Well, the divisional round of playoffs wasn’t quite as spectacular in its drama and excitement as wild card weekend was,
but there were still some quality football games. And the results set up two fantastic match-ups in the Championship games.
As far as last week’s hypothetical wagers go, San Diego’s late rally wasn’t enough to upset the Broncos, but it did give the Chargers a cover, which dropped me from 3-1 to 2-2 against the spread. I did go 3-1 in over/under bets, so not all was lost.
So, for the playoffs, I’m 3-5 against the spread and 4-4 in over/unders. Not going to hit early retirement that way: Still plenty of room for improvement. And it doesn’t bode well. I feel like I know who is going to win this weekend’s games, but I think the spreads are right on the nose and I expect two close, tough games (Odds current as of 3:45 p.m. Wednesday per VegasInsider.com).
But I’ll take my chances:
Sunday, January 19
New England at Denver
2:00 central, CBS
Line: Denver -5
Over/Under: 56
Both of these offenses are prolific, but I don’t necessarily see a ridiculously high scoring game. Both teams have been running the ball more throughout the playoffs, particularly New England in the Patriots’ one-sided win over Indianapolis last weekend. Tom Brady’s playoff resume is stronger than Peyton Manning’s is, but New England has suffered a ridiculous number of important injuries that I think sway the game Denver’s way. I’ll take the dog plus the points, as it’s foolish to discount Bill Belichick and gang, but in what could be Peyton’s last chance to achieve a second ring, he’ll get the job done.
Picks: New England +5, Under 56
San Francisco at Seattle
5:30 central, FOX
Line: Seattle -3.5
Over/Under: 39.5
I’ve been looking forward to this game since … draft day? It was my feeling that these were the NFC’s two best teams heading into the season and I believe that firmly today. San Francisco is a better team than it was when Seattle flattened the 49ers in September. They’ve won eight straight, including two road playoff games. And the Seahawks did not look great in knocking New Orleans out last weekend. That said, winning three on the road is difficult in the playoffs and the Seahawks are the number one seed for a reason. In a close game, I’m sticking with the Hawks straight up – but taking the 49ers and the points against the spread. Call it 20-17.
Picks: San Francisco +3.5, Under 39.5
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