Six first-year candidates are among the 27 modern-era semifinalists still alive for potential induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s class of 2013.
Offensive linemen Jonathan Ogden and Larry Allen, defensive linemen Michael Strahan and Warren Sapp, kicker Morten Andersen and safety John Lynch make up an incredibly deep pool of first-year candidates still in contention. Another first-time semifinalist is Kansas City defensive back Albert Lewis, a four-time Pro Bowler and two-time First Team All-Pro who retired after the 1998 season.
Otherwise there were few major surprises in the announcement. The survivors also include three wide receivers, each of whom many voters and observers believe are qualified for Hall enshrinement, who seem to be canceling each other out in the final voting process: Andre Reed, Cris Carter and Tim Brown.
Disappearing from last year’s semifinalist lists from recent years include linebacker Clay Mathews, defensive back Donnie Shell and contributor Ron Wolf. One notable absence from the list is Steve Sabol, one of the forces behind NFL Films, who died from brain cancer in September. Sabol’s father, Ed Sabol, founded the company in 1962 and was enshrined in Canton in 2011.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee culled the list of nominees to 27 from 127, which had been comprised of 89 former players, 14 coaches and 24 contributors.
Semifinalists
RB Jerome Bettis, Roger Craig, Terrell Davis
WR Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed
OL Larry Allen, Will Shields, Joe Jacoby, Jonathan Ogden
DL: Charles Haley, Warren Sapp, Michael Strahan
LB Karl Mecklenburg, Kevin Greene
DB: Steve Atwater, Albert Lewis, John Lynch, Aeneas Williams
K Morten Andersen
Special Teams: Steve Tasker
Coaches Don Coryell, Bill Parcells
Owners Edward DeBartolo Jr., Art Modell
Commissioner Paul Tagliabue
Contributor George Young
These modern-era candidates will be reduced to 15 finalists that will be announced in early January. That list will then be cut to 10 and then to five on the Saturday before the Super Bowl. Those five will be voted on individually for inclusion, as will two senior-era candidates, Curly Culp and Dave Robinson.
Between four and seven enshrinees will be selected for enshrinement. The final voting process takes place prior to the Super Bowl.
The inductees for the class of 2013 will be announced at the Super Bowl. They will be enshrined in August 2013. (We made our predictions here.)
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No surprises there
Looks like Ron Wolf and Clay Matthews have dropped off from last year’s list, as has Donnie Shell who is no longer eligible for the modern era list. The late Steve Sabol didn’t make the cut.
Joe Jacoby and Art Modell have regained their spot after missing out last year. Albert Lewis is a semi finalist for the first time with the six new first-time eligibles – Allen, Ogden, Sapp, Strahan, Andersen and Lynch.
Agreed, not much in the way of surprises, though I’m glad to see that Morten Andersen got this far. Gary Anderson and Nick Lowery never have, and I was wondering if Andersen would fare likewise. It’s also interesting to see Albert Lewis make it to this stage.
Solid list, with 9 players who were not on last year’s semi-final list. Obviously the 5 inductees from last year are missing, along with Donnie Shell who was in his last year of eligibility. They get replaced by 6 newly eligible players including Morten Andersen and John Lynch, who are minor surprises to me, but certainly not totally out of left field.
Previous semi-finalists Joe Jacoby and Art Modell replace first-time semi-finalists from last year, Clay Matthews and Ron Wolf, so not a big surprise.
Albert Lewis however is TOTALLY out of nowhere. He does tend to make the preliminary list every year, but if you asked me to pick who might be next in line to bump up to the semi-finalist list, he probably wouldn’t have made my top 50. That said, as a Chiefs fan I’m happy to see this stud shutdown corner get his due. He was one of the best players on the team when started cheering for them in the early 90’s. He’s one of the few players that both boknows34 and I would be happy to see make this list. :)
Haha, looks like most of what I said was posted while I was composing my post. I agree, I’m glad to finally see a kicker make it to this stage, and it’s a mild surprise that Steve Sabol didn’t get to the next round.
Thanks for posting, guys. I also am a bit surprised Sabol didn’t at least make it this far and that Lewis did. He was a great corner, but he hasn’t been anywhere near this far along as far as I can recall. I think the next cutdown will be the most interesting. I would guess at least four newcomers make the next step: Ogden, Sapp, Allen, Strahan. The three WRs probably do. Bettis, Parcells, Shields, Haley, Greene, Shields would seem to have strong cases. That’s 13. In our February post I picked Lynch as an ultimate inductee, but I think that might have been a stretch, but I will add him to the semifinal list as my 14. And then I’ll take Parcells as no. 15. Thoughts?
Andy, you’ve picked Parcells and Shields twice.
What’s the over/under on the number of ”Ray Guy was snubbed again” comments on profootballhof.com? Anyone? ;)
…. haha, 2nd comment on profootballtalk
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/30/hall-of-fame-semifinalists-announced/
boknows34L oops… good point. I’ll add DeBartolo and Andersen as 14 and 15…
Andy, I think your 15 is about what I’m guessing: Bettis, Brown, Carter, Reed, Haley, Greene, Shields, Parcells, Williams, Ogden, Allen, Sapp, and Strahan for sure. The last two are going to be tough to figure, though rounding things out with defensive players or contributors might make sense given that the 13 above consists of 7 offensive players, 5 defensive players, and one coach.
Craig, Coryell, DeBartolo, Modell, Tagliabue, and Young have all been finalists in the past.
No Darren Woodson, but Steve Tasker, Joe Jacoby, Morten Anderson, Roger Craig, Terrell Davis, and Albert Lewis go through? Anderson is a kicker and Tasker was a special teams guy. Davis had too short an elite career, Craig’s accomplishments aren’t quite there, and…Albert Lewis?!?! Also, Don Coryell was a great coach, but are they really going to induct an NFL coach who didn’t win a single Super Bowl?
Woodson was a lot like Steve Atwater and John Lynch, except better in coverage. He was unfairly passed over for the Pro Bowl a few years (not that 5 is bad), but he does have more first team All Pro selections than the other two guys, more Super Bowl wins, similar sack/int./tackle career stats, and is the Cowboys’ all time tackle leader. He should be placed at least in the same class as the other two guys, and deserved to make it farther than this in the process.
I’m not surprised, given the voters’ dismal track record, but I’m still disappointed.
Eddie D was a finalist in 2012 when Modell didn’t make the semi final list. With Modell’s passing and two owners named this time, as opposed to last year when DeBartolo was the only owner among the semi finalists, it’s quite possible they split the vote and neither one makes the Final 15.
the final 15 list will be interesting
Called the Morten one selection to the semifinalists. Very deep class . Good list overall.
Re Darren Woodson — agreed, I think he’s got an excellent HoF argument. But so do Atwater and Lynch, not to mention Joey Browner and Deron Cherry and Leroy Butler. Beats me how to determine which order to vote them in. It truly, utterly stinks to be a safety at HoF voting time, doesn’t it?
Albert Lewis has a pretty meager honors profile of 2(2AP)/4/none, though he’s one of those guys who reportedly looks really good via film study — in that sense, kind of like Dave Robinson. I remember seeing an article by film study maven Dr. Z that described Lewis as one of the three “great technicians” among CBs with Michael Haynes and Roger Wehrli, and that’s heady company. Plus Lewis was apparently a very effective special teams player with a specialty in blocked punts (10 of them, according to one source).
I agree with Andy and Bach as looking back on my predicted list for the 2013 finalists that I posted after the 2012 elections I would start with the same first 13 names, then any of several for the final two: Allen, Bettis, Brown, Carter, Greene, Haley, Ogden, Parcells, Reed, Sapp, Shield, Strahan, Williams. Sorting out the other contributors may resolve the other two slots.
Frankly with so many returning semifinalists any of them could fall into those two slots but I am pretty certain as to the 13 and that the five finalists will come from that group of 13. Finalists list is usually released by HOF about two weeks before the election meeting (Feb 2)
The results of the modern-era vote to 15 finalists will be announced in early January, 2013. It was Jan 7th for the Class of 2012.
My semifinalist predictions: Jerome Bettis, Roger Craig, Terrell Davis, Tim Brown, Cris Carter,Andre Reed, Todd Christensen, Larry Allen, Jonathan Ogden, Will Shields, Charles Haley, Warren Sapp, Michael Strahan, Kevin Greene, Steve Atwater, John Lynch, Aeneas Williams, Morten Anderson, Steve Tasker, Bill Parcells, Bill Cowher and Steve Sabol.
I named 22 players/contributors who are deserving. They normally cut down the list 25 players for the semifinalists. The following are on the fence and who could get named to the semifinalist: Sterling Sharpe, Joe Jacboy, Bryant Young, Karl Mecklenburg, and Dick Vermeil.
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I got Todd Christensen, Bill Cowher,and Steve Sabol wrong on my picks. Bryant Young, Sterling Sharpe,and Dick Vermeil were picks that I didn’t feel too confident about. I got 22 right out of 27 total picks. Much better than I thought. Jerry Rice called Albert Lewis the best corner he ever played against. 2/4/none is not impressive, but he looks good in film and 42 interceptions is good for a career. He could make it to the 15. We shall see.
Albert Lewis always impressed me. Lewis, Deron Cherry and Kevin Ross formed one of the best secondaries of the 80s in Kansas City. Glad to see a new name break through into the semi final.
im telling you a wide receiver will be inducted in 2013 it will either be carter or reed
I don’t see it happening, but imagine if they inducted two wide receivers. It would be beyond ridiculous if at least one wide receiver isn’t inducted this year.
they have to induct one. most notably carter or reed, brown will still have to wait till those guys get in, plus reed and carter have waited the longest anyway, my choices would be carter or reed, sapp, shields, aeneas williams, robinson, culp, and either parcells or allen
Haley, Parcells, Allen, Carter/Reed and Shields/Ogden are my predicted 5 modern era inductees. They need to start clearing the logjam on the OL just as much as WR.
For 2014, I’d put in Carter/Reed, Ogden/Shields, Strahan/Sapp for 3 of my spots. That would clear up the 3 OL and leave just 1 DL and 2 WR (Brown/Harrison) before things hot up again in 2015 with Jones/Pace/Warner/Seau/Holt/Bruce.
Allen, Haley, Parcells, Reed, Strahan.
OL, Defense, Coach, WR, Defense; seems like a nice balance given the high quality of the final 15 and especially the final 10 (all of whom would deserve election)
My sleeper pick would be Williams (was in final 10 in 2012) to replace Strahan as to some uncertainty as to whether some voters see Strahan as deserving of 1st time election.
One possible surprise would be Shields over Allen as Shields has been moving up ballot in recent years, but my thinking is that majority of voters will see Allen as the best of the OL candidates in 2013.
And Carter could be selected over Reed, but my thinking there is Reed gets in first as he has been a finalist longer, Carter then would easily get in 2014.
Those in the final 15 and then final 10 in 2013 who do not get elected have a very good chance in 2014 which has a much weaker 1st year class than 2013 has.
“Also, Don Coryell was a great coach, but are they really going to induct an NFL coach who didn’t win a single Super Bowl?”
Bud Grant and Marv Levy did not win a single Super Bowl.
“No Darren Woodson, but Steve Tasker, Joe Jacoby, Morten Anderson, Roger Craig, Terrell Davis, and Albert Lewis go through? Anderson is a kicker and Tasker was a special teams guy. Davis had too short an elite career, Craig’s accomplishments aren’t quite there, and…Albert Lewis?!?!”
I do think there is a place for Darren Woodson in Canton but that kicker, Morten Andersen, is the NFL’s all time leading scorer. That special teams guy, Steve Tasker, helped changed the game and made an impact on special teams and was a big reason the Bills went to four Super Bowls. Not to mention Craig, who was a revolutionary running back by not only being a factor with the running game but also the first running back to catch 500 passes in his career.
Grant and Levy each won 4 conference championships. Coryell won 0. Anderson and Tasker aren’t the first great special teams players. If they’re inducted it will be a sea change, and some others will warrant induction too. Craig was a scatback who only had three 1000 yard rushing seasons, never led the league in rushing, and only led the league in yards from scrimmage once. Four Pro Bowls from a system back aren’t good enough in my opinion.
Can we at least agree that Woodson should have gotten the nod over Lewis and/or some of the other guys you didn’t mention?
Adrian Peterson should be first team all pro this year. He has 1.446 rushing yards already in 12 games and also is on pace for a career high in receptions. Although it will be tough to do, he is on pace for for over 1,900 rushing yards. He now has over 8,000 rushing yards, over 1,500 receiving yards, 5.0 yards per rush, 75 career TDs. He only needs to play two seasons with 1,000 rushing yards and he is in for sure. He is not in the same category as TD. AP has more productive seasons and has been named to as many APs.
The pool of quality depth of regular players for the final 15 is too deep for Anderson and Tasker to make it this year. Having them in the final 15 would mean that more deserving first time players and returning finalists from last year would need to be left out – do not see that happening in 2013. The day will come when they or another special team player makes the final 15, just not this year in my view. As posted earlier I think the final 15, especially 12 or 13 of those names is going to be pretty predictable and the final 5 will come from those 12/13.
Rasputin, if we assume all the safeties mentioned above in my post are equally HoF deserving (a big if, of course), one fair way to do this is to go by seniority, or how long they have been retired. In that case, the ordering would be Cherry (1991), Browner (1992), Atwater (1999), Butler (2001), Woodson (2003), and Lynch (2007).
There’s actually precedent for Morten Andersen getting into the HoF since Jan Stenerud is already there — and he is the current all-time leader in points scored and one of the top 5 best PK by FG% adjusted for era (both Lou Groza and Stenerud, two of the other top 5, are in). I think Andersen’s argument is a very strong one.
Steve Tasker is of course a different issue, as there really is no precursor for a non-kicking special teams player in the HoF.
bachslunch, I know Stenerud is in, but he’s the only pure kicker in Canton and his induction was around two decades ago, so inducting a pure kicker at this point would represent a shift in practice. I’m not really opposed to do doing that; in fact I think Ray Guy and some other specialists probably should be in, but I am noting the change it would represent. I’m also not sold yet on the novel concept of a st coverage guy like Tasker getting in.
I’d have no problem with putting the safeties in by seniority, but if Woodson’s going to get a shot as a modern candidate he should be making it past the nomination phase sooner rather than later. Excluding him from the 27 semifinalist group while putting through some of others I mentioned was a slap in the face.
Although I have no doubt that Morten Anderson deserves to be the HOF (as the all time points leader), it is just that I think he will have to wait several years for election as with only one other Kicker in the HOF I can see voters not rushing to pick him over other more deserving and longer waiting previous finalists.
Until HOF voters give some respect to Safeties and start electing the best from the 1970s, 80s and 90s, none of them are going to get in regardless of the order and without that it is going to be long wait for even Lynch. I mean if Altwater and Butler (members of the 1990s decade team) cannot even get consideration for the HOF as finalists what does that say about the chance for Lynch?
The problem that Woodson faces is that in light of the disrespect the HOF voters continue to show Safeties, Altwater, Butler and Lynch are all better Safety candidates and until at least one or two of them get elected Woodson is not even going to make the final 25 list.
Better “candidates” perhaps due to dubious accolades, but Woodson was a greater player. Neither Atwater, Butler, or Lynch could cover as well as Woodson and none of them hit any harder or tackled any surer.
“hit any harder or tackled any surer”
that is purely a subjective opinion, no doubt there are others who would claim the same for Atwater, Butler and/or Lynch.
These elections are based on evidence and facts that support the qualifications of a candidate; love or hate pro bowl, all pro team, and all decade selections, they do serve one important and valued purpose of separating candidates from the same position and era, and on those Atwater, Butler and Lynch surpass Woodson and given that Atwater and Lynch (as a first time candidate) appear on the list of 25 finalists, the voters have made that separation regardless of your opinion that Woodson is a better candidate because you feel he hit harder and was a better tackler, regardless that there is no evidence that suggest he was.
I am a big fan and supporter of Woodson as a HOFer, but even I can see that Lynch, Atwater and perhaps event Butler are more deserving based on their career numbers and facts/evidence readily available to support their cases.
Those accolades you solely rely on were subjective too. Perhaps if more people with discerning eyes who watched all play had spoken up back then as I just did, the Butler/Lynch hype machine wouldn’t have reigned quite as much and Woodson wouldn’t have been robbed of All Decade status and the few more Pro Bowls he deserved (though the real slap in the face was putting in Lott for the 1990s). That said, you focused only on the hitting/tackling portion of my comment, and I don’t think many observers would deny that Woodson was a great tackler and ferocious hitter. For objective stats I suppose one could point to his franchise record number of tackles. The other guys were great hitters and tacklers too. The advantage I gave Woodson was in coverage, and, again, I doubt most credible observers would deny that Woodson was great in coverage, while the other guys were mostly run stoppers. Yeah, I know Butler has more interceptions, but if you go back and watch old games even Madden talks about how Butler becomes a better player closer to the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys’ Roy Williams had a knack for ints, and he was horrible in coverage. INTs aren’t a great measure of coverage ability. QBs rarely threw to Woodson because he almost always had his guy blanketed.
“Grant and Levy each won 4 conference championships. Coryell won 0”
The Pro Football Hall of Fame is also supposed to be for the game changers. Coryell was that with him being credited as a pioneer to the I-Formation.
“Anderson and Tasker aren’t the first great special teams players. If they’re inducted it will be a sea change, and some others will warrant induction too.”
What exactly is wrong with that? If a player warrants induction then they warrant induction. I think Ray Guy and Billy “White Shoes” Johnson should be in and I think some others would be reasonable Hall of Fame candidates too.
“Can we at least agree that Woodson should have gotten the nod over Lewis and/or some of the other guys you didn’t mention?”
That we can agree on. I have no idea why Darren Woodson got overlooked. I am still trying to figure out why the senior committee settled on Curley Culp and Dave Robinson.
I agree that Coryell was a great offensive innovator, but every coach in Canton won at least a conference championship, and most won multiple league titles. I wouldn’t be outraged by his induction but am just pointing out that it would represent another notable shift from current practice. There are so many players, coaches, and contributors who I think have been unfairly passed over that it’s hard for me to get behind borderline candidates before these other guys are inducted.
At least pro bowl, all pro and all decade selections are based on the majority of a number of voters expressing their views and opinions and not those held by only one or a few. But I understand the issues with such selections, when it comes to consideration for the HOF like or dislike those selections are taken into account by the HOF voters. Remember I would support Woodson for the HOF, but your subjective statements about his hitting and coverage abilities can just as easily be made by many others for Atwater, Butler and certainly Lynch. Given that there is little separation between these four players and the terrible disregard of Safeties by the HOF voters at this point I would be pleased to see Atwater or Lynch make the next move into the final 15 over the next few years so the barrier to Safeties can be broken down which is more likely to occur with the players with more awards including all decade team selections. Then we can see the push for Woodson.
The problem with special team players is that there is no agreement that they warrant induction when compared to full time playing regular offensive and defensive players since special team players perhaps are only on the field for a small number of total plays per game and season. Not that I necessarily agree with that view, but it is commonly held by many including a number of HOF voters. I can see there view when deciding which players to advance for consideration from 127 to 25 to 15 to 10 and final elected 5: how can they leave behind a deserving full time player when advancing a special team player.
The Senior Committee consists of 5 members each year who make the selection of the two senior candidates (the 5 rotate among the 9 senior committee members each year), so it only takes one member to sway two other voters to get a senior selected. As a result strong arguments carry they day, those who “speak” the loudest get heard. Both Culp and Robinson were on my list of top 20 seniors to be considered so on that measure they are deserving, my only issue is why them above apparently other more qualified seniors – hence the “loudest argument” issue.
I have no problem with Coryell in the final 27 or even final 15, but his advance is going to be blocked at some point in this process by Parcells who will get much closer to election, even likely elected in 2013. Coaches and contributors deemed as innovators are always going to have a very hard path to the HOF especially against owners and coaches with multiple Superbowls. Especially as they are also completing against players in the current election process.
how about will shields chances in 2013?
I was actually briefly shocked to see Steve Sabol didn’t even make the semifinalists. As a result, I’d be very surprised if Art Modell didn’t make the list of finalists, though it’s going to be extremely difficult for the HOF voters to actually put him in. But the likely list of finalists is going to have so much near-duplication of positions that while I think the voters are going to hold Parcells back for his flirtation with the Saints this offseason, it’s hard to figure out who I’d pick after Strahan, Bettis, a WR, and an OL, as I’d probably have to pick Sapp (which would make two DLs in) or a second OL (my guess would be Allen and Ogden). I don’t think Greene and Williams have strong enough cases to outweigh all-time greats, and Haley and Shields are going to be squeezed out by the newcomers in their position categories; the WR backlog might have some pressure relieved on it this year just because there isn’t going to be anyone to snub them for.
After the list in bachslunch’s second post and Modell, with two contributors already I think the last spot is likely to be a player, which means Craig, Jacoby, Mecklenburg, Lynch, Andersen, or Tasker, as I think for Lewis to make it all the way to the finalist list would be a pretty tall order, and it’d be hard to justify taking Atwater over Lynch with the same number of All-Pros and one more Pro Bowl. If I had to guess, I’d narrow it down to Craig, Andersen, or Tasker, with an outside shot for Mecklenburg or Lynch. I think it’s quite likely that the voters decide to throw a bone to all the people demanding more special-teamers in the Hall and include Andersen or Tasker on the list of finalists, though I’m not sure how often that actually happens.
We’ve already been through this, Paul. I know my comments (except about Woodson’s record tackle total and SB wins) were subjective, just as awards given by the small number of often too disinterested and frankly stupid people who vote on things like Pro Bowls and All Decade teams were subjective. That’s why I made them, because I don’t think the truth shows up when people take a surface glance at those accolades, and it’s worth getting a contrary opinion on record whenever the opportunity presents itself. For what it’s worth, I also remember John Madden routinely asking why Woodson wasn’t in the Pro Bowl in the late 1990s/early 2000s, and saying that no safety in the league was better than he was, so it’s not like I’m a minority of one.
I wouldn’t mind other safeties of the era being inducted first, but it’s concerning that Woodson wasn’t even put through to the semifinal round.
Remember when most thought Calvin Johnson would suffer the infamous Madden Curse? Well, he has been cursed, with being on pace for the most receiving yards in a single season. At 27 years old, he has exactly 7,300 receiving yards for a career. He is by and large, the best wide receiver in the game past two seasons. He is still very young, but he is well on his way to the hall with another 2-3 seasons of 1,200+ receiving yards.
I can agree with on the issue of how and who is selecting the pro bowl teams, but the all pro and all decade teams are much more selective and limited as to number of voters so yes I do believe that they carry weight when it comes to evaluating the careers of players and they do make a big difference with the HOF voters. As to having Woodson as a semifinalist my thought is that with only 25 slots and already DBs on the list, the HOF voters are more inclined to select other more qualified players and a mix of all positions, offense and defense.
Morgan: At least one coach/contributor is going to make the list of 12 finalists, Parcells and perhaps even Modell, that is much more likely then a special team player doing so. I do not believe there will be much interest in electing Sapp this year as I do believe all the five remaining from the final 10 in 2012 will first get serious consideration plus Allen, Ogden, and Strahan. Williams made the final 10 in 2012, Bettis did not, so I do not believe Bettis will jump over Williams for election in 2013. Haley has been on the ballot for a few years now and slowly moving up the list, although it is possible Strahan could jump him and get elected with the defense push I could see both get elected. That would leave room for one OL (Allen?) and one WR (Reed?).
Chris: With two as qualified OL now on the ballot (Allen and Ogden) we have a log jam that voters will need to sort out, I am thinking leaving Shields on the sideline for another year. But it all depends whether voters feel he has spent time already as a finalist and for whatever reason would not elect Allen or Ogden in the first year on the ballot. In 2007 Bruce Matthews was elected in his first year and my thinking is that voters will see Allen in the same light and elect him also in his first year on the ballot. All three of this deserve the HOF, challenge is getting the order set.
“As to having Woodson as a semifinalist my thought is that with only 25 slots and already DBs on the list, the HOF voters are more inclined to select other more qualified players and a mix of all positions, offense and defense.”
27 slots, apparently, and I’m not sure how a DB like Albert Lewis is supposedly more qualified than Woodson from any vantage point. And, despite everything we’ve said, Woodson does have one more Pro Bowl than Leroy Butler and more first team All Pro selections than Atwater, Lynch, and Carnell Lake, so it’s not like he’s deficient in accolades. I just think they understate his greatness. The 1990s All Decade team chose four safeties, and picking Carnell Lake (5 Pro Bowsl, 1 first team All Pro) and Ronnie Lott (2 Pro Bowls in the 1990s, career ended after 1994) over Woodson was an unjust snub.
For the record, I’m more likely to pick two OL than two DL, if only for the weak reason that Allen and Ogden made NFL Network’s top 100 list and Sapp didn’t.
“Chris: With two as qualified OL now on the ballot (Allen and Ogden) we have a log jam that voters will need to sort out, I am thinking leaving Shields on the sideline for another year. But it all depends whether voters feel he has spent time already as a finalist and for whatever reason would not elect Allen or Ogden in the first year on the ballot. In 2007 Bruce Matthews was elected in his first year and my thinking is that voters will see Allen in the same light and elect him also in his first year on the ballot. All three of this deserve the HOF, challenge is getting the order set.”
I felt that 2012 was the year of Shields but they put Roaf in first. Who knows, maybe Allen and Ogden will have to wait as Shields gets elected in 2013.
What are the chances on all 27 making the final 15?
If by all 27, you mean out of the 27 people making it, what are their indivdual chances? Let’s look.
WR Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed
OL Larry Allen, Will Shields, Joe Jacoby, Jonathan Ogden
DL: Charles Haley, Warren Sapp, Michael Strahan
LB Karl Mecklenburg, Kevin Greene
DB: Steve Atwater, Albert Lewis, John Lynch, Aeneas Williams
K Morten Andersen
Special Teams: Steve Tasker
Coaches Don Coryell, Bill Parcells
Owners Edward DeBartolo Jr., Art Modell
Commissioner Paul Tagliabue
Contributor George Young
I would say most certainly a wide receiver, probably Carter or Reed, will make the top 15.
I don’t se Joe Jacoby making it that far given how stacked things are. I could be wrong but the other three offensive linemen have excellent chances.
I can see a defensive lineman, either Sapp or Strahan, getting in first ballot. There is sentiment for Charles Haley. I say Strahan makes the top 15 and maybe one other does with him.
Linebackers I don’t know about. Maybe Kevin Greene, even though Karl Mecklenburg has a better profile, but he probably doesn’t get the same attention Greene does for some reason.
Atwater, Lynch and Williams all have a chance. I would say there is very little chance Albert Lewis makes it.
I would love to see Morten Andersen make it, but seeing as how rare it is for special teamers to make it so far, I wouldn’t think he’ll make it. I would say the same for Steve Tasker.
I can see Parcells making it. I can’t say the same for Coryell.
Modell might have more sentiment since his recent passing but I don’t know if either owner will make it.
Nor can I say the same about Tagliabue or Young. They will probably get elected when the logjam of other players clears up a little bit.
By the way, I wonder what you all would make of this piece. I can’t help but think that if the author were a Hall of Fame voter, he’d be contributing to the same problem he claims to identify. The Hall of Fame selection process may be flawed and has a number of head-scratching picks from year to year, but it hardly resembles what he caricatures it as. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40508110/
Brad as I posted earlier I think you start with the 2012 finalists not elected and still eligible (10) plus add the four 1st time candidates, that would get you a list of:
Parcells, Carter, Haley, Reed, Williams, Bettis, Brown, DeBartolo Jr., Greene, Shields, Allen, Ogden, Strahan, Sapp
Now the only question mark I would place on that list would be DeBartolo who could be replaced with another of the coaches/contributors (Modell?)
That would leave you with one opening (assuming no ties), which could come from any number of other semi-finalists, perhaps Mecklenburg, Lynch or another contributor?
These “last” two slots on the finalists 15 really makes no difference, because in my view the final five will come from the pool of Parcells, Carter, Haley, Reed, Williams, Shields, Allen, Ogden, Strahan
Also the 2013 election will set up the 2014 election with those from the final 10 in 2013 not elected representing the likely 2014 elected class as 2014 really only has one strong candidate for 1st time election (Brooks).
Yes I agree there is a possibility that Shields will get in over Allen and Ogden as all three are deserving and have similar qualifications with Allen perhaps only a little ahead of the other two but it may not be enough to get him elected, a split vote among the OL is also another possibility which would create a logjam mess like what has happened in recent years. But with a wave of OL coming on the ballot in the next few years, HOF voters need to start getting at least one OL (and one WR!) elected this year and in 2014 and 2015, especially in the absence of many higher profile QBs and RBs.
My prediction for Final 15
RB: Jerome Bettis, Roger Craig
WR: Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Cris Carter
OL: Larry Allen, Jonathan Ogden, Will Shields
LB: Kevin Greene,Charles Haley(also DL)
DL: Warren Sapp, Michael Strahan
DB: Aeneas Williams, John Lynch
Coach: Bill Parcells
I agree with all of the comments so far suggesting that there will not be a ton of surprises on the finalists list. I would say pretty confidently that Brown, Carter, Reed, Bettis, Allen, Ogden, Shields, Strahan, Sapp, Haley, Greene, Williams and Parcells will make up 13 of the finalists, and that 10 of these (my guess is Carter, Reed, Bettis, Allen, Shields, Strahan, Haley, Greene, Williams and Parcells) move onto the final 10.
The last 2 spots could go a number of ways, but I can’t see Lewis, Jacoby, Davis, Young, Mecklenburg, Tasker, Lynch or Andersen moving on. Out of the other 6, I think that one contributor/coach and one player will move on. I don’t know if Modell’s death will automatically punch his ticket to the next stage, because it did not benefit Coryell a couple of years ago. I would say it’s a total toss up since all 4 have been finalists before, but despite what I said in the last sentence, I will still pick Modell to move on.
Out of Craig and Atwater, I’d be fine with either moving on. Craig only has 5 more years of modern-era eligibility, so if the voters are serious about him making it in before his eligibility expires, he needs to get back to at least the final 15 soon. Along with other safeties Lynch, Woodson, Browner and Cherry, I think that Steve Atwater belongs in the HOF. It took him awhile to get past the 1st stage of voting, but with a lack of great DB candidates coming up and only Aeneas Williams clearly ahead of him in the DB pecking order, I think that he could get in within 3-5 years. Lynch was a great safety, but I think Atwater having similar stats/accolades, 1 more SB ring and 8 years longer of a wait will keep him ahead induction-wise. Hopefully they both get in fairly quickly so that Darren Woodson can be considered soon. I think it will be too late for Cherry or Browner to make a run before they head over to the Senior Committee. My guess is that Atwater moves on out of him and Craig.
This will possibly change once the finalists are announced, but my guesses for the induction class will be Carter, Allen, Strahan, Greene and Parcells.
BSLO Given that Haley (and not Greene) made the move into the final 10 in 2012 what is your thinking that Greene will now suddenly jump from final 15 to election, and over Haley, why would voters change that order this year?
Paul, in recent years, there is always at least one inductee that jumps the order and gets inducted every year after being only a semifinalist or top 15 finalist the year before. In recent years, both Rickey Jackson and Chris Doleman have jumped Charles Haley in the induction order for pass rushers. While Haley did make it to the final 10 last year, his rise to this point has been very slow, and there clearly are enough voters that believe his 5 Super Bowls do not make up for the shortcomings in his resume.
Out of the guys in that 11-15 range from last year, I don’t think that Will Shields will get in over Larry Allen, I don’t think that Jerome Bettis will get in until at least one WR gets inducted, Tim Brown has been clearly identified as being behind Reed and Carter for 3 straight elections, and DeBartolo is not a lock to be a finalist again. That leaves Greene, and given that the only thing putting him behind Haley is Super Bowl wins, I think he has the best shot at making that surprise jump this year.
Morgan, I saw this article — it’s by someone affiliated with Football Outsiders. It’s not the worst I’ve seen, but there are some issues:
-he overrates Bettis, though I think he’s getting in anyway.
-he underrates both safeties — which makes him like most HoF voters, who traditionally don’t seem to like players at this position much. The biggest problem is that there’s a logjam of worthy safeties from this period, which includes not just John Lynch and Steve Atwater, but also Leroy Butler and Joey Browner and Deron Cherry and Darren Woodson. It’s really hard to differentiate between them, which doesn’t mean none of them belong in.
-the grumbling against Warren Sapp for ancillary personality and off-field issues. which make no sense. He may indeed be delayed a few years like Cortez Kennedy was (both had reputations of brilliant play marred by bad stretches), but he’s getting in and I think deservedly so.
-agreed that Roger Craig has a pretty weak HoF case, but comparing him to Herschel Walker is actually more instructive — it’s pretty much impossible to back the former for the HoF and not the latter, given that they played at about the same time and put up very similar career all purpose yards numbers. And nobody’s giving Walker a second thought.
-Albert Lewis is reportedly one of those players who looks a lot better via film study than his meager postseason honors suggest — Dr. Z, for one, puts him in elite coverage CB company with HoF guys like Roger Wehril and Michael Haynes. And Lewis was also a fine special teams player with a specialty in blocked punts (10, according to one source). I’m not sure if he belongs in or not, but his argument is better than one might guess.
That said, I do believe that Haley gets inducted next year. If Strahan and Greene get inducted, he becomes easily the best pass rusher left, and unless he gets blocked by Brooks since both played OLB (although in completely different schemes, and Haley only played LB for part of his career), I don’t see why he wouldn’t make it next year.
Oh yeah, in my first post today, I neglected to mention LeRoy Butler as a worthy HOF candidate. I would personally put him behind Woodson, but I don’t know that the voters would. Either way, I think he is someone who might have to wait until the senior committee to get considered unless Atwater and Lynch get inducted relatively quickly, and the Hall views him as a better candidate than Darren Sharper.
I’m not the biggest proponent of Charles Haley, but I think that the committee keeping him out despite playing on five Super Bowl winners while also voting no on others because they don’t have a ring does seem contradictory to me.
i just dont see haley getting in this year maybe next year my thing is they will induct an OL, WR, DL, maybe parcells, the two seniors, and maybe another lineman or a DB like aeneas williams
My final five:
1. Cris Carter
2. Larry Allen
3. Bill Parcells
4. Michael Strahan
5. Jerome Bettis
My thought was that the shorter career, and fewer career sacks, along with lower number of pro bowl and all pro team has hurt Haley against the other DE/LB pass rushers of recent years. But both Haley and Greene were in the final 15 yet it was Haley that made the jump into the final 10 and it seemed to me that post election there seemed to be surprise for his non-election and continued support for his election, certainly less then any I have heard for Greene. Adding both Strahan and Sapp to the mix in 2013 does muddle the pass rushing pool of candidates which could end up hurting both Haley and Greene, but I do not envision how that would result in Greene jumping over Haley into the final 10. 2013 will be the fourth year Haley is a finalist and second year for Greene so I see the momentum on the side of Haley when comparing them. But you are right one of the surprises in these elections can be the sudden advancement of some players. Personally although Greene has the better numbers in some cases, Haley in my view was more major impact player on 5 SB teams and thus more deserving of election first.
Also I am not a strong advocate for Bettis this year as I see the returning 2012 finalists and 2013 1st year players as all more deserving. Bettis feels more like a 2014 or 2015 selection to me, before E James appears on the ballot.
I actually found that article to one of the better discussions of the HOF elections by a non HOF voter that I have seen in recent years (and at least he does not harp on the old debate of why if someone is a HOFer they are not elected their first year). However, I would say the writer does delve somewhat into two often repeated issues regarding the voting process. First, that the main problem is not with the process but with the actual 40+ voters themselves. As if simply changing out the members, adding non-writers, or increasing the number of voters would solve the bias, voting blocks and other issues.
And that the process is wrong and unfair, when in fact in my view if you compare it to other major professional HOF voting processes, the pro football HOF selection is a much better process. Ultimately we can debate as to who gets elected and when, but if you look at the elections over a period of years, yes some players should have been elected already or before others, but given only 5 modern slots it will take time to get all the deserving players elected and for me I see very few cases where deserving players are missed or undeserving are elected (and as I have posted many times this call for injustice when a player is not elected in his first year is just plain stupid). Sure we all have our ranked order but does it really matter if someone in the final 15 is elected this year, next or five years from now as long as they get elected?
Personally I have a much more stronger opinion on the issue of combining seniors and coaches/contributors with modern candidates, and how a committee of only 5 people each year can select the 2 senior candidates.
Kevin Mawae is going to be eligible for the 2015 Hall of Fame. How long will he wait? Will he have a similar path like Dermontti Dawson?
I think it says a lot that it took Dawson six years to get in. I think Mawae may wait longer than Dawson did. I honestly think it may take him one of the last few ballots on the modern era or he may have to go to the senior pool. I would not be surprised if that happened, although I do think he deserves it.
After Dermontti Dawson, Kevin Mawae is easily the best center as far as AP/PB/decade goes in the past 12+ seasons. Olin Kreutz has a case: 2/6/00s. But he is not close to Kevin Mawae: 6/8/00s. Durability: Olin has played ten seasons of 16 games, one year of 15, one of 9,one of 7,and one of 4. Kevin: 12 years of 16, one of 15, two of 14,and one of 6.
how about art modells chances for the 15 finalist list as a contributor?
Re Art Modell, I think the franchise move will be too much for him to overcome.
Re Kevin Mawae, he’s clearly the best center of his time and will probably be the only such player elected from the 00s. But I think Corey is right that he’ll wait a while — I’d guess at least 6 years like Dawson, and likely longer, maybe 8-10 years. I’d be surprised if he drops into the Senior pool, though — he’d have to whiff 20 times to fall that far.
I’m not denying he’ll have to wait a while. I just don’t see him having to wait until the Senior Nominee.
Kevin Mawae should get in 4-6 years after he is eligible, but I think Kreutz was just as good without the fanfare because he never went thru the FA process that Mawae did. Everyone knew Mawae because he was no longer annonymous. Every team and sports talk show was evaluating him. Such is the life of an NFL O- Lineman. Some day C’s like Matt Birk and Jeff Saturday will go thru the same thing. Its funny how players like that can be captains of their tean for 10 years but malcontents like Richard Dent, Charles Haley get more praise.
Don’t get me wrong, Dent and someday Haley deserve to be in the HOF, but the commitees should take a longer look at under-appeciated positions on the field like C and Safety.
I think the big issue with 00s centers is that there’s Kevin Mawae and then everyone else in a clump down below (Kreutz, Birk, Saturday, Nalen). Mawae’s postseason honors clearly stand out from the rest.
Is Kevin Mawae that much above Olin Kreutz? I would put Mawae in before I would put Kreutz in but 3/8 for Mawae vs. 2/6 for Kreutz with both being named to the 2000s All Decade team, that isn’t the most one sided comparison between two candidates.
As far as postseason honors go, Kreutz played in a Super Bowl and Mawae did not.
I completely agree with what’s been said so far. I think Mawae is looking at a 6-10 year wait, mostly due to the number of excellent O-Linemen becoming eligible at the same time. One of Shields, Allen and Ogden will get in this year, and one will likely get in next year, but the logjam will start all over again in 2015 when Jones, Pace and Mawae are eligible, followed by Faneca.
The good thing for Mawae’s chances is that after Faneca, the coast looks like it will be clear for awhile, with only Steve Hutchinson having slam-dunk credentials among active players (Joe Thomas is getting there, but he’s likely got several more years of playing). He’s definitely got the best post-season credentials of any center from his era (I agree that there is a jumble just behind him with the 4 guys bachslunch mentioned), so I don’t see it as a matter of if he gets in, but when. I don’t see why he’d have to wait for the senior’s pool. The Hall loves putting in linemen, and he’ll likely be the best one left waiting within 6-8 years.
Kevin Mawae’s honors profile is 7(3AP)/8/00s. Named 1st team all pro as follows:
-1999, AP and Sporting News (SN)
-2000, Pro Football Writers (PFW)
-2001, AP and PFW and SN
-2002, PFW and SN
-2004, PFW
-2007, PFW
-2008, AP and PFW
Olin Kreutz’s is 2(1AP)/6/00s. Named 1st team all pro as follows:
-2005, PFW and SN
-2006, AP and PFW and SN
Wes Welker needs 8 receptions to become the first player with 100 receptions in five different seasons. I’m not in favor of him for the hall(not yet), but if he gets 900-1000 receptions with something like 2-3/5-6/none, he has a case; but he averages 11.2 yards per reception and he only has 36 receiving TDs. Thoughts?
In this era it is going to be hard for any WR without 900+ receptions to be considered for the HOF, look at the mess with Reed, Carter and Brown. All depends how he finishes his career and compares to other 2000s/2010s WRs for career numbers and awards.
Welker might have a shot, but with the way voters are, they may keep him out for the sole fact that he dropped that catch in Super Bowl 46.
AP now has 1,600 rushing yards on the year. He now averages over 97 rushing yards per game for a career. He is a lock for Canton next year with a season of 1,300 rushing yards(next year).
Adrian Peterson is having a phenomenal year.
He’s on pace for close to 2,000 rushing yards. He has already had a season of 1,700. Not bad.
I think Peterson will be enshrined one day. It’s harder for a player to separate themselves these days since offensive numbers have increased but in my opinion, Peterson has been the best running back since coming into the league and the running back position is one where there are so many players who have one good year, maybe two tops and then they fade out. Peterson has been consisently at the top since his rookie season in 2007 and in my opinion, that is what will earn him a bust one day.
I agree that Peterson is well on his way to the HOF with his great comeback season this year. To lock in his election he will need a few more very good years and push his yards above 10,000 and TDs over 100.
Peterson is already 6th all-time for most rushing yds in a player’s first 6 NFL seasons. He’ll move past Walter Payton’s mark (1975-80) into 5th with another 35 yds. Dickerson, Tomlinson, Emmitt and Barry are the Top 4.
Only Dickerson, Campbell, Brown and Sanders had more yds per game (min 75 games) than Peterson in their first 6 seasons. Add a career 5.00 ypc and he’s well on his way to Canton as one of the all-time greats. A 2k season would be the icing on the cake.
2,000 yard season would be the cake;anything before and after is the icing.
I thought you would have more of a problem with the Sports on Earth article because he claims “the committee loves Super Bowls, hates statistics with a passion that burns like the core of a dying sun, goes on “runs” of positions or teams, and has an unhealthy obsession with the “signature moment,” a single highlight that defines the player, like Lynn Swann’s Super Bowl catch or Marcus Allen’s change-of-direction Super Bowl run.”
I think most people here are under the impression Super Bowls only matter for QBs and select individual players at other positions, and you’d be hard-pressed to find more than two or three players that get put in because of some “signature moment”; besides Allen’s 2/6/none resume being plenty good enough to get into the Hall, and being on NFL Network’s 100 Greatest Players (take what you will from that, but it’s something Swann and Paul Hornung can’t say), he was just the subject of an episode of “A Football Life” that was promoted by calling him something like one of the greatest to ever play the game. That doesn’t sound like someone who only got in for a single “signature moment”. And if “hates statistics with a passion” is code for “why does my favorite 90s/00s receiver have to wait behind a 60s/70s receiver with fewer receiving yards and TDs?”, then there’s a very good reason for it.
And when he gets to the WR logjam, there’s evidence that that is precisely the case: “Many of them believe that a great receiver must be [Paul] Warfield-like: catch one 50-yard bomb per game (in slow motion on 35-millimeter film), win Super Bowls, and possess some kind of magical quality. Show the Hall of Fame committee a player who caught 100-passes per year or was part of an offensive sea-change, and they react like you are a used car salesman offering 0% financing: they will automatically assume that the stats are some kind of shell game.” Again, he’s judging the Hall’s entire thought process on the Swann selection, and downplaying the changes in the offensive game over the decades, writing off the Hall’s correcting for them as “automatically assuming the stats are some kind of shell game.” Hmm, I wonder if the fact he happens to work for a statistics website has anything to do with that?
He thinks Tim Brown has a better shot than Andre Reed “because he has some Warfield qualities: he was a deep threat, with college superstardom to add to his allure”; his lack of grasp of the Hall’s actual thought process is evidenced by the fact Reed has made the final ten multiple times and Carter joined him in 2012, while Brown never has. He also claims “both were better receivers than Michael Irvin, who skated into Canton on the Warfield “less is more, plus rings” path.” Brown: 2(0AP)/9/90s. Reed: 0/7/none. Warfield: 6(2AP)/8/70s. Irvin: 1AP/5/90s. Seems to me Warfield is the most qualified of the bunch and you could make a strong case Irvin is more qualified than Reed. If the Hall has the biases he claims, he should be blaming the All-Pro and Pro Bowl voters.
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned how the stories of Larry Allen’s prodigious weight-room prowess will somehow “help personify Allen, which counts for a lot when the committee tries to choose among linemen.” Conversely, I think he actually potentially makes a good point about the postseason honors of Atwater and Lynch being inflated… if only he used the same argument with offensive linemen (namely when he mentions Will Shields’ 12 pro bowls uncritically), or paid any attention to postseason honors whatsoever when it comes to skill positions.
“I thought you would have more of a problem with the Sports on Earth article because he claims “the committee loves Super Bowls, hates statistics with a passion that burns like the core of a dying sun, goes on “runs” of positions or teams, and has an unhealthy obsession with the “signature moment,” a single highlight that defines the player, like Lynn Swann’s Super Bowl catch or Marcus Allen’s change-of-direction Super Bowl run.”
I think there is some truth to this statement, but with a Committee of 44 people there bound to be a wide range of views and means of evaluating candidates for the HOF, some of whom probably follow such thinking. I guess I found the article less of a problem then many other such articles that clearly do not understand the selection and voting process and feel that since certain players are not elected in their first year or take several years that the problem lies with the process or all the 44 voters. Some of his views are off the mark but at least he presents a case rather then screaming that the HOF and voters are morons since Ray Guy has not been selected.
I do agree that stories, memories, and “myths” that help personify candidates often do come into play (as does the history the candidate had with the media) when voters evaluate candidates, especially those close cases or where stats are lacking (OL for example).
What kind of a relationship did Mick Tingelhoff have with the media? I cannot even begin to understand why he isn’t in. He has a 5/6 profile and was one of the best centers ever. If they could elect Fran Tarkenton, Alan Page, Carl Eller, Paul Krause and Bud Grant from those Viking teams, it’s about time they give Mr. Tingelhoff his overdue, well-deserved bust in Canton.
One reason I have read about Tingelhoff was the poor SB games by the Vikings and that their OL was outplayed by Steelers and other DL. The issue was there long enough to push him into the deep seniors candidate pool. But I agree, and so do some current HOF voters, that he deserves election, he will first need to rise to top of the seniors list which has several even more deserving players.
For the record, I think Irvin was a better WR than Brown and Reed. That’s mostly due to the eye ball test (Irvin just looked like was better), but you can also make a statistical argument for Irvin.
Career Yards/Game
Michael Irvin – 74.9
Tim Brown – 58.6
Andre Reed – 56.4
Michael Irvin was the only one of the bunch to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Reed only had four 1000 yard season scattered throughout his career, only exceeded 1300 yards twice, and never reached 1400 yards. Irvin posted seven 1000 yard seasons in a shorter career, and was on pace to blow that mark away again in 1996 if not for missing games due to suspension. Brown had nine 1000 yard seasons in, again, a longer career that spilled into the pass inflated 2000s, but his best mark was 1408 yards, and he never approached Irvin’s top two seasons of 1523 and 1603 yards. Brown led the league in receptions once, while Reed never led in any statistical category. Irvin led the NFL two years in yards/game, not counting the 1995 season in which he posted 100.2 y/g. The other guys never reached 90 y/g for a season. Oh, and Super Bowl wins are a stat too. Irvin played a huge role in winning three of them.
For the record, you cannot blame Andre Reed for the Bills losing four straight Super Bowls. He had 27 catches in those four games and that is second only to Jerry Rice for most receptions in Super Bowl history.
Irvin also retired among the top leaders in WR playoff numbers (rec, yards, TDs) including Superbowls, performance in the playoffs does matter to the HOF voters as much as regular season career numbers and awards. Same reason why Reed is going to get in the HOF some year soon.
andre reed will definitely get a call come super bowl week in february
While I do think Andre Reed should be in, to me there is no eligible candidate for the Hall of Fame, modern era or senior, who is more deserving than Cris Carter is.
Reed was a seven time Pro Bowler but never made a first team all pro.
Carter has a profile of 2/8 and was selected to the first team 1990s All Decade team. Not just part of it, but first team, along with Rice. Irvin was second team all 1990s.
Cris Carter should have been in years ago and hopefully he gets in soon.
I do think Carter will likely get in soon, but don’t get me started on the 1990s All Decade team. Travesty.
yeah that is a little overrated the all-decade teams
AP could get 12,000-13,000 rushing yards for a career if he plays until he is 31-32. First ballot material for sure.
dont forget about steven jackson also
If they both can stay healthy and productive past the age of 30, which traditionally has been a barrier and start of decline for so many RBs. With the size and speed of so many defense players in this era RBs are taking a pounding.
13 NFL players had 10,000 rushing yards for a career prior to the start of the 2001 season. Steven Jackson was number 27th to do so this past weekend. It’s clearly not what it once was; he needs more yards. Adrian Peterson is 1,436 yards away from 10k. If he gets 200 rushing yards in the next two games combined, he would only need 1,236 rushing yards in 2013. Steven Jackson is a 0/3/none. AP is 3/4/none, but his 2010’s all decade team campaign is clearly one of the best at RB/. Also, AP has 78 total TD’s in 87 games compared to Steven’s 63 total TDs in 129. Steven will have a hard time because of AP and Chris Johnson, who is making a serious case for Hall. Chris Johnson is one of five players to start a career with 5 seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards. He has the most yards from scrimmage in a single season with 2,509. He has a 2,006 rushing yard season same year. Only NFL player in history to have 2,000 rushing and 500 receiving in same year. He is the only player in NFL history with a touchdown of 50 yards, 60 yards, and 80 yards in a single game. Best one: He is the only player in NFL history with 6 TD runs of over 80 yards. No other player has more than 3.
who is likely to get into canton in 2013 andre reed or cris carter?
Impossible to know as both were 2012 finalists but clearly the WR vote is split among the HOF voters, if I had to guess Reed only because he has been a finalist longer. It will come down to which presenter does the more convincing case for election.
got that right so mark gaughan from the buffalo news, get andre reed into the hall of fame
Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson, part of the 2007 draft class, are both setting themselves up for the Hall of Fame.
Joe Thomas, Patrick Willis and Darelle Revis, despite injury, all have excellent chances to make it as well.
and RGIII is a sure bet HOFer
Cam Newton is definitely on pace with RGIII. They need to played another 4-5 years and it is telling. Look at Randall Cunningham, who I believe will ultimately get in via modern or Senior Nominee. He had seasons of greatness,but got hurt a great multitude of times.
@Brad, I did a post awhile back analyzing Calvin Johnson against Jerry Rice and Randy Moss at similar stages in their careers. I agree that Johnson is on the right track toward a HOF induction.
https://www.zoneblitz.com/2012/11/28/megatron-trending-current-wr-greats/
@Paul, @Brad, I hesitate to start predicting Hall of Fame status for first and second year players. It’s way too often that guys like Newton and Griffin as well as other stars – Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, etc. and guys from other positions start out great, but don’t sustain it long enough to warrant consideration. That said, after slumping early this season, Cam Newton has rebounded mightily the second half of the season. And I absolutely love watching the rookie trio of Wilson, Griffin and Luck this season. There are some really good, young quarterbacks in the league right now who are going to be fun to watch for a long time.
The only way Cunningham gets in the HOF is if he buys a ticket, but seriously the Hall needs to change the rules right now and elect RGIII now as he is among the greatest QBs to ever play the game as no other QB has had this ability to throw and run before!!