This afternoon apparently marks the announcement of the semifinalists for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012, and so far we’ve managed to not officially gone on record with our picks for this year.  So here goes…

In 2011, we hit on 3 out of 5 picks (Sanders, Sharpe & Dent) while missing the obvious Marshall Faulk and the longshot Ed Sabol, while picking Dermontti Dawson and Tim Brown. So how will we do this year? Keep reading to find out…

The class of 2012 may calm the waters considerably for some long-time candidates, like Cris Carter, who early on appeared to be a shoe-in for eventual enshrinement, but who has sat and watched for four years in a row now.

But for those who don’t make the Class of 2012, the wait could lengthen considerably.

The 2013 class of first-time eligibles includes Jonathan Ogden, Michael Strahan, Larry Allen and Warren Sapp. Sapp always seemed slightly overrated, in my opinion, but he’s likely going to get in sooner rather than later. The other three unquestionably have a legit chance to get in on the first ballot – and they won’t wait long if they don’t get in on try number one.

So who gets the nod next year? Well, let’s start with the semifinalist list from 2011 (minus Richard Dent, Marshall Faulk, Ed Sabol, Deion Sanders and Shannon Sharpe, who were elected, and Ray Guy and Lester Hayes, who reached the end of their 20 years of eligibility and now enter the pool for senior candidates) :

Jerome Bettis, RB – 1993-95 Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams, 1996-2005 Pittsburgh Steelers
Tim Brown, WR/KR – 1988-2003 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders, 2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cris Carter, WR – 1987-89 Philadelphia Eagles, 1990-2001 Minnesota Vikings, 2002 Miami Dolphins
Don Coryell, Coach – 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers
Roger Craig, RB – 1983-1990 San Francisco 49ers, 1991 Los Angeles Raiders, 1992-93 Minnesota Vikings
Terrell Davis, RB – 1995-2001 Denver Broncos
Dermontti Dawson, C – 1988-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers
Edward DeBartolo, Jr., Owner – 1977-2000 San Francisco 49ers
Chris Doleman, DE/LB – 1985-1993, 1999 Minnesota Vikings, 1994-95 Atlanta Falcons, 1996-98 San Francisco 49ers
Kevin Greene, LB/DE – 1985-1992 Los Angeles Rams, 1993-95 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1996, 1998-99 Carolina Panthers, 1997 San Francisco 49ers
Charles Haley, DE/LB – 1986-1991, 1999 San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96 Dallas Cowboys
Cortez Kennedy, DT – 1990-2000 Seattle Seahawks
Curtis Martin, RB – 1995-97 New England Patriots, 1998-2005 New York Jets
Art Modell, Owner – 1961-1995 Cleveland Browns, 1996-2003 Baltimore Ravens
Andre Reed, WR – 1985-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins
Willie Roaf, T – 1993-2001 New Orleans Saints, 2002-05 Kansas City Chiefs
Paul Tagliabue, Commissioner – 1989-2006 National Football League
Aeneas Williams, CB/S – 1991-2000 Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals, 2001-04 St. Louis Rams
George Young, Contributor – 1968-1974 Baltimore Colts, 1975-78 Miami Dolphins, 1979-1997 New York Giants, 1998-2001 National Football League

If we assume all of the remaining names on the list make it again, that leaves six new semifinalist spots (there were 26 semifinalists last year, as there was a tie for the last spot).  There are a few names that I’m not 100% convinced will make the semifinalist list again this year—namely Don Coryell, Art Modell and Paul Tagliabue (not saying they shouldn’t just not sure if they will), but for our purposes here we will assume they do.

Of the list of names that are eligible for the first time this year, there isn’t a lot of Hall of Fame caliber talent out there—guard Will Shields, quarterback Drew Bledsoe, and coaches Bill Parcells and Bill Cowher seem like the most likely, followed by running back Tiki Barber, and wide receivers Keyshawn Johnson and Rod Smith.  We’ll guess that Shields, Parcells and Cowher make the semifinalist list, and the rest are left off.

That leaves three spots for previously eligibles that have never been semifinalists. Anyone from this list is going to be somewhat controversial, so we’ll pick three—quarterback Phil Simms, center Kent Hull, and defensive end Ed “Too Tall” Jones.  Others I considered tagging—Ron Wolf, Darren Woodson, LeRoy Butler, Jimmy Johnson and Tony Boselli.  Anyone from this group is unlikely to make it to the finalists list.

So, last year’s finalists seem like the most likely to move on the finalist list:

Jerome Bettis, 2011 finalist
Tim Brown, 2011 finalist
Cris Carter, 2011 finalist
Dermontti Dawson, 2011 finalist
Chris Doleman, 2011 finalist
Charles Haley, 2011 finalist
Cortez Kennedy, 2011 finalist
Curtis Martin, 2011 finalist
Andre Reed, 2011 finalist
Willie Roaf, 2011 finalist

Then we’ve got to find five more names to add to the list of finalists—our guesses:

Will Shields
Bill Parcells
Bill Cowher
Terrell Davis
Kevin Greene

This leaves Aeneas Williams (who we predicted as a finalist last year), Paul Tagliabue, George Young, Don Coryell, Roger Craig, Art Modell, Edward DeBartolo, Jr., Phil Simms, Ed Jones and kent Hull on the outside looking in.

Looking at the final five, I believe Cris Carter should be the first wide receiver of the big three currently considered by some to be long overdue for induction, with Tim Brown following and Andre Reed taking the third spot. However, with the voters, it appears as though Reed is first in line – he made the finals while Brown and Carter were both eliminated heading into the round of 10.

As far as running backs go, I think Curtis Martin should go in ahead of Jerome Bettis, but they’re neck and neck—although Martin made the final 10 last year, and Bettis didn’t.  Terrell Davis still remains a long shot to make the hall, in our opinion, and definitely won’t make it until the latter half of this decade if he does.

One of Dermontti Dawson and Willie Roaf almost certainly has to get in during the 2012 voting, and both made the final 10 last year. Will Shields is the strongest first-year candidate and he’ll eventually get in, I would guess, but even as strong of a candidate as he is, I doubt the voters put him in before Dawson and Roaf get their due, especially since Shields was a guard.

The defensive logjam is a lot murkier to predict. Cortez Kennedy was the lone defensive guy to make the final 10 and not get inducted last year—but can he make the leap? One of Haley or Doleman will probably make the top 10 this year—Doleman had the better stats, but Haley has the Super Bowl rings. I’m not sure either can get past Kennedy, even though he’s got the weakest stats of the three (although the strongest postseason awards profile, with 3 All-Pro’s and 8 Pro Bowls, vs. 2-8 for Doleman and 2-5 for Haley).

On the coaching front, either of the two Bill’s probably could stake a claim to being a first year inductee—Parcells has two Super Bowl wins (in three appearances) to Cowher’s one (in two appearances), but Cowher has the better winning percentage and more division championships (9 vs. 8), despite being a head coach for 4 fewer years (15 seasons to 19 seasons).  Parcells biggest drawback might be the fact he kept getting back into coaching, after already being nearly eligible before—Cowher’s biggest drawback might be that no one seems to believe he is done.

So, here’s our shot in the dark look at 2012, which promises to be another large class:

C Dermontti Dawson – We’ve been putting him on our final list for at least the last two years, and will continue to put him here until the Hall of Fame voters get it right.

T Willie Roaf – Getting two offensive linemen in might be a tall order, but there are a bunch more coming down the road (Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, Larry Allen, Walter Jones)

WR Andre Reed – Same argument could be made that they want to clear up the WR logjam (Reed, Carter, Brown), but I see two offensive lineman that played different positions as more likely than two WR of the same era.

RB Curtis Martin – Barely missed the cut last year, and gets the nod this year.

Coach Bill Parcells – I’m not convinced Cowher is done coaching either, but I think the Tuna has finally hung it up for good, and I think he gets his due.

As always, let us know what you think in the comments!