he waits a max of 5 more years. Add in the bonus that Roger Craig and OJ Anderson (another big compiler with otherwise questionable credentials like Gore) will fall off the ballot over the next 2 years, and you have the deck mostly cleared at the top of the position by the time Gore becomes eligible. I’m not sure yet how he would compare to the next stiffest competition like Watters, Barber and Alexander, but I think I’d personally place him above those three.
2. His counting stats are likely to stand the test of time – While passing and receiving yard totals continue to explode, rushing yard totals have stayed much more steady over the past 10 years. The de-emphasis on feature backs, and the shrinking career lengths of running backs have made even the top 20 rushing yards list difficult to penetrate. in contrast to say Hines Ward or Reggie Wayne on the receptions list or Drew Bledsoe and Vinny Testaverde on the passing yards list, his rushing yard totals are likely to look just as impressive when his name comes up for consideration as they did at the time of his retirement. He’s surrounded by HOFers on the rushing list right now, and isn’t likely to be passed by any active player anytime soon. The closest threats would probably be Forte and McCoy, but neither look like lock to reach 12-13K rushing yards.
While he’s fairly borderline and will have to wait awhile, it’s hard to ignore the advantage that being “next up” at a position brings. Even if less RB’s are inducted from this era (and I think that will be the case), Frank Gore will likely be at the top of the borderline list. If TD and Edge’s voting journeys have shown anything, it’s that the voters are more than happy to advance a less qualified RB past a more qualified defensive or non-skill position offensive player.
BSLO: Great thoughts. The $20K question is whether your last thought, ” the voters are more than happy to advance a less qualified RB past a more qualified defensive or non-skill position offensive player,” remains true going forward. Something to watch.
Speaking of polarizing players as far as being HOF worthy among active, Adam Vinatieri is another. He is 13-13 this year, (5-5 from 50 or more yards). I’m a Jets fan and I could be bias against him; but, he to me, has a great HOF resume. 3/3/00s is not strong (the polarizing part), but name me a more clutch kicker. He has 2 GW SB FGs, that FG vs Raiders in snow,a total of 4 SB wins. just 241 points away from being the all time scorer. He has the most postseason points. I think only to score 1k for two different teams. 84% for career on FGs, 82% in postseason. And last three seasons he has missed a whopping 3 FGs out of 71 attempts in regular season. Seems like he will play another 1-2 years and become the all time scorer. IMO he is better than Morten Andersen. Of course having Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and now Andrew Luck helps your extra point totals, but his FG accuracy and “clutchness” has nothing to do with them. It’s all him. What do the rest of you think of him?
Also Adam I believe is only to win 4 SBs in 5 years. At least only to do so while scoring in each SB. And that won’t happen again unless a team is dominating like no other.
Sorry 4 out of 7. Missed playoffs in 2002. Maybe the 70s Steeler kicker did it but I didn’t check.
Out of 6. Oh my goodness I’m batting zero right now haha.
Not sold on Adam Vinatieri for the HoF. In Chase Stuart’s rankings for kickers adjusted for era, he comes out 50th. His FG percentage is pretty good but adjusted for era not so remarkable, plus his percentage on longer FG isn’t very special.. And while he has made a couple of “clutch” FGs in postseason, he is also, as Stuart says, “the greatest field goal kicker to miss two field goals in a Super Bowl.” I say not before Nick Lowery, Morton Andersen, and Gary Anderson.
I think with kickers it’s been pretty simple up to this point. The hall will consider you if you finish as the all-time points leader. If Vinatieri can pass Morten Andersen, he’ll get in. If not, he’s a harder sell. One thing he definitely has over the other best kickers though is playoff success. It will be interesting to see how that affects his candidacy. I think it may put him over the top.
Just to balance the scales though, I think bachslunch is being a little harsh. I know that you like Lowery, but I wouldn’t say he’s strong in the playoffs or on long FG’s either. Lowery was 8 for 12 (66.7%) in playoff FG’s, and never hit a FG longer than 38 yards. He also only hit about 45% of the his FG’s over 50 yards. I don’t know how well this adjusts to his era but this puts him behind several of the other kickers from the 80’s and early 90’s.
Vinatieri has hit about 82% of his FG’s in the playoffs, and 62% of his FG’s over 50 yards. In both cases, he’s ahead of Andersen, Anderson and Lowery and on par with the best kickers from his era that are already eligible like Elam, Stover, WIlkins and Vanderjagt. That said, once more of his peers become eligible, these stats may not look quite as good.
In the end, Vinatieri makes it because he won three Super Bowls with the Patriots. As it stands, those 3-time champions are likely to have relatively few HOFers: Belichick and Brady are locks. Law is a solid choice, but will need to get more support than he currently is. The only other player likely to get consideration is Richard Seymour (3/7/2000s), who should probably be inducted. That means a 3-time Super Bowl championship team will only have 4 Hall of Famers. Seems likely Vinatieri makes it 5. Which incidentally would equal the 1990s Cowboys: Aikman, Smith, Haley, Irvin, and Allen (although he only played on the last team). And, Darren Woodson still has a chance to make it 6. (I’m not a supporter of Jimmy Johnson, but he could also make it 6 or 7).
Chase Stuart, who did a detailed ranking of kickers adjusted for era says at the Football Perspective website:
And frankly, it’s not much of a question as to who is the best kicker ever. Until presented with evidence to the contrary, that honor belongs to Nick Lowery (you can tell him about that here). The table below shows the top field goal kickers ever; let’s walk through Lowery’s line as an example.
Lowery played from 1978 to 1996. The length of his average field goal attempt was 36.6 yards, and the length of his average made field goal was 34.8 yards. Lowery attempted 479 field goals in his career; based on the distance of those kicks and the era in which he played, we would expect an average kicker to have made about 337.6 of those attempts. Instead, Lowery made 383 of them, a whopping 45.4 field goals above expectation. Thought of another way, Lowery’s expected field goal rate was 70.5%, while his actual was 80.0%, so he was successful an extra 9.5% of the time he lined up to kick. That’s remarkable. In short, Lowery was the most valuable field goal kicker in NFL history.
Link:
http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-field-goal-kickers-of-all-time-ii-part-iii-career-rankings/
I’ve never been a fan of the idea that there ought to be some kind of correlation between team success and number of HoFers on it. Sometimes it happens, but not always. The HoF is an individual award, not a team one. In the Pats case, am thinking Belichick (immediate enshrinement) Brady (immediate), Seymour (couple years wait), and Law (several years wait) will all get in. If memory serves, Vince Wilfork was also on the last of these squads, and he has at least an outside chance of election (1/5/none) — as a Senior if at all. Especially given Belichick’s reputation for being able to plug in one player for another and still get results, that’s probably not surprising.
Backslunch: I agree in a perfect world there should be no direct correlation between team success and individual candidates making the HOF. That said, there undoubtedly is. Swann and Stallworth are in the hall because they played for the 70s Steelers. Pearson, Branch, and others with better numbers are not because they played for other teams. That is why I have always rooted and made cases for players who toiled on losing teams but were still HOFers. Guys like Cortez Kennedy, Aeneas Williams, etc. Right now, I’m starting to shift my focus to Leslie O’Neal for similar reasons.
On the other hand, it also makes sense that the best teams have the best players. In fact, one of the arguments I routinely made to Peter King was that Joe Gibbs had to be the greatest coach in NFL history. He won three Super Bowls with virtually no HOFers (at the time only Riggins). Of course, I was being facetious because of his long running opposition to Art Monk and the other great 1980s Redskins. Therefore, it reasons that multiple championship teams normally have a minimal of “x” number of HOFers. Not a hard and fast rule, but something that naturally develops. When you look at the 2000 Patriots, you are struck at how few great players they really had (similar to the 1980s 49ers), but those great players that did play for those teams are likely to get into the HOF exactly because they won so many championships. It is a feed back loop. Therefore, rightly or wrongly, it seems like a fairly safe prediction that Vinatieri (and Law and Seymour) will make the Hall.
Adam V is obviously no shoe in but I think he makes it eventually. Morten will get in on Modern Era Ballot. He was in fact a finalist first year of his eligibility if memory serves me right, so that’ll clear him from a logjam. Nick will be off the ballot by the time Adam V is eligible. How about Phillip Rivers? He just passed Dan Fouts to become Chargers all time leader in yards. He is better than a 0/5/none. He has had at least 2-3 seasons where he deserved to be a PBer. He is very accurate. Has 5 seasons including this year with a rating of 100 or more. 4k in passing yards in 7 seasons , well on his way to 8 this year. There is debate whether he sticks with Chargers in future. I’d like to see him in Green with Jets. They are in a win now mode(despite their 1-4 record. Fitz turning it over isn’t helping) They have stud WRs, good running game, and good defense(except in recent games their secondary has played awful). I think if Rivers gets to 48-50k yards, 360-385 TDs he gets in without a doubt.
Thanks for posting that link to Chase Stuart’s study bachslunch. It definitely gave me a different perspective on Vinatieri’s candidacy and a better appreciation for how good Nick Lowery was. His analysis was similar to the Wins Above Replacement stat in baseball, and his methods seem pretty solid.
After taking a long look at it though, I had to question a couple of things:
1. While I can’t say I’ve verified this numbers-wise, his rankings seem exceptionally skewed toward kickers from the mid 90’s on back. There are hardly any kickers who started heir careers after this time period near the top and most of them are grouped near the bottom. It makes me wonder whether the range of kicker FG% is much closer together in this era, thus making it harder to “outperform” your peers.
2. He fully acknowledges these limitations in his analysis, but there is no consideration for weather or game situation. I don’t know how you would possibly quantify those factors, but it’s hard not to say that guys like Jason Hanson or Mike Vanderjagt (who rank among the highest out of recent kickers) benefited from playing many of their games indoors.
3. Playoff field goals are not included. While the sample size likely wouldn’t be enough to affect anybody’s ranking, I found the exclusion of this data unusual, and Brad’s comments about “being clutch” prompted me to investigate further. I did an analysis very similar to Chase’s for playoff FG’s, grouping the years into 5-year buckets, and the distances into 5-yard buckets, and quantified “FG’s above expected”. The results were very interesting. I’ll post them in a separate thread to avoid a really long post.
Top 10
1. Rafael Septien 4.23
2. John Kasay 3.02
3. Toni Fritsch 2.88
4. Curt Knight 2.65
5. Chris Bahr 2.61
6. Norm Johnson 2.52
7. Adam Vinatieri 2.43
8. Chuck Nelson 2.24
9. Brandon McManus 2.07
10. Matt Bahr 2.01
Bottom 10
146. Chip Lohmiller -2.40
147. Shaun Suisham -2.41
148. Shayne Graham -2.43
149. Don Cockroft -2.49
150. Lin Elliott -2.65
151. Mark Moseley -2.67
152. Lawrence Tynes -2.89
153. Bruce Gossett -2.95
154. Ray Wersching -3.00
155. Nate Kaeding -3.36
Other notables
13. George Blanda 1.90
14. Jason Elam 1.87
17. Gary Anderson 1.70
26. Eddie Murray 1.18
30. Garo Yepremian 1.12
32. Stephen Gostkowski 0.91
34. Matt Stover 0.85
52. David Akers 0.58
63. Jan Stenerud 0.35
68. Mike Vanderjagt 0.19
75. Jason Hanson 0.04
85. Lou Groza -0.23
90. Jim Bakken -0.28
100. Jeff Wilkins -0.44
102. Morten Andersen -0.46
109. John Carney -0.62
140. Mike Cofer -1.59
141. Nick Lowery -1.86
144. Tom Dempsey -2.31
This seems to justify that Vinatieri was indeed a clutch playoff kicker, and also indicates a few other trends:
1. The Dallas Cowboys really benefited from from some clutch playoff kicking in the 1970’s and 1980’s (Rafael Septien was especially amazing), while the Redskins and 49ers definitely did NOT benefit from clutch playoff kicking in the 80’s and 90’s.
2. Many of the best regular season kickers were simply not great in the playoffs.
3. Nate Kaeding was definitely a better regular season kicker than a playoff kicker.
4. The sample size is low, but Nick Lowery was some how a worse kicker in the playoffs than Mike Cofer. Yup, I said it.
Justin: it would be good to systematically see how many HoFers are on dynasty teams vs non-dynasty teams. If I get sufficiently motivated, I may do so. Regardless, as they say in the investing world, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results.
BLSO: interesting reading and thanks for the detailed post. Some thoughts. My concern is that postseason boosts in HoF cases historically happen for QBs but not consistently for any other position. And I’m unclear why an exception should be made for Vinatieri that doesn’t exist for other kickers, small sample size or not. Not sure how one would adjust for dome vs. non-dome kickers, or if one can. Though it should be noted that Groza (all his career), Stenerud (all but his last two years), Lowrey (all his career), and G. Anderson (all but the five years he was with the Vikings) played mostly or fully in home fields located outdoors. Only M. Andersen (all but three years) was an indoor kicker. And Vinatieri has now kicked more than half his career indoors. Also not sure what the lack of recent kickers on Stuart’s list means, though if you’re significantly better than the immediate competition, that should count for something if we’re serious about getting the best players in the HoF.
Where are Antonio Gates and Jason Witten’s HOF stocks at? It’s tough to gauge. I think this is Gates’ last season. Witten probably will play another 2-3 seasons. To clear things up ,Tony G has a shot at first ballot, but who knows. John Mackey, Kellen Winslow, Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome nor any have ever got in on the first ballot. Thought, there is a first time for everything. I did pick Sharpe getting inducted on first ballot back then and still to this day thought he deserved it. If it truly is Gates’ last season , he’ll be eligible in 2022. I expect TO, Randy Moss, and one WR between Torry Holt , Issac Bruce, and Calvin Johnson to be inducted by then. I would pick Holt. I am not sure how voters will view TEs of the 00s-present. Will they be viewed as your traditional TE who blocks and sometimes catch the ball? Or will they be viewed morr as a receiver? I tend to think they’ll be viewed as the latter, except for Witten. He is a solid blocker. I think we might have a conflict between WR and TE based on this era. But, I do hope both will be viewed as different positions so more of each get in. My breakdown for TEs:
Tony G 1st-2nd ballot.Would be shocked if he isn’t in by his 2nd ballot. His 7/13/00s is just incredible.How many have that(7/13/ADT)? Jerry Rice, Merlin Olsen,and Bruce Matthews? Elite company. The more I look at his resume the more I see first ballot written all over it. His 15,000+ yards , and 1300+ receptions(2nd most by ANY player) is hard to look past .Again, anything after 2nd ballot would be unfathomable.
Antonio Gates: 4/8/00s. Definitely lesser than the TE above, but still an excellent AP/PB/ADT resume. What he has going for him is that he is a close 2nd in TDs by a TE to Tony. Shannon Sharpe relative to his time had better stats. From what I see same amount of APs/PBs and was also named to the ADT , but he was first team and won 3 SBs in 4 seasons. I think Gates is around a 6th-8th ballot. It all depends on if voters put in TO +Moss and one of the WRs I mentioned. Reggie Wayne will be on the ballot, but I expect him to wait, as well as Hines Ward.
Jason Witten: 3/10/10s? . I think Gronk is a lock for ADT of 2010s, Jason seems to be the logical choice for the other selection. Who’s first or second team? That is as good of a guess as a coin flip(my guess Gronk 1st team as of now). Anyway, Jason Witten was by far the 3rd best TE of 2000s behind two studs. It’s not like o line where they have two sets of Gs and Ts on each ADT . If so, he would have made it (and possibly Alge Crumpler or Todd Heap). On the high side, let’s say he plays another 3 seasons. He is avg. 4.8 receptions per game this year. So to be conservative, let’s say he avg. 3 from now on. Assuming he plays in all 16 this year and next 3 seasons all 16 games each season, he’ll finish his career with 1,221 receptions, probably 3rd most ever by any player. His resume won’t be to the extent of Tony, but a 3rd ballot HOFer would not be out of the realm of possibilities. Tony will be the measuring stick for all of them when it’s all said and done.
I think Witten gets in after a few years wait and Gates after several years wait. Gronk still really needs a couple more great seasons to be assured of anything; right now his career looks a lot like Todd Christensen’s.
Witten is a 2nd year player to me, but stranger things has happen. Voters could use the low amount of touchdown receptions against him. 60 touchdowns is a lot for the position, but the standard has changed through the years thanks to players like Gronkowski, Tony G, and Gates.
Antonio Gates is going to wait a while. The voters like the touchdowns, but the amount of receptions looks low in today’s era if you compare him to Wide Receiver numbers for receptions.
Gronkowski is a Senior Committee type player right now. You are dealing with a great player that is prone to injuries and I expect his career to be shorter than Shannon Sharpe’s, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten.
Of course as of now Gronk looks likes Senior Nominee .But, he like 27 years old. Kurt after his time with Giants looked like he might be one as well then went to Cards and lite it up. Not unrealistic to think Gronk gets another First Team All Pro or two and 3-4 PBs. His resume is a 4/4/10s? at the moment. If he gets what I said it’ll be at a 5-6/7-8/10s. Of course time will tell.
I should say Kurt was trending towards as a Senior Nominee based on his play from 1998-2006, the he ripped it up from 2007-2009.
Speaking of receivers, the new wave of WRs will be an interesting debate. As of now I see Antonio Brown,Julio Jones , and AJ Green as frontrunners. Also, Brandon Marshall is on the outside looking in. Odell Beckham Jr- too early in his career to start talking HOF. Great start nevertheless.
There is one thing with Gronkowski needs to be addressed.
While Rob is 27 years, his injury record to me screams another potential Shockey, Kellen Wislow Sr,, Todd Christensen, or Mark Bavaro. case The players I mentioned are one that had careers shorten by injury.
Rob already is in his 7th season despite being 27 years old and his missed a good amount of time in his career already. He’s a 9 to 11 year player in the league.
I think Brandon Marshall is going to get in, but not a first ballot type of a player. I think Brandon is going to player 3 or 4 more seasons despite being 32 years old right now.
I saw Hall of fame for 3 reasons.
1.) I believe he’s going to have over 1,100 receptions in his career with him already having over 900.
2.) He’s right now 19 touchdown receptions away from 100. He should reach over 100 touchdown receptions by the time he turns 36 years old.
3.) Brandon Marshall has the Tim Brown argument for him. The Tim Brown Argument is a great wide receiver that has played average or subpar Quarterbacks for all or most of their career.
When Jay Cutler is the best Quarterback you caught passes from, you there is a problem. The fact is Brandon Marshall has played with Cutler, Orton, Henne, Thigpen, Matt Moore, Jason Campbell, Josh Mcnown, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith.
I’m a Jets fan. I am in support of him going into HOF seeing him play first hand. Just right now he wouldn’t make it. Also, Jay Cutler isn’t that bad. PBer, over 30k in yards, 200+ TDs. Nowhere near a HOFer but he is a top 130-150 QB without a doubt. Name me that many better? Roughly 1300 have played the QB position so put it in that prospective.
This is how I see the WR logjam shapes up. TO elected in 2017 or 2018. Randy has a shot at first ballot if TO elected this upcoming class. If TO is still on the ballot for 2018, Randy might have to wait; but would not shock me (and could definitely see it happening) if TO is the one who waits and Randy elected. But both are the first two in and most likely in by 2019. Then Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce next up on pecking order. Holt probably gets the nod first because his prime was better. Issac did top him for single season high in yards but Torry lead the NFL in yards 2x (Bruce 1x), Holt was named to the ADT of 2000s, and was named to double the amount of PBs. I suspect Holt gets in by 2019-2021, then Bruce 2021-2023. I need to see when Johnson. Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Brandon Marshall retire (first three probably end of this year, Marshall 3-4 years). They all are going to probably going to get in someday. Reggie Wayne, retired in 2014, I view as a 4-5th ballot HOFer if Moss, TO, Holt , and Bruce are in (or at least Moss and TO) by the time he is eligible,
Hines Ward is interesting. Of course 1k in receptions now-a-days is not thought the same if it were achieved in the 70s-90s and through very early 2000s ; but he was a big part of 2 SB winning teams, winning SB MVP in one of them. And the guy was an excellent blocker. He will have to wait probably until 2023-2024(he is eligible through 2031 class if not mistaken). Voters will most likely pass on him as long as big names (at least 5-6 of who I list) are on the ballot such as (And including those down the road): (No order of course) Ed Reed, Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor, Edge, Holt, Bruce, Manning, TO, Moss, Faneca, Mawae, Warner, Jacoby, TD, Tony G, LT, Dawkins, Atwater, Lynch, Charles Woodson, Jared Allen,Joey Browner, Ty Law, Hutchinson, Ray Lewis, Patrick Willis, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith Sr, Darren Woodson, Urlacher, Champ Bailey, Freeney,Ronde Barber, Troy Polamalu, and Antonio Gates. Now of course he COULD get in if 5-6 names are still on ballot but those guys I mentioned imo are as if not more deserving. And that list doesn’t even include coaches. Also Larry Fitzgerald said this is his last season but we shall see. And other big names could include Big Ben, Eli ,Rivers, Marshall, Boldin(he’ll wait too), Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Gore, etc.
Going back to Adam V, he has made his last 41 FGs. Avg distance is 41 yards, 9 from 50 or more. The 2 other longest streaks of made FGs are under 39 yards per kick (Mike V and Gary Anderson). So he is pretty accurate.
Once voters get past TO and Moss, it will be very interesting over the subsequent 10-15 election years to see how PFHOF voters sort out the large number of 900+ career reception WRs on the ballot and others soon to join them from post 2000 era. I am thinking many since as possible deserving (including B Marshall) may have a long uncertain wait. And again keep in mind with only 5 slots, and no need or requirement to elect a WR each year, there are also going to be many other equal or more qualified candidates from other positions, moving in ahead of WRs in many election years.
As to Adam V., it is also really hard as with only one modern pure kicker in the PFHOF, there is not much to go on in terms of support and interest by the voters for electing a kicker. M. Anderson seems to be the one best positioned now and elected soon, but could take a decade or longer for the next one as many voters will still view them as less significant “part time” players compared to other starting positions. I think the certainty of electing Adam V or anyone else as the next and future kicker remains very murky.
” I am thinking many possible deserving (including B Marshall) may have a long uncertain wait”
Actually, Brad, I’d say Witten was the best TE of the 2000s, though I’m taking blocking into account. Media voters tend to only judge TEs based on a quick glance at receiving stats.
Historically PFHOF voters have been very slow to elect TEs, so Tony G will be a telling case for how they view the position in this recent passing game era with big receiving numbers from TEs in their more hybrid role as TE/WR and less traditional one in terms of blocking at the line. If Tony is voted in his 1st year or soon after, it should set the stage for both Gates and Witten for relatively quick elections within 2-5 years (although I do believe both will eventually get in it will be interesting to see how long it takes, especially with potential vote splitting in the mix with all the WRs also on the ballot at those times).
Okay my prediction for semi finalists:
Kurt Warner
LaDainian Tomlinson
Edgerrin James
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Hines Ward
Torry Holt
Isaac Bruce
Terrell Owens
Steve Wisniewski
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Tony Boselli
Kevin Mawae
Jason Taylor
Zach Thomas
Corenlius Bennett
Joey Browner
Darren Woodson
Steve Atwater
John Lynch
Brian Dawkins
Ty Law
Morten Andersen
Don Coryell
Jimmy Johnson
Bill Cowher
Those who were right on the edge:
Donovan McNabb- He will be the best QB until Manning, Brees, Brady etc are on the ballot. It’s a very heavy offensive ballot. If Warner was in last year he might have been my pick because voters like QBs.
Shaun Alexander and Ottis Anderson: Both deserving but too many RBs ahead of them currently.
Henry Ellard and Sterling Sharpe. Same thing . Too deep in WRs.
Others who were semis last year could have made it, but I feel too many good players who are eligible this year deserve it as much.
Karl Mecklenburg could be swap in for Hines.
I hope Zach Thomas makes semi finalists. 5/7/00s is strong. Voters owe it to him electing him on modern era. He would get buried in Senior Nominee poll. He has many years of eligibility left , I think he makes it by 2022-2026. 2018 is going to be insane. Randy Moss, Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Steve Hutchinson, Ronde Barber, and Richard Seymour are going to make the ballot. Lewis is a lock for first ballot. Moss lock for Finalist (could be first ballot), Urlacher lock for semi finalist, Barber, Hutchinson,and Seymour I think could all make semi finalists, but not sure how it pans out. Jacoby elected (most likely) will theoretically free up a spot for Hutchinson, a safety in will free up a spot for Barber, and Seymour was on the great Pats dynasty and his 3/7/00s is sort of strong.
The ballot is going to be incredibly crowded in 10-20 years. The following I view as of now HOF worthy/on pace to make the HOF who are not on the ballot yet/eligible for modern era:
*= First ballot
QBs
Aaron Rodgers*
Tom Brady*
Peyton Manning*
Drew Brees*
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning
Phillip Rivers
Russell Wilson (Yes he is young, but he has a great start. 2nd best career passer rating, SB win, and will be a perennial PBer)
Cam Newton (He needs to be consistent and healthy. His rushing TD total is going to be interesting. Wouldn’t surprise me if he gets to 70-80 with 250-300 passing TDs)
Matt Ryan (On pace for HOF for sure. What if he gets another 4 4k yard seasons?)
Andrew Luck (The only QB on this list who needs to do a lot to get in. Needs another 4-5 PBs to lock it up, not first ballot though. Like I said , this list is also those who are on pace. A lot can happen)
RB
Adrian Peterson*
Frank Gore
Steven Jackson (borderline)
WR
Randy Moss*(Borderline first ballot)
Reggie Wayne
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald(If he plays another 3-4 could get close to 1400 receptions)
Steve Smith Sr
Brandon Marshall
Anquan Boldin (Might be a Senior Nominee or on one of his last ballots)
Antonio Brown (potential first ballot. Well on pace for HOF. Will extend Big Ben’s career)
Julio Jones (On pace)
AJ Green (On pace. Will make his 6th straight PB in 6 years in league)
TE
Tony Gonzalez*
Jason Witten
Antonio Gates
Rob Gronkowski(if he can stay healthy)
O Linemen
Joe Thomas*
Steve Hutchinson
Jason Peters
Jahri Evans
Nick Mangold
Logan Mankins(borderline)
D Linemen/LBs
Ray Lewis*
DeMarcus Ware*(Borderline first ballot. If he gets to 145-150 sacks he should be in first time up)
Jared Allen*(Borderline first ballot. Don’t think he will be but some talk he might be)
JJ Watt*(His first ballot enshrinement is contingent on him playing another 3 maybe 4-5 years, with at least a career total of 100-115 sacks. Hard to look past 3x DPOY and Bert Bell POY. Him and LT are the only to do so. Yeah, that LT )
Brian Urlacher
Richard Seymour
Julius Peppers
Dwight Freeney
Kevin Williams
Terrell Suggs (Borderline HOFer)
John Abraham(borderline HOFer)
Von Miller (Well on pace )
Lance Briggs (Perhaps the biggest stretch on this list that isn’t active)
DBs
Ed Reed*
Charles Woodson*
Champ Bailey*
Ronde Barber
Troy Polamalu
Darrelle Revis
Earl Thomas(On pace)
Richard Sherman(on pace if he can make another 3-4 PBs. He is also part of the Legion of Boom, with Earl)
Patrick Peterson (Well on pace for HOF)
STs
Adam Vinatieri(If he becomes the all time scorer, he’ll for sure make it)
Shane Lechler (7/7/00s screams HOF. Only one other punter in, Ray Guy, a fellow Raider himself. Will be tough but his resume is hard to pass up)
Devin Hester (Controversial player. Not off the field or anything like that, but as in his HOF worthiness. 3/4/00s is “weak” but eye test wise, I and most would pick him to be on the all time team as returner and no one close. Sayers and Deion were great, but Devin is the best ever. Senior Nominee perhaps)
I may have missed players. Let me know if I have and by all means give me your feedback.
Oops missed Patrick Willis, Definitely HOF worthy.
plus Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott…….hey like many other rookies and players from recent drafts they too will be eligible in 10-20 years!
But it does illustrate the challenge with predicting PFHOF elections more than 5 years out, since there will be many players eligible and also the challenges for players likely on the bubble now and in upcoming years, just how hard and selective election to the PFHOF can be with only 5 modern player slots available each year and why many will still end up in the seniors pool. So as much as we can make the case for a “bubble player” such as Brandon Marshall it is clear that when up against so many equal or more qualified players from other positions and decades, how he may see a long wait for election or fall into the seniors pool.
Zeke looks good. Dak does too, but as of now i’d guess Zeke has better a career. Potential NFL MVP this year.
Marshal Yanda and Luke Kuechly belong on the list above. Maybe Ndamukong Suh, Haloti Ngata, Geno Atkins, Ryan Kalil, Eric Berry, NaVorro Bowman, and Zack Martin as well.
I knew I forgot some. Thanks Bachslunch.
Tyron Smith 2(1)/3 ??
Paul, yes him also. Those who are not active who could be worthy (that I forgot) but I don’t think will make it, even in Senior Poll : Nnamdi Asomugha, Brian Waters, London Fletcher, Jeff Saturday, Jason Hanson,James Farrior, Casey Hampton,Keith Brooking,Matt Birk, Andre Gurode, Asante Samuel, Adrian Wilson,David Akers,Justin Smith.
Out of those I’d pick Waters, Saturday, and Akers(incredibly tough for him to make it though. Morten, Gary, and Lowery are not in and one pure kicker in bodes horribly for him). Others who I’d consider: Nnamdi’s peak was pretty darn good, but he fell off big time after he signed that big contract with Eagles. Asante Samuel might make the ballot but DB position is very backed up. If Reed, Troy, both Woodson’s, Lynch, and Dawkins didn’t exist he’d have a good shot. London Fletcher is interesting. 0/4/none is not strong, but he had quality seasons outside his 4 PB seasons(I think a PB alternate 5-6x). And his durability was amazing(played in 256 straight games out of 256. Incredible). 39 sacks with 23 Ints, and 2000+ total tackles is pretty good. Ballot worthy. Enshrinement worthy? I am on the fence. I tend to lean towards no. Adrian Wilson, again like Samuel, too many good Defensive Backs still eligible/will be, especially at safety position. Justin Smith has a nice sack total for an interior d lineman. But, he did also spend about half his career as a DE. 87 sacks is good, but I don’t view as HOF worthy. 95-105 would be HOF worthy for him. Of course in Seymour’s case, even though he had a much lower amount, he did win 3 SBs in 4 years, being the best defensive player on those teams with a profile of 3/7/00s vs Smith’s 1/5/none. It’s a no brainer who deserves it more. Ultimately, I still don’t think any of these players will ever make it in the HOF, but if 1-3 do, I wouldn’t necessarily mind it. Senior Poll seems likely for at least one. Who? Not sure.
James Harrison I debated back and forth on. He might have a better shot than Lance Briggs, who I mentioned and said is perhaps the biggest stretch. James’ low sack total held me back but he’s borderline. 2/5/none is low, but adds to his aother awards he has such as DPOY and 2 SBs victories. I still think he falls short of enshrinement but he is ballot worthy.
Another active player I thought of was Demaryius Thomas. 0/3/10s? as of now, is a good start. He has had 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons, which includes 3 seasons of 1,400+, and another season of 1,300+. He has postseason success too. SB win, 759 yards, and 6 TDs. That’s pretty good for a 28 year old. He will go up against AJ Green, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones. All 4 won’t have to go up against (at once) TO, Moss, Wayne, Holt, Ward, Bruce, Smith Sr, both Johnsons, and Marshall. I see TO, Moss, Holt, and Bruce in by 2022-2023. That’ll leave the Johnson’s, Ward, Wayne, Smith Sr, and Marshall for 2023-2030 or so; and I hope the voters separate eras. Also, keep an eye on Greg Olsen. He is a late bloomer. First 5 seasons of his career he avg. 32 yards per game. Since then ( including this year) he has avg. 62 ypg and he’s working on a 1,500-1,600 yard season this year.
And for WRs, I shouldn’t forget Larry Fitzgerald, but not sure when he retires.,
Was just thinking about Greg Olsen. He’s in his prime, having a huge season and on the verge of reaching 600 receptions for 7,000 yds. He’s the 2nd best TE in the NFL right now with Gates and Witten in decline. Certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Vince Wilfork probably deserves a mention too though his best chance looks to be as a Senior nominee.
Unfortunately Nose Tackles don’t get credit. Senior Nominee seems most likely. Fred Smerlas is HOF worthy. 3/5/none is not too bad. According to PPR he is on their ADT.
One QB that I didn’t mention to keep an eye on would be Matthew Stafford. His one PB doesn’t help but what also doesn’t help is the era he plays in. PBs are fan votes, not player votes. If he wore a Patriot, Steeler, Packer, or Cowboy jersey he’d be a 0/4-5 right now because he has had 4 other PB worthy seasons. He’s 28, gonna be 29 in February. He is on pace to throw for just under 4,400 this year and that’s without Megatron. For argument sake, ,let’s say he ends up with 4,200 this year. He’ll be at 30,176 for a career. And let’s say he plays another 5-6 seasons after this one and avg 4,000 yards per, at the high end he’ll end up with 54,176 yards. I know it’s a different era than it was in 40s-90s but over 50k with consistent play seems HOF worthy. And being bold, if he avg. 4,200 yards next 6 after this year, he’ll end up with 55,376 yards. A lot of ifs, but he could do it. Not too unrealistic. It all depends on if Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston have better careers. It’ll be a very crowded era for QBs. We could see 10-15 HOF worthy careers from QBs from 2000-2030.
Crunching numbers for Carson Palmer: He could get to 50,000 yards with 300 TD passes. He needs to avg. 250 passing yards per game from now til end of 2016 season then plays 2 more seasons and gets 3,500 yards each season for next 2 after this one, he’ll have just over 50k ; and just needs 8 TDs this year and 26 more to get to 300. Are those HOF numbers? I think so, but when you look at his career, doesn’t scream HOF for some reason. I think it’s because 0/3 is very weak for HOF. Not saying he has no case. My point is , if he hits those numbers, it will make for an interesting debate. His 88 career passer rating(16 all time) helps. And among those with at least 5,500 attempts, ,like himself, he ranks nicely (6th) behind Brady , Manning, Rivers, Brees, and Big Ben. Now, if Cards win the SB with him as starter,his stock shoots right up to HOF worthy without hesitation. He has three things going for him. David Johnson is a solid young back, he has good WRs, outside of Fitz, they are relatively young. Defense is good and young too. Those bode well for QBs. Look at Peyton Manning last year. His D was amazing and he had perhaps his worst regular season of his career;and they still made playoffs and won the SB.
I’ve been looking at a lot of other active players. LeSean McCoy has somewhat of a HOF start: 2/4/10s?, likely going to make his 5th PB this year, he already has 8,274 rushing yards for career, 4.7 ypc , TDs: 53 rush, 13 rec,has a rushing title,a yards from scrimmage title, and 20 TD season which didn’t happen when he got his rushing title so two very good seasons with 2 good seasons. He is 28 all this year. I know once they hit 30, historically speaking we see a drop off but Frank Gore and others have shown otherwise. You know me and my projecting, I’ll project for him : He’s on pace for a 1,500 yard season. Let’s say he gets to 1,350. He’ll then have 8,987 . Then if he gets 2 seasons of 1,200, he’ll end up with 11,687, perhaps to go along with 2-3/5-6/10s? and around 75-85 total TDs. That’s a better resume than Gore, Jackson, and a plethora of 10k yard backs.
Clay Matthews is currently at 1/6/10s? . He has a low sack total for being primarily a pass rusher (70.5). I think he needs another 30-40 sacks with 2-3 more PBs(one more AP would help tremendously) in order to have a HOF career. He’s also someone to keep any eye on.
Kam Chancellor: 0/4/10s? . He’s having a slow start this year. But he could have a nice 2nd half and sneak into the PB. Don’t mean to sound redundant but, he’s someone we should keep track on.
Maurkice Pouncey: I left him off my big list because he gets hurt. He has played in every game this year, so he’ll make the list if he PBs this year. 2/4/10s? is a nice start. Min. amount of PBs seems to be 6-7 for O linemen , unless you were on SB winning teams like Joe Jacoby. His HOF candidacy is contingent on his health.
Matt Slater has by far the biggest long shot out of anyone i’ll ever mention. But, hard to ignore his resume thus far and what it could project to : 3/5 (And if they had a Special Teamer/Gunner he’d make it for the 2010s ADT). It could project to a 3-4/8-10. Steve Tasker not in tells me gunners are not viewed as high as Punters and Kickers. If one non kicker/punter on STs I’d put in post Tasker era, it would be hands down Devin Hester. So again, biggest long shot I’ll ever mention and nothing to do with his skill set. It’s more to do with his position. Because then it’ll maybe then open the door for Long snappers, but I think we all view gunners as a more skillful position than someone who just snaps the ball deep.
With few or no All Pro selections and no SB wins, I can see were we get to a point in the future given the passing era where QBs with 40,000 yards +300 TDs may see a very long and uncertain road to election to the PFHOF. As extreme as may seem, by as early as 2020s that may become a standard average career for a 10+ year starting QB, leading to the question if that is standard or just above average does that warrant selection to the PFHOF (same can be said for the 900+ reception WRs/TEs).
40k and 300 TDs if you played in the 2000s through the 2010s, you should get in. Palmer might be the exception. His 0/3/none does not help him. That’s why I think 50k yards for him will be his only way in. It’ll be interesting to see how voters view Big Ben ,Eli, and Rivers. We all know Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees (who yesterday got his 100th career game of 300 yards, an NFL record with no HOF WRs ever in his career) are first ballot HOFers. They are making Peyton’s bust for 2021 HOF as we speak(sarcasm).
I do think Big Ben is first to get inducted, then Eli, and Rivers (solely because Eli won 2 SBs and has 2 SB MVPs, Rivers has 4 playoff wins. Voters like SB wins. Why they had Plunkett of the ballot all those years).Ben gets hurt here and there compared to the other two, who both haven’t missed a start since being named starters(besides Eli’s rookie year). But, reasons why i have Ben going in first is that he won 2 SBs and been to another. He has an 1.8 TD to int ratio, which is much better than Eli’s 1.4. (Put it this way, Ben would need to throw 0 TDs and 45 Ints for his ratio to be on par with Eli’s) Ben has a passer rating of 94.3 and Eli has an 83.7. Big difference. Also, Ben can scramble. Eli can at times, but not like Roethlisberger. As of now I think Ben gets in on his 4th-5th ballot. Eli 6th-7th. Rivers 7th. I personally would induct Rivers ahead of Eli because his passer rating is way better, but those two SB wins carry a lot of weight. If Ben can play another 2-3 seasons he could get in first ballot. All depends on how he finishes out his career. Eli and Rivers same thing. And something to note: Eli needs 108 more starts in a row to pass Favre’s incredible streak. Seemed impossible to beat when Favre did it, but Eli could. That being said, Eli would be 40 or so if he were to break it. I think durability should help Rivers and Eli. Again, if all three gets to 50k with 350+ TDs, they could make a case for first ballot
The more 40k, 300 TD QBs that are elected, and then the 50k, 350+, raises the bar higher and at some point PFHOF voters are going to look at this era and stop and say how many QBs (especially those with few or no All Pro or SB wins) will get in. The top four clearly are Manning, Brady, Brees and Rodgers, with Ben and Eli next, but there is a chance that 6 is seen as enough and Rivers (if he retires without more All Pro or SB win) may wait a very long time and the longer he is on the ballot the more chances for him to be bypassed by other players and perhaps the next wave of great QBs, some of whom are only a few years behind him in terms of playing years. I think Rivers could have a very long wait, especially if you look at other top ten QBs from the 70s, 80s and 90s still not elected, including some already fallen in the seniors pool.
One other interesting factor is how longer many QBs are playing at a high level. Previous to this era it was rare to see consistent year to year starting QB performance above average for players over 35, and/or 10+ starting seasons, but increasingly for those that can stay healthy, it is possible (Brady, Brees, Payton at ages 37 and 38). This factor of longevity with experience and maintaining the basic skills set – and challenge in finding and developing new young QBs – may be heading us into an era of more QBs who are protected by rules and referees staying in the game longer and thus building large career numbers, especially considering that more than any other position (besides perhaps coaches) a legacy of a QB, including for the PFHOF, are SB wins, including multiple ones.
I disagree about Philip Rivers could have a long wait for the Hall of Fame. Philip is going to be 35 years old in December and is only 6 touchdown passes away from 300 touchdown passes. Philip is going to average over 25 touchdown passes from 2017 to 2019. I am banking on Philip getting over 20 touchdown passes at the age of 39 in 2020.
He hasn’t a missed a game since the Chargers let Drew Brees sign with the Saints. Philip Rivers to me going to be 390 to 430 career touchdown pass quarterback. Philip is good for 26 to 33 in touchdown passes in a season.
If Philip Rivers reaches over 400 touchdown passes, I think there is going to be any question for him being inducted into Canton. 400 career touchdown passes even in this era is considered elite numbers.
I disagree about Philip Rivers could have a long wait for the Hall of Fame. Philip is going to be 35 years old in December and is only 6 touchdown passes away from 300 touchdown passes. Philip is going to average over 25 touchdown passes from 2017 to 2019. I am banking on Philip getting over 20 touchdown passes at the age of 39 in 2020.
He hasn’t a missed a game since the Chargers let Drew Brees sign with the Saints. Philip Rivers to me going to be 390 to 430 career touchdown pass quarterback. Philip is good for 26 to 33 in touchdown passes in a season.
If Philip Rivers reaches over 400 touchdown passes, I think there is going to be any question for him being inducted into Canton. 400 career touchdown passes even in this era is considered elite numbers.
arian foster retired thoughts
Well said packerfan4ever. If Rivers retired end of this year, yes he’d have a long wait. But he’ll play another 2-3 seasons. He’ll also benefit from his high career passer rating. Only other QB besides Ben and Eli that’ll he’ll have to go up against is Palmer and McNabb that rival his candidacy.
Arian Foster would be first ballot for the undrafted HOF. 1/4/none with a rushing title is better than Frank Gore and Steven Jackson, but his rushing total prevents enshrinement. If he’s in, justify why Alexander, Barber, Craig, Walker, Dillon, Holmes, Lewis, Dunn, and others not even on semi finalist (besides Craig), let alone a finalist.
Here’s how I see next 3 HOF classes play out (no order of who’s better):
2017:
Tomlinson
Warner
Lynch
Jacoby
Coryell
2018:
Ray Lewis
Owens or Moss
Terrell Davis
Brian Dawkins
Jason Taylor
2019
Alan Faneca
Champ Bailey
Ed Reed
Moss or Owens
Tony Gonzalez
2020
Steve Atwater
Torry Holt
Kevin Mawae
Edgerrin James
Zach Thomas
2021
Peyton Manning
Isaac Bruce
Darren Woodson
Morten Andersen
Bill Cowher
Subject to change. It was hard for me to make the classes without having all the names in one group. Had to refer to my semi finalist list and notinthehalloffame.com . But, just a quick prediction. Thoughts?
Next 4*. Originally was going to do 3, bur decided to do 5 total.
No way on Arian Foster. Career is too short (6,527 career rushing yards doesn’t cut it) and he doesn’t have a peak like Terrell Davis.
Really not sure on Bill Cowher getting elected anytime soon — especially given that Jimmy Johnson was a finalist recently. There might still be lingering questions about whether he stays retired. Plus his resume of 1 SB win and 140-90-1 lifetime W-L record doesn’t look as good as several contemporary coaches such as Bill Belichick (4 SB, 229-114), Tom Coughlin (2 SBs, 170-150), Mike Shanahan (2 SB, 170-138), and Mike Holmgren (1 SB, 161-111). Would guess it will be a really long wait for him, with a chance it doesn’t happen at all.
The challenge with Rivers is the need to project continued above average (or even better) performance for another 2-3 years at an age and stage of a QB career when the bottom can really fall out badly. Projecting performance beyond age 35 is really risky and uncertain with the odds not in the players favor. If he can top off his career with multiple pro bowls, add All Pro or more, and have playoff successes, he may be will positioned for the PFHOF. But only time will tell.
Brad your predicted elections look pretty good, but I have to agree with bachslunch on Cowher as I am pretty certain after Coryell, Johnson is the next likely coach and given only 5 slots per year PFHOF voters have tended to favor players over coaches, so after Johnson it may be possible that Belichick may be the next one. Unless the PFHOF changes their bylaws and moves coaches into the contributors once the current 5 year cycle of senior and contributors elections ends.
Oops forgot about Charles Woodson. Would switch him in for Morten Adersen for class of 2021, then that might set up MA for 2022.
I agree the way it looks is Jimmy J gets in before Bill Cowher, but it’s the way I would like it to go/the way it might go. A combination of both.
agreed with bachs lunch on arian foster way too short of a career
Arian Foster is going to get honors by the Houston Texans at some point, but he’s not going to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The problem is if you put him into Canton, you going open a can of worms on why a lot of running backs aren’t in Canton.
There is no augment for Arian going in based on the states aren’t there and Priest Holmes, and Terrell Davis had more impressive short primes.
Eli should pass Vinny Testaverde , another NY QB legend in himself, for 9th all time in passing yards. next weekend. He needs just 63. He should also pass Fran Tarkenton for 8th all time, in 3-4 games after that. He is 35. I think he plays 3-4 more seasons.Not including this year, if he averages 3,500 yards per, he’ll have 60,171 yards, which as of now will have him 5th. But, Brady will move up as well so probably 6th-7th depending on Phillip Rivers. I think he’ll get another 2 4k seasons so it’ll possible be 62,000-63,000. Just something to keep in mind. Is that first ballot territory? If he plays that long. he’ll have about 400 TDs as well. I think it could be first ballot worthy. I know the new standard for election (not first ballot ) might be 50k with 320-340 TDs, but Eli started out in 2004 and hasn’t missed a start since he took over as starter. QBs of 2010s will possibly be held to that standard (except Newton, Wilson,Winston, and Mariota. Their rushing won’t allow them to get that much). But, also Eli why I think he has somewhat of a chance is that , while his D helped, he ended the 18-0 season of Pats . And beat them 4 years later. People still, 8 years later, talk about the 18-1 Pats’ “failure”. Of course 18-0 is unprecedented and not really a failure failure, but you know what I mean.
I have no doubt that if Rivers post age 35 can compile another 3-4 seasons at above average numbers and ends up over 60,000 career yards he will be set up for the PFHOF, but of course lets first see how those next 3-4 seasons ago as post age 35 QB performance is more characterized by a fall rather then sustained or rise in production.
Rivers should get out of SD. Imagine him with good WRs? Jets?
So Andre Johnson is retiring. I am glad he didn’t retire end of 2014 because he would have been stuck in an even bigger logjam . Based on my predictions, Moss, TO, Holt, and Bruce will be inducted by 2021; and he will then have to deal with Hines Ward, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and perhaps Steve Smith Sr(if he retires end of this year). I suspect Larry Fitzgerald to play 2-3 more seasons, who I think has a slight shot at first ballot. Calvin might get the Sterling Sharpe treatment but Calvin played 9 seasons, Sterling 7 and Calvin’s peak was better with a lesser QB (Stafford vs Favre, I’d take Brett at this point). Not too mention,89.2% of Sterling’s TDs came from Brett Favre and in a PB Don Majkowski. 40.9% of Calvin’s came from a rookie and 2nd year Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill,Dan Orlovsky,Jon Kitna,An out of prime Daunte Culpepper,Drew Stanton, and J.T. O’Sullivan. Andre Johnson is in same group. Except he lasted longer. His breakdown of who threw to him: Yes Schaub had a good 2-3 year stretch but fizzled out quickly. And he had Luck for one TD. 52.8% of Andre’s TDs came from David Carr,Sage Rosenfels,Case Keenum,Tony Banks,Ryan Fitzpatrick,Marcus Mariota,an old Matt Hasselbeck and ,Ryan Lindley. I am not sure what the pecking order will be. Anyone have thoughts on that?
I think both A Johnson and C Johnson will get in the PFHOF but I do not see either as solid 1st ballot selections, but could see elections within 2-4 years. Lots will depend on how the other WRs fare in the previous elections and if there is room for many WRs on the finalist list when they are eligible. I think the prospects for Ward, Wayne and S. Smith will impact how the two Johnsons are viewed as well as the number and order of WRs who are elected. There is no assurance that a WR will be elected each year from 2018-2022 so there is a good chance that there will still be a good size logjam of WRs when the Johnsons arrive.
Of course WRs might not be in every year from 2018-2022, but you did say you liked my predictions minus Bill Cowher. Anyway, Aquan Boldin might get the short end of the stick. No APs and just 3 PBs will hurt him.
One WR each year over the 4 year period from 2018-2021seems reasonable, I just wonder starting in 2022 with a WR logjam still apparent and perhaps WR voting fatigue may hit the committee. Plus continuing to “hold” or “dedicate” 1 out of only 5 available modern slots each year for a WR may not be sustainable with many other quality candidates at other positions on the ballot, including their more competitive positions of QB and TE also fighting for election. The recent retired WRs may be getting ahead of the upcoming wave of QBs and TEs, but not far enough ahead to end up competing with them as well as each other, That is why I think that the WRs Johnsons plus Ward, Wayne and Smith may be in for some waiting.
I totally agree. The reason why I am glad Andre didn’t retire in 2014 is because he would have lost 2 years of eligibility to Holt and Bruce. My personal pecking order would be Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith Sr, and Hines Ward. If Larry Fitzgerald retires in 2018, he’ll be eligible in 2024. I think Johnson’s would be in and others still on ballot. Fitz should jump them like how Moss ans TO will ans have jumped Holt and Bruce. Brandon Marshall should play until 2019-2020. But, we’ll see how it plays out.
and* and*
Terrell Owens says he is available if Eagles want him. lol I find that funny. If he were to do that it would screw other WRs for HOF. Or could help them.
Last year the list of 25 semi-finalists for 2016 election was announced on Nov 24th, 2015 (Tuesday before Thanksgiving), so if that schedule holds to form this year, look for announcement on Tues Nov 22nd.
sorry, just checked on NFL Network website and they have HOF show on their program schedule for Monday Nov. 21st at 930a for announcement of 2017 semi-finalists
ohhh…make that 930p on Nov 21st !!
Paul, if you had to guess who do you think will be the 25 semi-finalists?
As I said before, this is mine:
Kurt Warner
LaDainian Tomlinson
Edgerrin James
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Hines Ward
Torry Holt
Isaac Bruce
Terrell Owens
Steve Wisniewski
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Tony Boselli
Kevin Mawae
Jason Taylor
Zach Thomas
Corenlius Bennett
Darren Woodson
Steve Atwater
John Lynch
Brian Dawkins
Ty Law
Morten Andersen
Don Coryell
Jimmy Johnson
I took off Bill Cowher and Joey Browner because 27 is too many. 25 seems the numbers they’ll pick.
Morton Anderson
Steve Atwater
Tony Boselli
Isaac Bruce
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Brian Dawkins
Alan Faneca
Rodney Harrison
Torry Holt
Edgerrin James
Joe Jacoby
Jimmy Johnson
Ty Law
John Lynch
Clay Matthews
Kevin Mawae
Karl Mecklenburg
Terrell Owens
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jason Taylor
Hines Ward
Kurt Warner
Darren Woodson
and future election predictions:
2017: LaDainian Tomlinson, Kurt Warner, Joe Jacoby, John Lynch, Don Coryell
2018: Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Edgerrin James, M Anderson,
2019: Tony Gonzalez, Terrell Owens, Kevin Mawae. Jason Taylor, Steve Alwater
correction:
2017: LaDainian Tomlinson, Kurt Warner, Joe Jacoby, John Lynch, Don Coryell
2018: Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Terrell Davis, M Anderson,
2019: Tony Gonzalez, Terrell Owens, Kevin Mawae. Brian Urlacher, Steve Alwater
Good list, Paul. I can see Urlacher getting in 2nd ballot. But, you don’t have Champ Bailey as a 1st ballot? You view him as overrated as far as his # of PBs were mostly fan voted rather than him being that good? Just wondering. And Ed Reed should make it first ballot in 2019. 6/9/00s, incredible ball hawk, hard hitter, very good in playoffs.
My predicted semifinalists:
Returning Finalists (10):
Warner
James
Davis
Owens
Jacoby
Faneca
Atwater
Lynch
Andersen
Coryell
First Time Eligibles (3):
Tomlinson
Taylor
Dawkins
Returning Semifinalists (10):
Law
Holt
Bruce
Boselli
Mawae
Craig
Johnson
Mills
Mecklenberg
Kenn
First-Time Semifinalists (2):
Thomas
Bavarro
Pains me to leave off Leslie O’Neal, but Zack Thomas and Mark Bavarro seem like better choices to me.
Not so high on Mark Bavaro. Yes he was kind of like Gronk before Gronk, but 2/2/none just doesn’t cut it for me,even for semi finalist. Yes he won 2 SBs, but his profile is too low. 2/5-6/none would cut it. Also, Todd Christensen should be in but isn’t and sorta played in same era and had a much better profile. If ballot wasn’t so deep I wouldn’t mind him on it just to fill a slot.
sorry missed Champ there, here is revised update of 207-2019 predictions:
2017: LaDainian Tomlinson, Kurt Warner, Joe Jacoby, John Lynch, Don Coryell
2018: Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Terrell Davis, M Anderson,
2019: Tony Gonzalez, Terrell Owens, Kevin Mawae, Champ Bailey, Steve Alwater
(Until I see improvement by PFHOF voters in regards to the Safety position, I am deferring Ed Reed to 2020, plus doubt 2019 would see 3/5 slots go to 1st time candidates)
the problem is brad that todd christensen is now in the seniors pool
I’m saying Todd isn’t even in HOF so I don’t see Bavaro making the semi finalist.
I think his Ints and passer rating will prevent it,but Eli could make the HOF first ballot. I can see him getting to 390-410 passing TDs, 58,000-62,000 yards and 125-135 wins. To me his postseason keeps him alive for first ballot consideration. Without two rings and 2 SB MVPa, he’d have the Ken Anderson treatment: Straight to the Senior Nominee Pool. But, at same time, Ken was at one point considered best QB and player in NFL. ElI top 5 QB 1-2 seasons. Now sounding crazy, If Eli gets to 450 TDs and 65,000 passing yards and 2 more playoff wins, he would be first ballot.
Frank Gore (after Week 9) and Tony Dorsett have both played 173 games and their career numbers are remarkably similar.
Gore:
12,632 rushing yards
4.4 ypc
400 receptions
3,280 receiving yards
90 TDs
1,000 TDs seasons: 8
Dorsett:
12,739 rushing yards
4.3 ypc
398 receptions
3,554 receiving yards
91 TDs
1,000 TDs seasons: 7 (with 745 TDs during the 1982 strike year).
Sorry for the typo above. Last row should be yards not TDs.
Steve Smith Sr needs just 3 more receptions to become the 14th member of the 1,000 club. 10-15 years ago that would lock you up for enshrinement as we all know. It does help your candidacy tremendously; but, now-a-days 1,000 receptions is more of a necessity for enshrinement . Calvin Johnson is the exception. 3/6/likely 10s is not bad for a 9 year career. But, back to Steve Smith Sr. I think he along with Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, and Brandon Marshall have long waits. Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson seem to have easier paths. Ward had Big Ben throwing for nearly half (48%) his TDs he has scored in the air. Reggie had Peyton throw for 4/5 of his. Brandon Marshall has a record. Most 100 reception seasons with 6. And to think his best QBs have been Cutler and Fitzpatrick speaks volumes of how great he is. He’ll need to reach 1,000 receptions to really separate himself, like Gore getting to 12,000+ rushing yards. But Marshall’s 1/6/10s? is not too shabby. Why I think Andre Johnson has a better path is he had so many below avg QBs and Schaub was good, but I think Andre made him good. Some of those who I mentioned might have to wait until Senior Nominee. But, Boldin I think has the hardest path. 0/3/none is not too great. It’s by far the weakest among of those who I mentioned. His 1,000 receptions is his biggest achievement and Steve Smith Sr will most likely get it next game and Marshall next year so that list will grow and in theory hurt Boldin’s candidacy.
One thing that will delay Andre Johnson a bit are his relatively low career TD totals. But it’s not a deal breaker by any means. Boldin may have a tougher road, but he’s still playing (and fairly productively); the longer he can do so, the better his counting numbers will be, and the better his chances become.
Agreed. 3 years ago if Boldin retired he wouldn’t make it at all. His numbers would be similar to Derrick Mason and Keenan McCardell. If Boldin can get to 1,200 receptions and 14,500 yards with 83-85 TDs, he’ll make it as a Modern era candidate without a doubt. Probably at best 10-11th ballot because WR log jam is going to be long; and doubt he’ll make another PB, 0/3/none is not necessarily HOF worthy but career stats will get him in . I really hope he can play 1 more season. Maybe with Drew Brees,who’s never had a HOF caliber WR (had Gates, but he’s a TE and surprisingly has made up of only 5.1% of his career TD passes.) Just think nearly 64% of his 449 TD passes have went to:
Lance Moore ,Robert Meachem,Devery Henderson,Brandin Cooks,Darren Sproles,Pierre Thomas,Reggie Bush,Eric Parker,Ben Watson,Keenan McCardell,Josh Hill,Kenny Stills,Reche Caldwell,David Thomas,Jeremy Shockey,Terrance Copper,Curtis Conway,Michael Thomas,Willie Snead,Jed Collins,Joe Horn ,David Patten ,Travaris Cadet,David Boston ,Heath Evans,Brandon Coleman,Fred McCrary,Joe Morgan,Kassim Osgood,Billy Miller,Michael Hoomanawanui,Tim Dwight,Mark Ingram,Justin Peelle,Josh Norman ,Eric Johnson,Mark Campbell,Coby Fleener,C.J. Spiller,Mike Karney,John Kuhn,Austin Johnson,Aaron Stecker,Stephen Alexander,John Gilmore,Lorenzo Neal,Nick Toon,Ernie Conwell,Deuce McAllister,Erik Lorig,Darnell Dinkins,Jamal Jones,Freddie Jones.
I think we should start saying where Drew Brees’ ranking is for all time QBs. I say top 5-6. He has had so many receivers yet still so productive.
Speaking of QBs , Rivers we always talk about, is about to get to the 300 TD club. That alone won’t assure an enshrinement, it’ll certainly place him in an elite club. He’ll be the only one to be in it who hasn’t made the SB. But, that won’t prevent him from ever being first ballot, Warren Moon never made either. I think 400-425 TD passes and 55-60k yards gets him right on the edge of it. Which, I think he can get. It depends on if he wants to continue to play after 2017. As is, after this season, he’d get in the HOF, but the road to Canton would be long. Hopefully he wants to play through 2018 and posts some awesome career numbers to leave little to no doubt in voters eyes.
“I think we should start saying where Drew Brees’ ranking is for all time QBs. I say top 5-6. ”
There is no way Brees is breaking into this group: Montana, Brady, Manning, Elway, Montana, Favre. But top 10 is certainly possible.
My top six QBs would be Montana, Graham, Unitas, Baugh, P. Manning, and Brady. Maybe in that order, maybe not.
Favre? Mr 336 ints? Also Peyton won one SB with Wayne and Harrison and future HOFer Dwight Freeney. Brees won it with no one close to that, let alone a duo of WRa like that. Yes if you go by MVPs, PBs, APs,they are much better, but Favre in 90s didn’t have to deal with QBs like Rodgers, Brady,and Peyton. And Peyton’s SB run with Colts he had 3 TDs- 7 ints. And with Hroncos he was riding on a top 10 D of all time. Brees is very underrated. He has had not one HOF or HOF caliber WR/RB in his career with Saints. Peyton has had Faulk, James, and the two WRs I mentioned. Favre had Sterling Sharpe, short stint,but still had him. Also, Reggie White is perhaps the 2nd best defensive player ever behind LT. Favre had him during his SB run and a KR/PR won MVP. Brees’ best defensive player was Darren Sharper. Big difference. We all have opinions and they will all vary. Jut my opinion on the topic.
Sorry, I’m on a touch screen . I got big fingers and they click the wrong letter here and there.
I would place Brees in the top 10 of all time QBS – not sure I would call that underrated. But it is a big high bar to get into the top 5/6, as I would agree with bachslunch on his list. Really hard for me to pull one of those out and put Brees in. And Favre may have 336 ints but is a 3x NFL MVP plus #2 in career passing yards and TDs (ahead of Brees). So I think a pretty strong case could be made for Favre in top 5 or certainly in top 10 and still above Brees. Again being in between 6th and 10th all time in QBS is very impressive for Brees and certainly not making him underrated.
Who here thinks who gets 1st Team All Pro at QB this year? To me, it’s between Ryan and Brady.
Usually goes to QB with most passing yards or TDs, so at this point Ryan is in the lead, plus playing for a solid playoff contender. Also will depend on how voters view Brady’s shorter season, and how remaining games play out for those two, plus Brees.
If Ryan gets it, it’ll place him on the fast track to the HOF(not locked, but with another 4-5 4k yard seasons he’ll probably make the HOF ). I honestly thought Matty Ice would melt a lot since his 500 yard game but he’s still on pace for 4th most yards in a season. He’s avg 325 ypg. Let’s say he avg 295 per to finish the year, he’ll end up with 5,017. Probably enough to lead the league and his TDs might end up in the 35-40 range, again could be enough to lead the league. He has the best passer rating among those who have played in every game. If he does end up with 5k and next 3 seasons avg 4,500, he’ll have 51,257 for career. If he gets to 35 TDs this year and avg 30 next 3, he’ll be at 327 for a career. All should project him in the top 10 with Peyton , Favre, Brady, Brees, Marino, Rivers, Eli, and Ben ahead of him. Pretty elite company. And that’s just projections for next 3 seasons after this one. I can see him playing until 35-37. 3 years ago if you told me Matt would have 350+ TDs and 55k+ yards I’d say no way. Highly unlikely. But, based on this season, it’s very realistic.
The 2017 semi-finalists will be announced Wednesday night at 8pm EST on NFL Network.
ok thanks bo knows 34
Can’t wait to see who makes the semi-finalist list! My predictions are:
Returning Finalists (10):
Kurt Warner
Terrell Davis
Edgerrin James
Terrell Owens
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Steve Atwater
John Lynch
Morten Andersen
Don Coryell
First Time Eligibles (3):
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jason Taylor
Brian Dawkins
Returning Semifinalists (8):
Roger Craig
Isaac Bruce
Torry Holt
Mike Kenn
Kevin Mawae
Karl Mecklenburg
Ty Law
Jimmy Johnson
Previous Semifinalists (2):
Steve Wisniewski
Steve Tasker
First-Time Semifinalists (2):
Zach Thomas
Dick Vermeil
From the Pro Football Hall of Fame website:
“The countdown to the Pro Football Hall Class of 2017 continues as the list of 94 nominees will be cut down to 26 semifinalists.”
Either a typo (which are plentiful on the PFHOF website) or there was a tie for the last spot in the Semi-Finalists list. Certainly helpful for guys like Sam Mills, Darren Woodson, Steve Wisniewski, Zack Thomas, etc.
Morten Andersen, K – 1982-1994 New Orleans Saints, 1995-2000, 2006-07 Atlanta Falcons, 2001 New York Giants, 2002-03 Kansas City Chiefs, 2004 Minnesota Vikings | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2013-17)
Steve Atwater, S – 1989-1998 Denver Broncos, 1999 New York Jets | (Times as a Semifinalist: 6 – 2012-17)
Tony Boselli, T – 1995-2001 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2002 Houston Texans (injured reserve) | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2016-17)
Isaac Bruce, WR – 1994-2007 Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams, 2008-09 San Francisco 49ers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2015-17)
Don Coryell, Coach – 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 9 – 2005, 2010-17)
Roger Craig, RB – 1983-1990 San Francisco 49ers, 1991 Los Angeles Raiders, 1992-93 Minnesota Vikings | (Times as a Semifinalist: 9 – 2009-17)
Terrell Davis, RB – 1995-2001 Denver Broncos | (Times as a Semifinalist: 11 – 2007-2017)
Brian Dawkins, S, 1996-2008 Philadelphia Eagles, 2009-2011 Denver Broncos | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2017)
Alan Faneca, G – 1998-2007 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2008-09 New York Jets, 2010 Arizona Cardinals | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2016-17)
Chris Hinton, G/T – 1983-89 Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts, 1990-93 Atlanta Falcons, 1994-95 Minnesota Vikings | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2017)
Torry Holt, WR – 1999-2008 St. Louis Rams, 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2015-17)
Joe Jacoby, T – 1981-1993 Washington Redskins | (Times as a Semifinalist: 7 – 2005, 2008, 2013-17)
Edgerrin James, RB – 1999-2005 Indianapolis Colts, 2006-08 Arizona Cardinals, 2009 Seattle Seahawks | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2015-17)
Jimmy Johnson, Coach – 1989-1993 Dallas Cowboys, 1996-99 Miami Dolphins | (Times as a Semifinalist: 4 – 2014-17)
Mike Kenn, T – 1978-1994 Atlanta Falcons | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2015-17)
Ty Law, CB – 1995-2004 New England Patriots, 2005, 2008 New York Jets, 2006-07 Kansas City Chiefs, 2009 Denver Broncos | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2015-17)
John Lynch, FS – 1993-2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2004-07 Denver Broncos | (Times as a Semifinalist: 5 – 2013-17)
Clay Matthews, LB – 1978-1993 Cleveland Browns, 1994-96 Atlanta Falcons | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2012, 2017)
Kevin Mawae, C/G – 1994-97 Seattle Seahawks, 1998-2005 New York Jets, 2006-09 Tennessee Titans | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2015-17)
Karl Mecklenburg, LB – 1983-1994 Denver Broncos | (Times as a Semifinalist: 6 – 2012-17)
Terrell Owens, WR – 1996-2003 San Francisco 49ers, 2004-05 Philadelphia Eagles, 2006-08 Dallas Cowboys, 2009 Buffalo Bills, 2010 Cincinnati Bengals | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2016-17)
Jason Taylor, DE – 1997-2007, 2009, 2011 Miami Dolphins, 2008 Washington Redskins, 2010 New York Jets | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2017)
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB – 2001-09 San Diego Chargers, 2010-11 New York Jets | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2017)
Hines Ward, WR – 1998-2011 Pittsburgh Steelers | (Times as a Semifinalist: 1 – 2017)
Kurt Warner, QB – 1998-2003 St. Louis Rams, 2004 New York Giants, 2005-09 Arizona Cardinals | (Times as a Semifinalist: 3 – 2015-17)
Darren Woodson, S – 1992-2003 Dallas Cowboys | (Times as a Semifinalist: 2 – 2015, 2017
neither of the guys you mentioned are sf’s
bslo got the first 10 semis right he got 3/4 first years correct the only one he missed was ward got the 8 returning semis correct the last 4 were not semis
Not honestly surprised with Chris Hinton. Famous for the Elway trade, but had a very solid career.
I am disappointed Zach Thomas didn’t make it. He is a HOFer without question with a 5/7/00s.
Brad: Totally agree regarding Zach Thomas. What is particularly perplexing is the fact Clay Matthews 0/4/none made the semifinalists over Thomas. There is really no reasonable basis for such a decision.
I should also add that I thought this would be Zach Thomas’s year given his teammate, Jason Taylor, was a first time eligible this year.
ill just ask this is it possible that thomas has to wait till the seniors pool
I don’t think Zach should wait that long. He still has like 15 years left. I think once they start electing the obvious such as Faneca, Moss, TO, Andersen, LT, TD, Jacoby, Mawae etc they’ll free up slots down the line. Yes, there are a plethora of HOF worthy players coming in 2018-2022, but as I mentioned the obvious, he’ll stack up well vs them. Too early to say he’ll fall to Senior Nominee. Remember a lot of us were probably thinking the last 3-4 years same thing about TD and he looks to be in by next year or 2019.
Clay Matthews, Roger Craig,Karl Mecklenburg, and Mike Kenn are going to be off the ballot very soon. As soon as they are and more and more are inducted the better for Zach’s enshrinement.
Stack up well vs them I mean as in the remaining candidates from 2023-2028 or so.
Hmm, well I definitely swung and missed on my guesses. About the only non-obvious thing I got correct was that Sam Mills wouldn’t be a semifinalist this time.
Matthews and Woodson have been semifinalists before, so their inclusion wasn’t too surprising. It’s clear that there is a group of guys around the edge of the semifinalist threshold that have about the same amount of support, because we have seen a lot of players bounce in and out of the semi list year to year.
Chris Hinton is a nice surprise. The offensive line position has the most depth of any position in the modern era pool in my opinion, and he’s one of the best of a group of great linemen coming to the end of their time as modern era candidates (Jacoby, Kenn, Hilgenburg, Lachey, Hull and Fralic are others). I don’t think he’ll have enough years left to get in before hitting the senior pool, but it’s a highly deserving honour that he’s made it to this cut down.
I’ve said plenty about Hines Ward in the past, and don’t really have anything new to add. I had a feeling that he might sneak onto this list, but that doesn’t mean I think he deserves it. There were way better candidates that the hall could have chosen in his spot (at the very least Zach Thomas), and he’s several years away from getting any serious consideration. I really would have rather seen someone on the back end of their modern-era eligibility and at a less competitive position get his spot instead, like Jay Hilgenburg, Leslie O’Neal, Cornelius Bennett, Eric Allen, Sam Mills, Steve Wisniewski or at his own position…Sterling Sharpe.
heres the ones i agree on hilgenberg o neal bennett allen mills wisniewski thomas and ill say it again sharpe had too short of a career
BSLO’s lost of names are certainly worthy of semi finalist consideration and would be in the 27-32 range of names.
As mentioned, the clock is ticking for quite a few names and 2018 will be the last year as a modern era candidate for Sharpe, as well as Craig, Jacoby, Hilgenburg and Fralic. Only Jacoby looks like sneaking in.
A year later it is Mecklenberg and Kenn in their final year, with Hinton and Lachey in 2020 and Kent Hull in 2021. That’s a lot of OL and should open things up for Boselli as a potential finalist sometime in the next decade.
ill agree about boselli bo knows as a potential finalist
Hey why no love for my predictions!!!…… LOL. I got 24/26 correct, only missing on Keen and Hinton (my 25 included Rodney Harrison). I agree that Z Thomas is deserving and once with 2017 and 2018 elections and modern eligibility runs out on some of these candidates, he is well positioned to move into top 25. Although 2018 semi-finalist could see as many as 5 or 6 first time candidates (Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Ronde Barber, Steve Hutchinson, Brian Urlacher), but first time classes in 2019 and 2020 are much weaker, so by then others deserving of semi-finalist slot will have room to move in.
No real surprises for me in terms of those on the semi-finalist list that have reasonable chance to making the final 15 list in January, and for me that would be:
Morton Anderson
Steve Atwater
Don Coryell
Terrell Davis
Brian Dawkins
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Edgerrin James
Jimmy Johnson
Ty Law
John Lynch
Terrell Owens
Jason Taylor
LaDainian Tomlinson
Kurt Warner
I think Hines Ward making the semi finalist first time on ballot is an indicator 1,000 receptions with 10,000+ yards and 3+ PBs gets you perhaps in the HOF on modern era ballot. Of course he won’t make finalist until the 2020s most likely, but it’s a step in a good direction. I had him on my semi finalist prediction and he was very close to not making it for me. Next three years (2017-2019), I expect of those who are on the ballot now to be in. And they are: Tomlinson,Warner,Lynch,Jacoby,Coryell (2017 class most likely), and those who are eligible now: Terrell Davis,Brian Dawkins,Jason Taylor,Alan Faneca, and Terrell Owens. There might be surprises but there will be first ballot HOFers as well. So once we get passed 2017-2023, we’ll start seeing the Zach Thomas’, Hines Ward’s in.
Paul, interesting you have Ty Law as a finalist. I’d personally replace him with Kevin Mawae. I feel his resume is stronger despite not winning 1 nor 3 SBs. Having Tom Brady helped win those 3 SBs. You can argue though Law was 2nd most important player, Seymour 3rd, and Adam V 4th. Anyway, Atwater making finalist isn’t far fetched. 3 safeties as finalist seems unrealistic given I believe only 9 of them are in the HOF as pure safeties. But Lynch seems to be getting inducted this year, so he’ll make the finalist, Dawkins has a very strong resume , so he’ll make it either next year or year after. It’s scary to think Seymour next year will be 5 years removed from league. Time flies!
why mawae over law
2/5/00s vs 6/8/00s. Yes different positions but one is overwhelmingly better than the other. It’s just my opinion.
The last 2-3 slots on the final 15 can often go a number of ways, would not surprise me to see Maewae in and Law out. My thoughts were Law in as he would be the only CB and another defensive player since they are underrepresented in PFHOF and on potential 2017 finalist list.
Balance of sides of the ball plays a factor, so not a bad way of thinking Law over Mawae. Once Faneca is inducted, which should be by 2019, Mawae I feel is next in line for O-linemen. Steve Hutchinson is a HOF worthy candidate but if Faneca won’t make it until his 4th or so ballot no way Steve gets in sooner.
Brad I can see you logic on ty law and kevin mawae thanks for the clearup
Cam Newton just became the youngest to get to 20,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards. Yes that is not even close to HOF worthy but; he is projected to get around 40,000-45,000 passing , 5,000 rushing, 250-275 passing TDs , and 65-75 rushing TDs barring an injury. Is that HOF worthy? I think so, especially with an NFL MVP.
I gotta say Paul, those were a couple of good calls on Clay Matthews and Darren Woodson! I expected a couple of former semifinalists to return but wouldn’t have guessed those two.
In terms of the finalists, I agree that Jimmy Johnson is likely headed back to the finalist list, but the last spot seems pretty up for grabs. I think Mawae is the most qualified, but could also see Law and Mecklenburg as possibilities. Personally I’d like to see Mecklenburg make it through if they pick a defensive player, so that he can have his case heard in the room at least once before hitting the senior pool.
I agree that there is likely to be a significant amount of change with the OL candidates over the next 5 years. In fact, 14 of the top 35 OL in the modern-era analysis I did last year (Jacoby, Hilgenburg, Kenn, Hinton, Hull, Lachey, Fralic along with unlikely hall of famers Ray Donaldson, Bart Oates. Jeff Bostic, Guy McIntyre, Max Montoya, Harris Barton and Tom Newberry) are set to hit the senior’s pool within the next 5 years. If you couple that with the likely induction of Faneca, and Mawae over the same time period, that’s almost half of the top 35.
Next year has a pretty good 1st-timer list with Hutchinson, Birk and Saturday, but the next 3 years after that will only see Brian Waters and Logan Mankins as solid incoming candidates. I think that this high level of turnover is good news for Boselli and maybe Steve Wisniewski, as the deck will be cleared for them to gain some momentum in their last few years on the modern ballot. Maybe I’ll even hold out hope for Richmond Webb to get a bump!
Speaking of O-Linemen, when Nick Mangold retires, most likely by the early to mid 2020s, what are peoples thoughts on how he fairs for the HOF? I may be Jet bias, but he is the best center from 2006-now. That alone isn’t HOF worthy but 3/7/likely 10s seems to be good enough for modern era enshrinement.
I’m not sure how much Mangold has got left in him. He’ll be 33 in January and his Prime years were 2008-12. By the time they come to pick the 2010s All Decade team I think he’ll be overtaken by Frederick and Kalil. Mangold’s resume is similar to Olin Kreutz who I don’t think is getting in.
The bar is very high for HOF centers when you think of Otto, Langer, Webster, Stephenson and Dawson. We all know how long Tingelhoff had to wait and off the top of my head he was a 5-time first team All Pro for a 4-time Conference Champion. You could also add Bruce Matthews, but he also starred at guard at tackle.
Pure centers:
Otto and Tinglehoff in the 60s
Langer and Webster in the 70s.
Stephenson in the 80s
Dawson in the 90s
Mawae in the 00s
Plus the great Bruce Matthews.
I don’t think Mangold is anywhere close to that class. HOVG for me personally.
I think mawae will eventually make the his am I right Bo knows
Historically, if a player is seen as the best center of their time, they make the HoF sooner or later. Nick Mangold (4/7/10s?) might well end up being that center. He certainly doesn’t seem to have much competition that I can see, mostly folks like Maurkice Pouncey (1/4/????) and Ryan Kalil (2/5/????). But time will tell.
I think Mangold is a lock to make it at some point. He’s likely to go down as the best center of his era, and as bachslunch said these players eventually get in.
Mick not getting in until SN was on the voters. They dropped the ball on him.
Steve Smith Sr now has 1,000 receptions. Hines Ward having made the semi’s this year on his first year being on the ballot bodes well for Steve Smith Sr. I do think 1k gets you in on modern era ballot with at least 3-4 PBs, but seems like 800-900 won’t (outside of Holt and Calvin of this era). Boldin to me makes the cut off. I think he just makes it. 3 PBs is very low and for that reason I am thinking it takes him a long time as of now. 1,100 receptions to me would boast his stock tremendously. Of the 14 members as of now with 1,000, 10 have under 1,100. 6 have called it quits, including Andre. Being in top 5 would really help his stock (thinking Fitz gets to 1,100 in about 3-4 games, maybe sooner).
Just looking down the all time receptions leaders, Brandon Marshall is next in line to get to 1k (925). Then next is Antonio Gates but he is 126 receptions away. Doubt he’ll get it. Believe it or not Greg Olsen is next on active board with 596. So, outside of Marshall and Gates, we won’t see another for at least 3-4 years. Down the line as in years, I expect Antonio Brown and Julio Jones to get to the 1,000 plateau, but they won’t until the 2020s.
Speaking of milestones, Antonio Brown finished yesterday’s game with exactly 8,000 career receiving yards. Julio Jones and AJ Green are both in the 7,000s.
Julius Peppers also broke his tie with Jason Taylor and moved into sole possession of sixth place in career sacks. With 140.5 sacks, Peppers is now just one behind Michael Strahan.
Could Peppers be a first ballot HOFer? 4/9/00s is pretty darn good. Better than Chris Doleman and Jason Taylor in PBs and ties Doleman in All Pros and beats out Jason Taylor in APs. He also beats them out in forced fumbles. Jason will get in within next 2-3 years. Hopefully JP decides to play another 1-2 more seasons. Peppers is not having a bad year for limited reps. Maybe he sticks around. Jared Allen could prevent first ballot being on ballot as well, but if Allen gets in within 1-2 seasons ; along with JP playing 2 more seasons, not many pass rushers left that threaten his enshrinement for first ballot. Makes me think how John Abraham fairs. I say Senior Nominee but we’ll see.
Also, Frank Gore just became the 12th player in American pro football history on the AFL/NFL/AAFC level to amass 16,000 yards from scrimmage and is 153 away from passing TO for 11th all time. He avg 84 per game this year. If he 70 from now on and plays in all 16, he’ll be 10th all time. There are talks he wants to play another season. If he does and avg 65 yards from scrimmage for all 16 he’ll be 8th all time. Now talking bold: if he keeps his pace up for this year and puts up 70 per game next year, he’ll be at 7th all time with just Rice, Smith, Payton, Faulk,LT, and Sanders ahead of him. Not bad company.
Peppers is not having a bad year* sorry for typo
I remember a lot of you were saying can Rivers and other keep up their high performance for years post age 34-35. While they might be outliers, Brady and Brees seem to be debunking the theory that once you hit 37-38 you’re going to fall. I do believe we are in a different era for QBs as far as health and primes. I think Brady and Brees still playing as top QBs bodes well for Rivers, Manning, Ryan, and possibly Palmer. I think most of us agree Rivers, Ben, and Eli are HOFers. What Re people’a thoughts on Palmer? What does he have to do to get into the discussion?
Brad,
Palmer has no chance and there is nothing he can do about it. He’s going to be 37 in December. While he can get 300 touchdown passes, his stats don’t age well in this era and only having 3 pro bowls in his career didn’t help.
I thought his injury shorten seasons in 2008 and 2014 combined with Carson retiring before the 2011 season didn’t help his stats at all. I thought Carson lost about 35 to 40 touchdown passes at least. I also think Carson is starting to decline based what he’s doing this season.
I agree. I mean short of winning the SB, he has no shot. But,,I do think he is ballot worthy.
just a curious ques why are you guys more focused on palmer not winning a super bowl
Because in this age where 4000 yard 40TD seasons are the norm, without multiple all pro teams, pro bowls, and playoff successes including SB wins, those QBS are no longer locks for the PFHOF
Rivers may have similar stats as far as yards and completions, but he is younger and has been way more consistent. His passer rating separates him from Palmer. And also, Rivers is 4 wins away from 100. Palmer is 14 away from it.
thank you paul thats the answer ive been looking for and i dont mean that sarcasically
Milestone’s to look for this week: Eli needs 109 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton for 8th all time. Fitzgerald needs 71 yards to pass Andre Johnson for 10th all time. He also needs 3 receptions to pass Tim Brown for 5th, 10 for 4th passing Cris Carter, 11 to pass Marvin Harrison, for 3rd. Julius Peppers needs 2 sacks to pass Strahan for 5th all time. All are well in position for HOF, but as they climb the ranks, closer they get to first ballot status.
Darrelle Revis is hinting towards retiring. Is he a sure fire HOFer (1-3 ballots)or will he have to wait a long time?
Sure fire hall of famer. The only drawback ito his career is that it was relatively short. But as a 4 time all pro, 7 time pro bowler, likely all decade member, he gets in. Add to that a super bowl win and the “revis island” mystic, ihe has locked up sure fire status.
Re Revis: one can also include him on a short list of best cover corners, which should also help get him in.
Agreed. Sure fire. Revis shut down Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, TO, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and others. I may be Jets bias, but I think he was better than Deion, because he shut down a longer list of HOFers and AP/PB WRs. And he , at times, tackled hard. Deion had the reputation for not.
In Deion’s defense, he was such an elite cover corner that he didn’t get thrown on much. He didn’t need to tackle very often.
Gronk out 8 weeks. Man, this stinks. Arguably an AP season, especially given his YPC, along with Greg Olsen. No way now. Will he get released? Rumor has it he might end of the year. Will he get the TD treatment for HOF? We’ll see. But, Gronk might fall very short in terms of PBs , receptions, and yards to Tony, Antonio, and Witten. A big if, but if he can get to 750 receptions, 9-10k yards, and 80-85 TDs, he’ll get in on modern era ballot. But, time will tell.
Since Gronk is likely done for season and AFC looks wide open, Ravens are well alive for a shot at a SB if they make the playoffs. If they do win and Flacco is MVP, would that put him in conversation for HOF? I say yes. Long shot he has a HOF worthy case, but not unrealistic he wins 1 more SB. He did it once before on a historic playoff run. He would then need around 41-44k yards and 300 TDs to have a solid resume. No PBs is a big issue though.
Seems like plenty of big “what if”s for Flacco
As to Gronk if he never plays again, his career is looking more like T Davis and since we already know how long and hard it has been for TD, I suspect Gronk’s wait for the PFHOF will be as long if not longer for election since the voters really do not like the shorter career candidates.
Gore is now 8th all time in rushing yards. If anyone thinks that’s not HOF worthy they are bias . I expect him to get in within first 8-9 ballots. Now, if plays one more season and ends up #6-7 on rushing list , he’ll get in sooner, perhaps 5-6th ballot. His yàrds per rush is much better than The Bus, Jerome Bettis, who got in on his 5th if not mistaken.
Peppers now up to 5th all time in sacks ahead of Strahan. Fitzgerald 3rd in receptions and has passed Andre Johnson into 10th place in receiving yards.
Big Ben (297) is also on the verge of becoming the 3rd QB from the Class of 2004 this season to hit 300 TD passes. Aaron Rodgers (284) will probably have to wait until next September.
Any RB in the top ten career rushing list is going to get consideration, but recent voting history shows lacking all pro, all decade, MVP or SBs, players like Gore are going to have a long wait for election. I think Peppers has made his PFHOF case stronger with likely election within 5-8 years, and Fitzgerald has all of the numbers and respect to be 1st year eligible elected.
The scary part about Fitz is he might play 1-2 more seasons. He’s avg. 7.3 receptions per game this season. Let’s say he avg. 6 from now til end of season and then avg 6 per game next two seasons, he’ll then have 1,322 receptions. That’s definitely first ballot territory.
Why are we always trying to rush superstars out the door? Fitzgerald is only 33 years old. He could play another 5 years. Steve Smith is currently 37. Anquan Boldin is 36. Both are still productive starters on likely playoff teams. And Fitzgerald has had far fewer injuries than either. Yes, Fitzgerald could retire this year or next, but I hope he plays as long as Rice and Tim Brown did. That said, I think he is already very close to first ballot territory (assuming he isn’t up against some crazy combination of Brady, Brees, Peterson, Revis, and Joe Thomas). He is already the greatest player in Cardinals history (with the possible exception of Ernie Nevera), which will help immensely.
I’m not rushing him out the door. I remember reading a report he might retire this year but another him saying that was false. I am with you. I hope he plays another 5 and challenge Rice’s reception record, which would be insane. Most of us thought it wouldn’t be broken, even in the era of high powered offenses (throwing a lot). Anyway, what are people’s thoughts on Boldin’s candidacy? I say modern era- HOFer but won’t get in until last 3-4 ballots. Too many big names will be left then.
Is Eli approaching first ballot status? His int total and passer rating aren’t good. But, 2x SB winner, 2x SB MVP, and possibly 60k in yards and 400 TDs could get him to a possible first ballot enshrinement.
Fitzgerald won’t seriously approach Rice, but the difference in their respective QBs is startling. Still shake my head at what could have been if the Cardinals had somehow found a way to put a top five QB in his prime with Fitzgerald (and ideally kept Boldin too). Would have been special…
Yea, you could argue Rice’s 3rd best QB , Rich Gannon, was better than what Fitz has right now in Carson Palmer.
With lack of top 3 career numbers, all pro, pro bowls and all decade I do not think Eli is 1st ballot selection, but with those very good career numbers and 2 SBs (with MVPs) he will get in within 5-8 years. His case is stronger then many others on here and other discussions have given him if he ends up with long and very good career otherwise.
I can see Eli being in top 4-5 in most passing stats. Is that enough for 1st ballot? Probably not, but he could get within 50-60 games of Favre’s start streak believe it or not.
Fitz just said ” I won’t catch Rice, Tony”. Might be foreshadowing for his retirement this year.
Matt Ryan just tied Steve Young for 29th all time in passing TDs, passed Matt Hasselbeck for 22nd in yards,and extended his NFL record for consecutive 200 yard games with his 52nd. Crazy to think Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Favre, Marino, Moon etc never done that. To me, that’s a HOF like accomplishment. Sure, 300 yards is way more impressive in this era, but the fact he has that record for 200 speaks volumes to how good he is. And I’d like to add Odell Beckham Jr to my HOF list. He might have been a 2 year wonder entering this year, but he has shown otherwise. He is well on pace for HOF. As a Jet fan it pains me to say that lol.
Some non-skill position players who added another pro bowl nod to their resumes (5 or more): OT Joe Thomas (10th), OT Jason Peters (9th), G Marshal Yanda, CB Patrick Peterson (6th), C Maurkice Pouncey, DE Cameron Wake, DT Geno Atkins, DT Ndamukong Suh, LB Von Miller, S Eric Berry, DT Gerald McCoy (5th).
Is Joe Thomas on his way to 1st ballot enshrinement?
I think its safe to say Joe Thomas and Jason Peters are Pro Football Hall of Fame inductees. Joe Thomas to me is a first ball player.
Marshal Yanda’s 6 pro bowls and 2 1st all pro teams has him on making the ballot, but still has a do a bit more for getting inducted into the pro football hall of fame. I have to see if he’s going to make his 3rd 1st all pro team.
Patrick Peterson has a great start to his career, but he’s only about a couple pro bowls away from a 100 percent chance of getting inducted into the Pro Football Hall of fame. I think could be getting his 4th 1st all pro team.
I rather not comment on the players that got their 5th pro bowl from a non skill position outside of saying that its too bad that Cameron Wake didn’t get his in the NFL before his 27th birthday. I saying that because those years he’s missing is going to cause him to fall short of getting inducted into Canton. What got me is he’s going to be 35 next year and I’m guessing he only has 1 to 3 more seasons left in him.
After PBing 4 of his first 5 seasons of career Suh was looking like a sure fire HOFer. Then first year with Fins he didn’t. Now that he was named to another PB , he might actually make the HOF the way it’s trending. I say 2-3 more and he gets in.
I’ve got Yanda having a profile of 4/5/10s? So far. He’s got two other years with non-AP 1st team all pro selections.
Sorry, 4/6/10s? Instead.
I seen enough of Suh since he was a Lion. He’s a great defensive tackle, but I don’t know how his reputation of him being a dirty player is going to hurt him with Hall of Fame voters based on what I seen with Steve Wisniewski so far. Steve Wisniewski had 8 pro bowls, 2 first team all pros, 6 2nd team all pro teams, and 2nd all 1990’s team, but never was a finalist yet for the hall of fame due to him being known as a dirty player in his era.
The only thing is Ndamukong Suh has more 1st team all pro teams than Wisniewski did. That might be enough for getting him inducted into the Hall of fame if he gets a couple more Pro bowls despite his well earned reputation as a dirty player.
Robert Mathis announces his retirement. I know his 1/5/none with under 130 sacks isn’t exactly HOF worthy but he had a very good career. Ballot worthy. Him and Freeney were arguably a top 5-10 pass rushing duo ever. Mathis’ 53 forced fumbles is very impressive. Might be an NFL record since they kept track of the stat.
I was going to wait after the playoffs to make comments on a whole group of players retiring since Steve Smith is 89 percent show he’s going to retire and about Robert Mathis.
I agree that Robert Mathis isn’t going into canton. I looked at the amount of pass rushers from his era and how many the voters would allow. Dwight Freeney did have the better resume of the 2 players and I see him as a possible Canton Candidate.
What also hurts Robert Mathis is the Colts teams he was on was more known for their offense. even in the Peyton Manning era The Colts defense had a top 5 defense in yards allowed in 2007, but that’s it. They also had top 15 defense in yards allowed an additional 3 times. That in returns means the voters would be looking more on the offensive side of the ball instead of the defense for the most part.
The Peyton Manning era that had Robert Mathis aka 2003 to 2010 wasn’t known as a good defense stopping the run. That era besides having Mathis, had Freeney and Bob Sanders. Those team were good against the pass, but fact they had issues stopping the run pointed to how the Peyton Manning era with the Colts only had 1 Super Bowl ring Besides Peyton did problems in the Playoffs sometimes.
I think Colts in the 2003 to 2010 is something the voters are going look at for what caused those teams problems. The fact is Defensive Lineman and Linebackers are supposed be the first two lines of defense against the run.
had Bob Sanders, Mathis and Freeney on those team, but those teams usually was either poor against the run or were average all around.
What’s everyone’s opinion on Steve Smith’s road to the HOF? I say for sure will get in some day. But, his problem will be the amount of WRs left on ballot in 2022. Pecking order right now for those eligible seems to be Moss, TO, Holt. and Bruce. Then we will have to deal with Wayne, Johnson’s, and Ward. Not sure about the order.
The 15 finalists will be announced Tuesday at 8pm EST on NFL Network.
Frank Gore ended up over the 1000 rushing yard mark this season again (1065), and is at 13,065 career rushing yards, still currently 8th all time. If he gains ca. 700 yards next year, he’ll move into 5th place ahead of Eric Dickerson (13,259), Jerome Bettis (13,662), and Ladanian Tomlinson (13,684). And if he reaches the 1000 yard mark, he would be a few yards shy of Curtis Martin (14,101).
I think Steve Smith has a real chance at the PFHOF but it will be a long haul, 10+ years on the ballot is very possbile. Gore is putting up some impressive late career numbers and ending up 5th or 6th in career rushing will be hard for PFHOF voters to ignore, but again looking at perhaps 8-10 year wait on the ballot.
And in advance of the announcement of the 2017 finalists this evening, here one more final time is my prediction:
Morton Anderson
Steve Atwater
Don Coryell
Terrell Davis
Brian Dawkins
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Edgerrin James
Jimmy Johnson
Ty Law
John Lynch
Terrell Owens
Jason Taylor
LaDainian Tomlinson
Kurt Warner
Morten Andersen, Kicker – 1982-1994 New Orleans Saints, 1995-2000, 2006-07 Atlanta Falcons, 2001 New York Giants, 2002-03 Kansas City Chiefs, 2004 Minnesota Vikings
Tony Boselli, Tackle – 1995-2001 Jacksonville Jaguars
Isaac Bruce, Wide Receiver – 1994-2007 Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams, 2008-09 San Francisco 49ers
Don Coryell, Coach – 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers
Terrell Davis, Running Back – 1995-2001 Denver Broncos
Brian Dawkins, Safety – 1996-2008 Philadelphia Eagles, 2009-2011 Denver Broncos
Alan Faneca, Guard – 1998-2007 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2008-09 New York Jets, 2010 Arizona Cardinals
Joe Jacoby, Tackle – 1981-1993 Washington Redskins
Ty Law, Cornerback – 1995-2004 New England Patriots, 2005, 2008 New York Jets, 2006-07 Kansas City Chiefs, 2009 Denver Broncos
John Lynch, Free Safety – 1993-2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2004-07 Denver Broncos
Kevin Mawae, Center/Guard – 1994-97 Seattle Seahawks, 1998-2005 New York Jets, 2006-09 Tennessee Titans
Terrell Owens, Wide Receiver – 1996-2003 San Francisco 49ers, 2004-05 Philadelphia Eagles, 2006-08 Dallas Cowboys, 2009 Buffalo Bills, 2010 Cincinnati Bengals
Jason Taylor, Defensive End – 1997-2007, 2009, 2011 Miami Dolphins, 2008 Washington Redskins, 2010 New York Jets
LaDainian Tomlinson, Running Back – 2001-09 San Diego Chargers, 2010-11 New York Jets
Kurt Warner, Quarterback – 1998-2003 St. Louis Rams, 2004 New York Giants, 2005-09 Arizona Cardinals
I’m shocked they picked Bruce over Holt. Holt has a better AP/PB/ADT resume. And no Atwater is a surprise.
Atwater and James look to have dropped off this time around. Not overly shocking since they are 3rd in the pecking order at their positions. Bruce over Holt is a surprise, but he definitely has the edge when it comes to counting stats. I’m glad to see one of the two break onto the finalist list, but unless Owens gets in this year, they will likely drop off next year once Moss is eligible.
I’m happy to see Mawae make the finalist list this time around, but I’m somewhat disappointed about Law moving on. Guys like Atwater and Mecklenburg have had a much longer wait, and in my opinion were more deserving to make the finalist list than him. That said, it’s hard to argue that there is a more deserving CB eligible than Law, so I guess it makes sense to make a push for him.
The big surprise here for me is Tony Boselli. I can’t recall a more out of left field push for a player in recent memory. Man has he picked up momentum fast!
i agree bslo about boselli that came out of nowhere
Once Moss and TO get in, Holt and Bruce will be next in line. Then the rest as we know who they are, will be anyone’s guess as far as the order. But, Tony Boselli is a surprise, but he is HOF worthy and would like to see him get in before his modern era eligibility is up, which I think he will get in. Joe Jacoby looked destined for Senior Nominee but the way it looks, he’ll be inducted this year, unless TO leaps him. But, hope doesn’t happen. TO has many years left and I see him inducted in 2019, Moss as a possible first ballot. I kind of wished Steve Smith played one more season so he can wait for one more class to be inducted before he is eligible. He will probably get in on 9th-10th ballot, but the pool of WRs might be 3-5 deep, so could wait longer perhaps.
Next year’s first year eligibles are strong with Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Brian Urlacher, Steve Hutchinson and Ronde Barber. It wouldn’t be a surprise if all 5 made it to the Last 15 and replaced the 5 that will be elected this year.
The addition of Dawkins has likely bumped out Atwater and it’s going to get tougher with Reed and Polamalu on the ballot in the next few years.
Tomlinson should be a lock so that potentially opens up a spot for Edge again in 2018. Jimmy Johnson realistically needs to see Coryell elected first before he stands a chance. It would’ve been fun (and awkward) to see the two JJs elected together.
with what you said bo knows i agree totally
no major surprises, actually nice to see the new additions and at least I got 12 out of 15 right! But nothing changes in regards to my election prediction of:
Don Coryell
Joe Jacoby
John Lynch
LaDainian Tomlinson
Kurt Warner
Kenny Easley
Paul Tagliabue
Jerry Jones
Would anyone blame me if I’m not completely sold on warner
I can see the debate against Warner as his mid career years with the NY Giants are pretty bad (as I have posted here and we have discussed at length), but it is really hard not to seriously consider a 2x NFL MVP (and others of those not in or going to be in PFHOF??), plus taking two teams to three SBs, winning one (and SB MVP). His career awards (2/4) and numbers are also pretty solid and comparable to other QBs in the PFHOF. I think he will also benefit as the best QB on the ballot until Manning arrives. And PFHOF voters love the QBs, WRs and RBs. Personally I do not have issue with his election to PFHOF as he stands pretty well among the current finalists and certainly better than some other recent PFHOFers and also some existing PFHOF QBs.
Hey guys, I’ve posted what we’re seeing on social media for the official class of 2017:
https://www.zoneblitz.com/2017/02/04/2017-pro-football-hall-fame-class-announced/