Andy’s fantasy advice for week one.

Locks:

Quarterback: Philip Rivers, SD vs MN – Kevin Williams will miss the game for Minnesota, which will hamper the Vikings’ defense against the run and its pass rush. Meanwhile Minnesota’s secondary remains a work in progress, at best. Antoine Winfield will be solid, but the team needs a contribution from Chris Cook and Cedric Griffin at cornerback. Both are coming off knee injuries. And the safety position remains a concern. Expect Rivers to get out of the gate in 2011 with a big game.

Running back: Steven Jackson, St. L vs PHI – Philadelphia will debut its cornerback trio against an improving quarterback in Sam Bradford. But Bradford lacks any star power at wide receiver. And teams will have to run the ball against the Eagles to have any chance of making the passing game work. I don’t love Jackson’s prospects for the entire season but I think he gets off to a solid start in Sunday’s home opener, as the Rams try to live up to growing expectations in 2011.

Wide receiver: DeSean Jackson, PHI vs St. L – St. Louis is improving and I expect the Rams to win the NFC West in 2011. That said, the team lost free safety OJ Atogwe in the offseason. Quintin Mikell is an adequate replacement but he’s still picking things up. That will create some vulnerability in the secondary, allowing Jackson and Mike Vick will hit on at least one long TD.

Sleeper:

RB – Willis McGahee, DEN vs Oak – John Fox debuts as head coach in Denver, bringing with him his running philosophies from Carolina. Knowshon Moreno will get more carries, but McGahee will have an instrumental role in short yardage and at the goal line. Oakland gave up the eighth most fantasy points to running backs last season and I don’t see the defense getting a ton better right away. Expect McGahee to snipe one at the stripe.

Bust:

WR – Dwayne Bowe, KC vs BUF – Dwayne Bowe had an incredible 2010 season. And while Buffalo would look to be one of the easier games on the Chiefs’ schedule this year, the Bills were not half bad against the pass. Particularly if Tyler Palko is pressed into duty due to Matt Cassel’s ailing ribs, the Chiefs will rely on the running of Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones and possibly Dexter McCluster to take it to Buffalo. It will be tough for Bowe to duplicate what he did a year ago as it is. With these factors working against him, his week one performance will be pedestrian at best.