We’re in the heart of fantasy football draft week and the countdown to kickoff has begun. My brother and I kicked off our fantasy football draft season last weekend with a 12-team auction and I have my first solo draft of the season tomorrow night.

So I was doing some studying this morning and in doing so, I came across a few postings at Fantasy Football Sportal.com that inspired me to throw together a couple of my own lists. In this one, I look at a handful-or-so of guys I think are being drafted too high. Do you agree? Or am I out of my mind? Let me know your thoughts.

Matt Forte (ADP: 1.10 in 12-team leagues)

Forte takes a lot of heat here at Zoneblitz.com. It’s not that I don’t like him as a player. He’s a fine running back in most situations and he’s very good out of the backfield as a receiver, so he’s built for football in the 2010 era. The problem is his ineptitude in short yardage and at the goal line. In fairness, he has not been helped by a pathetic offensive line. But each of the past two seasons, the Bears have brought in past-their-prime backs to challenge Forte and alleviate his short yardage carries. Chester Taylor and Marion Barber III have largely been ineffective in doing so. That won’t be the case this season, as the goal line carries are one of Michael Bush’s strengths. Bush will take a lot of scoring chances away from Forte and will dent his carries between the 20s as well meaning Forte will produce at far less than first-round value.

Darren McFadden (ADP: 1.9 in 10- and 12-team leagues)

McFadden is going at an average of ninth in drafts thus far and I have seen him as high as fourth on cheat sheets produced by so-called fantasy experts. Really? Have we forgotten the past so quickly? I love McFadden’s talent, but his injury history far outpaces everything he has ever done on an NFL playing field. He’s never played more than 13 games in a season. He’s missed 19 of the 64 games in which he’s been eligible to play through four seasons. He’s coming off a foot injury that seemed to linger and linger and linger. And people are still taking this guy in the middle-to-late first round? No thank you. McFadden says he is focused on staying healthy for the entire season. I’ll believe it when I see it.

DeMarco Murray (ADP: 2.05 in 12-team leagues)

I am a fan of Murray. I had him during the 253 yard outburst against St. Louis last season. I think he has a chance to be a really good player in this league, but I’m not taking him early in the second round. We’re basing this draft spot on what we saw after seven starts and 13 total games. Murray had some great moments, but his stats were uneven. The Cowboys’ offensive line is suspect at best. And let’s not forget that Murray’s best games were with Tony Fiammetta, who signed in the offseason with New England. Murray may end up with the same type of relationship with Lawrence Vickers. But you also can’t ignore Murray’s injury history. He came to the league with those concerns and after seven starts in 2011, he promptly broke his ankle. As I said, I love his talent, but he has yet to earn this lofty draft spot.

Matthew Stafford (ADP: 2.01 in 10-team leagues)

I love Matthew Stafford. I would be more than happy to draft him onto my fantasy team, but the key to winning leagues is getting the right guys at the right spots. I think Detroit has a chance to be special on offense this season. But with the first pick in the second round I’m not going to take a chance on Stafford. Yes, he had a quiet 5,000-plus yard season last year. He’s surrounded by Calvin Johnson and some other fantastic weapons. Here again my biggest problem is injury history. I want my first couple picks to at least appear as though they can consistently make it through a season. Stafford has missed 19 of 48 games and he seems to have a knack for getting himself dinged (see film of last week’s preseason game). Drop him a round from this spot and I might bite, but I could easily find a list of 11 to 18 players I would draft before I’d roll the dice on Stafford.

Marshawn Lynch (ADP: 3.02 in 12-team leagues)

Marshawn Lynch isn’t so much an injury concern to me. He’s more the classic case of the guy who exploded while chasing the big payday. Now that he’s gotten paid will he still have the fire? He got arrested for DUI during the offseason, which was a bad start. He’s managed to stay pretty quiet since then. I may be completely misreading this one, but my inclination is to let someone else take the risk on this guy.

Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: 4.1 in 10-team leagues)

In running back years, Bradshaw is getting up there. He’s also had ongoing foot issues the last couple years. The biggest risk in my eyes is the reports coming out of New York on rookie first-rounder David Wilson, who sounds like he could be the next Gale Sayers. I’ll temper my expectations for Wilson, but I do believe the youngster is going to play and I’d rather get my hands on him than roll the dice on Bradshaw.

Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 2.04 in 10-team leagues)

I won’t leave wide receivers off this list altogether, though I tend to think they carry less risk than guys at other positions. Don’t get me wrong on Fitz. He probably is the second-best wide receiver in the NFL right now, if not the best. His quarterback situation, however, is one of the worst and it has really kept his touchdown numbers in check the last two seasons (eight and six, after having put up 13, 12 and 10 the previous three). I love this guy but until he’s catching passes from someone besides Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, I’ll let someone else take him as the second wide receiver off the board and I’ll instead grab Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall (who I am aware comes with his own risks), Roddy White, Jordy Nelson or, frankly, either of the top two tight ends.

ADP information provided by myfantasyleague.com.