2014 AFC South preview

Andy: I don’t think Houston is as bad a team as the 2-14 record would indicate last season. Jacksonville is improving. And Tennessee has not been terrible the last couple years. But it’s pretty obvious in my eyes that unless Andrew Luck takes a dramatic step back in 2014 that the AFC South is going to go through Indianapolis again.

Tony: The Jaguars actually have been more impressive in preseason than I expected—not that winning one of the first two preseason games means much, but they might have already surpassed their 2014 win total I would have projected them at. Still, despite taking the highest QB in the draft, the Jags appear to be the team most convinced to take the right approach with rookie quarterbacks, seemingly content to use Chad Henne for the season regardless.

Expectations have risen for rookie quarterbacks with the success that teams have had with rookie quarterbacks like Luck, RG3, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton—but they are still the exception, not the rule, in my opinion. For every one of them, there is a Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden, who have not panned out to the level expected/hoped. Not to mention that none of the aforementioned QBs have led their team to the Super Bowl.

The Tennessee Titans are actually the team I am most curious about in the South this year, with new head coach Ken Whisenhunt stepping in during a make or break year for Jake Locker, who could easily make the list above. He’s shown flashes, though, and was putting up career numbers last year when he was injured.

Definitely agree that the Colts are the team to beat in the South again in 2014—although with JJ Watt, and Jadaveon Clowney, there certainly are chances that even the lowly Texans could take a crack at them. They still need a lot of help, especially at quarterback, but any team with those defensive ends could wreak havoc on a team’s season on any given play.

Andy: I generally agree with you on the QB thing. And even if Blake Bortles were the second coming of Dan Marino, it’s not like the Jaguars were going to be a Super Bowl or even playoff contender this year. I do think Jacksonville is in the right direction but there’s nothing wrong from their perspective to letting Henne take the beating for a year while the team gets better.

Tennessee lost Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Alterraun Verner and its coaching staff after a frustrating season. Word is Jake Locker has looked good. He needs to stay healthy. If he does, he’s got some receivers – Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright are young and improving. Bishop Sankey has fresh legs. Michael Oher underachieved in Baltimore, but theoretically should help upgrade the line. Whisenhunt is a master with QBs. Maybe there’s more to this team than expected, but one would think it’d take more than a single season to figure all that out.

Texans won’t lose 14 games, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably the worst starting QB in the division so I don’t see them as a threat to Indy.

It will be interesting to see what the Colts look like this season. The offensive coordinator was heavily criticized for making Andrew Luck run a more balanced attack last year and he says they’re going to throw more. They should – I’d take Luck to T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks over runs to Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw.

Either way, nobody is touching the Colts in the South.

Tony: The only thing that might scare Colts fans is that they’ve essentially found themselves right back where they were with Peyton Manning—one hit away from being once again a decimated franchise. Matt Hasselbeck and Chandler Harnish aren’t exactly keeping defensive coordinators up at night. Figuring out some sort of balance would be good for the franchise, but I don’t see it happening this year.

You do have to wonder a little bit about the long-term goals in Houston. You can’t blame them for dumping Matt Schaub, but Fitzpatrick is a one or two-year solution at best, making the decision to wait until the fourth round on Tom Savage a questionable call, even if the team really likes him. Jimmy Garoppolo went just three spots before the Texans pick at the top of the third round—given his seeming anointment as the successor to Tom Brady, the Texans better hope waiting to take C.J. Fiedorowicz pays off, and that none of the later QBs (Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger) turn into anything in the short term. Their decision to cut Andre Brown already, given Arian Foster’s health, is also curious. Add in Andre Johnson’s discontent over rebuilding, and they may not lose 14 games, but it still may be a long season.