2014 AFC East preview

Tony: The AFC East has been as anti-climactic as Major League Baseball’s National League East was in the 90s and early 2000s, with the New England Patriots playing the role of the Atlanta Braves, winning the division approximately the last 127 years (ok, technically it’s only 11 of the last 13 seasons). Much like the Braves, they have little to show for it in the last decade as well—the Patriots have been to three of the last seven Super Bowls, but they haven’t won since the 2004 season.

There’s little reason to believe that this year will be any different—much like the last few, not because the Patriots are that much better than they were a year ago, but because their division rivals continue to just mire themselves in a sea of muck that prevents them from taking the next step.

The Dolphins seem most likely to put up some sort of challenge to the Patriots, but they’re being led by a quarterback that no one seems to really believe is finally the heir to the Dan Marino throne. They thought they solved their running game woes of 2013, but appear to have learned what the Denver Broncos learned before them, that when you put faith in Knowshon Moreno, he will disappoint—it’s only when your expectations have lowered to basically zero that he will succeed.

At least the Dolphins don’t have the 49ers on the schedule, so we can hopefully avoid hearing much about the whole Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito fiasco—at least until Incognito goes all Chris Kluwe and sues someone for being fired from his job.

The Bills seem to be taking some steps in the right direction, but the jury is still out on EJ Manuel, and the death of owner Ralph Wilson, and subsequent sale of the team (and rumors of a move north of the border…or to Donald Trump) could prove to be a distraction and/or lead to a revolt amongst fans. On the positive side, how awesome would it not be to have to hear announcers invoking the ridiculous “You’re fired” line from Donald Trump’s surprising amazing inexplicably constantly renewed anti-reality show The Apprentice? There’s got to be an NBC supporting the show of a team owner conflict of interest to explore there, too, if he does in fact end up with the team.

And then, there’s the Jets…the team so dysfunctional that their self-proclaimed mascot quit on the team. Granted, that was 2012…but I still love bringing it up. I was shocked to see that the Jets finished 8-8 last year, two games better than 2012 and tied for second in the division. I severely question whether they have gotten any better in 2014—they added Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, but also invited quarterback controversy with Michael Vick breathing down Geno Smith’s neck. And I don’t see any improvement on the defensive side of the ball whatsoever.

Andy: Wow. There’s a lot of anger built up in your opening here, particularly in the Trump stuff. All of which I agree with, by the way. He’s a douchebag.

I also pretty much agree with your assessment of the division. The Patriots are still the top dog – though for the first time in the Brady/Belichick era that I can recall, there’s almost more excitement about the potential improvement of the defense rather than over the explosiveness of the offense.

The offense still lacks a proven go-to receiver, other than the oft-injured Rob Gronkwoski. But I do like that as Brady has aged over the last couple years, Belichick has recognized this and brought in several running backs to help diversify and balance that side of the ball. I expect Shane Vereen to have a nice year, Stevan Ridley to rebound from a tough season and, disturbingly, former Wisconsin Badger RB James White to contribute.

As far as the rest of the division, I agree, it’s a mess. I guess I like the Jets the next most. I’m a bit higher on the Vick signing than you are. He’s old and fragile, but he could bring relevance to a couple of receivers, including Decker, if he ends up playing. Regardless, no matter what you think of Rex Ryan, he generally manages to put together a defense that will keep the score low in most games, giving his questionable offense — which did add Chris Johnson … yawn … a chance to pull out some games.

I’m curious to see what Sammy Watkins can do in Buffalo, but I’d be more curious if EJ Manuel wasn’t the QB. I really just don’t see him ever growing into that job.

And Miami … I’ve seen a couple places where the Dolphins are picked to be the league’s worst team. I’m not quite sure they’re that bad – I actually like Tannehill better than some seem to. But there’s no run game, the OL is a complete rebuild after last year’s fiasco … maybe they are that bad.

Tony: Not sure I understand how someone could pick the Dolphins to be the worst team in the league, when I don’t think they’re even close to the worst team in their division. They overhauled an offensive line that needed overhauling. They’ve got some sneaky weapons in the passing game, if Tannehill can progress, and the defense is still adequate, especially along the line.

I actually think the Bills could be the most improved team in the division, if they can avoid the ownership distraction (and the new owner doesn’t start threatening to move, which would destroy the fan base).

And the Jets? Everyone not involved in making the decision appears to be in agreement that Vick is a better option at QB than Geno Smith, but that’s like saying that the 1981 Plymouth Horizon is a better option than the 1971 Ford Pinto. Both might get you to where you’re trying to get (the end of the season), but neither will get you there feeling good about yourself, and both may break down along the way—Smith because he’s terrible, and Vick because he’s old and fragile. I’m not even sure which is the Pinto, and which is the Horizon.

Andy: I like how we’re about 1,000 words into this preview and we’ve given the one legit team – the Patriots – about 175 words. The one question that seems to come up with them every year these days is are they good enough to win the Super Bowl. If the defense, which was injury ravaged and largely terrible last year, stays healthy I think they can go as far as the AFC Championship game. There are few standout teams in the AFC. Can they get past Denver? Questionable.

As for the rest of the division, sum it up this way. Tannehill. Manuel. Smith. Vick. We’ve spent probably too many words already focused on this trio.

Predicted order of finish

	Andy	Tony
1	Patriots	Patriots
2	Jets	Dolphins
3	Bills	Bills
4	Dolphins	Jets

Other division previews:

AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West