2014 NFC North preview

Andy: Well, we go from probably the worst division in the NFC to … one at least a bit more interesting. I don’t think any of these teams are going to the Super Bowl, but there are at least some competitive story lines.

Jared Allen goes from Minnesota to Chicago. Julius Peppers goes from Chicago to Green Bay – I heard someone talking about Peppers and Clay Matthews moving around a lot and rushing the passer … I hope they get him, because the coverage is going to suck. But anyway – new coaching staffs in Detroit and Minnesota, new WRs and TE Eric Ebron to team with Calvin Johnson in Detroit and a new QB, at least eventually, in Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota.

The hierarchy probably doesn’t change much, in my eyes, at least this year. Aaron Rodgers is a top three QB in the game and with Eddie Lacy at RB, that offense is multi-dimensional and scary. The defense isn’t going to be great, but it’ll be good enough in the regular season. The Bears also lack on defense, but Matt Forte and the WR combo … that’s tough. Detroit has to prove it’s better than a mid-level team before I’ll believe at this point. And the Vikings are better, but not quite good enough to fight for playoffs yet in my mind – give them a year under Mike Zimmer first. Your thoughts?

Tony: I don’t think the Packers are as much of a lock as their fan base seems to think. Of course, their fan base thinks that every year, no matter what their real outlook is. If they keep all of their weapons healthy, they have a shot, but they haven’t had a lot of success staying healthy as of late—looking at their ProFootballReference page from last year, the only guys that started all 16 games are guys you really don’t want starting at all, outside of Jordy Nelson. They lost their starting center, and even though I wouldn’t have been able to have told you before he left that his name was Evan Dietrich-Smith, apparently it was a big enough deal that Rodgers wasn’t happy about the loss. Their big time TE is contemplating taking an insurance settlement retirement package. But they did manage to sign Jordy Nelson to an extension, probably because he meets the main criteria to get big money in Green Bay…

Meanwhile, the Bears have assembled a better team than I ever like to give them credit for. They only went 8-8, but they scored the second most points in the NFL in Marc Trestman’s first year at the helm—another year like that, and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer will probably start getting the call for head coaching openings. Especially since he did it with perennial whiner Jay Cutler and perennial backup Josh McCown. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery make that possible, of course, along with Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett—all four had at least 65 catches in 2013. Add in some defensive upgrades(Allen, Adrian Wilson, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young) and four defensive draft picks in the first four rounds, and the defense should improve. If the defense makes it to the middle of the pack, they are my pick for the division.

As for the Vikings and Lions, in the NFC North I wouldn’t rule them out 100 percent – but neither has shown that they’ve made enough progress yet to challenge Green Bay or Chicago this year. The Vikings appear headed in the right direction with the new coaching staff and ditching their previous offensive and defensive schemes, but will likely need a full year at least to fully realize the benefits. Especially the defense, which is changing from the passive cover 2 to an aggressive scheme.

And the Lions … well, the Lions are the Lions.

Andy: I agree that the Lions need to prove it, but I’m not going to dismiss them completely. I think the TE – Eric Ebron – has a chance to be a game changer. Adding Golden Tate to complement Calvin Johnson should be good both for Megatron and Matt Stafford, too. So I do think they’ve got a shot to be better.

It’s not the NFC West in terms of competitiveness from top to bottom but you’ve got four teams that should be pretty interesting to watch.

I’d forgotten about the defensive additions Chicago made. They probably could give Green Bay a run. I still think the Packers are better. Overall I think the winner of this division has a chance to make more noise than the winner of the NFC East, but I’m not convinced that team will be better than the fifth or sixth best team in the NFC overall.

I am really getting excited to see what Norv Turner’s offense looks like. I started doing some research on his past stops as offensive coordinator while researching a couple of our Buy/Sell posts and I think he’s got more talent to work with on this offense than he has had since he was the coordinator in Dallas back in the early part of the 2000s. The QB position is a bit in flux, but at WR, TE and RB … Cordarrelle is no Irvin, but Rudolph could be a poor man’s Novacek, I’d take Greg Jennings over Alvin Harper at number two WR and the only reason Emmitt is better than Adrian Peterson at this point is that he had more years to accumulate the stats.

Tony: The thing on the Vikings offense that concerns me most might be the offensive line. Regardless of whether it is Cassel or Bridgewater starting, if they get time, they should be decent enough to produce enough to keep defenses honest. But the line needs to get back to their 2012 level of play to get there—not necessarily producing a 2,100 yard rusher, but at least providing some time. I mean, even Christian Ponder was serviceable in 2012.

The Lions also brought in a new coaching staff, meaning the only team in the NFC North to not change their staff in the last 2 seasons is the Packers (which is incredible, if you live near enough Packer fans to remember them calling for Mike McCarthy AND Ted Thompson to be fired midway through the 2010 season…you know, the year they won the Super Bowl).

Personally I’m not convinced that Jim Caldwell is the answer the Lions are looking for, but I’m rarely impressed by retread coaches who were fired just a couple of seasons before. He took a Tony Dungy Colts team to the Super Bowl his rookie season, and got progressively worse from there. Yes, losing Peyton Manning hurt, but the Colts showed no resolve in his final season. He was then somehow credited with being a quarterback guru due to the Ravens winning a Super Bowl, even though in his only full season under Caldwell, Joe Flacco actually regressed significantly, having his worst year ever from an efficiency standpoint.

I think the North will ultimately be very competitive, but unless they somehow get a lucky draw and face the winner of the NFC East, I’m not sure any of the teams will make noise in the playoffs.

Andy: I’m with you on Caldwell. He’s not the worst retread coach who was a candidate for a top job last off-season, but he certainly wasn’t an inspirational hire. At the same time, if he is average he’s an upgrade over Jim Schwartz. And an upgrade over Schwartz could be all they need to make some real noise. The Lions will be an interesting team to watch.

Predicted order of finish